jas007

Not only that, but he seems to think that the current inflation in the US is because of Trump and his policies, when the destruction of the dollar's value dates back decades and decades. Today's consumer inflation in the USA is largely the result of huge inflows of cash into the economy during COVID and, following that, that wall of cash meeting shortages of many items because of supply chain constraints. So, pent up demand, lots of cash, and shortages of just about everything all created the high inflation. In any event, Trump is now calling for lower interest rates and a lower dollar, both of which would result in even more inflation, but all that is yet to come. Of course, there has been some blowback about the tariffs and that has weakened the dollar somewhat, but that's temporary and probably not structural, long term.

Sorry. I just assumed we were discussing actual wars. If China, Harvard, and the Supreme Court are the issues, I think all of those are up in the air, although I strongly suspect that China will back down and make an agreement with Trump on the tariffs. I haven't researched the Harvard matter or the issues involved, but if Trump is trying to treat Harvard any differently than other schools enrolling foreign students and so on, he may have a hard time with the Supreme Court, which is already questionable on some issues. In other cases, the Supreme Court may be more reluctant to wade into what might be a political question.

For all practical purposes, the Ukraine/Russia war is over, at least for the USA. Either Zelenskyy signs on to Trump's proposed deal or the USA walks away. And in any event, it's just a matter of time before Putin and Trump make an agreement. So this war isn't one that Trump will have to fight. The other two wars? Neither are "winnable" by the USA. I'm not sure Trump knows that, but he's certainly been told.

The Bretton Woods Conference in 1944 established the US dollar as the world reserve currency. By way of this agreement, the dollar was convertible into gold and was valued at $35 an ounce. By 1971, Nixon closed the gold window as the US gold reserves were being drained, and the era of fiat currency began. To this day, the dollar has remained the global reserve currency, although there is now movement towards a multipolar world.

Somehow, I see this story as a non-event. Currencies fluctuate. Whatever is going on now could easily go the other way at the drop of a hat. On my first trip to Thailand in 2000, I think I was getting a little over 38. In 2007? it dropped briefly below 30. A few years ago, in 2022, it briefly hit 38 again. Anyway, nothing in between 30 and 38 would surprise me.

Just out of curiosity, what makes an Aussie Burger and Aussie Burger? Just the fact that Australian beef is used? I'm in a condo and don't haver any kind of outdoor grilling facilities, so I don't make a lot of burgers. I do, however, sometimes buy some pre-made burgers from Tops Food Hall grocery store at Central Festival. Sloans has some good ones and there are a few other brands that are tasty. I sometimes have one of those burger patties for breakfast along with some eggs, instead of a rib-eye steak. In the US, I could go outside and make a good burger anytime I wanted. Ground chuck was good, with about 80% meat, 20% fat. Either on a charcoal grill or gas grill, they usually turned out good. And one time I tried some of this seasoning. Pretty good.

My guess is that not many negligence lawsuits succeed in Thailand over wet floors and the like. Have you ever seen the city sidewalks? The rule seems to be that you should watch where you're walking. If you trip over a hole or a piece or rebar sticking out of the ground, you should have been paying attention.

Why does the US need rare earths instantly? Why not just wait for China to fold? It might not take that long, and the rare earths couldn't be produced instantly, in any event. The situation in China isn't getting any better, and if they think they can outlast Trump, they should probably think again. Trump isn't about to admit defeat at this early stage. His reason for existence at this point is to "Make America Great Again." He's the President and he has a mandate, despite what the propaganda outlets want the world to think.

I'm not "chickening out" of anything. The guys either doesn't want to listen, can't comprehend, or is just trying to annoy me. Maybe all three. He doesn't understand market dynamics. For example, imagine everyone watched, in slow motion, as a bowling ball was dropped out of a skyscraper window and plunged down 50 stories until it smashed some guy in the head, splattering his brains all over the sidewalk. Mr. Placeholder wants to argue that "gravity" caused the guy's brain to be splattered all over the sidewalk. Well, gee. In my world, that goes without saying. We don't have to dig up Issac Newton to argue about the law of universal gravitation. So if I've been less than clear on occasion, it's because I skip over the obvious to address the real issues. Who threw the bowling ball out the window? Why did he throw the bowling ball out the window? Is he going to throw any more? Will he be caught? When? Will people avoid that sidewalk for at least a while? How will foot traffic on the other side of the street be affected? Anyone wanting to understand the complexities the situation should probably consider moving beyond the fact that "gravity" caused the guy's death.

