jas007

Have you ever worked in a government office? Some agencies are better than others, but it really is true. You can probably walk into about any big government agency and fire half the people. The public would never notice the difference. Currently, they can't really do that so easily, so they'll have to figure out creative ways to do it. Eliminating entire agencies. Moving the agency headquarters to Guam. Ending work from home.

At this point, it certainly doesn't appear as though there will be any movement towards standing down on the missile launches, especially by France and the UK. The US is definitely involved as well, but their involvement may well have a political component - sabotaging Trump. So that's some hope. If Putin continues his patience, and if Trump makes it into office, then I can see a deal happening that would end the hostilities. I'm not sure the US wants to annihilate humanity just because of an Eastern European squabble over Russia's border and NATO membership for Ukraine. As for all the "pro-war fanboys"? The rank and file of that group have been well and truly brainwashed by years of Western propaganda. And they don't comprehend the results of a nuclear war. They think Russia and Putin are evil. And they're being told that Putin is "bluffing." Or, what's worse, the entire situation is not even part of what's reported as news.

So far, Putin seems to be showing a lot of restraint. Giving Ukraine and their Western masters every opportunity to come to their senses.

Top political appointments, maybe. The rest? It's a crap shoot. For sure, the deck has recently been stacked against white males and in favor of the DEI hires. I worked for the government on four or five occasions stretching back to 1979 or so. And fortunately for me, the people hiring me always figured out a way to skip all the nonsense and hire who they thought was the best qualified. Twice, I was sitting at home minding my own business and they called me up and asked me if I wanted a job, All I had to do was submit an application and the Human Resources people did the rest. I've seen them play games from the inside as well. A certain person wants a job? No problem. They post the job, knowing full well well who they are going to hire. A few weeks later, the person they want shows up, installed in her new office. And the hundreds of other epode who applied never had a chance. Maybe that's just business as usual. It pays to network.

My guess is that the decline has been influenced by a number of factors. Wars, the financial crisis, sanctions. So yes, the Ruble has declined vs. other currencies. As for the US dollar? The Fed playing games, along with other central banks. They bailed out Wall Street and the banks in 2008, and they've run up trillions of dollars of debt between then and now. And so far, the dollar has done OK on the global scale because of its reserve currency status. But that scam is almost over. The BRICS world wants to start using real money, and they have all the real wealth. Oil, gas, minerals, etc. Sooner or later, something will break in the Western world. As an American with US dollars, I hope it won't happen quite yet. Trillions of dollars change hands around the world on a continual basis. Any system challenging the US dollar will have to have the liquidity it provides. So maybe the party can continue for a while.

OK, over that period, the Ruble has decreased. Not as much as if you go back all the way to 2008, so, over time, things have deteriorated for the Ruble. In 2008, Russia had a war with Georgia and continues to occupy some of that territory, Then the world had a financial crisis that was papered over. Lots of factors came into play to weaken the Ruble. How has this decline affected the people inside Russia? Russia has oil and natural gas. Russia has minerals. Russia has food. It seems almost like a closed system.

They're currently doing a pretty good job of screwing up everything they can, right? Everything from the financial markets to the current geopolitical mess. Coupled with the spending cuts they seem intent on accomplishing, and the system very well could collapse. Some people seem to think the bond market simply won't allow for that, though. They will have no other option but to print money, so to speak. They won't be able to reduce the debt. It's going parabolic, regardless.

For years and years, Putin has been warning the world that Russia will not accept NATO missiles on Russia's border. And yet the US CIA has stirred up trouble in Ukraine almost from the beginning of Putin's first term in office, but for a brief period when there seemed to be the possibility of some friendship with the USA, The NEOCONs prevailed, and the rest is history. And look where we are. NATO missiles being fired into Russia. Play the blame game if you want, but that's a recipe for more trouble. The world does not exist inside the minds of delusional NEOCONs at the US State Department. In the real world, Russia's existential threat is, to them, very real and does matter.

You're using a rather short term spike in the dollar vs. Ruble in 2022 to suggest that the war has all but destroyed the Ruble. And yet if you look at a long term chart, you'll see the big picture isn't nearly so dramatic.

Somewhere on earth, there will probably be some survivors. And I agree, it really is insanity. Years and years of programming via the usual propaganda channels and many people fell for it. They really do believe their own nonsense. Or most of them probably do. At least one member of Congress currently has impeachment papers in the works, pending further inquiry into what, exactly. Biden authorized, We don't even know who is really running the US government right now, and yet the world is walking straight into WW III.

Of course the Western banking system could collapse. Hopefully, we're not there yet, but if things don't change radically, it's only a matter of time And yes, China isn't immune, which is a good thing, in terms of the Ukraine war. They're a member of BRICS and they're ostensibly aligned with Russia and North Korea, but they aren't stupid. Their core interest is to maintain the status quo. Continue to sell stuff to America and the rest of the world. Their manufacturing capacity is huge. They can supply the whole word with whatever. I just typed this on a keyboard made in China connected to a computer made in China. My stereo speakers are made in China. Etc. As far as who the Western nations are "broke" to? Theoretically, they can continue to pile on debt forever. "Modern Monetary Theory." Code words for money printing. It works well until it doesn't. FAFO, as they say.

