bkkandrew

One of the problems here though is inflation. CPI is already running at 3.5%, so real interest rates are only at about 1.75%. Add to that at least one manufacturing sector recently complaining about the lack of labour (and Thailand being positioned as having the lowest global rate of unemployment), and you can see the potential for inflation. I have no idea how much domestic consumption is imported, but if it's a significant percentage then of course a weaker baht as the BOT wants will mean imported inflation too, which hardly helps matters.

Rocks and hard places.

That figure is a nonsense anyway, just like the fiction published elsewhere. The real inflation figure is probably nearer 7% YTD...

If he is in China it is not to play golf. If I were to guess he is setting up a fall back position or trying to swing some sweetheart deals if he gets back in. I would not put it past Thaksin to try to get the Chinese involved in perhaps a military way.

There is no compromise with Thaksin. A dance with the devil can only have one outcome.

Not impossible to get them involved somehow. He has shown in the past that he must have what he wants. If he wants revenge now that he's locked out and stands to lose a lot, he sure can come up with anything to make it work, however screwy it may sound.

snigger

Do you really think the Chinese are going to get involved? Seriously?

Whatever Thaksin may be he is certainly more politically savvy than you imbeciles and I am sure he is not getting his hopes up that the PLA are going to roll their tanks through Laos to the rescue.

The fact that the Chinese are letting him stay in China at all the the extent of their message of disapproval to the junta.

The Chinese love Thaksin for the FTA he signed with them allowing a flood of cheap agricultural imports into Thailand impoverishing northern onion and garlic farmers whilst all their cantons enforce regulations ensuring Thai products will have long perished before reaching the market.

Regarding the bombs, Suwannapum could be an important factor, the investigations into corruption have been scrutinising the contracts for security, some men in uniform stand to lose a lot if allegations can be proved.

I remember Thaksin saying he would rather lose everything than be defeated, this is a man who would stop at nothing to achieve his goals; and right now as every day passes and more and more of his misdeeds are being checked and exposed to the public he knows the fall of the junta is his only hope.

By the way, what has happened to the colonel? Has he received an urgent message to go to Bejing or is he on holiday?

Here he is:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...8536&st=30#

Under cover in "Western Europe", perhaps receiving ordinance training from ETA???

Well it seems they are taking it seriously, just got back from Tesco where I saw armed soldiers walking around the car park.

Did I miss something??

Is there an airport or bus station at Tesco?

Actually I was replying to Security Measures in general...

Carrefour on Ratchada as well.. About a 8-strong unit.. Perhaps they are expecting Tahksin to go shopping

And or you can get a job there and help right all the wrongs..

Berk of a comment. The British Civil Service is a closed shop...

Please read word for word, I said it would not put it past him to do that. Meaning it is not happening but Thaksin if desperate enough would suggest it. It could be as simple as asking the Chinese to provide weapons. Take a look at his track record at some of the absurd things he has done in power plays, it follows the constant.

More likely would be an attempt to get the Chinese not to recognise the Junta etc. etc. Would be a bit bizarre for the Chinese to stand up for democratically elected people over military types though..

Johpa,

Like any business man he needs to spend money to make money. Thaksin stands to lose a lot more if he does nothing. My post is simply taking facts and applying them to constants to get an extrapolation of possible outcomes. If he is in China it is not to play golf. If I were to guess he is setting up a fall back position or trying to swing some sweetheart deals if he gets back in. I would not put it past Thaksin to try to get the Chinese involved in perhaps a military way.

There is no compromise with Thaksin. A dance with the devil can only have one outcome.

Now that would be quite a development!!!

Nam Plah -

Really enjoyed your post - thanks for the education

Not sure I can agree with that.

Canada has now issued a travel advisory for Thailand. And the U.S. And Britain. And Oz. And a half dozen more countries to boot. It has to have more than just a tiny impact.

Judyel

It's only natural that they should issue travel advisories. In fact, it would be very strange if they didn't!

That being said, the travel advisories warn of potential problems when travelling in Bangkok. They then give the usual "what to do and what not to do" advice. They don't say "Don't travel to Bangkok" or "Don't travel to Thailand".

Furthermore, I believe that most people do not check the travel advisories of their governments before travel - I know I sure don't, but then again I also know where I might want to be a bit more careful.

Let's not get into the arguments - it's not worth it. There is no doubt that travel to Thailand will decrease because of the recent bombings - heck, it sure ain't going to increase. And (knock on wood) if there are no problems in the next few days, things ought to be back to almost normal. The net result will be perhaps a few hundred cancellations. I know that stock analysts are predicting a major fall in tourism-related stocks, which I find overly cautious, especially considering the knock all stocks took a couple of weeks ago.

Wednesday, we will probably start to see the extent of the damage - but I cannot see Thailand losing 500,000 tourists this year because of the bombings in Bangkok alone.

