shadowofacloud

Yeah, this river is in dire need of another dam. Maybe two.

Don't worry, I failed my first attempt as well (@ Bang Chak). I had no bike of my own at the time and rented one of the motorcycles from DLT. It had some serious issues with the steering column, it basically did not turn. Did my best balancing, counter-steering and what not, but I failed on the slalom.

Got a proper bike next time and passed without issues.

1 hour ago, thongdee said:

Low class people, the boy get attacked and you try to make a joke about it , hope your not going to be the next because ,Thailanc start to be s little crazy with people try to survive,  hope he heal fast , once a Swiss drugs addict did the same to me , hit me from behind, I kicked the <deleted> out off him anded us up at the Policeoffice where he payef for his aggression 

Fascinating story. Pray tell, did he hit you with his Swiss watch or a jumbo bar of Toblerone?

But you are right about Thailand getting crazy.

OK, so it seems it is not super complex, considering the know-how regarding DNA we have today (sorry for the dramatic oversimplification):

1. The genome of the virus was published online on 11th Jan,

2. Biotech companies take this info and manufacture some compounds (proteins, I suppose) that will attach to the viruses genome

3. Once they attach to it some reaction is triggered - color change etc.

That's the easy part - but you cannot just grab a random person on the street and test, it must be done in a controlled environment. Extract from the article below:

"The more important reason is that there are high thresholds for testing with kits, and related laboratories, instruments and technicians are required."It's not that you can measure it anywhere with this box, no. " A medical staff member said.

According to the prescribed procedure, the kit is usually sent to the provincial CDC, and then issued by the provincial CDC. A person in charge of the Yunnan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention told this reporter that for a new infectious disease virus, it should be managed in accordance with state-regulated infectious virus type A. To avoid contamination, testing should be done at least in a biosafety-level laboratory, "probably not in most hospitals."

In the testing laboratory, there must be negative pressure equipment, the air flow can only enter and cannot go out; the laboratory's cleanliness, ventilation system, disinfection and sterilization have extremely high requirements. If you do not have the conditions to do the test, it is likely that the virus will leak and the laboratory will become a source of pollution."Now it is stipulated that in the environment of secondary protection, personnel protection measures of tertiary protection should be adopted. " Wu Yong said that this requirement is high, which means that only third-tier hospitals can perform relevant tests. "Small hospitals cannot do it." "."

There seem to be lots of kits manufactured, but China is quite heavily populated, plus there are supply chain issues and lack of availability of sophisticated testing labs. So it all adds up to create bottlenecks.

3 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Chinese might be hitting the limits of their diagnosis capabilities. When confirmed started going up at a rate of 2k+/day, the graph turned linear. Doesn't look like exponential growth, bit suspect.

Yes, that's another story. I am trying to avoid making any assumptions, simply looking at available data. The quality of this data is a different story, it's quite possible it is being manipulated.

A few questions:

How does hitting the limits of diagnostic capabilities work? Not enough diagnostic kits? Not enough people to analyze the samples? And what does constitute of a diagnostic kit? I assume they take blood from a person suspected of infection - what happens then? Does it have to go through a complex extraction process, be analyzed using a spectrometer or similar machine?

8 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

According to the WHO, the numbers of total confirmed cases worldwide and the number of deaths in China have both more than doubled in the past four days -- Jan. 30 to Feb. 3.  And the number of confirmed cases outside China have almost doubled in that time.

  And that actually is a good thing. The cases almost quadrupled between Jan 26 and Jan 30, so the exponent factor (? sorry, not used to writing about statistics in English) is actually decreasing.

  If you look at the full picture, it does not look that bleak.

4 minutes ago, Tayaout said:

Found this might interest you: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbE-UuJYw5V4FkyMZ-LplvUQZlut4oa5Zl3lrSmN_mk/edit?usp=drivesdk

Thanks, looks interesting - will analyze in detail later.

5 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

What formula did you use? death/recovery divided by confirmed/suspected/something else?

The simplest possible: death/recovery divided by confirmed cases.

3 minutes ago, RotBenz8888 said:

With the strong Baht, maybe they can buy Tower Bridge and move it there?

Now, that's an idea!

With the UK soon to join the merry club of developing countries, we'll see 40 GBP per THB in no time. ????

19 minutes ago, Salerno said:

What are you using? Chrome and it's built in translator works fine (other than the images).

Some plugin for FF, which uses google translate in the background... Will check with Chrome in a sec...

[edit] It works in Chrome, thanks! Must be the plugin then, assumed google translate is blocked by Chinese govt.

In case someone is in need of fresh thrills, here is a part of the translated page:

This thread can now be closed.

 Hi All,

 I need someone who reads Chinese and could help me navigate through this page:

 --> https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia?scene=2&clicktime=1579582238&enterid=1579582238&from=singlemessage&isappinstalled=0

 I am doing some calculations and need to see if I can download day-by-day raw data from this page.

 Somehow cannot translate it through the usual engines.

 Feel free to PM.

 Thank you.

3h as in between arrival @ DMK and departure from BKK? Super risky. ~6h seems safe-ish, but there still is a risk.

But why don't you fly in the night before, overnight near BKK and take the flight to Europe in the morning? Lots of places to stay on every price level, most offer free (or cheap) transfers to the airport and you have a stress free journey.

I have been doing that for a while, when living in southern TH - beats same day flights.

31 minutes ago, tomazbodner said:

You're off by your prediction. 1600 cases too low, 22 deaths too low. This number in screenshot below hasn't changed since yesterday as I think it's only updated once a day...

 

Way off, I admit [edit: actually, if you look at the chart, which is using the EOD numbers, the number of cases was 16600, so not that bad, and I based my extrapolation on EOD numbers from prev days - the 17k+ number you show is based on the current information). But it was something whipped up by fiddling with moving averages in a couple minutes, didn't expect it to be very successful anyway.

Another observation from this morning - again, might be total coincidental. I've grouped the number of new cases in similar periods (5 and 6 days). So the average between Jan 21 and Jan 26 is around 400. Then it rises over fourfold (x4.25) to 1700 for the next period of 5 days. Last two days indicate another jump, but much less pronounced - x1.7.

Also, mortality rate stable and slightly falling:

Again - I am not pretending to be a the national office of statistics or an expert on epidemiology. Juts playing with numbers.

Some more fiddling with stats:

Mortality rate actually falling.

My prediction for next set of data (Feb 02):  infected: 15973; new cases: 1673; deaths 340. Purely subjective, super basic statistics.