Samui Bodoh

1 hour ago, rooster59 said:

Co-founded by Tesla Inc and SpaceX CEO Musk in 2016, San Francisco Bay Area-based Neuralink aims to implant wireless brain-computer interfaces that include thousands of electrodes in the most complex human organ to help cure neurological conditions like Alzheimer's, dementia and spinal cord injuries and ultimately fuse humankind with artificial intelligence.

This story provokes a wide variety of reactions.

In no particular order...

As a tool to provide assistance and aid to Alzheimer patients, Dementia sufferers and the like it has tremendous possibilities; if it could help regulate the brain to deal with disease, it might allow for an extra 10-20 years of positive mental health and acuity. My mother has Dementia, and anything that could help would be welcomed. Greatly welcomed. Greatly, greatly welcomed.

The use of implants would be the logical outcome of the last 70 years of computing technology and the marriage of computers into our daily lives. Perhaps it might not be as relevant to TVF members due to age, but how many young people can still function without their phones/IPads/tablets? My own life would simply not be possible anymore without my computer and Tablet. Wouldn't it be great if you didn't need to carry around all that stuff anymore? Just 'click' on a mental switch?

The most frightening word in this story to me is "Wireless'. Computer security and network security is not 100% now. Would you be okay with a wireless chip in your head that theoretically could be accessed/hacked by a stranger? it is a terrifying thought.

What are the possibilities of an even greater inter-connected world? Human speech and language is an imperfect means of communication at the best of times, what would our lives be like if we could enhance our communication with others more effectively? My initial reaction is that it would be a double-edged sword. On one hand, the connected power of human thought might provide limitless intelligence, but on the other hand the loonies would connect to each other. And, imagine if through the chip we all spoke the same language?

The safety of the equipment. In order for this to work, I suspect that there would need to be a certain amount of integration to the brain. How easy would it be to replace a malfunctioning unit?

Ethics. Mankind's current scientific discoveries seem to me to be outstripping our ability to integrate ethics into each and every new discovery, and implanting a chip into our brains would require a great, great, great deal of thought and preparation. Would we do it? Or would we just accept it and deal with the consequences later? I suspect the latter...

Would the rich world have a monopoly on this technology, should it prove to be effective? If not (and I say 'NOT'), how would it be shared?

Finally, what voices would be against this? I am in awe of Humanity's ability to push scientific and technological horizons further and further, but I am also terrified that often we do not think things through enough. Who would be the force against this? Who would question everything to force scientists to explain? Who would be the equivalent of the 'Right to Lifers"? Strong powerful voices would be needed to monitor this technology; who would those voices be? And, would they be heard?

Humanity's intelligence and technological advances are accelerating at an ever increasing tempo (we only managed flight a hundred years ago!); do we have the wisdom to deal with it all?

Questions, questions, and more questions. but, interesting as hell.

3 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

When asked who must protect the country's institutions, 94.9 per cent of respondents said the people, 89.5 per cent said government officials and 86.9 per cent said the Army. Respondents were allowed multiple choices.

Can I assume that they only asked Army people seconded to government offices as officials?

Thailand would benefit from issuing a long-term special 'Covid-19 Visa' (perhaps 6 months, renewable for a fee) in many ways.

It would keep the few visitors (and their money) that are already here, and thus virus-free, at a time when the Thai tourism industry is under deep, heavy strain.

it would be an international 'Goodwill' gesture that would allow Thailand to brag globally.

While not a huge element, it would keep some money flowing in tourist areas.

It would engender 'goodwill' among all visitors, and that goodwill would certainly be shown across social media platforms in the native countries.

It would demonstrate that Thailand can manage tourism at a time when it is trying to re-open its tourism business.

The only people that really want to expel the visitors already in-country are those that use form-filling as a mental image when they are... er... flying solo.

Will Thailand do it? I have my doubts, but it should.

There is so much negativity on TVF that you aren't seeing the big picture. Assuming that this goes ahead, and it likely will, it'll be taken up by thousands and thousands of people. And yes, details will still need to worked out.

