jas007

Lutnick isn't stupid. And he knows exactly what's he's doing. Look up his background. Presently, he's playing the part as a member of Trump's cabinet, espousing Trump's agenda. Some people think he may have ulterior motives, though. In any event, I'll leave that issue alone. But whatever you do, do not think that the man is an idiot.

It's not Trump's supporters, it's the bond market and the banking system that is ultimately calling the shots. And the bond market is already on life support . The final outome is still uncertain.

I once had a house that had homeowner's insurance. A typical policy. But for a fee, I could add an earthquake rider to the policy. The agent tried to tell me I was nuts, but the cost was no big deal and I felt better having the coverage.

If I were you, I'd take a look at one of the websites dedicated to the discussion of teaching English abroad. Off the top of my head, I forget their names, but there are several of them, and they have sections devoted to each country. I'm sure people there will be able to give you good information. As I understand it, the ideal candidate will be a native English speaker, have a Bachelors degree , have a TEOFL certificate, and, the younger the person, the better. If you're older, you might have trouble finding a job.

I assume you mean the official QE implemented during COVID? I'm not sure where your chart ends, but as you can see, typically, QE lowers interest rates and increases bond prices. Of course, we won't get into the fact that the Fed has been supporting the bond market for years, in one way or another. The anomaly is the result of the massive QE that occurred during the last QE, as much of that money went into the economy and was not contained within the banking system. And for that reason, the Fed saw inflation, was worried about inflation, and began playing games with the short end of the yield curve until they began QT, again, to drain liquidity from the system and fight what they saw as an inflationary threat. There are other reasons why the bond market reacted this way, but that's beyond the scope here. As for Trump and the US debt issue? I think everyone is aware of the fact that the debt ceiling is probably not as issue for a number of months, and may well be increased by congress. Everyone should also know that Trump wants this leeway for "maneuvering room" as the supposed income from the tariffs kicks in. Is the US debt a major problem? Absolutely. But the bigger problem is what happens if Trump can't find a solution to the ongoing problem of deficit spending. It's unsustainable. Everyone should also know that. The overriding issue is to save the USA. Will Trump succeed? Let's hope. People hoping for a different outcome have no idea what might hit them if that happens.

Supposedly, the deal Trump wants to cut with Putin would be for the US to mine on both the Russian and the Ukrainian side, with Russia as a partner and the US supplying military protection. That may still happen, as the negotiations are ongoing and they get Zelensky out of the way. Putin. isn't much willing to got negotiate, though, or so it seems. Anyway, if Trump normalizes relations with Russia and Putin gets a promise of no NATO in Ukraine, maybe it will happen. Trump wants the war to end and I think Putin does as well.

I'm sure I've said this before, but even if the 15% direct export to the US number is correct, actual Chinese manufacturing capacity is enormously dependent on the US consumer by way of the international supply chain. For example: China exports a product to Mexico. In Mexico, that product is added to a product destined for the USA to satisfy US consumer demand. And it's not just Mexico. China ships products all over the world. And, in turn, many of those same products are manufactured for the US consumer. Bottom line: To shut down the USA and its consumer is a BAD IDEA.

I think the jury is still out on this. China is in bad shape, despite what the propaganda machine wants everyone to believe. Moreover, China does not control the world's reserve currency our the international financial system and is in no position to do so anytime soon. On the other hand, the Fed has Trump's back and an infinite supply of money with which to "buy it all." They can keep buying bonds until they want to stop. So, what's the catch? The bond market itself. The possibility of a "credit freeze." Maybe there's a point at which the Fed's purchase of bonds would be counterproductive. I'm sure there is. At the current dollar level, to buy all the outstanding US bonds would cost over 40 Trillion dollars. But that price would go up as the dollar collapses. The question then becomes who will blink first. China, or the USA? My guess: China. Not because the international supply chains cannot be easily untangled, but because China is already in veery deep trouble and might not be able to outlast the US Fed. Its currency is already collapsing and is at its lowest level in more than 20 years. Time will tell, but as I've said before, if China starts a war, all bets are off.

