jas007

My guess is that not many negligence lawsuits succeed in Thailand over wet floors and the like. Have you ever seen the city sidewalks? The rule seems to be that you should watch where you're walking. If you trip over a hole or a piece or rebar sticking out of the ground, you should have been paying attention.

Why does the US need rare earths instantly? Why not just wait for China to fold? It might not take that long, and the rare earths couldn't be produced instantly, in any event. The situation in China isn't getting any better, and if they think they can outlast Trump, they should probably think again. Trump isn't about to admit defeat at this early stage. His reason for existence at this point is to "Make America Great Again." He's the President and he has a mandate, despite what the propaganda outlets want the world to think.

I'm not "chickening out" of anything. The guys either doesn't want to listen, can't comprehend, or is just trying to annoy me. Maybe all three. He doesn't understand market dynamics. For example, imagine everyone watched, in slow motion, as a bowling ball was dropped out of a skyscraper window and plunged down 50 stories until it smashed some guy in the head, splattering his brains all over the sidewalk. Mr. Placeholder wants to argue that "gravity" caused the guy's brain to be splattered all over the sidewalk. Well, gee. In my world, that goes without saying. We don't have to dig up Issac Newton to argue about the law of universal gravitation. So if I've been less than clear on occasion, it's because I skip over the obvious to address the real issues. Who threw the bowling ball out the window? Why did he throw the bowling ball out the window? Is he going to throw any more? Will he be caught? When? Will people avoid that sidewalk for at least a while? How will foot traffic on the other side of the street be affected? Anyone wanting to understand the complexities the situation should probably consider moving beyond the fact that "gravity" caused the guy's death.

I don't think you understood a word I've written. As I've said numerous times, the US dollar does not exist in a vacuum. Try to wrap your head around that. Let's assume the market's knee-jerk reaction to Trump's tariffs caused the dollar to drop. Fine, I have no problem with that, but you must also address the question of WHY. Why would the dollar drop? Unless you ask that question, you might as well not even think about the markets or finance. You're in over your head. No one factor controls. Everyone except you seems to know that. It's fundamental. So fundamental it goes without saying in financial and banking circles. Nonetheless, it's safe to assume that the dollar drop was a result of capital outflow from the US to other areas of the world, to other assets. Gold, foreign stocks, foreign bonds, foreign real estate, and so on. And why would that happen? Fear that Trump's tariffs would cause US inflation to a point of big trouble. More inflation, more inflation. Pretty soon the bond market cracks, credit freezes up, and the Fed has no choice but to step in, buy bonds, and lower rates. More money printing, in other words. So it's that fear that caused a drop in the dollar as much as anything. And don't forget, the bond market is already in big trouble and Trump has made no secret of the act that he wants lower interest rates. Also, you have to consider geopolitical and macroeconomic factors. The rest of the world is intractably connected to both the system of Western central banks, the US economy, and the word reserve currency, the US dollar. So, while there may have been a short term knee-jerk reaction that sent the dollar lower, the system will slowly adjust to achieve some sort of equilibrium. Or at least that will be the direction. Perhaps movement away from US hegemony, but that kind of move doesn't happen overnight. And never forget, every central bank in the world is now playing the same game, with a fiat currency. Whether it's the Yen, the Euro, the Pound, or the Chinese Yuan, they all play the same game. Even the Russian Ruble will be affected, as Putin recently admitted. Borrow and spend. If you don't do that, it's eventually game over. So it's a "race to the bottom" of the currency markets. Cheaper currencies benefit corporations in the home country, which can give them a competitive advantage. And who doesn't want a competitive advantage? How does it all play out, long term? That's the question you should be asking, and the answer to that question is more complex than you seem to think. Everything is in play at once and everything matters.

I'm not going to waste much time answering you. All you're doing is trying to aggravate me, and no one could be that stupid.

I can't figure out if you're intentionally being stupid, or not. You seem to think the system is static, and that there's no interconnection between interest rates, inflation, currency valuations, and so on. It's all related. It's a fluid system. Dynamic. In continual motion. You can't look at any one component without considering the whole. Politics, economics. It's all intertwined, and none of it is a "science." It's not like you can make an equation that will answer every question. The word is too complex for that. As for QE? Personally, I think it's the opposite of what should happen. On the other hand, I don't have anything to say about any of it. I'm an observer, just trying to appreciate what's going on so I can stay out of the way of the damage as much as possible, and make as much money as possible. And for what it's worth, I'm not sure you understand the financial markets or the banking system or how the Fed operates. Not that I'm the expert. Far from it. But I understand the complexities and the issues involved. Recognizing the issues is the first step towards putting the pieces together.

You keep repeating the same nonsense, as if that makes it true. If you look, you can find what a congressional committee found when assessing the problem: The money poured into the system during COVID found its way into the real economy once COVID ended. And in the real economy? Covid-related supply shortages coupled with all the fiscal and monetary stimulus let to inflationary pressures. Post COVID, the demand was there, but supplies were not in some segments of the economy. The result: inflation. Remember, pre-COVID, QE type money stayed largely in the banking system, bolstering bank reserves. But credit was tighter then and consumers were already pretty much tapped out. Not so, post COVID.