I can't speak for Phuket, but on Samui there are approximately 10,000 people who spend the winter on the island; they have money and want to come back. On a personal note, I have had approximately 15 friends from the 'Snowbird' group who have already asked me when and how they can return. How many people spend the winter on Phuket in a normal year?

if you were in Northern Europe, Russia, Canada, etc, wouldn't you want to spend your winter in Thailand? The land of tropical islands, hot chicks, great food, beaches, etc?

Think it through...

Barring a massive increase in numbers of virus cases in Thailand, this will go ahead and it is a good thing; thousands and thousands of poor Thai people will get an income, businesses will be saved, and hopefully enough people will be able to generate enough income to see them through until next year when a more proper tourist season can occur.

This is a very good thing.

I actually think this is a sensible idea, if (repeat 'IF') it is open to all nationalities, and perhaps tweaked a little bit to make it more reasonable. And yes, all the residents who have been locked out would use it to return. So what? That is a good thing in my book.

Samui has a huge number of 'Snowbirds' that return every year, and it makes sense to figure out a way for them to return; it would likely make the difference between a total collapse of a tourist industry and one that hangs on by the skin of its fingertips until things return to (somewhat) normal. I am not sure of numbers, but over the years I have heard that there are around 10,000 people who 'winter' on the island (anyone have a number?) and given the number of cheap-ish rental houses, I believe that; in Mae Nam alone there are many, many houses that get rented out for 3-6 months a year, every year. Finally, many of those 'Snowbirds' are friends of mine, and I have already received 15+ inquiries from them, asking about the situation on the ground, if people are coming, and if I thought they could/should come; there IS a demand. 

If done properly and not too stupidly, this could work and could provide enough assistance to the island that it doesn't collapse economically. Yes, a big "IF', but...

Full speed ahead, I say.

PS If the national tourism people had a brain, they'd be chasing down all the Snowbirds/Long-Stayers they could find from any/all countries and creating a way for them to return all over the country; mass tourism isn't a good idea this year and won't happen, but getting the Long-Stayers back would provide enough life support to tide the industry over until such a time that the "10 Day Millionaires" can return and blow their wads.

An interesting read as always.

50 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

All I will say is that the penny – if not the baht – is really starting to drop. Foreign tourists won’t be coming back at all before next year even if there are a few flights.
 
The tourism authorities can big up the prospects as much as they like but they are kidding no one, least of all the poor Thais whose livelihoods have been decimated by the pandemic.

I can't say that the above statement is wrong, but I am not sure if it is correct, yet. It is the middle of August and I don't think a final decision really needs to be made until sometime around the middle or late September or early October regarding tourism in the high season, so one won't be.

Why am I unsure? I think to date decisions regarding the virus have been made by people in a 'virus-proof' economic situation based solely on medical grounds, but we are beginning to see a push back from those who would lose out economically; there are lots of them and they have a great deal of influence, money and power as well. 

Several stories in the media have popped up with a pro-tourism slant, several 'studies' have been commissioned to show that actually Thai people do want tourists to come back. Several polls have magically surfaced which claim that Thais are 'confident' about tourism. I strongly suspect that in the next two weeks we are going to see stories on how the 'world-class' Thai public health system can actually handle a few cases, and how the Thai health volunteers are capable of monitoring the country, and how all reasonable precautions have been taken. Taken together, this is a public relations campaign to encourage the opening of limited tourism in the high season, and the people funding this wouldn't do it if they didn't think there was a chance of success.

In a more negative sense, the next two weeks or so are going to quantify and spell out just how much economic damage has been done to Thailand, and just how much more is coming. And, there really is no room for argument; Thailand has already suffered MASSIVE economic damage and will suffer loads more due to its dependence on foreign trade and foreigners. On a personal note, I have been living in/visiting the Kingdom since the early nineties, and this is the first time that I have seen large numbers of people sleeping rough, and the numbers will only grow. 

Simply put, the economic <deleted>-storm is already here, and it will only grow and grow. I know it, you know it, and you can bet the current government already knows it. 

Authoritarian governments without popular mandates fall in tough economic times; examples abound in political history. That is something else that everyone, including the current government, knows.