I don't think you understood a word I've written. As I've said numerous times, the US dollar does not exist in a vacuum. Try to wrap your head around that. Let's assume the market's knee-jerk reaction to Trump's tariffs caused the dollar to drop. Fine, I have no problem with that, but you must also address the question of WHY. Why would the dollar drop? Unless you ask that question, you might as well not even think about the markets or finance. You're in over your head. No one factor controls. Everyone except you seems to know that. It's fundamental. So fundamental it goes without saying in financial and banking circles. Nonetheless, it's safe to assume that the dollar drop was a result of capital outflow from the US to other areas of the world, to other assets. Gold, foreign stocks, foreign bonds, foreign real estate, and so on. And why would that happen? Fear that Trump's tariffs would cause US inflation to a point of big trouble. More inflation, more inflation. Pretty soon the bond market cracks, credit freezes up, and the Fed has no choice but to step in, buy bonds, and lower rates. More money printing, in other words. So it's that fear that caused a drop in the dollar as much as anything. And don't forget, the bond market is already in big trouble and Trump has made no secret of the act that he wants lower interest rates. Also, you have to consider geopolitical and macroeconomic factors. The rest of the world is intractably connected to both the system of Western central banks, the US economy, and the word reserve currency, the US dollar. So, while there may have been a short term knee-jerk reaction that sent the dollar lower, the system will slowly adjust to achieve some sort of equilibrium. Or at least that will be the direction. Perhaps movement away from US hegemony, but that kind of move doesn't happen overnight. And never forget, every central bank in the world is now playing the same game, with a fiat currency. Whether it's the Yen, the Euro, the Pound, or the Chinese Yuan, they all play the same game. Even the Russian Ruble will be affected, as Putin recently admitted. Borrow and spend. If you don't do that, it's eventually game over. So it's a "race to the bottom" of the currency markets. Cheaper currencies benefit corporations in the home country, which can give them a competitive advantage. And who doesn't want a competitive advantage? How does it all play out, long term? That's the question you should be asking, and the answer to that question is more complex than you seem to think. Everything is in play at once and everything matters.

I'm not going to waste much time answering you. All you're doing is trying to aggravate me, and no one could be that stupid.

I can't figure out if you're intentionally being stupid, or not. You seem to think the system is static, and that there's no interconnection between interest rates, inflation, currency valuations, and so on. It's all related. It's a fluid system. Dynamic. In continual motion. You can't look at any one component without considering the whole. Politics, economics. It's all intertwined, and none of it is a "science." It's not like you can make an equation that will answer every question. The word is too complex for that. As for QE? Personally, I think it's the opposite of what should happen. On the other hand, I don't have anything to say about any of it. I'm an observer, just trying to appreciate what's going on so I can stay out of the way of the damage as much as possible, and make as much money as possible. And for what it's worth, I'm not sure you understand the financial markets or the banking system or how the Fed operates. Not that I'm the expert. Far from it. But I understand the complexities and the issues involved. Recognizing the issues is the first step towards putting the pieces together.

You keep repeating the same nonsense, as if that makes it true. If you look, you can find what a congressional committee found when assessing the problem: The money poured into the system during COVID found its way into the real economy once COVID ended. And in the real economy? Covid-related supply shortages coupled with all the fiscal and monetary stimulus let to inflationary pressures. Post COVID, the demand was there, but supplies were not in some segments of the economy. The result: inflation. Remember, pre-COVID, QE type money stayed largely in the banking system, bolstering bank reserves. But credit was tighter then and consumers were already pretty much tapped out. Not so, post COVID.

My point was that if your home currency is not the US dollar and you want to convert that currency to some other currency that's also not the US dollar, then, like it or not, you're using the dollar as a necessary part of the transaction and, as such, you're supporting the dollar and in the process, weakening the price of gold in your home currency. So yes, you may be ahead of the game once the transaction is completed and at some later date, but at the same time, you've helped support the dollar.