One more thing, and before I forget: Whoever your friend is and whatever currency he wants to change to, be sure to ask him how and where the transaction was accomplished. And if your friend looks into the facts, he'll find that almost 90% of the world's international currency transactions use the US dollar as a "delivery vehicle." Removing the US dollar from the process would be next to impossible in today's world. Is it possible to replace the US Dollar? Sure. But the process would take decades.

I don't disagree with you. The vision of a world of abundance where three's more than enough for everyone sounds like a fantasy. My only point was that that's what some of the AI people seem to think will result when robots do all the work in an environment that's directed by AI. There are a number of practical problems standing in the way, I think. First, there's the energy question. Giant AI complexes will require enormous amounts of electricity. That capacity currently doesn't exist. They want to perhaps run it all with nuclear energy. Perhaps turn on some of the idled nuclear power plants or build new ones. Can they manage that? Second, I wonder about an overpopulation problem. If humans no longer have to work, might they not end up creating too many new babies? How will they feed all those people? Or will some new technology exist that will be able to create food out of thin air? In short, it sounds like a fantasy to me, but I have an open mind.

At the rate they move money around these days, it's hard to call many of them "investors." They may be buying and selling long bonds, but those transactions can be handled in an instant and reversed in an instant. So they're just playing games, trying to stay ahead of the curve.

Since when did grades start to make any difference in the real world? You go to school, do what you have to do to graduate, and go find a job. Once you find one, the rest is up to you. Can you perform? How well? It's easy enough to think of billionaires who dropped out of school, only to create some of the greater businesses in the world.

Incredible, isn't it? Buying the debt of two countries that are even more screwed up, financially, than the USA. I guess they may be thinking short term. Push a few buttons, sell a few US Treasuries, and buy some Japanese or German bonds. And if things improve, reverse the process with a few more keystrokes. Anyway, none of that solves the issue of what currency would replace the US Dollar.

That may be, but we can only hope something works. Maybe not for me, and maybe not for you, depending on how old you are, but for future generations, I'm sure they would appreciated living in a civilized society.

My apologies if all you got from my post was that is was a "ad hominem" putdown. I was trying to inform you of a few simple facts. And I fully agree trust in the US debt market is eroding. The country is in unchartered markets. And yes, the USA is abusing its "exorbitant privilege." It's very sad, but it's happening. Gold is real money, for all practical purposes. It has been for thousands of years. Swiss Francs? It's a fiat currency, only, and has been since the year 2000. The Swiss Central bank is playing the same fiat currency game as all the other central banks. As for everyone using gold for money? Possible, but bankers can't be trusted to store it, and if people started using just gold coins for transactions along with silver coins for the peasants, we'd be back in the dark ages. And if governments now tried to revalue the price of gold to reflect the current "money" in circulation and the current value of all the debt based paper assets on the books, the value of each ounce of gold would be astronomical. Sounds like a fun plan so long as you are willing to do away with banks, paper money, ATM machines, international wire transfers, credit cards, and so on. Carry around your money in a little leather pouch and hope no one robs you. As for the Chinese middle class? Currently losing their jobs, unable to sell their overpriced real estate, watching the value of their banking deposits evaporate, and living on borrowed time. And if you think all that is Trump Kool Aid, fine. Think what you want, but don't be surprised when, five or ten years from now, the world is still using the US Dollar as its reserve currency. All bets are off if there's WWIII. The system will shut down and you'll be scrounging around looking for food and clean water, unless you happen to live on a working farm.

Again, people keep worrying about what should be. That's not the issue, at least in my mind. The issue is what's next and how to navigate the nonsense.

First of all, you seem to know nothing abut international financial markets and the depth of liquidity required for a nation to maintain the world reserve currency. China does not now, and will not have in our lifetimes, that kind of liquidity and a banking system that operates within a framework of international law. For all practical purposes, China's financial markets are closed to the rest of the world, unless, or course, it suits them otherwise. Perhaps a trillion dollars change hands on a daily basis in the Western banking system, much of it in the USA. There's only one place that can happen: the USA. No where else. BRICS and the proposed BRICS system is more or less a pipe dream, at this point. As for Trump leading the US into financial catastrophe? Well, if he keeps it up, people may begin to question the stability of the dollar and the US markets. I agree. But what then? Where will they go with their "money"? Nowhere even remotely feasible at present. When time, in 1971, Secretary of the Treasury John Connolly, was asked about the dollar and its role in international transactions. He said "the dollar is our currency, but it's your problem." He knew then and it's still true today. There is no substitute. Maybe in the future, but not now.