Are the borders going to remain firmly closed for high season? I doubt that a final decision has been made yet as a final decision doesn't need to be made yet. Tune in come mid/late September.

Interesting times...

40 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

“With Thailand’s currently low rate of coronavirus infections, and its strong public health system which played a key role in its tackling of the pandemic, the country is well placed to be recognised on the regional and global stage as a trusted destination.”

I think that there is a lot of truth in the above statement; Thailand IS a favoured international destination and I personally know many 'Snow Birds", people who 'winter' here, who want to come back  again in November/December for several months.

However, if they have to go through state-mandated quarantine in Bangkok hotels, it ain't gonna happen. And, if it doesn't happen in November/December, Thailand will lose the entire high season and a huge portion of its tourism industry, permanently.

The simple fact is that if Thailand wants to rescue its rapidly dying tourism business and thus its entire economy, it will have to open things a bit more to residents and 'long-stayers' as well as shifting to a policy of self-isolation on arrival, monitored by local health volunteers, and combined with other effective public health measures.

Thailand CAN manage a high season of residents and 'long'stayers', IF, repeat IF, the government climbs down from a Zero-Tolerance policy to a Managed-Tolerance policy and explains it to the public.

Will it happen? Tune in over the next few weeks...

6 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Was just thinking a good way for Cambodia to collect money would be to allow entry at land borders to all foreigners that had been living in Thailand since March with just a temperature check.

They'd get a lot of people whose amnesty was about to run out, with hardly any risk of disease, and a lot of foreign $$$$$$$s.

That is an excellent idea!

If they were to announce that anyone who had been in Thailand since it closed down was able to get a good, long-term visa at the border and stay a few months (6 months?), it would likely bring in a few thousand (relatively) rich people with nothing to do but spend cash and prop up the local economy. 

Thailand is almost certain to waste the precious resource it has by either not extending the amnesty and forcing all those paying customers out and/or by not allowing 'Snow Birds'/Long-Stayers in under reasonable conditions during high season.

I think people would remember Cambodia were it to do this and make it known across social media. And, those that were evicted by Thailand would do the same, although with some negativity.

I see a great opportunity for Cambodia to mitigate the damage; I wonder if it has the courage to grab the opportunity?

An interesting read as always.

33 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

Let’s face it Thailand needs all tourists. People in the industry are worse than desperate.

It is unfortunate to see official Thailand running about like a chicken with its head chopped off regarding the issue of tourism; there are reasonable actions that Thailand could take if they viewed the situation(s) calmly. I say 'situation(s)' because tourism is an issue that must be viewed in its entirety rather than through the lens of the virus prevention only.

The lesson from Vietnam is that even if a country eliminates locally-transmitted cases for 5 months (Thailand is at 2.5 months, I believe), it can still come back. The lesson from South Korea is that even if you have a sophisticated, intrusive contact-tracing App alert system, it can still come back. The lesson from China is that even if you implement extreme lock-down measures and toss civil liberties under a fleet of buses, it can still come back. The lesson from the USA is that if you open too early and too stupidly, it comes back with a vengeance.

I am not a 'Thai-basher', but who is confident that Thailand will succeed in denying re-entry of the virus when the above countries failed? Thailand needs to re-open its tourism business a bit (and very, very carefully!) before all is lost and mass unemployment becomes permanent. A new and more effective communication strategy is needed for dealing with the Thai public; the virus will come back and it is better to prepare people in advance rather than waiting for it to show up and winging it. Life can continue with the virus; you just need to be very careful and pro-active.

Slowly relax some anti-virus restrictions, rev up the state virus-fighting machinery and open some borders. Assuming that is controllable (but, perhaps, not 100% virus-free), then slowly relax a few more anti-virus restrictions, further rev up the state virus-fighting machine and open more of the border(s). If that works, relax more restrictions, rev up the state virus-fighting machine even further and open more border(s). Rinse and repeat until a vaccine is widely administered and Covid-19 is in the rear-view mirror.

Thailand faces TWO massive problems; the virus and the economic evisceration of millions. They need to be dealt with concurrently and in a coordinated fashion so that simultaneous progress on BOTH counts is possible.

