jas007

Just in case you don't realize it. No serious person on here who knows anything about China believes the nonsense you post. You and your buddy take turns giving each otherTrophy awards, but really. No one believe that millions of middle class Chinese can't access the Internet. There's only one word for what you post: Amateur.

I disagree. And I think you know the truth. People all over China have access to the real Internet via VPNs. They know what's what. I've seen the videos coming out of China. The people out of work and homeless. The shops closed in major cities. The idle factories, waiting for work. People seem desperate, and it didn't look like acting to me. And it's no big secret about the failing real estate market, people's inability to sell their houses or condos for anywhere near what they paid, and the government's takeover of much of the mortgage banking business. And look at how the Chinese currency has dropped. Is that propaganda, too?

I agree, it's none of my business and I really don't care one way or the other until WWIII starts and we all have a very bad day. Nuclear war will result and escalate, and then that will be that. So, in that sense, yes, it is my business. Of course, I can't do much about it except sit back and watch. As for the US folding first, in economic terms? I think you're the one who is brainwashed. Either that, or you're trying to gaslight people on this board. Anyway, we can sit back, grab some popcorn, and wait. One way or the other, it will be over sooner than you seem to think.

That's my fear. Xi starts a war over Taiwan. I'm not at all worried about the market dynamics at play here. China will fold first. They're weaker than people have been programed to believe. What I am worried about is what China might do before giving up. Analysts think that China will easily win any war with the USA that occurs in China's neighborhood. The US military is already stretched thin. Much of the US stockpile of certain weapons and munitions went to Ukraine and can't be quickly replaced. And to make matters more complicated, Trump has another conflict in the works in the Middle East, a conflict which could involve not only Iran, but Russia and China as well. Three wars going on at the same time? The outcome would not be good, and I think both China and Russia realize that fact. Before long, we could see WWIII. That's what should worry everyone.

The trade wars are just beginning to ramp up, and that data is supposedly from the first quarter. So, it's hardly a good indicator. Secondly, like the US, I'm sure China is adept at massaging numbers to look better than they actually are. Maybe they took lessons from the Biden team. All things considered, I wouldn't put too much store in that report. I know that might be disappointing to those with an agenda to make Trump look bad and China stronger than it really is, but I digress.

As I've said, you have to take it all with a grain of salt, so to speak. If he seems weird, or aloof, or cruel, or nasty, or whatever else you might think, maybe he's just not aware. Maybe he doesn't really mean to come across that way. Anyway, I look at his accomplishments and judge him by those. Everything else deserves a bit of understanding, I think.

Other than Trump's pronouncements, I haven't really followed it that closely. We'll see what happens. I'm sure Trump wants to resolve the matter.

If this is part of the same story I'm thinking about, there may be some movement on the part of China. Some willingness to negotiate. China fired it's last negotiator and appointed a new guy to the position, someone seen to be more connected to the diplomatic community, more receptive to compromise, and perhaps willing to do so on behalf of Xi and China. The new negotiator has back channel access to Washington, and negotiations may be currently ongoing. At least that's the view of some. In any event, once this was announced last night, the stock market came off its lows and began to rise. A coincidence? Or did China just blink? The market seems to think so, at least to a degree.

Musk has Asperger's Syndrome. At least that's what he said when he hosted Saturday Night Live. A now somewhat outdated term, the current thinking seems to be that it's a condition that belongs somewhere on the Autism scale. An Autism Spectrum Disorder. In any event, it's a cheap shot to criticize Musk without making some effort to understand the condition and how it can affect a person's perception of the world, his ability to focus and achieve, and how he interacts with others on every level. One time I had to look into Asperger's for a case I was working on. Each individual is different, of course, but a common thread seems to be that the individual has average or above average intelligence, among other characteristics. You should probably look it up. And once you do that, you might be able to understand Musk, his apparent social awkwardness, and the apparent disparity between his achievements and what you characterize as a "small man."

A red herring? I don't think so. Powell says what he says for public consumption. He has to at least appear to be doing his job. Privately, it's another matter. Fed officials have made no secret about it - they will step in, if necessary, to support the bond market in the case of an impending crackup. In other words, the Fed put is there, as always. Trump doesn't need to cajole Powell into lowering interest rates. They'll do it gladly, when the time comes. And that means Trump has free reign to do what he wants, if he can stay away from the Wall Street people who are there to keep him inbounds. Don't think the outcome is a forgone conclusion at this point. That's what makes Trump so "dangerous." Nobody knows what he'll do next. He seems to think that's a good negotiating tactic. I remember Trump was once explaining certain foreign policy negotiations that occurred during his first term, when he brought along the Neocon, John Bolton. People on the other side of the table didn't know what to think. Negotiate with Trump, or risk the crazy Neocon? The uncertainty worked in Trump's favor.

