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Everything posted by Cabradelmar
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Thaksin to return home on August 10, Paetongtarn says
Cabradelmar replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
Not happening. Not while Prayut is still PM. -
Truth is, Thai people at-large are incredibly docile and apathetic (particularly to politics), which has allowed them to be effectively controlled by 90 years of faux democracy constantly undermined by 12 successful military led coup d'etats. Their anger usually only manifest itself into violence when intimate betrayal or financial loss is involved (or they are drunk). Any coordinated sustained objected-based social unrest would quickly wither. The only people in ASEAN who have it worse is Myanmar and Cambodia (with one-party socialist/communist Laos and Vietnam not far behind).
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You abandon them
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And the majority of Thai people will still be no better off... .p. s., Last months prediction was for 24 million by years end... How it's 35... Lol. The BS this country shovels is astounding
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Quick Analysis: With Pita Gone, What Happens Next?
Cabradelmar replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
What seems clear now is the ham-handed way the June 2022 legalization of ganja was hastily handled, that it was more akin to a down payment for Anutin's future support of the junta's candidates. -
Quick Analysis: With Pita Gone, What Happens Next?
Cabradelmar replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
Unfortunately, Pita's political future is entirely in the hands of the CC... they could make him a non-factor for 20 years if he is found to have willfully and knowingly engaged in politics while owning shares in a media company. His long term fate with not be know for months. -
Thai organisations challenge Senate’s prime ministerial authority
Cabradelmar replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
I admire their resolve... however, it is, as the saying goes, "a day late and a dollar short"... Thai people failed to pay attention (in the moment when it matter) when the Junta's constitution was drafted and put in front of the monarchy for acceptance, that it was designed to keep military control over Thai politics and it's people for the foreseeable future.- 30 replies
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Pita does not stand a chance... even "if" the full assembly seats him as PM (that's a big if), he will be ousted by this EC/CC conspired iTV shares situation. Sadly, they have a good case against him. The shares are in a media company (it makes no difference if the company is currently not operating). The company clearly still has assets as the shares are worth nearly $3,000. Pita's own carelessness could ultimately be his undoing.
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I was simply exaggerating (tongue in cheek) the fact that this particular election was "nonbinding" seeing as it was held to elect representatives to a body that does not (sadly) have any real power (i.e., the lower house), because the real power to choose a PM is with the appointed senate (i.e., upper house). The Junta designed the constitution to that very end. Only a super majority (376/500 or 75%) in the lower house can overcome the shackles. The Generals knew what they where doing... the electorate is far to fractured to ever achieve a super majority. Hence, the upper house will likely always get the final say.
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I knew once I saw Prayut make his announcement that he was retiring from politics, that the timing was simply clearing the path for Prawit. They are going to let Pita self destruct, and then make their move. Unless the Phu Thai Party can step up to reconstitute a majority coalition government, with them at the helm, the truly unthinkable will occur... The assembly will seat a minority coalition government.
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They are spitting into the wind... To change the constitution, the proposal needs to be voted on by the entire 750 seat assembly. They need a simple majority (376 of 750) to change the constitution, but they can't even get a simple majority to seat Pita as PM. Not to mention a change in the constitution (if approved by majority vote of the assembly) needs to be voted on by the Thai people, and there is no guarantee it could pass that vote (many people will simply see it as a way to undermine the monarchy). I like Pita, but he is a political novice, and it shows. His advisors are doing him no good. He failed to understand that he has no mandate (he only garnered 151/30% of the MPs from the May referendum), he also failed to understand the emotions tired to sec.112, and he was careless in his preparation (not divesting iTV). The power structure is going to crush him... if not now, then eventually when the EC disqualifies him, or the constitutional court rules on the now open case against that he disrespected the monarchy with his sec.112 position. If he wanted to save his political life he should have backed down from sec.112. He could have then championed all his other initiatives/causes while PM. Now he is likely to end up with nothing, and the country stifled.
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Srettha Thavisin is better than Prawit... and that's who Thailand end up with if not careful
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Pita complains of unfair treatment by the Election Commission
Cabradelmar replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
Sadly, this man will never be prime minister. He was out flanked and outwitted by the generals. He's carelessness with his iTV shares was always going to bring him down (when the power structure so decided they needed to bring him down). He does the country no good by not being seated. And here we are. He should have been better prepared (divesting of iTV) and should have let his les majesty position rest until after his confirmation (then start the good fight). The only hope of not having 4 more years of military rule is if he throws all his MPs and support behind the Pheu Thai candidate for PM. Hopefully she will then disband the 250 seat appointed Senate chamber - because until they are gone democracy can never truely take hold and the people's vote will never be respected. -
Thai tourism surge: 25 million visitors forecasted, boosting economy
Cabradelmar replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
Not everyone from Malaysia... there are day trippers from every country with a land boarder crossing, and they (as is everyone else is) are counted as "tourist"... stat-padding. -
Thai tourism surge: 25 million visitors forecasted, boosting economy
Cabradelmar replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
"projected" 25 million by years end... those are 2014 numbers... still a long way to go to 40 million (pre-covid, 2019). Counting all the Malaysian day-trippers is just stat-padding. -
Love the cheap charlies who think they can get a good haircut for 100-150 baht... A good cut, from someone who can swing a pair of scissors (and not just an electric clipper) is going to cost you 300-500 baht, minimum.
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