lannarebirth

you've got it

You mean the fact that the PAD now want Abhisit out as well will bolster support for Abhisit?

Correct, if he can manage to keep moving his agenda forward and pomotes it and himself well.

How can he do that if the whole country now wants him out?

He's got 6 months and a majority coalition.

I think that is a clever move by the yellows/government.

It will bolster support for Abhisit.

you've got it

You mean the fact that the PAD now want Abhisit out as well will bolster support for Abhisit?

Correct, if he can manage to keep moving his agenda forward and pomotes it and himself well.

I wonder if Abhisit is still claiming that he's got the majority of Thais behind him now. The red shirts want him out, the yellow (aka. multi-colored) shirts want him out. What a circus. And the best he can come up with today is calling a student to explain the political situation. What a joke. How about taking the time for 3-party (PM, UDD, PAD) discussions instead of this?

BANGKOK: -- Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva personally called a political science student at a university in Songkhla to explain his roadmap and the circumstances that forced him to set the November 14 elections. The call was in response to the student's text message.

My sentiments exactly, Cheguevara.... if you try to please everyone, you end up pleasing NO ONE... we need bold, leadership now based on principles, not backroom deal making and nonsenstical posturing...

It's a Clinton/Obama style move. Get your message out sympathetically, no opportunity for feedback. It shows Abhisit maybe has learned a lesson or two from Thaksin who was very good at this kind of thing.

Contrary to some observations, the doggy doo doo has not yet hit the fan, and in fact has not yet been ejected toward the fan, but the signs are clear that the time is imminent. What we are seeing is jockeying for position when the time becomes clear to all and the country declares a mandatory 60 day time out and all sides are ordered back to their corners before they come back out swinging in earnest to view for their place in history.

There are just too many factions within factions to keep track of them all. The powers within the "reds" and "yellows" have their own internal divisions. There are divisions within the parliament, divisions within the court, divisions within the military. There are divisions within divisions and nobody knows who is going to come out on top so most folks are hedging their bets. The Bard loved these Machiavellian scenarios for his tragedies.

My only advice to foreign ex-pats is to not take sides and to not get involved. You are as naive as the red shorted Isaan farmer who thinks Thaksin is a savior or the equally naive Bangkok-based yellow shirted Sino-Thai low ranking corporate Dilbert. What, you thought this was all about democracy?!?

Best now to quote from the Bard:

Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,

Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,

To the last syllable of recorded time;

And all our yesterdays have lighted fools

The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!

Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player,

That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,

And then is heard no more. It is a tale

Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,

Signifying nothing.

I think all that's true but don't you think what's going on now is designed to either eliminate, neutralize or bring under the protection of a larger faction many of these sub-factions? Clearly this exercise by Abhisit is for consolidation purposes and yes it could certainly be too little too late, what with well financed rougue elements incessantly provoking. Still I think we're approaching this time in better shape than we might have.

my pronostics for near future

The PM/dems forms a coalition with PTP . Red switch sides .

The PM reform package is implemented smoothly

Next election are won easily by the coalition .

Edit : Mark my words

It makes a certain amount of political sense w/ a lot of qualifiers, but where does that leave the man in Dubai? Don't forget suspended TRT'ers are only a couple of years away from reappearing.

I'll bet this surprises all the Red farang (eg ChiangMaiFun) who have incorrectly equated "yellow" with "Democrat."

I think they insult the word democracy. I have met a lot of Ammart yellow shirts and their views are horribly right wing and indeed they would be described as fascists in many countries. Obviously they don't want elections because they are a minority group and wouldnt win so they want an unelected dictator instead. I hate the way that they always play the royalist card as I am certain their extreme views are not shared by the majority of other royalists.The only consistant message from both the red and yellows camps is they want rid of Abhisit so why doesn't he go now and call elections earlier rather than later?

I think the reason is, and it remains to be seen if he can pull it off, is that he has his own personal agenda to press and if he can publically set these two groups off against one another (debate not physical conflict) reasonable people will embrace Abhisit, his goals and his party. Yeah, its a longshot but I imagine he'll get some help from some quarter or other if he gets bogged down.

