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Everything posted by Cabradelmar
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Pita most preferred politician to become Thai PM in NIDA poll
Cabradelmar replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
Well that makes it almost certain that Pita's court case (to be decided in January) will go against him. The existing power structure is afraid of him, and will do everything it their power to restrain his ascension. -
Thailand Pushes ‘Land Bridge’ to Speed Trade
Cabradelmar replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
I pray this does not happen... bringing all those cargo ships to Thailand's shores on the Andaman Sea side (to be off-loaded), and then introducing all that new vessel traffic into the Gulf (to re-load and forwarded) would be an environmental nightmare. Not to mention all the new overland truck and train traffic. The region would be forever changed, and not for the better (certainly not for tourism). Assuming any maritime freight carriers would even want to undertake the additional logistics, complexity and cost (of off-loading, overland forwarding, re-loading) just to save 2 to 5 days of travel time through the Malacca Straits. Given the massive construction cost, environmental concerns, almost certain bottlenecks and delays (seeing as it will be Thai managed) and uncertainty about volumes (who would really use the land bridge), it should be scrapped. -
Schizophrenia with a heavy dose of delusion and disorganization... that is every agency/ministry, in a nutshell. Good luck going from somewhere south of 30 million visitors (probably 28 million, using a bit of creative counting) in 2023, to 40 million in 2024. Do these people not follow world news, or even their own news (press releases) about themselves. LOL.
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Revolutionary reforms: Government’s 90-day plan to boost economy
Cabradelmar replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
In summary... massive populist give-a-ways, and praying for more tourist arrivals. LOL. What the economy needs is more than just a shallow 90-day plan rehashing old ideas. It needs an entire rethink, with massive investment in infrastructure and education to attract and develop high-value, high-growth industries. -
Thai tourism revolution: Duty-free ditch and booze bonanza
Cabradelmar replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
Every recent idea to squeeze more money out of tourist revolves around sell them more booze. LOL. Anyway, buy your duty free at your departure point/on-board, and as long as you don't change planes, you still get duty free booze into Thailand. My guess is if anyone did their homework on duty free spend on booze by arriving passengers at Thailand's international airports, that it's mostly locals returning from abroad. Hopefully this plan gets pitched into the rubbish bin where it belongs. What next, dual pricing of booze at 7-11/Lotus for foreigners. LOL. -
We're on different wavelengths... yours being expenditure-categories focused vs. my industry sub-sector focus. Sure, looking at expenditure categories, tourist spending today looks to account for 12% of GDP. However, to understand the challenges and risk within the industry (and the broader economy), you need to look at the industry level, including emerging trends. We do agree on two things: tourism as 30% of GDP is unrealistic (and by extension, foolish), and arrivals are out of Thailand's control. Variability in arrivals is just one of many risk associated with tourism... jobs created by tourism are slow coming and lower paying, external shocks (e.g., war, socio-economic conditions in other countries) on arrivals, seasonality, and the impact of over-tourism are all significant risk. All of which are going to make it harder to stimulate sustainable consumer spending through tourism. However, investing in diverse higher-paying growth industries would strengthen the Thai economy in real and sustainable ways, and provide more stable consumer spending. But to do that, Thailand is going to need to fix their educational/vocational training systems (IMO).
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The NESDB, Thailand's official economic planning agency, uses a sector-based classification system. As of 2023, the major breakdown is: Service Sector: 56.18% (including wholesale & retail, tourism, finance, real estate, etc.) Industrial Sector: 34.99% (manufacturing, construction, utilities) Agricultural Sector: 8.82% (farming, fishing, forestry) No matter how you cut it, tourism (as a % of total GDP) is a big number and represents a certain level of industry concentration risk: 18% per Nikkei Asia reports. Only manufacturing at 20% is larger - with low profit margin sub-sectors textile & garments, and food processing representing half of that number. The believe it or not, the Thai government aims for the tourism sector to contribute 30% of GDP by 2030. Which seems incredibly rosey/optimistic, not to mention furthering the existing industry concentration risk. When you uncover the details details, Thailand's economy is, at best, while large, sluggish. The only real bright spots are electronics and automotive, but that's < 8% of total GDP.
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Increasingly unsafe (roads and personal), polluted (land, air and sea), scams, corruption, shoddy healthcare, foreign dependency (Chinese tourist)... yep. Unfortunately, this country lives and dies with agriculture and tourism/retail trade... Thailand has yet to face the reality that that is increasingly unwise and unsustainable. Until they start making some fundamental changes to allow for a better educated workforce (so to attract new high-tech manufacturing, etc.), diversify the economy, and attract new investment in growth industries, Thailand will continue to flounder. Agriculture and tourism/retail trade is fine, but it keeps the country poor and growth flat. And populist giveaways are not going to help the people in the long run. Take that money, and a whatever other money They have available to them, and invest in the infrastructure needed to truly lift the people up.
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Thailand’s economic growth potentially in decline, SCB EIC warns
Cabradelmar replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
Nothing new to see here... The economy is failing because the education system is failing. Not to mention poor corporate governance, rampant corruption, and antiquated tax laws. You have to be crazy to want to invest in Thailand. Yet all the PM can think to do is promote more populist giveaways. -
Sub-standard teachers (overpaid and underworked, yet worshiped as untouchable), rote teaching methods and learning, poor facilities (particularly in the rural areas), old textbooks/materials... not to mention compulsory school ending after the 9th grade (at the age of 15 years old)... this is, and will always be, Thailand's achilles heal in hopes of any meaningful economic, political and social development.
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Anutin Orders Strict New Year Road Safety Measures
Cabradelmar replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
and nothing will change/improve... and anyone who has ever had to get a thai DL knows why. Thais are terrible drivers, terribly educated/training on how to drive safely, for starters. -
Taiwan seeking answers over hit and run death in Bangkok
Cabradelmar replied to snoop1130's topic in Bangkok News
This is pitiful on so many levels. A human in need dies because Thailand hospital is too worried about money. It would serve the country right if tourist would just stop coming here all together. -
COVID-19 infections rising, public advised to wear face masks
Cabradelmar replied to webfact's topic in Thailand News
I'm more concerned about the dirty air (> 2.5 ppm). That's a respiratory illness just waiting to happen. -
The level of self-awareness (or simply denial) by Thai authorities is astounding. Pattaya is what it is. Nothing new, nothing changed. It would not be a stretch to image a Thailand, without its sex-datination reputation, losing at least 5-10 million tourist arrivals on any given year. Which is why it will never change.
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Violent Altercation Erupts at Nightclub, Leaving Several Injured
Cabradelmar replied to webfact's topic in Bangkok News
Fault and cause aside, the one thing you can be assured of is that in bars frequented by large numbers of young Thais, the Thais are likely armed (mainly with knives but increasingly with guns). And if they aren't armed in the moment they will be soon once an argument breakouts. Foolishly is to argue, particularly, if you are a foreigner. Step back is the only and best advise. -
Pattaya police explain alleged bribery in child prostitution case
Cabradelmar replied to webfact's topic in Pattaya News
The level of ongoing and deeply embedded corruption within Thailand is never surprising, but always disappointing.