He's not talking about Canada. He's talking about a territorial nation state on the US Border and assuming that state would act as Russia acted towards Ukraine. Absent the big picture.

According to Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-19/ukraine-carries-out-first-atacms-strike-in-russia-rbc-ukraine

As for Gaetz? It's sort of a balancing act. Many people seem to think he has done a good job in his official capacity, and for that reason are willing to turn the page on any past transgressions in his personal life. As for Trump wanting to "destroy the justice department and avenge himself"? Have you not been paying attention to what they did to Trump? I won't rehash all that, but there are some bad actors that need to be rooted out. Most of the people in those agencies weren't involved and do a good job from day to day. Rooting out the bad actors will not "destroy" anything.

Just out of curiosity, what do you think I;m being optimistic about? Or are you being faceitious?

I'm far from "happy" about any of this mess. And I certainly didn't have anything to do with any of it. Ukraine was used. The country was destroyed and its soldiers sent to die for a corrupt regime that received billions in weapons and cash. And I'm sure you know about all the bankers lined up to "rebuild" Ukraine. Much Ukrainian farmland has already been sold, I believe, and trillions of dollars in natural resources are seemingly up for grabs. Of course, stopping the war will end those aspirations if there Ukrainians are able to retain what's left of their country. And that's what makes the situation so dangerous. The warmongers will do anything to "win."

You're right about the rule of law and its ability to make America a great place over time. I think you misunderstand Trump, though. If anything, I think Trump and his cabinet want to restore the rule of law. Unfortunately for him, he seems to be up against some of the most evil criminals the world has ever known. And they aren't going to just give up and go away quietly. So he might not achieve much in his remaining term.

I'm an American living in the Naklua area of Pattaya. As for the world oil supply? It isn't rocket science. Any substantial increase in the world oil supply will likely affect oil prices. Russia's existing customers would benefit from cheaper oil. Russia would see less revenue. None of this occurs in a vacuum, though, but will unfold over time. And yet the war is at a crucial moment. It will be over before any "drill baby drill" benefit kicks in. And don't forget the world Economic situation which is also at a critical juncture, of sorts. Wars must be financed, no? The USA is on the verge of bankruptcy and is about to have a new president and a cost cutting surge the likes of which has not been seen in recent history. It cannot afford WW III. Germany is broke. The UK is broke. France is broke. And the European NATO countries have militaries that can't do much independently over an extended period of time. Can those countries using fiat currencies continue to borrow money? Perhaps. Then again, maybe not for too much longer. China is floundering., as is Japan. Mountains of debt. Anyway, it''s all over for Ukraine. Their best hope is to stop the hostilities and come to an agreement with Russia. Maybe they'll retain what's left of their country. You might not like the alternative.

The deliveries are said to begin in December and continue for a nubbier of months. I'm not sure Russia would consider drones to be an existential threat, but this escalation isn't going to end the war. It'll only make matters worse.

It's not about "fault." Just an observation of how it could play out. It's an outcome I'm sure nobody wants. One sure way to end up with that outcome, though, is for people to sit around playing the blame game.

Propaganda?? It's true. If it all happens, though we probably won't be around to argue about it.

Supposedly, the decisions have already been made in Russia. Zelensky won't have to attack "deep inside Russia" or attack the Kremlin to elicit a Russian response. Any attack on any part of Russia (apart perhaps, from a few "contested" areas) using long range missiles supplied by the US will be considered an act of war. An existential threat for Russia. The response is certain. The Pentagon knows this, but the idiot Neocons seemingly running the State Department are either exceedingly stupid or absolutely intent on triggering WW III. And to make matters worse, the NATO leadership has come out and openly stated that NATO forces themselves will be operating the missiles. We can only guess at what the Russians will target if Zelensky actually fires those missiles. Kiev could be flattened. There are US military bases all over the region. Large European cities. Paris, London, Berlin. Poland will be hit. I'm sure the European people don't want to die. They don't want a war. But the crazy people in charge over there? What are they smoking? Of course, judging by some of Trump's cabinet picks, we better hope that it's actually Trump calling the shots when and if he is inaugurated, otherwise, we'll still have trouble. Trump just wants the fighting to end, and he seems to want to cut US ties with NATO, so maybe the continental USA might not be an immediate target. Anyway, I wouldn't want to be anywhere near Europe right now.

My new Mac mini arrived today, a day early. The initial setup was a breeze, but it took me a while to fine tune it. Sort of aggravating. Apple keeps changing things around in the settings menu. Anyway, it's amazing what they can pack into such a small computer.

The US doesn't know. Some Neocons just think they know. Unfortunately, they're gambling with the lives of hundreds of millions of people. Escalating a war that can't be won is the epitome of stupidity.

Trump won the election, but he has yet to be inaugurated. So, something is up, for sure. There's no need to give Ukraine long range missiles at this point. The war has already been lost. What's the real motive?