As much as I dislike the Reds and their leaders, I cannot understand what the Yellows now want.

They believe that any caving in to the Red Shirts will increase corrupt elements in society, be ultimately ant-monarchial because despite their recent purring they DO want a republic and they want it to install Thaksin. So, that part of their argument is semi valid. It's the means they would use to achieve their aims that are the problem and are diasallowable. Abhisit needs to expose that, while at the same time showing that they're right in that regard and the red shirts need to get off that path and onto his. Tough job.

PM calls Songkhla student to explain roadmap

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva personally called a political science student at a university in Songkhla to explain his roadmap and the circumstances that forced him to set the November 14 elections. The call was in response to the student's text message.

Thanawat Waharak, 20, who is studying at Hat Yai University, said he sent an SMS to the PM's mobile number at 10.54pm on Tuesday to say he was disappointed by his decision to dissolve the House as demanded by the red shirts.

"My SMS said I was very disappointed in him, and that I was losing faith in him after he announced the date for House dissolution. I also said that agreeing to negotiate with the red shirts could possibly make him the next tyrant after [former PM] Thaksin [shinawatra]. I also demanded that he explain why he didn't answer the situation better," Thanawat said.

At 11.08pm, the student received a phone call and the caller said, "Sawasdee khrub, I am Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva."

During the phone call, Abhisit said he understood why the public was so frustrated, but they must understand that he was under huge pressure. "He said that if any dispersal tactics were employed, they would surely cause the loss of lives. He said he did not want to see that happen anymore," Thanawat recounted.

He also quoted the PM as saying that fivepoint roadmap was offered as a way out for the red shirts, however if the movement's leaders refused to accept it, then it clearly showed that they were not sincere in resolving the political deadlock.

Abhisit also said he was under constant pressure, especially from Thaksin, who kept calling coalition parties' executives to abandon the government. Therefore, he said, he had to find the best way out of this situation.

Thanawat also quoted the PM as saying that the public should not worry about the government's handling of those facing lese majeste charges, because it was a sensitive issue that had affected public sentiment and that he was handling it himself.

"I have a back up plan for that issue," the student quoted the premier as saying.

Before hanging up, Abhisit said that the public should not worry and that he understood what they were feeling, Thanawat said.

The Nation

pps. i am not exactly joking. there's something brewing in Europe and sooner or later it will have global effects!

Euro doubters have known this for a long time. The more aggressive of that lot have long since bankrupted themselves as more and more paper got hung on he back of this "monetary experiment". Would you be so kind as to give me a nudge when its time to buy DM's again? TIA

Additionally... I do not like the OPAQUENESS of these negotiations.... I see the end results, but the public has been kept in the dark.... we are clueless about the motivations of vested parties and therefore, we, the people, are left guessing and fighting about why people propose certain solutions, and with what REAL intentions... just a bunch of nonsense, really.

We need more transparency!

The negotiations/dialogue has not even begun yet. No party will be honest about their motivations but you should be able to discern that from their demands.

The middle road is the hardest road to follow...

I don't think he is a fool in any way shape or form. This is the smartest way out, he was stuck between a rock and a hard place, and has compromised not only the government's stance but also his career to seek a resolution out of this mess.

Actually I disagree.... the middle road in a political strife like this is not the same as bargaining at Chatuchak market. There ARE winners and losers... frankly, the reds should be the losers. They are the ones who BROKE THE LAW.... so what in God's name are we seeking "win-win" for?

If they had done this in a NON VIOLENT disruptive manner, then fine; negotiate. But they chose to BREAK THE EMERGENCY DECREE... if we provide a win win solution, then WHAT GOOD ARE OUR LAWS???!!!

I must agree with Quicksilva, the PM has picked a thoughtful and honourable solution.

It may be that a win-win situation is not what either side has in mind. I'm not privy to my Uncle Mark's thinking, but if the PM should not offer a settlement, but instead try to physically crush the remains of the rebellion, then he runs the risk of having the red shirts who remain in the provinces join together in Chapter IV of the Rebellion: The Return of the Red Shirts. I reckon the PM is astute enough to realize that, and thought it through well enough to ensure that prevention of another rebellion is much preferable to dealing with yet another open rebeillion.

