christophe75

51 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

They are dying pretty fast, or have been in hospital for weeks already? Something about this and Qom doesn't quite match the Chinese version.

Welcome to the club.

????

The club of people who try to think by themselves...

Someone talked about chinese workers in Italy. You'll find them in France as well. And other european countries.

And I'm not talking about chinese local communities, people who have migrated long time ago.

I'm talking about the chinese peasant coming directly (sent obviously) from his farm...

Easy to recognize them ! (only our police forces are unable to see them and to control their papers, that they don't have obviously, but that's another story ???? ).

I believe that France will be the next Italy. Then Germany.

Those 2 countries have a lot of chinese tourists and business contacts as well. 

Until someone show me the proof that there is a specific "italian strain", or that italian or iranian have specific genes that the virus is attracted too... I call BS : it's just a "time lag".

France and Germany were infected a little bit later than Italy. Ockam's Razor.

But they will face EXACTLY the same faith.

I wholeheartedly... disagree.

According to my own calculations (and watchout ladies, I use a Cray 72)... Thailand's exports may contract 1.7123983 % this year.

This world needs desperately... precision.

Afterall, we are in Thailand. And some BS virus is not going to shatter our precious forecasts. 

And our wet dreams.

Crotte. Zut.

Actually, he might have an impressive foresight capacity...

Think about it... The Wuwuflu virus is going to seriously downsize... hum... the population of mature individuals.

And since most of the... hum... "generals" with uniforms are not in their prime, let's say... Easy to add 1 to 1.

Hence, it could be a brillant PR stunt to announce now as a "reform".... a simple natural effect that will occur in the coming months.

????

Since my post has been erased. I will ask again the same question.

Why people would bother about thai prostitutes, possibly infected, coming back from South Korea, more than Korean, Chinese, Italian (endless list) possibly infected, arriving in Thailand as tourists (or business trips, or whatever) ?

31 minutes ago, Traubert said:

I think they have the wherewithall to cope with 13 more cases having already seen 80000 dont you?

Great.

We still have people who absolutely do not get it...

I mean : you put a joke on us, right ?

You didn't understand that the point was not the number... but the fact that China is suffering now... EXACTLY the same negative effects that it put before on other countries and dared to complain about ("do not stop flights it hurts our feelings").

China sent us their infected, through flights, and did everything it could to maintain those flights, as long as possible (with the complicity of corrupted gvts and agencies around the world, of course)

We do the same now. We sent them our infected... by the same mean.

Allo ? No ring ? No current between the electrodes ?

Typical.

Instead of focusing on serious issues (close the borders, stop the influx of tourists, why the governement doesn't tests for the virus etc) Thais loose their mind on stupid fake news, with sex (as usual), prostitutes, little ghosts whatever, and big loss of face...

If thai prostitutes (and of course they exist) are coming back from South Korea, and people are afraid... then why do they focus only on those individuals ? 

Why not the tourists, chinese, italian, korean (french, german etc.) ?

Just because they are thai.

It's like the results of coronavirus tests... Communication is very, very slow.

They do not use a normal phone ("you're fired because you are a convicted drug trafficker, euh sorry a bad minister").

They use special thai means of communication (spirits ? Incense ?)

Supreme irony...

Now China imports... cases !

"Zhejiang Province reported 7 new imported cases of COVID-19 from Italy on Tuesday, with one confirmed on Monday, as the total number of imported COVID19 cases from overseas in the Chinese mainland reached 13."

The same stupid reasoning ("don't cut the flights, dont close the borders, it hurts our feelings !") is coming back to bite them in the <deleted>.

Priceless.

"Just the flu" !

Ah sorry.... my mistake.... wrong thread.

????

Tell me how do you "catch" a car accident ?

I'm curious.

If I wear a mask, I'm okay ? And there is a vaccine against car accidents ?

Unfortunately... there is no vaccine against... euh... you know....

