lannarebirth

THE NATION: Urgent: We have heard that Pheu Thai MPs are listening to a Thaksin phone-in. Awaiting more details.

If after this phone in, the Red Shirts say no, we'll all know who holds the leash to the dogs.

I do hope we're proven wrong.

Thaksin = PTP = UDD = red shirt = black shirt. Not exactly what you'd call the "loyal opposition" that a democratic government demands.

sigh...

That's why Abhisit said in the first negotiations, bringing together people from ALL sides, government, opposition, community groups etc, for discussion on what should be in the constitution. He wants to change it for the good of ALL Thais, not just the good of one minority group, as the reds want to do.

we have to be very careful, the day is long. It is a good new: they are discussing. first in the background, then there will be the final official discussion.

Depending on the exact content of the agreement, it will be a new fresh start for Thailand (What I hope), or just a circumstancial agreement postponing part of the issues.

We have to be careful and see if the rhetorics on both sides are in line with what is inked.

Having myself been involved (long time ago) in social discussions in a conflictual situation, I suggest we do not conclude anything until we see the final version of the agreement.

Today, no speculations about what will be tomorrow: just wait and hope the best for all Thais with an in-depth reconciliation: if this is the result, the conflict will have been very worthy: cleaning years of divisions, solving rooted issues that normal circumstances will have never permit to solve.

It is in our westerner culture than from time to time a conflict is necessary to reorganise a structure: it has been admitted to me by the HR Manager of a big Company with whom I was negotiating the end of a severe conflict as Unionist leader. But it is the Asian culture to avoid conflicts and this is conducting to sclerosis and impossibilities.

Today Thailand has the opportunity of a new fresh start to Thailand with a pacified and united population. I wish this outcome should be quite positive for the Future.....

Jerrytheyoung

Me too Jerry, me too.

There is NO allegation before any court that there was election fraud. This is a case about illegal contribution (and spending) and NOT ELECTION FRAUD which is considerably more serious.

Yes, what is 'buying' a whole party for a nine digit sum compared with a five digit donation to some villages in your constituency to people who vote for you anyway.

Don't have false hope, the dissolution of the democrats will come.

How's your national unity party prediction coming along?

Not a national unity party but something like a national unity government.

An entity that should be only short time in power, on an interim basis, and with the main purpose to bring a reform of the politics on its way. To be successful it has to be done with participation of the "reds"(what probably means a goodbye to Abhisit, he kinda obstruct the way )

Look at point five of the road map:

5) The government will take actions to study the public feelings of injustice regarding to political system, especially after what happened over last few years, and try to solve the problems.

Solve the problem - that is the big reform that will coming. It is obvious that it cannot be done only by the current government, only with its current coalition partners, but must include all members of the parliament.

The dissolution of the democrats and its ex members joining a new party, and a fair share will join the 'yellow' party will bring also the PAD into the big parliamentarian boat where everybody works on a reform.

Temocrats dissolution is a big chance and the best way to bring reforms on its way. A reform you can call New Politics, nothing wrong with, the PAD wasn't the best tool to introduce it and a lot of people got it wrong, but actually is New Politics a good thing.

Otherwise nothing will change.

As bad as Thai politics is its not really all that different than politics anywhere else. It's the culture and society that is the problem and when that is overlaid on to politics the nation suffers. This dialogue that needs to take place is about "new society", "new culture". A recent poll says 82% of Thai people are ok with corruption. There's no "New Politics" that's going to turn that around. On the contrary. When the people change their way of thinking the politicians will adapt to it. Not vice versa.

You waiting for Maitreya or what?

Yes

Well then, you shouldn't let yourself get too bogged down in things like election cycles. When the student is ready, the teacher will appear.

addendum: please figure out the quote system. Whatever you're doing to alter posts takes about 5 minutes to correct so that one can respond to you.

Point One: hence my comments about cultural shift - all part of it (worldwide) - and I am not bogged down - you are

Point Two: this stupid system keeps telling me I quote too many blocks of text so I have to delete some - and bingo!

