shadowofacloud

4 minutes ago, khunpa said:

Here a new forecast study.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext

Thank you - read that earlier today. Some bits quite unnerving, but the bottom line cautiously optimistic:

Nevertheless, it might still be possible to secure containment of the spread of infection such that initial imported seeding cases or even early local transmission does not lead to a large epidemic in locations outside Wuhan. To possibly succeed, substantial, even draconian measures that limit population mobility should be seriously and immediately considered in affected areas, as should strategies to drastically reduce within-population contact rates through cancellation of mass gatherings, school closures, and instituting work-from-home arrangements, for example.

Draconian measures already in place in China, in my opinion.

Any one has a table with deaths/recovered per day since Jan 20? Cannot find it online.

53 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

With all due respect, what you say is COMPLETE NONSENSE!  The number of new cases and confirmed deaths has been increasing exponentially and continues to do so in China...and at an extremely alarming rate, even surpassing SARS!

Please, let's keep it civil. Take a look at my analysis below:

As you can see, the on the first chart (the percentage of new cases in relation to the value from previous day), we are actually in a downward trend (see dotted line).

The second chart is the number of cases in total. It obviously is rising (in a couple of minutes I will post the same chart corrected by the number deaths and recovered), but it is not dramatic. The last observation shows a bigger rise, but this may be an outlier - we do not know yet.

I will repeat, what I've said before - keep calm and carry on. We should be aware of the risks and watch the data, but at this stage, there is no need to be overly concerned. In my opinion.

Data taken from here: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Yes, I think I overanalyzed the whole thing. To me it was a bit of a hierarchy:

 Visa

 - stay permit

 - extended stay permit

 - re-entry permit

All under the same visa "entity", to use technical nomenclature.  But it seems it is does not work this way.

Well, a lesson for future re-entries.

10 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

1. The epidemic most certainly demonstrates exponential growth. Multiple health organizations have stated as much. The International Journal of Infectious Diseases  

(Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak - Published 30-Jan-2020) concluded that The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. 

 

2. How can you discuss the  mortality rate when  we still do not know what is going on in China? You dismiss the deaths as nothing important. The 300  victims lives were important to the victims and their families. They did not need to die.

1. OK, I agree here. It is about the time-frame analyzed. If you consider the whole period, starting from 8 Dec, you can talk about exponential growth. The study you have quoted also took a partial time frame - starting on 10th Jan. However, the last 10 days or so, starting from when proper measurement, reporting and treatment began is mostly linear.

2. Stop playing on emotions, as this is simply pathetic. People died, die and will die, it is a simple fact of life. 60 people per day die on the roads of Thailand, tens of thousands of influenza every year. And the mortality rate discussed is based on the _current_ state of knowledge - whether is full or accurate is another question. But unless you can provide better data, the issue is closed.

And as far as having the full picture - we will most likely never have it. So the only reasonable thing to do is focus on the data available and extrapolate from there.

5 minutes ago, URMySunshine said:

I sincerely wish to believe you and have every reason to do so if you can intelligently answer two questions that are concerning me. Why have the Chinese gone to such extremes in terms of what is now a multi mega city shutdown and why are foreign powers stopping all travel to China such as flights being cancelled and Uk and others pulling all their diplomatic staff and foreign nationals out of the country if this is just another flu virus. The costs are huge if your perceived  level of risk is true.

IMO it is mostly precautionary in case of China. The country is trying its best to avoid the cluster<deleted> it had with SARS a while ago, so they are taking more radical steps just in case*. Plus they are showing off a bit - Chinese have this love for grandeur, as exhibited a few times during the reign of Chairman Mao. And they have the means to achieve it. Personally, I am impressed with what they are doing.

The flight ban is either purely political (politicians showing just ah how much they care for their beloved constituents) or minimizing potential business risks (airlines protecting themselves from lawsuits).

[*] There is also another, absolutely justified aspect to this precaution: we don't have the full information yet regarding the virus' life cycle, patient zero, potential vectors. So yes, it is a _potentially_ risky situation and it is good to be aware of the possible outcomes. But at this stage the data does not justify total closure of borders and similar, radical measures.

13 minutes ago, Tayaout said:

Up to you but I've been following the number for over a week (there was like 400 cases in China and 0 outside) and it increases exponentially even tho the Chinese are limited at about 2000 tests per day. Sure in the beginning it's not impressive but it quickly went out of control. 

Please stop spreading <deleted> and mongering fear.

It does not increase exponentially - suggest you read a definition of exponential first.