So while on the face of it, it seems the reds have won concessions, and the government has won back the ground, it is not a win-win. It's just one more step in the continuing confrontations.

Actually Abhisit didn't need to compromise his government's stance in any way. The Reds chose to imbue Abhisit's government with the "Amartya, elite" label but it isn't so. So it will be easy for Abhisit to offer up those perquisites, because they're not his.. The compromises Abhisit will be extracting will be from both sides (chiefly Yellow) to pull them into his long held agenda. Hopefully he can get them to the table with them staking out extreme positions with him beingmoderator/mediator to bring on his course heading. It's an elegant sting operation writ large.

Time calls Abhisit a Statesman. I've been saying that for months. http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8...1987118,00.html

Yes, and it is heartening that the western press FINALLY got it right and realized the reds were violent insurgents rather than peace and freedom loving democracy fighters such as in Burma. What took them so long? The coverage for so long was totally biased in favor of the insurgents.

But as videos and photos emerged of Red Shirts or protest sympathizers firing assault rifles and rocket-propelled grenades at soldiers, it became clear that the protest had become an armed insurgency.

That's what Thaksin hires those high ends PR firms for. He's had the Economist in his pocket for years now. I guess the new firm's job is get Time "on message". It's the best corporate, free press money can buy.

why would we refrain to comment Jerry, surely you do not think anyone of any substance reads whats on here do you?

or takes any notice of it?

if they did it would have been all over weeks ago....

Because our comments are fully disconnected with the on-going negotiations; we are just making speculations in the vacuum, talking for talking ... of poor interest

so talking is no good then?

Talking is good particularly when we have real facts to discuss. In this particular moment, we are waiting; underground discussions are on the way... they have to go on for the sake of the Country and reestablishing normalcy. But I see a lot of speculations based on few details which surface, and from that theories built....We should relax, they are discussing, we do not have and cannot get a clue of what is really going on. We have to understand that this time is precious and not to be too much impatient: those discussions between opponents participate to restablishing dialog and peace: they are very useful and must not be too shortened: truth, confidence are progressively back... we should limit our comments as we are disconnected of the discussions and maybe in full contradiction with what is on going. We should respect this period of discussion which need concentration and no diversion from objectives.

In such circumstances, an organisation (like a party, an Union, a government) divides the roles in two teams:

- one is just occupying people who want informations, but they cannot and must not get full picture because evolution/ imagination are a successful features of a negotiation

- second team is the negotiation team which must be disconnected from People and fully focusing on negotiations without distractions. The external pressure on this team must be minimised. So in those historical moments, we have to limit our comments and reduce the pressure on both sides: i told them: just work for the Sake of the Country, do the things properly, we will wait the time which is necessary in order we get a solid agreement which garantees the way back to normalcy and peace.

In summary, to be patient and to avoid commenting on the discussions, as we may be fully contradicted by the results.

I think very little is going on "in the background" except factions discussing amongst their own group how they intend to respond and thwart Abhisit aims. I doubt very much if he has unveiled his "agenda" to them yet. I think Abhisit wants the discussion to be m/l public because he intends on presenting an agenda that most reasonable people of good will would agree with. Where that agenda is thwarted I think he wants it to be very clear and public from which direction the obstacles are being hurled from. They can either get on the reform train or embarass themselves publically for trying to derail it. Abhisit's going to need a lot better media spinners than I've seen so far to pull it off.

Anyone else trading the bounces? sit a few cents under the dump on open usually good for a quick trade just about any stock but nimble fingers required or be prepared to take a loss. But then again Day traders are able to take losses thats why only a handful succeed (long way to go but getting hang of it). Unless we are heading straight for 6500 it looks a bit oversold from here so back into the fire s/term

I think almost everyone is playing the bounces. That's why its going lower.