Incorrect. The UK Foreign Office advice is:

A number of bombs exploded in Bangkok on 31 December 2006. There is a possibility of further attacks in coming days. British Citizens are advised not to travel within Bangkok unless absolutely necessary, until further notice.

Source:

http://www.fco.gov.uk/servlet/Front?pagena...d=1013618386505

I wouldn't say that going on your annual hols is considered "absolutely necessary". Also under this wording travellers can get full refunds or alternative destinations from their airline/tour operator if they have already booked/paid...

Well..

Dissapointing against Liverpool, unlucky to not get a point though. Didn't see the Pompy game as flying to Isaan today 6 bloody am.

A look at the table and other results give cause for encouragement. We maintained league position, with the main Euro place rivals all slipping up..

Cardiff in the cup Sunday. Guess the boys could do with a distraction...

Just getting my gear together to get to the airport to fly to Udon now. The annual yearly chore. Make the best of it though and recognise that it is "her time"...

No internet there though...

I want to know about the Sunshine hotel on soi 8. Can you see the sea from the seaview room. Thats not such a daft question as it seems quite far back on the map.

Is it noisy with it being so close a large number of bars? Are the staff decent enough? Does it have a good pool area?

Any thoughts?

Thanks

Stayed there about 4 years ago. Was perfectly good, especially pool area. Also no stupidity about charging for "joiners". Can't remember a noise problem, staff were fine.

Not sure about the sea view, I was looking at other things...

I predict that at end Dec 2006/beginning of Jan 2007, everyone else will be out partying on New Year's Eve and I'll be the only sad git on here!!!

Happy New Year, all!!

Hmm. That one did not turn out quite as predicted...

prediction for friday january 5th: no dinner for me.

reason: jawbone/dental surgery in Singapore.

And judging by your pic, I feel sorry for the dental surgeon!!!

Did anyone hear an explosion two minutes ago in the Ratchada area? I certainly just have. Dull thud type bang...

How much are you talking per month?

Another question about the strength of the baht: when currency and stock market exchanges open on Tuesday or Wednesday, what effect will the weekend's bombings have?

Good question....one I'm anxiously awaiting an opinion on.....Anyone care to make a prediction?

Well.

There is downward pressure on the USD due to UAE announcing swap of 8% reserve holdings from USD to EUR, not fully tested on the market as it was announced mid Christmas. Also announced was the massive Chinese USD ($1 Trillion) reserve being "used" to purchase energy assets, whatever they mean by that..

Whatever, but this does represent significant trades having to executed from USD to EUR, GBP and YEN (to a lesser degree).

GBP may be boosted by the fact that it is now has overtaken the YEN as a reserve currency, again during the break.

THB will probably open 1-3% off against the above majors, but this would represent flat against the USD, given the above. Reasoning for this is that the spin on the bombings is that it is political and this would get marked down as a govenmental uncertancy risk, thus currency decline.

I would also hunch on a rise on the SET, but this is not my area of expertise, so expect a fall..

COMMENT

Was present at midnight with friends at Pratunam when the two bombs exploded ! Only foreigners there as the Thais had the news but the hotels clearly failed to warn the foreigners or they could have checked out on the news and got the first flight home ( guesswork only but logical guesswork)

Anyhow back to the question. Checked the streaming rates following the blasts and was astonishing to see the baht RISE !! It went up 5 satang on the news and hasn't moved since !!!!

Of course it hasn't moved. There is no forex market open anywhere in the world, so no trades, therefore no movement!

The small change you noticed would be just an error on the reporting website as there is no data to base it on...

I have it on good authority that militant smokers were to blame...

Another question about the strength of the baht: when currency and stock market exchanges open on Tuesday or Wednesday, what effect will the weekend's bombings have?

Good question....one I'm anxiously awaiting an opinion on.....Anyone care to make a prediction?

Well.

There is downward pressure on the USD due to UAE announcing swap of 8% reserve holdings from USD to EUR, not fully tested on the market as it was announced mid Christmas. Also announced was the massive Chinese USD ($1 Trillion) reserve being "used" to purchase energy assets, whatever they mean by that..

Whatever, but this does represent significant trades having to executed from USD to EUR, GBP and YEN (to a lesser degree).

GBP may be boosted by the fact that it is now has overtaken the YEN as a reserve currency, again during the break.

THB will probably open 1-3% off against the above majors, but this would represent flat against the USD, given the above. Reasoning for this is that the spin on the bombings is that it is political and this would get marked down as a govenmental uncertancy risk, thus currency decline.

I would also hunch on a rise on the SET, but this is not my area of expertise, so expect a fall..

Don't forget that TC's always attract a premium due to the risk/settlement advantage, hence having to pay 1-2% on purchase, negating the rate premium...

That only applies if you get charged for your TC....So programs provide them free.

Yes, but the cost of tyhe TC is subsidised by the program. There is still a cost, although not directly levied on the payee in your example..