Point one: Everybody knows about THAT shift, which is not guaranteed at all. I doubt if things are bad enough yet. You've been talking micro for months, now you're switching to macro.

point two. The quote systen sucks but most of us have figured out what to do to make it work. You haven't. You can't arbitraily delete posts, you have to get the

stuff right.

This sounds very nice and like a possible breaktrough ... Reds would be crazy to refuse after the bad days they had. However, with terrorists charges threatening and no mention of amnesty in his 5 point program, they might ask to have amnesty added as a number 6 prior to give in.

Yes I think this is a main point. Amnesty! Most of them out on bail already. Difficult question, but i think they must face justice, because many of their crimes is to serious.

Amnesty needs a lot of very careful discussion.

With amnesty the sceanario would be: jatuporn and his clan are given amnesty, then the flood gates open with hundreds of other people involved in some way saying they are also entitled to amnesty and it would be difficult to say no, then thaksin saying he wants amnesty because it's been granted to many others. Now how / who selects who is granted and who is not granted amnesty. Now what if the red shirst start up another campaign for 'no double standards' on thaksin's behalf. (And let's please not assume that the red shirts / UDD , at the date they are all given amnesty, will totally die and never be seen again!)

And further this would become a law precedent and would have to be considered in the application of the law forever.

Is all of this really adviseable?

There will be no amnesty. Double standards don't you know. Will the courts be overly lenient to all these a-holes on both sides, past and present? Probably.

You waiting for Maitreya or what?

Yes

Well then, you shouldn't let yourself get too bogged down in things like election cycles. When the student is ready, the teacher will appear.

addendum: please figure out the quote system. Whatever you're doing to alter posts takes about 5 minutes to correct so that one can respond to you.

The most important thing from this offer is not about who actually won, it is that if accepted, both parties can walk away from this with the perception that they 'won'.

These individual perceptions may very well be different, even opposing, but so long as each party thinks this is true, work can get started on healing the wounds in society.

The real winners, if the reds accept, is all of the Thai people.

I actually agree! forget about 'winner' let's get this thing done BUT it must be a fair and monitored election process otherwise 'here we go again'

The election is the least important thing on the agenda. It will come, but you should try to focus on what happens till then. That's where the change will come from, or not.

I actually disagree --- Charter reform is the first and most important thing on the agenda.

Tougher rules and tighter requirements for campaigning, corruption, etc...

A "Bill of Rights" that is more direct and noteworthy.

Then a massive government funded campaign that explains democracy and how it works including the obligations of the electorate.

THEN elections.

I disagree that you've disagreed. You have agreed. We are in agreement.

The point is that Thailand is desperate for an honest, evolved leader - who can unite the country.

you honestly think Abhisit is THAT man?

Please provide your recommendation. And while you are at it, a draft copy of the Red Election Platform for everyone to study.

Don't be a fool - I have said consistently he/she doesn't exist currently – please read my posts more carefully

You waiting for Maitreya or what?

I think Abhisit is the one that will be looking for amnesty. Remember the Democrats face dissolution and by the time the next election comes in November, Abhisit will likely be banned from politics for 5 years for election fraud.

He did not commit election fraud it is alleged the democrat party did,and to date that is only an allegation, you armchair politicians are a joke.

There is NO allegation before any court that there was election fraud. This is a case about illegal contribution (and spending) and NOT ELECTION FRAUD which is considerably more serious.

Yes, what is 'buying' a whole party for a nine digit sum compared with a five digit donation to some villages in your constituency to people who vote for you anyway.

Don't have false hope, the dissolution of the democrats will come.

How's your national unity party prediction coming along?

The point is that Thailand is desperate for an honest, evolved leader - who can unite the country.

What is it you think is going on here? Open your eyes man!

you honestly think Abhisit is THAT man?

Yes I do, but more importantly the Thai people are beginning to see that. Should have some national polls coming in over the next few days, let's see what they say. The stock market is already giving an early indication.

The point is that Thailand is desperate for an honest, evolved leader - who can unite the country.

What is it you think is going on here? Open your eyes man!

