lannarebirth

a little more than 3 months, as proposed by the protesters

What solutions were the protestors offering for all Thais, or any Thais for that matter?

Abhisit has finally realised this demonstration is now a perfect election stage - but he must get it right........

Every time he is drawn into the limelight by the actions of the reds.....he must utilise the opportunity to the full to promote himself and his ideals

You can see his true roadmap unwinding.........he is now turning this situation around to his benefit.........

Those advocating a 'crackdown' lack a bit of vision and guile....the election campaign has just started

Correct. Thaksin and friends know that most of all. They just can't be seen as being conciliatory in any way. They'll have to continue to paint him as the Devil incarnate while he continues to sound more reasonable and humble to more and more people. Assasination attempts wouldn't surprise me a bit.

This is such BS.... there isn't a "roadmap" in the world that will be acceptable for everyone... Abhisit is really bad at making decisions, isn't he? Horrible at taking accountability... likes to use "democracy" as an excuse not to make tough choices

And I agree with the comments above.... why does he even have to tell us this? He has been saying the same tired thing over and over again. "I have a solution, just wait...." that is a lot of nonsense.

He will not act, will he? He is waiting for the world to end first.

Let's face facts. Thailand and therefore Abhisit has an almost incalculable number of heretofore neglected "issues" and rogue personalities to deal with. Each is a variable that can derail any progress he hopes to make. I think he's trying to either neutralize, bring under his fold, or kill off a large number of these variables with a single solution. Hopefully a not too messy solution. If he can pull it off he wins the Nobel Peace prize, if he can't The military is gonna step in as there's just too much entropy in Thailand as things stand now. Best of luck to him.

Now you're just being obtuse. Intentionally it seems as W2MC laid it out for you. If you need further clarification:

Puea Thai MP Chalerm Yubamrung yesterday said the party had changed its mind and would not join the coalition government and the Senate in supporting the six amendments proposed by a special committee on national reconciliation and charter amendments.

Mr Chalerm said the party also disagreed with any plan to hold a public referendum on the charter changes. It also would do all it could to have the 1997 constitution reinstated.

The abrupt about-face could upset a meeting today of government, opposition and senate whips called to decide whether to proceed with the amendments.

Mr Chalerm said the Democrat Party had a hidden agenda and wanted to use the issue to prolong its stay in office.

"We don't trust the Democrat Party and will do everything we can to bring back the 1997 constitution," he said.

Puea Thai's about-face came after ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra telephoned to address party members on Tuesday. He also opposed calls to hold a referendum to decide on the charter change proposals.

Mr Chalerm admitted Thaksin's suggestions influenced the party's position. We are not hiding this," he said.

"We don't trust the Democrat Party "

Without seeking to be even more obtuse surely it is not unreasonble for them to have held this viewpoint

considering they are now facing charges of corruption and other irregularities that people knew about from 2005 ?

Oy vey!

CRES: No troops inside Chula Hospital

BANGKOK, 3 May 2010 (NNT) – The Center for the Resolution of Emergency Situation (CRES) affirms there are no state troops stationed inside King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital as claimed by the United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) leaders.

Colonel Sansern Kaewkamnerd, Spokesperson of CRES and the Royal Thai Army, stated that military forces had only been posted on the perimeter of the hospital to secure the area and monitor the situation. The hospital has never been used as a hideout as UDD core figures have earlier declared.

Col Sansern also showed sets of photos taken by foreign and Thai journalists as proof that the officers were only stationed outside the premises.

The CRES rebuttal of the claim follows a recent raid of UDD guards into King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital which is located by the UDD rally site. UDD leader Payap Panket, who led some 200 UDD men to search the hospital, earlier claimed that the government was using the compound to secretly plot a dispersal operation against the UDD gathering at Ratchaprasong Junction.

http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255305030030

-- NNT 3 May 2010

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

--------------------------------------

Interesting, now the CRES admit that there have been indeed soldiers at the perimeter of the hospital.

here is the pantip thread with a couple of photos and the discussion about soldiers on hospital compound or not.

So, what's wrong with that?

About the use of armored vehicles against a mob, you have to think before starting.... experience of controlling a mob with russian battle tanks (Hungary, Romania, then Yougoslavia....): they can be easily converted in barbecues with their crew inside.

You need some space for manoeuvering and think about loose shots on some buildings (Siam Paragon, President Hotel, Amarin plaza, Central, Platinum ....for example. Good contract for replacing all the Glasses: who is the contractor? I will take some shares in his business....

After thinking and turning your tongue into your mouth 7 times, maybe it is not a so good idea.....