11 minutes ago, todlad said:

Te only valid point you made, Christophe, is that the final figure will not be known until the crisis is over. In the meantime, eat your own word, humility, since you are displaying none. Imagine, though, if our public health professionals took your approach of wait and see until everyone who is going to die has died, there would rightly be a major outcry as to why they did nothing!

Thank you to give me the only valid point that actually matters !

I mean, even by saying so, you continue to throw "numbers" ! It's amazing.

And I never that said that we just had to let people die. I'm saying since a few weeks that this virus is not "just a flu".

So what's the point to throw low CFRs, based on bogus and incomplete calculations... just to make the people feel better?

Anyway. I've got something for you.

"The neuroinvasive potential of SARS-CoV-2"

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jmv.25728

A recent chinese study.

We saw "sudden" deaths. In China. In Iran. People collapsing. We discarded those. "drunk people", "video montages", "taiwanese propaganda", etc.

Voilà. Damned... "just the flu" that attacks the nervous system...

You should always go back at the source.

The source is january 23. When China put a city of 11.5 millions people in lockdown.

It was never done before.

Ockam's Razor.

Why they did it ?

Because "just a flu" with a CFR of 0.735635637 % (rounded to the size of my underwear multiplied by the audience of CNN) ?

Wake up !

For the "feel good, just a flu, only 80 years old" brigade.

A very interesting article about... survivors.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/cheating-death-china-wuhan-coronavirus-survivors-recall-ordeal-200218235843994.html

Keyword for the readers : humility. Common sense. Doubt. Homework....

Perfect thai logic.

Cut the landing fees.... will make the airlines land their... empty aircrafts. More.

They will think : "such a bargain in Suva ! Allez send all our float !"

????

I told you that the virus was exciting for every small civil servant, bureaucrats, with a uniform, in this country (AKA all of them).

They can come out and send an inane idea in front of TV cameras and journalists, and look important. In charge.

Its obvious. And it's already a festival.

6 minutes ago, rabas said:

The key is the word general public.  When less than 1 in 10,000,000 people in the US have COVID-19, 10 million masks sold to the public prevents nothing, especially due to hoarding. 10 million masks given to heath care workers is much more effective.

 

They also say one ill health care worker is a double loss. The ill worker and one more to treat them.

I totally disagree.

Civil servants should do their job : mask for the general public AND healthcare providers.

That's the cautious and efficient way to go, when confronted to such a threat.

But to cry like a baby, like a dumb soldier (oxymoron) sending contradictory messages, is counterproductive. And will backfire, like always.

Enough of those bureaucrats.

We are laughing at the situation in Thailand, and for good reasons... but what the US are doing is simply mind boggling (incompetence, spinelessness, sheer stupidity, huge lies, you name it).

And eventually, you'll see that the "numbers" you give are completely wrong. The virus is everywhere in the US.

No test, no case.

I've got a riddle for you.

Who said :

"STOP BUYING MASKS!   They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk! "

Even a child with serious mental deficiency could understand that such statement is inane. Absurd. Mask are not effective, but we need them badly for healthcare providers ? !

It's so stupid that you think the guy is a thai minister, right ?

Wrong.

It's the so called "US Surgeon General".

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/29/health/face-masks-coronavirus-surgeon-general-trnd/index.html

????

Eventually, it's easy to understand... The guy is a... military. Yes. ????

Vice Admiral Jerome Adams

Impossible to make it up. aha h ah ah

And his uniform is shiny like... Prayuth's.

It's not 2019 that is important.

Just another normal year for Thai airways : AKA bad performances, debts, stupid management, bad services, and losses etc.

It's 2020 that will count.

The Wuwuflu virus is, like as said, a destroyer of worlds... Financial ones...

Asian airlines are currently slaughtered (because of the sudden chinese virus)... But imagine if the situation continues (we are almost at end of Q1)... and worsens ?

More routes closed. Less and passengers.

Then even the mighty generals will have to bury themselves Thai Airways.

To avoid a total loss of face the brand will probably perdure.

To sale... airplane models.