The most important thing from this offer is not about who actually won, it is that if accepted, both parties can walk away from this with the perception that they 'won'.

These individual perceptions may very well be different, even opposing, but so long as each party thinks this is true, work can get started on healing the wounds in society.

The real winners, if the reds accept, is all of the Thai people.

I actually agree! forget about 'winner' let's get this thing done BUT it must be a fair and monitored election process otherwise 'here we go again'

The election is the least important thing on the agenda. It will come, but you should try to focus on what happens till then. That's where the change will come from, or not.

Who in thier right mind would hire a former thai politician and even more so a corrupt yellow shirt. I wouldn't let the man handle my childs pocket money. Mybe he should go back home to England

Why do red shirt supporters have to label anyone that is not red as a yellow?

That would mean that 80% of Thais are yellow.

Actually that would make over 90% probably .....

moetownblues is suggesting now that a Thai leave Thailand? Why? because Moetownblues doesn't like him?

wasn't he born raised and educated in England? He holds English citizenship. Maybe I don't like him he seems very sly and out to feather his own nest at the expense of the thai people. Every thai I have spoken with say he is corrupt and evil. It appears that only farangs support him but what has he done or doing for you. Farangs in his eyes are just the same as the working class thais.

I don't believe you. Very few Thais believes that.

Thaksin is getting democratic:

Former Prime Minister of Thailand Thaksin Shinawatra Hires International Law Firm Amsterdam & Peroff

LONDON, May 3 /PRNewswire/ -- Today Amsterdam & Peroff announce that they have been appointed counsel to the former Prime Minister of Thailand Thaksin Shinawatra, to assist in the current contentious struggle for the restoration of democracy and rule of law in the Southeast Asian nation.

"We are pleased to be retained by Prime Minister Shinawatra to work on this urgent matter, and we acknowledge the challenging complexity and sensitivity of the political crisis unraveling Thai society," said Robert Amsterdam, founding partner of Amsterdam & Peroff. "It is our intention to explore every legal avenue to assist this pro-democracy movement, and urge the international community not to tolerate the government's violent crackdown on peaceful protestors."

Thaksin, who served as Thailand's Prime Minister from 2001 to 2006 before being unlawfully forced from office by a military coup, has been living in self-exile for the past two years despite repeated victories in democratic elections. Protestors affiliated with the National United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD, or "Red Shirts"), suffered 27 casualties in violent confrontations with police and military in the month of April.

Amsterdam & Peroff, founded in 1980 by partners Robert Amsterdam and Dean Peroff, is an international law firm specializing in complex multi-jurisdictional litigation, commercial arbitration, and political advocacy in challenging emerging markets. The firm maintains offices in London, Washington, DC and Toronto. More information is available at www.amsterdamandperoff.com and www.robertamsterdam.com.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fo...f-92662189.html

By my count that's the fourth western PR/legal firm that Thaksin has hired to spin his bullshit and interfere with Thai society. Blood money.

but there is an underlying problem, and it isnt economic, its ethnic. the real problem is that the issan people are sick of being treated as second class citizens by the rest of the thais. and the other simmering problem is that the muslims are sick of being treated as third class citizens.

You've outlined a real problem in this society. It doesn't have anything specifically to do with the reason for this Red Shirt movement but it explains how rich political/merchant class organizers could readily get thousands of people to come fight on their behalf.

What an absolute boondoggle to think that if and when an election is called there is going to be a be all and end all situation in Thailand. In the 80 years of failure of the Western style democratic system in Thailand there have been times when there were slim chances for reform; this is NOT one of those times.

It is much more interesting to note how this Nov 14 date meshes with the Military reshuffling in the Fall AND the results of those promotions of officers will be way more informative about the future of Thailand than another botched and disputed election.

Forever into the future, as long there is still a pig trough, yer gonna 'ave pigs; as long there's a swamp, your going to have crocodiles, BIG and small.

These current events are just filling the pages of the book of the last 80 years, with room for 100 more years.

The only smart people in all of this are intrinsically educated 70% of Thais, The Mute Majority, that are standing on the sidelines waiting to jump onto the side of whichever gang comes out on top.