I think they will move them so the reds can see them for a start.But I agree with you the reds thugs would not hesitate to boil their country men inside the vehicles. This is one of the differces between the army and the red mob. the reds don´t care about lives.

Obviously Ratjaprasong is not going to be so easy to take over and aftermaith....the Civil war in the whole Thailand... Is that you want guys?

It is not what I want, that's for sure. I hope they can reach a negotiated solution that sees the leaders arrested and tried, various other lawbreakers jailed and the vast majority of peaceful demonstrators sent home, at government expense if need be. That said, one knows about the recorded deaths and casualties since the start of these demonstrations, but none of us knows the true fallout. Tens of thousands of people have lost their jobs. Businesses are failing. One imagines these salaries provided sustenance and support to 10's of thousands of other dependants of the workers. People who care for the elderly in their families. People who need to get to hospitals but can't. People whose children are in danger from attending school. Those people may even have been sympathetic to the stated aims of the red shirt gang once. But do you really think they give a fuc_k whether they live or die now? Even the red shirts don't seem to care, in fact they'd love it if some deaths from a conflict should come. Only the government seems to care, but they have responsibility to ALL Thai people and they won't wait much longer. Maybe a week, if that.

Still full of the same old, tired, clapped out, anti Taksin, anti-democracy garbage.

Taksins misdemeanors pale into insignificance when set against the crimes of the anti-democracy, forces of evil , in Thailand.

And we all know who they are, don't we

A truly flameworthy post. Sadly, the profane epithets and colorful invective I've managed to gather in my career as a "professional mariner" would only serve to get me banned from this forum. So' I'll just say I think you're mistaken and wish you a lovely remainder of the day.

Can you elaborate please, Parvis? Is there a name/theory behind this "oscillation?"

How about just telling you ahead of time when this "oscillation" occurs - you MAY be able to figure out exactly what I am doing.

Even this sometimes becomes "complicated" - because very often - these "oscillating cycles" can be very rapid - but still "predictable" for someone "trading" full time.

For instance at this point: Thursday I expected a down turn of US Stockmarket starting on Friday - to continue Monday. Friday at the end I see a potential reversal to the upside starting Monday - but yet to be confirmed. In other words while the Market appears to start higher from the outset Monday - there will be a lower low than Friday before Market can/will change "oscillating cycle" to higher. Whether this reversal will actually occur - I do not know at this point - it needs to be "confirmed" - perhaps only 2-4 hours before reversal occurs. Should this "oscillating reversal" actually occur - it very likely will turn out to be a "breakout" to the upside.

From a "pattern standpoint" we appear to be creating a H/S pattern (pointing down) - however - these patterns also very often turn out to be "consolidations" rather than "reversals". During the development of these patterns - direction of "oscillating cycles" change rapidly. But from a traders viewpoint - that's opportunity.

Did I sound "confusing enough"?

The oscillations are indeed cycles, of which there are hundreds of varying duration. Rapid moves come when important cycle troughs and peaks align which tends to happen infrequently.

so its not an unconditonal offer of 6 months - according to Channel News Asia just now.

surprise surprise

Abhisit wants to change the Constitution before the election.

Does anyone know the full extent of these proposed changes and how they would impact the reds ?

Amendments were agreed upon by a multi-partisan committee several months ago. The committee was established as a reconciliation measure at the behest of the PTP. The PTP dropped out of the amendment process at the 11th hour after a video phone in by Thaksin stating his dissatisfaction. That would be a good starting point.

well that suggests again this government was trying to be sneaky and introduce

something that would only benefit the ruling elite ?

Now you're just being obtuse. Intentionally it seems as W2MC laid it out for you. If you need further clarification:

Puea Thai MP Chalerm Yubamrung yesterday said the party had changed its mind and would not join the coalition government and the Senate in supporting the six amendments proposed by a special committee on national reconciliation and charter amendments.

Mr Chalerm said the party also disagreed with any plan to hold a public referendum on the charter changes. It also would do all it could to have the 1997 constitution reinstated.

The abrupt about-face could upset a meeting today of government, opposition and senate whips called to decide whether to proceed with the amendments.

Mr Chalerm said the Democrat Party had a hidden agenda and wanted to use the issue to prolong its stay in office.

"We don't trust the Democrat Party and will do everything we can to bring back the 1997 constitution," he said.

Puea Thai's about-face came after ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra telephoned to address party members on Tuesday. He also opposed calls to hold a referendum to decide on the charter change proposals.

Mr Chalerm admitted Thaksin's suggestions influenced the party's position. We are not hiding this," he said.