" 'program '.....what program..BKK Andrew is now the second person to refer to 'program' in relation to travellers cheques

please explain

Thank you

A "program" is an Americanism (I lived there for 3 long years) for a membership, such as a premium bank account, premium credit card or airline membership etc. where you are rewarded with all manner of things. 0% TC's are one such "freebie"..

Don't forget that TC's always attract a premium due to the risk/settlement advantage, hence having to pay 1-2% on purchase, negating the rate premium...

That only applies if you get charged for your TC....So programs provide them free.

Yes, but the cost of the TC is subsidised by the program. There is still a cost, although not directly levied on the payee in your example..

"Clearly you can get up to one and one half percent more on the onshore market."

*****

where's the proof Topfield? we have no numbers to compare. what we can do is (on tuesday) that i get an offshore quote from my bank and compare it to your onshore quote.

only problem is that we have to synchronize!

reply :

An excellent idea. What I can say is that today I exchanged my sterling for baht at Kasigorn bank Sukumvit soi 3 today at a rate of 70.2475 while the quoted offshore rate is only 69.437 on most websites. You can check and will see the Kasigorn rate on their website at this very moment . It wont change possibly until Tuesday [and their change booths now open do use their webpage rate.]

As for your comparison proposal which I am sure many others will be most interested to know the result of, we are back to square one ...my very first posting on this matter. At the moment I know of no Thai or foreign publicly accessible website which quotes the onshore streaming rate and in my posting I asked whether anyone does know !!

The change offices use some kind of hand held monitor ( Thai Reuters ? ) with up to date onshore rates and fix their rates accordingly. The nearest I can suggest is to call Super Rich....they have two competing offices which use the same name (directly opposite each other) so try both offices.. and get their bid/offer rate. The mid point will be as near to the true onshore rate as one is likely to get at present.

Please remember however that the two Super Riches only deal in banknotes

Bugger. Just changed two grand an hour ago at Super Rich outlet in Big C (Super Rich is closed untill Tuesday) and got 69.80... I bloody well paid the dosh into Kasikorn as well!

as I know the biggest party is NOT on Khao San but in front of Central World Trade center; second big is between Siam Discovery and Siam Center.

Would agree. Been before and going tonight!!

Er. Are we talking about the skytrain airport extension here? It is under construction!?!?!

See below from The Nation 29/12/06 why this is extremely important for investors as the offshore rate is totally different to the onshore rate and all the websites we use quote the offshore rate.

there is not much difference between offshore and onshore during "regular" times Topfield. since a 18. december we face an exceptional situation and big fluctuations.

people who are planning to transfer high amounts should use the possibility of buying Baht offshore (hitting the exchange rate when it suits them) and transfer Baht instead of foreign currency. i am doing that since i live in Thailand.

discussing THB rates for small transfers, i.e. <USD 5k is nothing but a waste of time.

Thanks for that but would not be stupid to buy baht offshore when you get almost one percent more baht using the onshore rate ?

We just have to find a local source of information for current tradable onshore rates otherwise we are blind !

Did a google search and only found offshore rates. Onshore rate seems to be an over the counter market between banks and dealers with no access by the public. It seems we can only know the rate the following day when Bangkok Bank publishes its economic report.

Tried phoning Super Rich today, but they are on answer phone..

Assume that once the holiday is over they would be happy to quote the current rate during office hours.

02 254 4444; 02 655 0155; 02 253 5559

Many thanks for that. In fact their rate for pounds was 69.75 today !! Unfortunately they only trade bank notes. Bangkok Bank on the other hand is currently paying 70.25 (for travellers cheques !! )

Don't forget that TC's always attract a premium due to the risk/settlement advantage, hence having to pay 1-2% on purchase, negating the rate premium...

See below from The Nation 29/12/06 why this is extremely important for investors as the offshore rate is totally different to the onshore rate and all the websites we use quote the offshore rate.

there is not much difference between offshore and onshore during "regular" times Topfield. since a 18. december we face an exceptional situation and big fluctuations.

people who are planning to transfer high amounts should use the possibility of buying Baht offshore (hitting the exchange rate when it suits them) and transfer Baht instead of foreign currency. i am doing that since i live in Thailand.

discussing THB rates for small transfers, i.e. <USD 5k is nothing but a waste of time.

Thanks for that but would not be stupid to buy baht offshore when you get almost one percent more baht using the onshore rate ?

We just have to find a local source of information for current tradable onshore rates otherwise we are blind !

Did a google search and only found offshore rates. Onshore rate seems to be an over the counter market between banks and dealers with no access by the public. It seems we can only know the rate the following day when Bangkok Bank publishes its economic report.

Tried phoning Super Rich today, but they are on answer phone..

Assume that once the holiday is over they would be happy to quote the current rate during office hours.

02 254 4444; 02 655 0155; 02 253 5559

I highly doubt they' re having their turn at the trough.

In which case, I would say that you are rather niave..