Even if Thaksin is back in power and all buddy, buddy with Sondhi again, would that surprise anyone? While this is pure inductive reasoning, it is the only way to explain some of Sondhi's recent comments. 'not a Thaksin movement anymore' "I forgive the man..blah blah."

LOOK at the military promotions; they will be way more important than any election.

While the upcoming election is the Topic of debate, it is NOT the meat of the matter.

What was that Rolling Stone song? Here comes our 19th constitution! [oh 20th?]

I think you miss the point of the proposal. There are just many many things that Thais never talk about. Consequently these issues tend to move towards instability and factionalism. This proposal, which initiates a process, is about people from across the political spectrum coming together in good faith (hopefully) to discuss the future of their country, culture and society. It creates an atmosphere of empowerment rather than the atmosphere of resignation which has long existed here. Will it solve every problem in Thai society? No of course not, but it moves the society forward by a constructive process. Change will come through debate and consideration as opposed to how big someone is and how many clients he is patron to.

It's important to remember here that is not the red shirt rank and file Abhisit needs to win over, as all of this is on their behalf and they'll get that if they get to hear it, it is those sectors of society that will pay the bill and those sectors that will get cut out at the middleman trough. He can't accomplish that himself in a backromm. He needs the people to accomplish it in plain view.

engineer -----

I assume you may be quoting Wiki ..... fair usage rules require you to cite your sources. I also assume that you have never read ANYTHING that Thaksin has said and done.

You have no idea who your talking to.....

But now we know what he is talking to.

Common guys ! It's not Thaksin who's the bad guy, Sondhi and his club are. You are all falling for the propaganda the Thai " Goverment " is spitting out.

This is a war between Thaksin and Sondhi supporters.

Sondhi is a right winger, how can right wingers be for Democracy? They never where... They caused great wars

Remember bloody may 1992? Sondhi was behind this.

Remember 2005? Sondhi started " PAD " Because he said he was loosing money because of Thaksin having the media in his faviour. PAD was the major player in the 2005–2006 Thai political crisis that led to the 2006 military coup that toppled the Thaksin government.

Remember 2008/2009 Airports/Govermenthouse ? PAD

"Thaksin failed on the populist movement and now I think he has resorted to some sort of assassination attempt."[54]

Kasit revealed that he had planned to have lunch with the Sondhi on the day of the attack. Kasit also claimed that himself, Abhisit, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij, and Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban were planned targets for assassination, and that he was guarded by several fully armed marines.[55][56]

Meanwhile, Thaksin had the following to say:

It's [the Abhisit] government that has been given the license to kill [due to the state of emergency]. And I have the impression that the phase of "cut-off killings" has begun -- in other words, they are eliminating anyone who knows too much about the conspiracy of those in power against me.[57]

Don't forget the link:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sondhi_Limthongkul

My take. Brilliant move by Abhisit. Many reds want to say yes. Thaksin will say no for obvious reasons. Thus, the reds will say no and we will see a crackdown. Not my hope, but my prediction. We'll see.

Brilliant move? this is soooo embarrassing - all you yellows were saying 'no way' recently now it's a brilliant move? he is playing with people's live's and he will reap a bitter harvest - credit to the reds for forcing this - Abhisit was saying 'no way' and all that rubbish now he caves in.

What you're trying to do is turn a victory for the reds into a victory for the yellow 'no mandate' government - good try - but it doesn't stand up to scutiny.

Having said this I hope the reds take this offer - I don't like al of it - because some of the wording just re-enforces the 'elite' but we are 'where we are' and better to take this victory now and go home and prepare 'for government' - I do worry that they may not do this - which would be very foolish.

If they refuse the offer, might you finally question your firmly held belief that this movement is about the conditions of the poor and social justice?

Abhisit just tries to safe his $ss, because he know's wen he resigns, his life is over.

How so?