@RichardBarrow: PM says plan is to contain demonstration at Ratchaprasong & to cut off their supplies /BkkPost

... which is what he should have done weeks ago, including electricity. But what's the point in going and broadcasting his intentions?

Totally agree. I asked last week how they were being fed?

nice of Suthep to undermine PM effort and just say now that army will clear them away and not guarantee that leaders will not be kill.

think abhisit is boss? they why this man make all moves, tell army to move and then army not move?

Go abhisit and hope you do not have to be in hague for crimes because still 29 people is dead.

Good cop / Bad cop. Carrot / Stick. You get the idea.

A PTP enforcer gave the old man a serious beating ON CAMERA for daring to ask again for promised reimbursement.

Yeah, that's the actor Methee currently singing to the govt. Larry David couldn't even write this stuff.

we have to focus on the Budget because obviously nobody want it on the table....probably too much lies and manglings behind...

This is a major Anti Corruption tool: transparency of the Budget.

Malicious speculation without any facts.

The full transparent and open discussion of the Budget is the Best Anti Corruption tool: important in a democracy: if you have nothing to fear, it should not be an issue to discuss openly the Budget. Put it on the table: I do not believe your rhetorics until it is followed by actions. Decisions of Politicians are converted in actions in the Budget....

you do not want to show the Budget...well, in this case, you want to hide something. As simple as this... No budget, No credibility of your rhetorics

I agree with you about the importance of transparency in the budget process Jerry. The problem is, once it is sent out from the central government the transparency ends. There is little accountability. Roughly, the Reds Shirts represent those that want to maintain that arrangement. the government OTOH wants wants to send MORE to the provinces but requires accountability of how funds are spent and seeks to reduce or eliminate "middlemen" and patronage systems. Hence the conflict. Thaksin supplies the money and the focal point, the succession provides the opportuity.

Please set me striaght...when there are free elections before the end of the year, won't the majority of the Thais vote "Red", which most likely will be another "thug". And this "thug" will "pardon" Thaksin to return to Thailand????? So a year from now, Mr. "T" may be on Siam soil. Yes or NO???

bingo

Does anyone really think that the roadmap to new elections doesn't include constitutional reform? Given that the "thugs" will be out vote buying again. If you know anything about the N and NE you know they will. It's a given. So even if they get a plurality (which is not a lock), then are able to form a coalition (big if) they'll be back out on their asses.

vote buying and executions of opponants are the norm in the south. you not know because many of you falang never leave bangkok to see it and anyway don't like to listen. this why democrat so strong here

ok clever falangs, ask your thai friends what is famous in surathani and nakorn si tammarat and they will tell you HIT MEN. 100% of thais know this and most bangkok falang not know anything about country away from tourist bars. people in south might want free election as well and if democrats all go to jail, maybe they vote free.

I'm not disputing what you say but if that's thecase bring charges.

Please set me striaght...when there are free elections before the end of the year, won't the majority of the Thais vote "Red", which most likely will be another "thug". And this "thug" will "pardon" Thaksin to return to Thailand????? So a year from now, Mr. "T" may be on Siam soil. Yes or NO???

bingo

Does anyone really think that the roadmap to new elections doesn't include constitutional reform? Given that the "thugs" will be out vote buying again. If you know anything about the N and NE you know they will. It's a given. So even if they get a plurality (which is not a lock), then are able to form a coalition (big if) they'll be back out on their asses.

The author is a Thai member of the parliament and deputy leader of the incumbent Democrat Party.

I loved this part of the article the most.

Did it also say he is an MP from Khorat?

At first glance, I thought The Irrawaddy was the name for a Burmese tabloid. But upon further reading it appears to be Thai publication. Thoughtful and well written article, but one wonders whether it merits its own thread when there are so many going concurrently here on T.Visa. More succint, in my view, are the two news bits below....

THE NATION: Acting Police chief Pratheep moved police chief in Khon Kaen due to incompetent action regr redshirts

MCOTEnglishnews: Acting National Police Chief Pateep transfers Khon Kaen police commander to inactive post as he cannot handle Red Shirt movement in province

Good to hear the Police Chief is acting like a Police Chief for a change. But why just 'moved' (....to an inactive post? ......to a smaller provincial post far away?). Are they also demoted? Why not simply kick them out of the service with no pension. That seems fair when one considers their gross dereliction of duty; enabling a vindictive mob to assert control of their jurisdiction, with nary a feint of opposition from the people entrusted to maintain law and order.