It depends on the issue and the extent to which the court wants to get involved. There are to bright lines. Look up the Supreme Court and the "Major Questions" doctrine. Along similar lines, look op the "Political Question" doctrine. Then, look up "separation of powers." Sometimes they can't figure out a way for the judiciary to effectively manage an issue, other times they know they shouldn't be getting involved.

You miss my point. Trump gave the order. No studies necessary. No bureaucratic nonsense. He thought it would work and he did it. No questions asked. That's exactly what would happen in the case of the immediate need for the production rare earths. Just do it!

Trump isn't my "enemy." And I don't play that game, unlike most people here who seem to think that the only thing that matters is winning the political tit for tat game. "Get Trump." That's the extent of their programming. The media propaganda machine told them to "get Trump," and that's all they think about. No one asks the question "why"? Trump is the president, like it or not. So, in my mind, I try to figure out what's next, simply as a mater of staying out of the way of the chaos and the financial crisis. As for Trump sidestepping the environmental issues to facilitate the need for immediate production? You know that's what he would do, if he could manage to get away with it. Remember the recent California fires in Malibu and Pacific Palisades? The water to some of the hydrants was turned off. And yet California wanted permits, environmental impact studies, and lord knows what other permits, simply too turn on water and fill reservoirs. Trump told them to forget it and had the Army turn the water on. Problem solved. Had it gone by the California time schedule, they'd be waiting for water for years.

I'm not sure about Trump's billionaire friends from Silicon Valley, but clearly the Western Financial system was about to crack, and when that goes down, everything goes down. Globalism didn't start overnight. Global supply chains didn't evolve overnight. And the "everything" bubble developed over a period of many years and decades. Undoing it all is almost if not totally impossible over the short term. When did Nixon go to China? Sometime in the early 70s, I think. Globalism and the New World Order? Nixon's advisor: Henry Kissinger. In any event the multinational corporations took the ball and ran with it. They lined their pockets with the fruits of cheap overseas labor. No one considered the long term consequences, and certain economists touted the resulting "benefits" as beneficial to all involved. "Free Trade." Unfortunately, no one seems to have considered the fact that the system would be hijacked by thieves and fraudsters. They lined their pockets with kickback money, bankrupted America, and gutted the American industrial base and the American middle class in the process. The system continues to function , although one day it will crack. When is the collapse? No one knows, but hopefully we have some time. And hopefully, some of what Trump wants to do will at least slow down the decay.

If you exempt phones, computers, computer parts, and flat screen TV panels, what's left? Barbie dolls? I'm exaggerating a bit, but most of the other stuff can be obtained elsewhere. For example, I've got some KEF speakers that were designed elsewhere but manufactured in China. Could they make them somewhere else? Sure? Do I even need to buy KEF speakers? No.. Ditto for other kinds of audio equipment, much of when seems to be built in China these days.

In a time of national emergency, Trump would cut through al the nonsense. The county could worry about the environment at a later date.

Under normal circumstances, you may be right. You have to find the stuff. Someone has to do a study about it. Then, there's bureaucratic red tape. At some point, they may actually begin development.and production. In normal times that process can take 10 years or more. However, for Trump's purposes and in the case of a declared "national emergency," much if not all of the bureaucracy could be dispensed with. And in those areas where there are known deposits, it may well be that production could be expedited. Significant deposits in the Western Hemisphere include the USA, Greenland, and Brazil. Other significant deposits are located around the world, including in countries that may well be agreeable to an expedited production process. So perhaps the situation isn't quite so dire as it would be in normal times.

What about the deposits in Russia and Ukraine that Trump is trying to make a deal on? And America has its own deposits. If push comes to shove, I think they can extract those deposits fairly quickly.