That's exactly what Trump wants them to do, right? Buy bonds and lower interest rates. Surely, that's what will happen. Fed officials have did as much, recently. They'll backstop the bond market. In the process, they make Trump happy. Jaime Dimon is a banker. That's his world. He thinks like a banker and my guess is he probably thinks the world reacts in a predictable way to certain forces. Currency fluctuations, geopolitics, trade imbalances, and so on. In normal times, it's all somewhat predictable. But, as you say, Trump goes "had in hand with chaos and destruction." Keep that in mind. He's the President and he doesn't seem to like China. You think Trump will fail. I'm not quite so sure. He may not waiver. To be sure, some of his top advisors are Wall Street guys. Will he listen to them? I think they're there for a reason, but how knows what Trump will do?

You may well be right. On the other hand, this is an unusual situation. We're not in normal times. Trump is the elected President of the USA. Whatever else he thinks, he seems to have it in for China. If he folds on this, he might as well pack his bags and go back to Mar-a-Lago. His presidency would be. over and I'm sure Florida has nice golf courses. No need to worry about the pesky economy for a while. As for Jaime Dimon? I'm sure he'd like to believe he has a crystal ball, but does he? As I've said, these aren't normal times and no one really knows how long it will take for the situation to turn into a "full-blown disaster." I do think, though, that we're all about to find out unless China folds. As for China's ability to "wait"? To be sure, Xi may think he has all the time in the world, but perhaps he doesn't. With all the propaganda flying around posing as "news," it's hard to know what's really happening in China. From what I see, their currency is at a low it hasn't seen in decades, their real estate market has collapsed, real estate lenders in China have been taken over by the government or are on life support, the Chinese middle class is suffering, businesses are shuttered, and once thriving cities are apparently now ghost towns. China, too, has the possibility of an economic collapse to contend with. In my mind, it boils down to the Fed's lasting power. Can they hold the bond market together, and for how long? Nobody knows the answer to that question, not even Jaime Dimon.

I think I've said this before, but again, that 15% figure is misleading. Let's assume the 15% figure is correct in terms of direct imports to the USA. Fine. But what that figure doesn't reflect is the extent to which China does business with suppliers outside the USA who may have some or all of their products destined for the USA. The world's supply chains are now international and cannot be easily untangled. Products are assembled with parts from all over. Just image the mess someone would have on their hands trying to trace every piece of every finished product and level tariffs accordingly. China cutting off the US is a dumb move. The US wouldn't be the only "victim." All around the world, business would suffer, consumers would suffer, and with them China's remaining customers. The world is already headed for bad times, and, or all practical purposes, China is a big factory that's already running well below capacity. Stop the customers and you stop the factory and you shut down China.

I agree with most of that you say, but I also think none of that matters right now. China is the one thing that Trump won't fold on. At least not until he has to, and I think the US Fed has enough firepower to hold on until China folds. People who think that China is "adapting and moving on" are part of the same crowd that has been brainwashed by the mainstream propaganda machine operating around the world. China is in worse shape than you seem to think. Their economy is highly dependent on the US consumer and on consumers around the world. But the key is the US consumer. China cannot "move on" without the United States and its consumers. As for consumers in the rest of the world? They, too, don't live in a vacuum. Most of their economies are on life support and in much worse shape than the USA. Germany is headed for bankruptcy. The UK is broke. France is a mess. Japan is in trouble as well. In other words, the EU is already dead in the water and Japan doesn't have enough consumers to make much of a difference, given their economy. And never forget, the entire world runs on US dollars, a currency which cannot be replaced anytime soon. So, despite the Chicken Littles, the sky is not falling. China has a weak hand. You really don't want to find out what happens if Trump folds because of a bond market collapse.

Jeez.... And how, exactly, will the bond market freeze up? Because of interest rates that are too high. One thing causes the other. It doesn't get any simpler than that. I thought everyone realized that's how it works. I guess not. In any event, at some point, and no one yet knows what that point will be, the Fed will no longer be able to control what's happening. At current exchange rates, it would take about 41 trillion dollars to buy the US bond market. All of it. Of course, there are derivatives, which is another matter which adds another dimension entirely, and not in a good way, but even if we stick to the actual bond market, it's easy to see the problem. As the dollar weakens with increased borrowing and a loss of confidence in the dollar, the amount of dollars necessary to "buy it all" increases. Do you understand? It's not a static situation. It's fluid, and it's just a question of how long it takes. Can the Fed hold out until China folds? My bet is yes, unless China goes to war in an act of desperation.

I think that's the point. Everyone knows what's going on, but in the real world, what's the alternative? Short term, the rest of the world can throw a fit. Or at least that's what the propaganda machine wants us to think, and that this fit will somehow force Trump's hand or wreck the bond market to a point where it collapses. But, despite Powell's public pronouncements, the Fed has Trump's back. Or rather, the Fed will step in to "buy it all" if the bond market freezes up. They've said as much on more than one occasion. So it's a question of whether the US Fed has the strength to outlast China's posturing. China is desperate. And despite what the propaganda machine wants everyone to think, they are already in trouble, politically and economically. This nonsense will be over before you know it. All bets are off if China goes to war. I guess that'a district possibility.