The current Thai policy of re-opening things in-country with the expectation that the virus will never return is the height of foolishness; who the <deleted> believes re-opening sports stadiums is a good idea?

Managed carefully, the virus is controllable and Thailand desperately needs to open in order to begin re-starting its economic engines.

This is the third time i have posted this, but it is still quite relevant.

19 minutes ago, Dumbastheycome said:

You  came  here prepared methinks ! lol

Guilty as charged!

I find the weekly TWTW column to be one of the last remaining places of civilized discourse on the Forum and try to give it the seriousness it deserves.

Well done Rooster, and keep at it.

An interesting read as always...

31 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

Many think their efforts in lockdown will prove pointless as another virus surge will make the previous economic disaster look like the hors d’oeuvres to an even more unpalatable main course...

 

... A NIDA poll revealed that more than 50% of the Thai public don’t want the country opened up to foreigners, distrust the travel bubble plans and think Prayut and his cronies couldn’t score in a brothel (even if Thailand admitted to having one!).

Respectfully, if I may paraphrase Amazon; people who believe Thai polls also believe in Unicorns, Amulets and Nessie. Somehow, I don't think they polled the unemployed hungry people. I would believe the Prayut and his cronies part, though; Thai women have standards.

I find the argument(s) between 'safety' and 'economics' in the virus re-opening debate fascinating; it is introducing, or perhaps better said 'intensifying', the split between those who have secure incomes/finances and those who don't. Those who have "Virus-Proof" incomes tend to argue that the Kingdom should not re-open, but those who lack the guarantees enjoyed by the first group see it differently.

In one corner the government employees; Civil Service, military, medical people and others with government-funded paychecks, state health benefits, state pensions, air-conditioned offices, and virtual immunity from prosecution in wrong-doing tend to argue that the Kingdom must stay closed until... the virus is wiped out (it is always almost but not quite defined). I would also include a certain segment of TVF members on this side; those on secure pensions and those whose employment is mostly 'Virus-Proof'. This side uses State resources to make their case, but is (I would say) slowly coming to realize that they went too far (see the hysterical overreaction to ONE Egyptian soldier walking free in Rayong on Pattaya's hotel bookings).

In the opposite corner but not as loud are the people who do not have a 'Virus-Proof' income; street-sellers, the staff from 'entertainment' industries, those involved in tourism and tourism businesses, transportation workers, hospitality workers, export-dependent private sector employees, etc. As above, I think that there is also a certain element among TVF members who do not have 'Virus-Proof' incomes. This side does not really have a strong public voice, but the sheer number of people who could be badly hurt and thus rebel strikes terror in the heart of the first group; what if everyone demanded a guaranteed salary like a government or 'Virus-Proof' employee? Those who have it would lose some of their spoils, and they know it; consciously or unconsciously, they are afraid.

How is this debate going to play out? I don't know, but there are exceptionally good arguments on both sides;

"What do you mean open the Kingdom? I want my young children to be safe!"

"What do you mean keep the kingdom closed? My young children are hungry!"

Whichever side of the financial divide you fall on will inform your thoughts (with exceptions; humans are an odd and ornery bunch). No matter which side wins this debate, it is going to have profound implications on human social structures and norms with consequences that I can only begin to imagine. I wonder if we are looking at one of those weird human moments where we can all see 'effects' without really seeing the 'causes', yet still insisting that we know what we are doing. 

Perhaps we should have stayed in the trees and hurled feces at passers-by.

Let's Get Ready to Rumble!!!

PS I see that the Thai government is extending the visa amnesty for another two months.

This is good for the visitors and for those who need a wee bit of extra time to get sorted.

This is good for Thai people who rely on the spending of the first group.

Most importantly...

This is GREAT news as it will annoy the TVF 'Grumpy Pants Brigade' to no end...

This would be a good thing, and much appreciated.

Another good thing would be letting us know far in advance so that we can make proper plans and adapt to whatever is proposed; letting us know at the last minute does as much harm as good. Further, clarity on all the ME NON O/NON B Visas would be great; how to solve the problem of not being able to do a 'border bounce'?