My point was that if your home currency is not the US dollar and you want to convert that currency to some other currency that's also not the US dollar, then, like it or not, you're using the dollar as a necessary part of the transaction and, as such, you're supporting the dollar and in the process, weakening the price of gold in your home currency. So yes, you may be ahead of the game once the transaction is completed and at some later date, but at the same time, you've helped support the dollar.

Political theater. And apparently, you fell for it. If necessary, the Fed will step in to prevent a credit freeze. Fed officials have publicly stated as much on recent occasions. Just the other day, one of the Fed governors said so, on the record. I could look it up, but I'm sure you can find it. Trump may be posturing for an immediate lowering of interest rates, but it's all a great game. Don't forget the context. Trump ran on a promise of a strong dollar and the maintenance of the US dollar as the world reserve currency. Is that posture compatible with a lowering of interest rates and the continued destruction of the dollar? Of course not. So they play a game. Powell pretends to care, Tump pretends to be outraged, and the media propaganda machine runs with the story, gleefully proclaiming that Trump is failing. And yet no one stops to ask what happens if he does fail. The reality is a different matter entirely. Given the current macroeconomic environment, the recent capital outflows from the US markets, including the stock and bond markets, Trump won't have to wait too long for his interest rate cuts. Either the Fed steps in and buys it all, as necessary, or, the market freezes up and the world economy crashes. And if you think the Fed will choose the later option, I have to ask, what you're smoking? It's not going to happen. Of course, there is a breaking point. Lowering interest rates and printing money only works until such time as it doesn't. And then it's game over. You don't want to be around when that happens, especially if you live in a civilized Western nation.

Almost 90% of the world's currency transactions are performed with the US dollar as a "delivery vehicle," Foreign currency gos in, is converted to US dollars for the transaction, and the transaction is completed. So like it or not, when you're buying fold in a home currency that's not the US dollar, then, like it or not, you're supporting the dollar.

I remember when the COVID thing started and Moderna started trading. Even by April 2020, it was trading in the $50 range. I saw that, but I figured Wall Street had already priced in the nonsense. Nope. Look at the chart. It went all the way up to $448 or so. Now it's back down to $25. Lots of opportunities back then for anyone who realized how much money the government was going to pump into the markets and the economy, and how crazy it could get. I ended up just doing a lot of trading every day. I never held anything overnight and normally, I didn't hold a stock longer than about five minutes.

I hope you're right. If you are, then this thing will be over soon, because China will fold.

Just in case you don't realize it. No serious person on here who knows anything about China believes the nonsense you post. You and your buddy take turns giving each otherTrophy awards, but really. No one believe that millions of middle class Chinese can't access the Internet. There's only one word for what you post: Amateur.

I disagree. And I think you know the truth. People all over China have access to the real Internet via VPNs. They know what's what. I've seen the videos coming out of China. The people out of work and homeless. The shops closed in major cities. The idle factories, waiting for work. People seem desperate, and it didn't look like acting to me. And it's no big secret about the failing real estate market, people's inability to sell their houses or condos for anywhere near what they paid, and the government's takeover of much of the mortgage banking business. And look at how the Chinese currency has dropped. Is that propaganda, too?

I agree, it's none of my business and I really don't care one way or the other until WWIII starts and we all have a very bad day. Nuclear war will result and escalate, and then that will be that. So, in that sense, yes, it is my business. Of course, I can't do much about it except sit back and watch. As for the US folding first, in economic terms? I think you're the one who is brainwashed. Either that, or you're trying to gaslight people on this board. Anyway, we can sit back, grab some popcorn, and wait. One way or the other, it will be over sooner than you seem to think.

That's my fear. Xi starts a war over Taiwan. I'm not at all worried about the market dynamics at play here. China will fold first. They're weaker than people have been programed to believe. What I am worried about is what China might do before giving up. Analysts think that China will easily win any war with the USA that occurs in China's neighborhood. The US military is already stretched thin. Much of the US stockpile of certain weapons and munitions went to Ukraine and can't be quickly replaced. And to make matters more complicated, Trump has another conflict in the works in the Middle East, a conflict which could involve not only Iran, but Russia and China as well. Three wars going on at the same time? The outcome would not be good, and I think both China and Russia realize that fact. Before long, we could see WWIII. That's what should worry everyone.

The trade wars are just beginning to ramp up, and that data is supposedly from the first quarter. So, it's hardly a good indicator. Secondly, like the US, I'm sure China is adept at massaging numbers to look better than they actually are. Maybe they took lessons from the Biden team. All things considered, I wouldn't put too much store in that report. I know that might be disappointing to those with an agenda to make Trump look bad and China stronger than it really is, but I digress.

As I've said, you have to take it all with a grain of salt, so to speak. If he seems weird, or aloof, or cruel, or nasty, or whatever else you might think, maybe he's just not aware. Maybe he doesn't really mean to come across that way. Anyway, I look at his accomplishments and judge him by those. Everything else deserves a bit of understanding, I think.