It is a victory for the Reds as Abhisit if one wants to see things like this:-

At the weekend just gone, he was basically threatened by Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha to sign the written order for force to be used or he would get martial law. Abhisit's previous refusal to ever sign a written order - he likes to talk not to do - brought the matter to this point and thereby cemented the division still further between himself and Gen Anupong Paochinda and Gen Prawit Wongsuwan, who have always advocated a political solution. His cabinet by all accounts would not join him in signing the order, leaving him with martial law or a last ditch plan - the plan that we saw on TV the other night and the reason why so few others knew anything about it, which he had to put out as he knew he was damned if events went to actual dispersal and the bodies started piling up.

The plan and its vague sense of political nothings has included a date which he cannot over ride now - it would ruin all good faith if he goes back on this date as he has made it public. Yet, by doing this in a hurry he has alienated his own Chuan Leekpai, the all important Newin Chidchob, Dr Tul if one does not count him as a yellow (they tend to think of him as one of them) and the yellows by giving in to terrorists - add to that that he has still failed to win over the foreign press and media, who see his olive branch not as a piece of statemanship but a necessary compromise given his questionable (in their eyes) route to power.

But finally he has had the reds on the ropes but allowed them a way out, which they can claim as a victory, not least with 20 or so of their number "fallen" in the pursuit of "democracy", a power piece of realpolitik for the campaign trail.

the full article

-I've found Thanong interesting in the past and he raises a lot of good "what ifs" I never considered, but I also have seen the events he has described as having happened and those that will, either contradited later or never materializing at all.

Red shirts don't know a lot of things. Red shirts also pretend to not know a lot of things...

Yellow shirts don't know a lot of things. Yellow shirts also pretend to REPRESENT a lot of things - especially RICH and MATERIALIST things

While its true that Thaksin =PTP=UDD=Red Shirts=Black Shirts it is not true in the great majority of cases that an Abhisit supporter is what you call a "Yellow". These are PAD supporters (of which I've noted very few here at TV) who have their own political party, the New Politics Party. The NPP will be the chief adversary that Abhisit will face to get his social welfare agenda passed. The Red Shirt rank and file are the chief beneficiary of that social welfare agenda and the so called "elites" are the ones that will be paying for it. At least paying more than they ever have. The middle class will probably end up paying quite a bit as well. It might make you feel better that you believe you're "sticking it to the elites", but you've got the whole lineup ass backwards.

Then don't give the foreign ministry to a yellow who was on the airport stage - and don't give your deputy the job because he's a banned MP! get REAL - not only DO but SHOW you do - and what about the 'massage palour' owner who was info minister? what a pile of ****

Such is the nature of coalition governments in a corrupt society. Give me some names for the PTP cabinet if you would please.

These are PAD supporters (of which I've noted very few here at TV) who have their own political party, the New Politics Party. The NPP will be the chief adversary that Abhisit will face to get his social welfare agenda passed. The Red Shirt rank and file are the chief beneficiary of that social welfare agenda and the so called "elites" are the ones that will be paying for it. At least paying more than they ever have. The middle class will probably end up paying quite a bit as well. It might make you feel better that you believe you're "sticking it to the elites", but you've got the whole lineup ass backwards.

for the bold part (sorry i could not resist) .

Yes since Abhisit is the PM now anyway ,and he deserves a chance to proove his sincerity .

No question bout that

I think people get confused because they can't seem to grasp that one can wish Abhisit to succeed and also be against the PAD agenda, like me. For those kind of people that's why color schemes are used. Most people can figure it out without a color chart however.

Understand . I wish him to succeed as well .

Is just that the party he represents is not particularly famous for helping the poor .

But who knows , only idiots never change after all

It's true the Democrats are not very good historically about reaching the poor, but their agenda is. The much lauded "30 Baht Health Scheme" and "OTOP" were actually developed uder the Chuan Leekpai govt under different names but they didn't know how to market it and fund it. Thaksin did know how to market it, even if he couldn't fund or manage it. Now Abhisit has refined it further and made it sustainable. Now he wants to transform Thai society further to a central govt based welfare state vs provincial feudalism. That's what this fight is all about as you probably know. Monumental task with few early allies. I hope he is successful but that is by no means assured.