But, to reiterate; a good, good thing.

Cheers

An interesting read as always.

58 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

Yes, this year has been no laughing matter.

Talk about the British understatement; this year has been an economic disaster and will likely get worse. Much, much worse.

Yes, the Hi-So and the Upper-Middle classes, mainly in Bangkok, will suffer through having their nails done twice a week rather than the usual three times, but that'll likely be it. And, with that supreme sacrifice on their part, they'll scream bloody murder at 'roughing it' while demanding (and, sadly getting) another tax break or two. On the other side of the tracks (the rest of the kingdom), people will be told to 'go back to the farm' and forgotten, unless of course it seems like they might misbehave and/or want things.

How bad is it already?

Eagle-eyed readers of my posts from the last few years will know that I am a pre-dawn cyclist; I do it for cardio, general health and for pleasure. I am also male, which means that my self-delusion regarding my physique and general attractiveness knows no bounds; in my mind, I put Pitt, Clooney, Connery, and Craig to shame. 

(He doesn't. Not by a long shot. Not even close. He's over-weight and donkey-ugly. Ed.)

On my morning cycle, I usually see around twenty people; the regulars are women opening breakfast restaurants, street food sellers, street sweepers, joggers, walkers, etc. and I usually give a smile, or a nod, or a cheery 'Good morning!' to one and all as I pass by. The other day a restaurant woman waved me down and said... 

'Do you have a girlfriend? Can I be your girlfriend?'

I immediately thought to myself; WOW! This cycling is really paying off! I wonder if it is my cracking bod, my joyful smile, my sheer dedication at cycling daily at 5 AM or my come-hither bedroom eyes? She then continued...

'...I am not making enough money at the restaurant.'

If that poor woman is already so desperate that she waved me down with the intention of becoming my girlfriend in order to help her get through the next while, then Thailand is in for a seismic shock of biblical proportions.

An interesting read as always.

I have refrained from criticizing the government over their handling of Covid-19 because I think it is a unique challenge and I can't really point to other jurisdictions where they have certified, better results. Yes, perhaps NZ, but even there we don't yet know the ramifications of their policy; perhaps in the end the lack of immunity in a closed country will be more harmful than its current success; I simply do not know.

No one does.

There is one element to the Thai response that causes deep discomfort; decisions in Thailand are being made by people who do not really have 'skin in the game'. The people making decisions in Thailand fall under two broad categories (with a few exceptions; don't yell at me); military personnel and bureaucrats. What commonalities do these two groups share? Since the time when they were either enlisted in the military or received their acceptance into the civil service, both groups have had quality health insurance, have never missed a paycheck, have had an air conditioned office to go to everyday, have job security in the extreme and have a guaranteed pension, etc, etc, etc, etc. Put another way; they always get paid, have complete financial security and health care, and will get paid until they day they die.

Are these the right people to be making decisions for people who do not have the same guarantees? Where are the voices of people who do not have a guaranteed existence? Where are the 'civilians' without full government support? This morning as I was cycling, a woman that I know with small a restaurant waved me over and asked for a bit of money; who is thinking of her? Who represents her when decisions are made?

I still don't have any answers and thus still will refrain from too much criticism. That said, I would feel a lot more comfortable if there were voices in the decision-making loop that were directly affected by the outcome(s).

PS

39 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

Now the Thai authorities are attempting to regulate the industry. This is welcome news. Companies like Uber and Grab are opportunistic charlatans whose duty is not to their employees or the customer. It is to their investors. They will put up prices at the drop of a hat and need to be regulated by the government to keep them remotely fair and in line.

Respectfully, why do you think the government/government regulation will improve the business? The government's past record of honesty and good business sense? I think that there is at least a 50/50 chance that some dude in an office will be able to finally purchase that Mercedes he always wanted. Period.

If they jack up their prices, don't use them.

It is either you or bad luck.

I haven't seen an angry expat in (literally) years; not one. Why would one get angry in paradise?

As for me, I am so cool that you could store a side of beef in my vicinity.

Off to the beach...

Toodles