This sounds very nice and finally unlock the situation. Also it makes really govt look like the good guys willing to compromise while the other side... Reds would be crazy to refuse after the bad days they had. However, with terrorists charges threatening and no mention of amnesty in his 5 points program, they might ask to have amnesty added as a number 6 prior to give in.

Where's the compromise?

This sounds just government BS "we're here to help you"

Abhisit is going to have to get real and act like a real leader!

Elections are due in 18 months --- Abhisit is offering 6 months and doing so publicly. That is over a year EARLY. If he acted the way MANY people wanted him to there would be a lot of blood .... (The Reds want blood and so do many of the locals in BKK and then there is the more extreme in the PAD that want it. --- Thankfully the PAD is a minority as are the reds ... and while Abhisit may lose a little support in BKK he will likely gain support upcountry.)

Funny - Abhisit said he would NEVER do this - anyhow I don't like some of this but it should be grasped as Abhisit has capitulated and reds should concentrate on trouncing him at the election - he's finished

I know you can't grasp this fact, but this dialogue that he proposes, this transformation of Thai politics and society is WHY Abhisit is there in the first place. He is fighting both Red AND Yellow elements to pull it off. It's like an epic scripted drama. The speech he gave tonight he might have prepared it before he was PM. The Reds were a necessary condition of delivering that speech, because he can't sell it to the Yellows otherwise. Get it?

TR @politics_mcot: Veera informed #redshirts about PM's election date and the crowd roared. However, reds will talk & decide tmrrw.

Now if the red shirts refuse this IMHO we'll have yet further confirmation of who exactly they're acting on behalf of, and it's not their followers.

/edit - Maybe he's flying right now...

If the Red Shirts agree it will mean they worked out a deal with him prior to him giving the speech. If they refuse they will be seen as the pariah they are and those crowds that cheered the announcement tonight will just disappear.

This is such BS.... there isn't a "roadmap" in the world that will be acceptable for everyone... Abhisit is really bad at making decisions, isn't he? Horrible at taking accountability... likes to use "democracy" as an excuse not to make tough choices

And I agree with the comments above.... why does he even have to tell us this? He has been saying the same tired thing over and over again. "I have a solution, just wait...." that is a lot of nonsense.

He will not act, will he? He is waiting for the world to end first.

Let's face facts. Thailand and therefore Abhisit has an almost incalculable number of heretofore neglected "issues" and rogue personalities to deal with. Each is a variable that can derail any progress he hopes to make. I think he's trying to either neutralize, bring under his fold, or kill off a large number of these variables with a single solution. Hopefully a not too messy solution. If he can pull it off he wins the Nobel Peace prize, if he can't The military is gonna step in as there's just too much entropy in Thailand as things stand now. Best of luck to him.

Precisely, Lannar.... you can't create a comprehensive roadmap to solve an entire countries woes in a few day and in a 20 minute speech... actually after reading it again, it is just a bunch of hot air and nice to haves... but way to short on substance... in my view, there is nothing there, really. You can't cure the whole thing in one go... besides, didn't he forget to include the red shirts in crafting this roadmap? I mean you can't expect commitment if they have not been involved.... The Prime Minister's Roadmap is a total waste of time... a good start, but a helluva long way to go.

The solution is a "process", as he outlined. Starting that process is what he's done tonight. He can't unilaterally tell everyone the way things are gonna be, because 1) no one would listen, 2) evryone would fight him 3) that's not why he's there.

That's it.... I am fed up with Abhisit. He is a smart guy, but he is just proof positive that an Oxford Degree means nothing when you have to get things done. It means nothing when you have to make tough decisions.

Abhisit is great on the sidelines, critiquing, debating, speaking eloquently, but he is a DISASTER when it comes to leading. I mean the guy probably should have known he was a lousy leader when the somtom stand he opened when he was 15 went bankrupt in its first week... Jeeeez!

Abhist is boardering on USELESS, during this crisis... I mean a moron could have done better than him. And consider this... I like Abhisit as a person! He seems like a nice guy!!!

I notice that he has just called elections for mid November. Does this mean the red shirts will be on the streets for another 6 months and more??

If they are, elections will likely not be in Novemeber. "Up to them".