These are PAD supporters (of which I've noted very few here at TV) who have their own political party, the New Politics Party. The NPP will be the chief adversary that Abhisit will face to get his social welfare agenda passed. The Red Shirt rank and file are the chief beneficiary of that social welfare agenda and the so called "elites" are the ones that will be paying for it. At least paying more than they ever have. The middle class will probably end up paying quite a bit as well. It might make you feel better that you believe you're "sticking it to the elites", but you've got the whole lineup ass backwards.

for the bold part (sorry i could not resist) .

Yes since Abhisit is the PM now anyway ,and he deserves a chance to proove his sincerity .

No question bout that

I think people get confused because they can't seem to grasp that one can wish Abhisit to succeed and also be against the PAD agenda, like me. For those kind of people that's why color schemes are used. Most people can figure it out without a color chart however.

Absolutely --- how could anyone NOT know that Abhisit was elected as an MP (like Samak and Somchai) --- and later Abhisit was elected PM in the same way as those 2 too ...

Red shirts don't know a lot of things. Red shirts also pretend to not know a lot of things...

Yellow shirts don't know a lot of things. Yellow shirts also pretend to REPRESENT a lot of things - especially RICH and MATERIALIST things

While its true that Thaksin =PTP=UDD=Red Shirts=Black Shirts it is not true in the great majority of cases that an Abhisit supporter is what you call a "Yellow". These are PAD supporters (of which I've noted very few here at TV) who have their own political party, the New Politics Party. The NPP will be the chief adversary that Abhisit will face to get his social welfare agenda passed. The Red Shirt rank and file are the chief beneficiary of that social welfare agenda and the so called "elites" are the ones that will be paying for it. At least paying more than they ever have. The middle class will probably end up paying quite a bit as well. It might make you feel better that you believe you're "sticking it to the elites", but you've got the whole lineup ass backwards.

The notion that anyone is incapable of forecasting a market/security beyond a time frame of a couple of weeks or even a few days, seems a bizarre suggestion for people who(presumably) make judgements on investments over days/weeks/months?

Although

Actually the most detailed recent research shows us that there's a higher probability of making accurate forecasts over longer rather than shorter terms

This is what separates traders from investors - investors exploit fundamental themes which pay off over the longer term in a non-linear fashion; the best traders (IMHO) tend to react fastest to what the market's telling them and to extra-market events but because it's all on the hoof, risk management and strategy tend to be very ad-hoc

of course! because "in the long run" a broken clock shows more often the correct time than "in the short run"

Yes, but there might be a bit more to it than just that...

poulation growth, demographic change, INFLATION.

My Thai wife pretty much sums it up, "if you don't beat me, I will be beating you."

You got yourself a keeper there, congrats.

So the USD:THB is stuck in .25 Baht range while $USD kicks the ass of every other currency on the planet and headlines scream Thailand is about to be engulfed in civil war. Impressive.

These were the unguided 'point n' shoot' grenades that normally only go in straight lines but on this occasion flew up from ground level, round the statue, over ( or under) the overpass, past the footbridge packed with army/police, dodged the supports of the skytrain station and lines and came down onto the roof of the station in close formation from above. (Almost as if they had been fired from an elevated vantage point far closer to the station.)

Hmmmm

Which I believe BM "cmsally" pointed out very soon after the events.

The reds got something, earlier elections. They could have gotten that without any violence, so all the blood is on their hands, It is disgusting they got even that, but it is the right thing to try to avoid (or delay) civil war. It remains to be seen whether this will really be enough for the reds, already signs they are dragging their feet.

PTP could have gotten the early elections all on their own. Continuous no-confidence votes and pushing harder as a legitimate opposition party. Possibly even earlier than they are happening.

Yep, that's what makes this far worse than anything the PAD ever did and comparable to staging a coup. Only the stupidest of individuals would not acknowledge that Thaksin=PTP=UDD=Red Shirts=Black Shirts. Their "political wing" could not achieve their aims in democratic fashion so they create an illegal violent extortionate occupation. Red Democracy I see Dr Weng has put on his other cap today and is calling for all red Shirts to stick together and vote for PTP. So it was all a big murderous campaign rally?

How did I know Midas?

Or should the question be: Why?

Well, it can't be for Greenspan, Rubin and Summers or those would be Star of David grave markers. How about the 3 wise men?