Boeing stock: first, the damage has been done, I think. It was at these levels during COVID, down substantially from its all time high. And for what it's worth, it still might be an excellent stock to trade, for anyone interested in making some easy money every day. Back then, the COVID lockdowns were on and I was stuck in the US with not much to do. Scalping Boeing stock was easy money. Buy 1000 shares, a minute later sell 1000 shares and you could be done for the day, or not, depending. Actually, it was bouncing around so much you'd sometimes only have to hold it for 30 seconds. As for the current stand-off Trump has with China? This Boeing thing is a non-event. The entire situation will be resolved long before Chinese deliveries will have any appreciable long term impact on Boeing stock or its bottom line. I see China's move as an act of desperation. They think they're hurting America, when all they're really doing is showing a weak hand.

For the OP: I've never ben a young backpacker in Thailand. In my early 20s I was in the US Army and the Vietnam war was still a thing. One thing I do remember vividly is talking to some guy who had been stationed in Thailand but had rotated back to the states. Listening to him talk, you'd think being stationed in Thailand was like dying and going to heaven. He must have had the time of his life. I can imagine. Anyway, fast forward a few decades and by the time I took my first trip to Thailand, I was in my late 40s and I wasn't a "two week millionaire." I was a "30 day millionaire." First stop: the JW Marriott on Sukhumvit Soi 2. I could appreciate the backpackers and those traveling on a budget, though. But back then, I didn't know enough about the country to feel comfortable being anything other than a tourist on vacation. Has Thailand changed over the years? Undoubtedly. But there's always somewhere, right? Maybe some of the old tourist areas have now transformed and aren't what they used to be. That's life. But I'm sure there are areas of Thailand that haven't changed much in decades. All you have to do is explore. Do some research. You can't do much about the attitude of Thai officials at immigration. They have rules to follow. But why not get a retirement visa and stay in Thailand? Life would be much simpler. And if for any reason you still think Thailand is no longer for you, maybe try another country. Cambodia? Or maybe somewhere outside of SE. Asia entirely.

I'm sure they're following their conscience. Rightly or wrongly, they apparently thought that certain of their duties were unconstitutional.

Unlawful is one thing. Supporting the boss's position is something else again. As a practical matter, you support the administration's positions. In any event, that oath isn't just for members of the President's cabinet. Go join the US Army and you'll take the same oath.

The man is doing his job, just like every Cabinet member. You join the team and it's your job to support the President's agenda. Whether he actually believes it all is another matter. You'd be hard pressed to find any individual in government who doesn't have private beliefs that differ from their public posture.

This kind nonsense never ceases to amaze me. Where do these idiots come from? Where were they raised? Can you really just write it off to being drunk? I don't think so.

Why even spend time worrying about it? Does it matter?

The Central Banks of the world poured trillions into the world economy during QE, primarily the US Fed. Everyone should know that by now. A lonely position? LOL. Maybe you're just being facetious? And the dollar is sinking in value because of inflation. Increase the money supply and that's the very definition of inflation. We won't get into what measure of money supply. There are several. As for other currencies rising in relation to the dollar? A temporary phenomena, for sure, but not all currencies act the same. At this point, it's as much as a macroeconomic/political reaction to Trump and his on again off again tariffs. That and his stated goal of a cheaper dollar and lower interest rates which can be accomplished when the Fed buys bonds to prevent a credit freeze. He's not making any secret of what he wants to do. In any event, don't think for a minute that the US Fed is alone in its depreciation of the currency. That's the name of the game all over the world. Inflation. The central banks buy bonds, thereby pumping "money" into the system, and that money has to be repaid with interest. Where does that extra money come from? More borrowing of course. It's a real racket. Create money out of thin air and then expect to be paid back, with interest. Mathematically, the problem compounds over time and eventually there's a problem. So, at present, the US and China are playing a game of chicken. Who blinks first? Can China cause a credit freeze in the bond market that the Fed can't handle, or can the US outlast the Chinese when their factories are closing and their workers are losing their jobs and their homes? What you're going to find out is that China blinks first. They're already on the verge of collapse. Without the US consumer, they're dead in the water.

I think you need to look at your chart again. That's not exactly what happened. Initially, interest rates remained low during the initial phase of that particular QE, as the Fed purchased bonds and tweaked the low end of the yield curve. In addition, they promised to maintain lower rates. But in the early part of 2022, inflation started to be a problem and they changed course. Today, interest rates are higher and they have some room to lower rates, but because of a weakening US dollar, that may be problematic for them. More and more dollars will be required to purchase bonds, and the increasing federal debt will further erode investor confidence. In other words, the US is in an inflationary environment. There's a tipping point when lowering rates it's no longer the smart thing to do. It's always a fluid situation, and the macroeconomic climate is now more important than ever.. In terms of Central Bank fiat currencies, it's a race to the bottom. Don't forget, this all occurs as Trump is trying to force China's hand. It's a matter of who blinks first, and once the China problem is solved for Trump, then the dollar dominance will reassert itself.