Political theater. And apparently, you fell for it. If necessary, the Fed will step in to prevent a credit freeze. Fed officials have publicly stated as much on recent occasions. Just the other day, one of the Fed governors said so, on the record. I could look it up, but I'm sure you can find it. Trump may be posturing for an immediate lowering of interest rates, but it's all a great game. Don't forget the context. Trump ran on a promise of a strong dollar and the maintenance of the US dollar as the world reserve currency. Is that posture compatible with a lowering of interest rates and the continued destruction of the dollar? Of course not. So they play a game. Powell pretends to care, Tump pretends to be outraged, and the media propaganda machine runs with the story, gleefully proclaiming that Trump is failing. And yet no one stops to ask what happens if he does fail. The reality is a different matter entirely. Given the current macroeconomic environment, the recent capital outflows from the US markets, including the stock and bond markets, Trump won't have to wait too long for his interest rate cuts. Either the Fed steps in and buys it all, as necessary, or, the market freezes up and the world economy crashes. And if you think the Fed will choose the later option, I have to ask, what you're smoking? It's not going to happen. Of course, there is a breaking point. Lowering interest rates and printing money only works until such time as it doesn't. And then it's game over. You don't want to be around when that happens, especially if you live in a civilized Western nation.

Almost 90% of the world's currency transactions are performed with the US dollar as a "delivery vehicle," Foreign currency gos in, is converted to US dollars for the transaction, and the transaction is completed. So like it or not, when you're buying fold in a home currency that's not the US dollar, then, like it or not, you're supporting the dollar.

I remember when the COVID thing started and Moderna started trading. Even by April 2020, it was trading in the $50 range. I saw that, but I figured Wall Street had already priced in the nonsense. Nope. Look at the chart. It went all the way up to $448 or so. Now it's back down to $25. Lots of opportunities back then for anyone who realized how much money the government was going to pump into the markets and the economy, and how crazy it could get. I ended up just doing a lot of trading every day. I never held anything overnight and normally, I didn't hold a stock longer than about five minutes.

I hope you're right. If you are, then this thing will be over soon, because China will fold.

Just in case you don't realize it. No serious person on here who knows anything about China believes the nonsense you post. You and your buddy take turns giving each otherTrophy awards, but really. No one believe that millions of middle class Chinese can't access the Internet. There's only one word for what you post: Amateur.

I disagree. And I think you know the truth. People all over China have access to the real Internet via VPNs. They know what's what. I've seen the videos coming out of China. The people out of work and homeless. The shops closed in major cities. The idle factories, waiting for work. People seem desperate, and it didn't look like acting to me. And it's no big secret about the failing real estate market, people's inability to sell their houses or condos for anywhere near what they paid, and the government's takeover of much of the mortgage banking business. And look at how the Chinese currency has dropped. Is that propaganda, too?

I agree, it's none of my business and I really don't care one way or the other until WWIII starts and we all have a very bad day. Nuclear war will result and escalate, and then that will be that. So, in that sense, yes, it is my business. Of course, I can't do much about it except sit back and watch. As for the US folding first, in economic terms? I think you're the one who is brainwashed. Either that, or you're trying to gaslight people on this board. Anyway, we can sit back, grab some popcorn, and wait. One way or the other, it will be over sooner than you seem to think.

That's my fear. Xi starts a war over Taiwan. I'm not at all worried about the market dynamics at play here. China will fold first. They're weaker than people have been programed to believe. What I am worried about is what China might do before giving up. Analysts think that China will easily win any war with the USA that occurs in China's neighborhood. The US military is already stretched thin. Much of the US stockpile of certain weapons and munitions went to Ukraine and can't be quickly replaced. And to make matters more complicated, Trump has another conflict in the works in the Middle East, a conflict which could involve not only Iran, but Russia and China as well. Three wars going on at the same time? The outcome would not be good, and I think both China and Russia realize that fact. Before long, we could see WWIII. That's what should worry everyone.

The trade wars are just beginning to ramp up, and that data is supposedly from the first quarter. So, it's hardly a good indicator. Secondly, like the US, I'm sure China is adept at massaging numbers to look better than they actually are. Maybe they took lessons from the Biden team. All things considered, I wouldn't put too much store in that report. I know that might be disappointing to those with an agenda to make Trump look bad and China stronger than it really is, but I digress.

As I've said, you have to take it all with a grain of salt, so to speak. If he seems weird, or aloof, or cruel, or nasty, or whatever else you might think, maybe he's just not aware. Maybe he doesn't really mean to come across that way. Anyway, I look at his accomplishments and judge him by those. Everything else deserves a bit of understanding, I think.

Other than Trump's pronouncements, I haven't really followed it that closely. We'll see what happens. I'm sure Trump wants to resolve the matter.