Good article. As for the KK police chief, that looks like a warning shot for the rest of the force to take notice of. Particularly those chiefs out in the provinces. That coupled with giving them a big budget today to deal with this insurgency may just get Abhisit over the hump.

Many people here have made the mistaken assumption that because Abhisit is currently clashing with this PTP/UDD/Red Shirt machine that he is pro yellow faction, and that just isn't the case

What was the reason he appointed Kasit his Foreign Minister, then? Not to mention Abhisit's father is on the board of directors of one of the companies who gave the most money to the yellow PAD.

I think that was a mistake. He clearly was not his first choice. I'll give you an example of how you can agree with some things and not others using myself as an example. I hated PAD's close links to the military. Their "new politics" blunder was both stupid and insulting. Their leaders are iffy. I disagree with the central tenet of their organization, which we can't talk about. I liked that they were anti-Thaksin and that's all. I don't care what becomes of them now frankly.

The world understands a government trying to disperse a mob of insurgents. The world does not understand an attack on a hospital, except as pure evil.

so let me get this right,,your calling all those thousands of ppl (some died and hundreds got injured) who "defended" their rally site on april 10th as insurgents????

If a burglar breaks into your house, sits down on a sofa and watches your a for a while, would you accept his defense that he is merely defending himself and that you are the evil one when you are next trying to throw him out?

What you need is a mediator.

I know you didn't mention mediation in your answers - maybe the reds should fear mediataion - but Abhisit has rejected it which shows HE has something to fear.

Maybe he does,and I think this is why. I think he fears there will be a never ending cycle of conflict in Thailand if extra constitutional measures continue to be used for what is rightly the government's responsibility to take care of. I'm sure he believes, as do I, that it is the government's job to deal with insurgents using the personnel and institutions at its disposal. His job is complicated no doubt by the mercy he shows for women and children and old folks and other "non combatants", and also by a weak and disloyal police force. He is not the first PM to encounter ineffectiveness in this organization, but one can only hope he will be the last.

I see Abhisit has:

Amid the simmering tensions, top think-tank the International Crisis Group (ICG) said Thailand must consider mediation from other countries to avoid a slide into further violence, a step which Abhisit rejected.

Rejected mediation... the ONE thing that could save this.

WOW

I can come up with many things that could save this.

1) reds discontinue their illegal and violent protests and go home and wait for elections, after all the reds want Democracy --

2) government proves its case to the satisfaction of the people of Thailand. They arrest the black-shirted terrorists and all of the leaders that have publicly called for violence. Those that are convicted in either military court (if they are active military) or civilian court are then dealt with. Insurrection, Treason, Terrorism, ... they all carry the death sentence I think.

3) Someone IMPORTANT speaks up and makes a suggestion.

4) Thaksin dies of colon cancer and the impetus dries up.

5) The reds step over the line just one more time in a critical way.

Why FEAR mediation?

Only one of the two parties has any standing.

I join the many voices who are crying out for various improvements to move Thailand forward.......which come from all sides.....

I think also there are a few people on this forum who are getting a bit stale and losing sight of the fact that you do not have to be on one side or the other to acknowledge that change is necessary to move Thailand forward.

I disagree, as things stand now you have to be on neither side to see changes that bring improvements to the quality of most people's lives. That change is all coming from the middle, where the Abhisit government resides. The red/yellow factions are impediments to change. Many people here have made the mistaken assumption that because Abhisit is currently clashing with this PTP/UDD/Red Shirt machine that he is pro yellow faction, and that just isn't the case

Who owns 5 rai land is not poor, they have a place to live and food (might be rice from their ricefield only)

Compared to Abhisit they are poor All I'm saying is that with policies like that you can't expect Issan people to support anyone else but the Reds. Why not put more tax on cars instead? People who can buy a BMW or Benz here surely could afford to pay a few thousands Baht Tax more every month. But that would hit the Bangkokians right were it hurts wouldn't it?

The ones that bneed hitting are the provincial barons but they run redland and PTP and tell farmers that the government wioll tax them when actually the tax hits the barons with thousands of rai of unused land but of course people believe the rice miller who wont buy their rice if they are nasty to him or the money lender who may shoot his cousin who has not repaid etc etc The big problem is lcoal facist control rather than central government who if not represented in the area would love to cary out policies which would change the balance of power by advantaging the local poor which is what is so screwy about all this. The rural PTP/red barons must ensure education remains low and that rice subsidies go to millers not farmers and that nobody checks what local PAO/TAO budgets are used for and that everyone thinks a tax aimed at rich exploiters will hit farmers and that nothing really changes and havinbg everyone hate BKK is an easy way to do it. And even better when you say BKK never sends any mor money hey that means when they do, and they have over the past few years, because you contol all local admin you as a provincial feudal baron can take the whole lot and then say hey BKK never sent anything because they hate you and then you can show what a great guy you are by dishing out 1% of what was sent as though it were your own largesse. And this is the way it was and this is the way it is and this is the way it will be