1 hour ago, wolf81 said:

Currently the 2% is based on the percentage of people that die of the total that are known 100% sure to have contracted the corona virus. But scientist suspect a lot more people might have contracted the corona virus but didn't have much problems and as such didn't seek aid. If that's true, the percentage of deaths could be quite a bit lower actually.

 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/health/coronavirus-flu.html

Wait a minute... who can believe data coming from China ? Of course they hide the real number of cases.

As well... as the number of deads !

Ergo, the whole "feel good" calculation is going to the drain.

Look at Iran. It's a mystery.... The ratio is not the same.

4 %... (1500 cases, 66 deads)

Hum... More honest numbers ? New strain ? Who could trust the mollahs ? Perhaps they do the contrary of the Chinese : they artificially increase their numbers in order to be seen as victims (so the embargo can be lifted) ?

My point is : China, Iran.... Full stop. Impossible to trust those regimes.

In a few months, if we can have a real study in South Korea for instance, then we will know.

As for now, lets listen to the head of the WHO (presse conference today)

Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, says the new coronavirus "is a unique virus with unique features".

"This virus is not influenza. We have never before seen a pathogen that can transfer between individuals [so easily]."

The same bureaucrat who is telling us since the beginning that it's okay and China is doing such a great job and that closing borders/airlines is bad, and hurt... the feelings (of China).

His tone has changed, obviously.

2 hours ago, Expat Brad said:

Interesting that we have just entered the Chinese "Year of the metal rat" l was told that it means from  great hardships and decline, great rewards will be gained"

I think we all know who will have the hardship and who will gain!!!

Well you know what they say : a disaster for someone is an opportunity for somebody else.

But to some extend.

The "pump it up" economy has ran its course.

Signs were clear, even before the Wuwuflu virus.

We entering an era of "global impoverishment", AKA a nominal drop in wealth (not "slowing growth"). No : nominal. You had 100 before, pouf, you have 50 now.

Rich people... will go down as well.

But like a famous farm, some of them will manage to be more equal than others...

31 minutes ago, wolf81 said:

The Netherlands had it's first corona victim last week and this week it's almost 20 already. I don't believe the Thai numbers either, must be a lot more by now.

 

But to be honest, it's not as dangerous as the media seems to paint it. Currently it seems about 2% - 3% of people die and most of these people are elderly and/or weak because of some sickness like cancer or diabetes. Not much different from seasonal flu.

So 2 % would be okay, is that it ?

But what if 1 billion of people are infected worldwide ?

Hum, that would make 20 millions deads.

Not bad.

I'm ironic of course. But i'm wondering why we are unable to just... read what happened 100 years ago... ?

A "simple flu" and not quite "spanish" killed a nice big bunch of people. More than World War 1....

22 hours ago, Kinnock said:

Why do so many people want to misinterpret the stats?  Is is Thanos syndrome, we all subconsciously want to see the human race decimated?

 

Indeed. I ask you the same question !

????

Your calculation is wrong.

For one simple reason : it make no sense to calculate a ratio number of cases / deads... when... the epidemic is still going on... when X cases TODAY will die... IN THE FUTURE.

Furthermore... and this is a fact.... when this virus can take up to 4 weeks to kill an infected !

So when you write that the CFR, based on korean figures, is "0.5% ..... probably a lot less.".... you are wrong.

And dishonest from an intellectual point of view.

32 minutes ago, ukrules said:

My bet is on the climate.

My bet as well.

But watchout.... I see it as a "moderator".

It slows the virus... But does not cut the risk to 0.

Let's not forget :

-the hell cruise ship (more than 700 infected on 3700) : do you think it was "winter" inside ?

-the crazy "church" in South Korea... Again do you think inside they had minus 5 degres celcius when they congregate ?

-same question for the Hyatt hotel in Singapore... Snow, and frozen temperature inside ?

So my point is simple : Thailand will eat the bitter soup, despite whatever BS they can tell (now they try the "dengue fever"....).

Her turn will come too. Wuwuflu virus is mercyless. And people will die. And many will be infected.

Just at slower pace than other countries.