mfd101

TIT

Wow! Clever move. Will it change anything? Well, it at least puts some new cards on the table. Watch this space!

Entirely unpredictable at this stage. Could be confined to BKK: action elsewhere won't affect the senators & the authoritarians much. Any protest activity could turn violent but it will be ineffective if not well-planned. Needs action with military precision and including bringing the lower ranks of the army onside, in & around BKK ... Needs to choose targets carefully - airports, individuals & their homes & other known assets ... Probably beyond Thai capabilities to organize, but who knows?

Petty bureaucrats require complexity to justify their existence. The harder it is the more important they feel.

Hope this is a sign of a VERY widespread effort to follow, particularly in Bangkok.

The abstentions yesterday were all counted as 'Nos'. Add up the figures! You have to get 376 votes to win, come what may. So if only 300 people turn up and they all vote for you, you still lose.

Interesting concept of 'counting votes': If I 'abstain' - for whatever reason, good or bad - my vote counts as a No. Perhaps unique in the world. Thai dinosaurs could conduct sociology research institute lessons in The New Mathematics of Democracy.

Yes, it's not a good start to a new democracy to have the new government lying about their intentions. Better to be upfront and allow time to build your case. As it will for MFP (or whatever its new incarnation calls itself after the dinosaurs have MFP banned).

Yes, I've just seen that too in a Bangkok Post article. It means that the senators (and non-coalition MPs) can prevent any useful voting by simply abstaining. That would be the way to elicit a second candidate from a favoured source ...

It is said Pita needs 376 out of 250 + 500. But what if - as is being suggested - most of the senators abstain and so do many of the non-coalition MPs? If the 312 coalition votes are all he gets but that's a majority of those who actually vote, does that get him over the line?

I fear you are probably right. Although - on reflection - not necessarily bad. MFP would still be the largest party in a PTP-led government, it could thus greatly influence decision-making including through its share of ministerial positions. It would also continue on its sharp learning curve for the next election ... Not necessarily a bad outcome, though it would be a sad loss to the country if its bright young leader (all too fluent though still a bit wet behind the ears) could not be part of all of that. Ditto for Thanathorn.

Vote is (or was as of a couple of days ago) scheduled for 1700.

Being a true believer is not in itself a virtue. Usofa is full of nutcases, all of them true believers in something or other that a reasonable human being would find ridiculous or appalling.

The oligarchs mostly don't carry a gun (metaphorically speaking).

I wonder whether the coalition members (300+) have a contingency plan for tonight, after the vote ... eg mass walkout & refusal to attend Parliament again until Pita has the all-clear from the CC. Or is that not machiavellian enough to cope with Thai machinations?

From great joy a month ago - hope for a better future for Thailand and all my dirt-poor Khmer family and all the peasants of Isaan, and now this. Fingers crossed. Praying - but only metaphorically - for a miracle.

Yes, good points. I will bare in mind for next year. Thanks

More likely that a future MFP/PTP government is looking less and less likely ...

The 'website down' problem has certainly occurred at a very convenient moment for the plotting dinosaurs! ("Keep The People ignorant & confused! That way we can do whatever we like.")

Cowards & corrupt as - sadly - they have long been.

Hope you're right.

How f/g depressing!

Not a problem if your health cover is Thai-based, as mine is (PC). Though of course Thai-based brings a different set of issues ... We live in an imperfect world.

As always, scams work only because the victims are greedy.

Yes, no matter what regime I'm on - OA, O or LTR - I still at my age need & want the same highish level of insurance cover. Which means there's no point - for me - in going through the rigmarole of changing from OA to O. As to the LTR & variants, I keep them in mind but am a bit sceptical of the benefits and of long-term financial commitments within the Thai cultural & political bubble.