Thius isnt like some western democracy where the local MPs etc are answerable to the people. The local MPs are dudes put up by the local powerful ones and nobody is realisticaslly going to stand against them. The same peolel who lend the money, mill the rice etc etc have been running the same areas for decades in one party or another. The sitting MP changes parties. The people dont change who they vote for. They have no choice. When yopu are that poor you dont bite the hand that is the only thing that can help you and that is why PTP/red will change nothing that matters but there will likely be a few extra handouts that change nothing

Spot on, it should be pinned till everyone understands what this is really all about. You'd think they'd have wised up by now when the hospitals in their districts look like bomb shelters and the Or Bor Tor's office looks like a palace.

BTW: People affected by a land tax that starts at 5 rai can hardly be called rice barons! Any family around my families house owns more or at least close to that amount of land and is still poor. So go tell those poeple, who can't even make a decent living with their 5 rai rice field, much less send their kids to a school whose English teacher's credentials aren't "having a farang boyfriend", our Oxford educated PM wants them to pay land tax now...

Rice barons I'm refering to the big money merchants who have taken over debtors lands and now use them as labour,, this is the trick the red capitalist who oppose the gov for try to tax them and use money for education, if people are educated they are less contollable/ easy to exploit.

The average small holding farm in thailand is 3 rai..... 5 rai i think is the proposed starting point but obviously it would be stagered so the more you own the more you pay so barely or just 5 rai would little to no tax.

If people live by the sufficiency ecomony they can have all they need to eat and stay alive from 3 rai only; better than only grow rice for money and follow politician dream of riches.

Like i heard some one speak in the village yesterday say "why our parrents and grandparents can live in peace and happy life?; thailand is rich land and can find down plenty food around, so long we peaceful no real worry like another country kill each other and worry for your life everyday" .........

just because u support the rights of the poor does not mean you have to b a red shirt. red leader and poliician are quite blatantly just using them and couldnt give a monkeys.

All north and issaaan have been red controlled for past 15+ years, they money from central gov to develop but are lagging so far behind in some places, people complain its the corruption, so the very people they should b upset with are now the ones they hope to leadthem to prosperrity! crazy. let the dems have a go and vote them out in a couple of years if no progress; couple years int gunna kill any one, maurading thuggerry and genade attacts will

Most agricultural land is either exempt or taxed at reduced rate from what I understand.

Changing potential is a tough nut to crack and one that many experts call a fool's notion.

The Elites as they are called here, can easily afford to double the minimum wage across the board. these people are rediculously wealthy. There will be fall-out but there always is. Something easy to do and will have far reaching results. The uneducable need more resources and they have no other legitimate way to get them. Keeping them in school longer serves only to drag the more capable down with them.

This single policy could affect more people, more quickly that just about any other, including education. Minimum wages raised say 25%/yr for the next 4 years would be a great thing for Thailand and clear out a lot more people loafing around unproductive farms. Kick the taxi rates up at the same rate too.

is funny to see democrats fail to make army and police do their work of keep them in power.

Better you right book than try to understand thai politik

Chances are I understand Thai politics a whole lot better than you my friend. I read Thai pretty well, we can continue this via PM if you wish - so long as you can actually give some rational argument rather than spout rhetoric.

Here's one question I'd like you to answer, in Thai or English, on the forum or by PM:

There are 76 provinces in Thailand. Why are all the 'poor people' from all the other provinces not at Rajaprasong?

I travel a lot through Thailand and I have observed than Southern Thailand is richer than the Northern regions: rice, two crops per year, Rubber trees better productivity as they are less affected by drought, tourism (Phuket, Krabi, Ko Samui, and now Ko Lippe, Ko Tarutao, Hat Yai for Malaysian people, Trang for Chinese, direct buses to Singapore, kuala Lumpur with money pouring from Malaysia and Singapore...). and now Palm tree culture is starting.

Mangrove sheltering fish and shrimp farms....

I travel a lot too. I have noticed corruption exists in every province I have visited including the south. One thing I think that differentiates the southern people from the north however is, they demand they get something for their tribute. The people in the north seem to be content to see that their puyai are driving nicer cars, live in better houses and send THEIR children to better schools. That sort of thing doesn't fly down south.