Other than Trump's pronouncements, I haven't really followed it that closely. We'll see what happens. I'm sure Trump wants to resolve the matter.

If this is part of the same story I'm thinking about, there may be some movement on the part of China. Some willingness to negotiate. China fired it's last negotiator and appointed a new guy to the position, someone seen to be more connected to the diplomatic community, more receptive to compromise, and perhaps willing to do so on behalf of Xi and China. The new negotiator has back channel access to Washington, and negotiations may be currently ongoing. At least that's the view of some. In any event, once this was announced last night, the stock market came off its lows and began to rise. A coincidence? Or did China just blink? The market seems to think so, at least to a degree.

Musk has Asperger's Syndrome. At least that's what he said when he hosted Saturday Night Live. A now somewhat outdated term, the current thinking seems to be that it's a condition that belongs somewhere on the Autism scale. An Autism Spectrum Disorder. In any event, it's a cheap shot to criticize Musk without making some effort to understand the condition and how it can affect a person's perception of the world, his ability to focus and achieve, and how he interacts with others on every level. One time I had to look into Asperger's for a case I was working on. Each individual is different, of course, but a common thread seems to be that the individual has average or above average intelligence, among other characteristics. You should probably look it up. And once you do that, you might be able to understand Musk, his apparent social awkwardness, and the apparent disparity between his achievements and what you characterize as a "small man."

A red herring? I don't think so. Powell says what he says for public consumption. He has to at least appear to be doing his job. Privately, it's another matter. Fed officials have made no secret about it - they will step in, if necessary, to support the bond market in the case of an impending crackup. In other words, the Fed put is there, as always. Trump doesn't need to cajole Powell into lowering interest rates. They'll do it gladly, when the time comes. And that means Trump has free reign to do what he wants, if he can stay away from the Wall Street people who are there to keep him inbounds. Don't think the outcome is a forgone conclusion at this point. That's what makes Trump so "dangerous." Nobody knows what he'll do next. He seems to think that's a good negotiating tactic. I remember Trump was once explaining certain foreign policy negotiations that occurred during his first term, when he brought along the Neocon, John Bolton. People on the other side of the table didn't know what to think. Negotiate with Trump, or risk the crazy Neocon? The uncertainty worked in Trump's favor.

That's exactly what Trump wants them to do, right? Buy bonds and lower interest rates. Surely, that's what will happen. Fed officials have did as much, recently. They'll backstop the bond market. In the process, they make Trump happy. Jaime Dimon is a banker. That's his world. He thinks like a banker and my guess is he probably thinks the world reacts in a predictable way to certain forces. Currency fluctuations, geopolitics, trade imbalances, and so on. In normal times, it's all somewhat predictable. But, as you say, Trump goes "had in hand with chaos and destruction." Keep that in mind. He's the President and he doesn't seem to like China. You think Trump will fail. I'm not quite so sure. He may not waiver. To be sure, some of his top advisors are Wall Street guys. Will he listen to them? I think they're there for a reason, but how knows what Trump will do?

You may well be right. On the other hand, this is an unusual situation. We're not in normal times. Trump is the elected President of the USA. Whatever else he thinks, he seems to have it in for China. If he folds on this, he might as well pack his bags and go back to Mar-a-Lago. His presidency would be. over and I'm sure Florida has nice golf courses. No need to worry about the pesky economy for a while. As for Jaime Dimon? I'm sure he'd like to believe he has a crystal ball, but does he? As I've said, these aren't normal times and no one really knows how long it will take for the situation to turn into a "full-blown disaster." I do think, though, that we're all about to find out unless China folds. As for China's ability to "wait"? To be sure, Xi may think he has all the time in the world, but perhaps he doesn't. With all the propaganda flying around posing as "news," it's hard to know what's really happening in China. From what I see, their currency is at a low it hasn't seen in decades, their real estate market has collapsed, real estate lenders in China have been taken over by the government or are on life support, the Chinese middle class is suffering, businesses are shuttered, and once thriving cities are apparently now ghost towns. China, too, has the possibility of an economic collapse to contend with. In my mind, it boils down to the Fed's lasting power. Can they hold the bond market together, and for how long? Nobody knows the answer to that question, not even Jaime Dimon.

I think I've said this before, but again, that 15% figure is misleading. Let's assume the 15% figure is correct in terms of direct imports to the USA. Fine. But what that figure doesn't reflect is the extent to which China does business with suppliers outside the USA who may have some or all of their products destined for the USA. The world's supply chains are now international and cannot be easily untangled. Products are assembled with parts from all over. Just image the mess someone would have on their hands trying to trace every piece of every finished product and level tariffs accordingly. China cutting off the US is a dumb move. The US wouldn't be the only "victim." All around the world, business would suffer, consumers would suffer, and with them China's remaining customers. The world is already headed for bad times, and, or all practical purposes, China is a big factory that's already running well below capacity. Stop the customers and you stop the factory and you shut down China.