As I've written elsewhere - the mortality rate is stable and low. There is a steadily rising number of recovered patients, a number now higher than the number of fatalities (305 dead, 340 recovered). The rate of infection is also fairly steady at 1-2k per day (with the usual variations), the vast majority in Hubei and neighboring provinces. The majority of fatalities are the elderly and frail, with existing conditions - people, who would most likely die of any other serious infection.

Just keep calm and carry on.

1 hour ago, Number 6 said:

Yes. Thought that was fairly evident by my post.

 

Case in point all the propaganda pieces on the topic now littering the site.

You should lay off the lao khao my friend, it no good for your paranoia. ????

FP is one of the most balanced periodicals on international affairs available. I have been a subscriber for years and haven't noticed any kind of bias - and I am especially sensitive to that.

7 minutes ago, Logosone said:

It's too late for that. 

 

Just like isolating Wuhan will have no effect because big city centres like Shanghai and Beijing are already infected and will see increasing number of cases, the wholeseale nuking of China would be useless as air travel has ensured that many cities outside China are already infected.

Let's nuke the whole planet then! Problem solved - for everybody for ever. ????

40 minutes ago, Denim said:

Images from China show people with 5 liter water bottles covering their heads completely plus a mask underneath.

Yeah, saw that as well:

--> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7942159/Nervous-Chinese-travellers-pictured-wearing-face-masks-plastic-bottles.html

Not sure if daily mail mail isn't a total rag tho.

3 minutes ago, impulse said:

But there's just not that many Mennonites left...

Oh....  Methodists.

Lots of Mahayana Buddhists tho.

Will duck and cover now.

Just now, FarFlungFalang said:

This is what my boss used to say in the 80's in regards to a certain religious group.

I was being VERY sarcastic, in case anyone missed it. ????

3 minutes ago, tifino said:

... depend on whether you are on the recieving end

How do you mean?

Are you saying that Foreign Policy is loaded with fake news?

37 minutes ago, KhunBENQ said:

That's the interesting part.

I never checked and would have expected that they give worse rates at the machines.

It seems that all the FX counters on the lower floor use the same rates in order to eliminate any competition between them. And the machines belong to Krungsri (IIRC), which has a manned counter just next to them, so it wouldn't make sense to use different rates - people would just go to the counter.

1 minute ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I too refuse to live the rest of my so far wonderful life living in a panic riddled mortal fear for as I understand it life has a 100% mortality rate!

Very well said! I really like the bit on life's mortality rate ????. Will reuse from time to time, if you don't mind.

1 minute ago, DrJack54 said:

OP, on the your arrival card where it states "visa number". What did you write?

It should be the # on your reentry permit.

I wrote the number of my original visa - maybe that confused her.

Maybe some wagers? How many members of TVF will die a terrible death due to coronavirus infection (and I don't mean liver failure due to coronabeer ingestion)?

1000 THB says 0.

 Hi All,

 A few words on my experience on getting a re-entry permit at BKK and entering at BKK on said permit.

 I am on a TV, extended by 30d, permitted to stay until 20 FEB. Had to pop to Europe for a few days due to work obligations.

 Decided to apply for a re-entry permit prior to my flight from BKK. Grabbed the form from the immigrationbangkok.com website (https://immigrationbangkok.com/thailand-immigration-forms/), filled it on my laptop, printed out and, equipped with a photo and 1k THB, went to the airport.

 The re-entry permit counters are past security, one floor down, in the lower left (first counter) and upper left (a small room actually) of the immigration hall (if facing the immigration counters). There was just one guy ahead of me in the queue - took a few minutes to process him @ the first counter, as he did not have a form. In my case it was just a few seconds. The lady quickly checked the form, attached a photo and sent me to the second stage. Here, there was some confusion as I wrote Krungthep instead of Bangkok on my form, but it was quickly resolved by a senior IO. Then they took my 1000 THB, gave me my stamped passport in a couple minutes and sent me back to the queue to immigration counters. Whole process took 10 minutes, including the queue at the first counter.

 On the way back there was some confusion - the lady IO clearly did not understand the concept of re-entry and assumed I wanted a waiver. She checked my ticket out of TH, asked me a few questions and called for a senior IO. I didn't even bother to talk to her - the senior IO immediately spotted the re-entry stamp and stamped me in until end of my existing permission to stay.

 Story ends. Fanfares. Mad crowds cheering.

Ah, such craziness.

Visually, it seems much better now, but the readings are still around ~170.