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brokenbone

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Posts posted by brokenbone

  1. 15 hours ago, Lacessit said:

    In your opinion. Mine is different, and I do have the training as a scientist.

    Debunking via Breitbart or Fox news is not debunking. It's lying.

    what kind of science accept this cherry picking as legit statistics ?

    on a 2nd thought, dont tell, only ever climate science

    have such abysmal mathematical and analytical qualifications.

    go back and finish your math lessons, for gods sake.

    if you want to extract any data beside bias of the author out of this,

    try divide 75 with 3146 for the consensus aspect. (2% consensus)

     

    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2009eo030002

    In 2008 Margaret Zimmerman asked two questions of
    10,257 Earth Scientists at academic and government institutions. 3146 of them responded.
    That survey was the original basis for the famous “97% consensus” claim.

    For the calculation of the degree of consensus among experts in the Doran/Zimmerman article,
    all but 79 of the respondents were excluded. They wrote:

    “In our survey, the most specialized and knowledgeable respondents
    (with regard to climate change) are those who listed climate science as
    their area of expertise and who also have published more than 50% of
    their recent peer-reviewed papers on the subject of climate change
    (79 individuals in total).
    Of these specialists, 96.2% (76 of 79) answered “risen”
    to question 1 and 97.4% (75 of 77) answered yes to question 2.”

    The basis for the “97% consensus” claim is this excerpt:

    [of] “the most specialized and knowledgeable respondents
    (with regard to climate change)… 97.4% (75 of 77) answered yes to question 2.”

     

     Q1: “When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures
    have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?”   
    76 of 79 (96.2%) answered “risen.”

     Q2: “Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor
    in changing mean global temperatures?”   75 of 77 (97.4%) answered “yes.”

    Q1. When compared with pre-1800's levels, do you think that
    mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?
    1. Risen
    2. Fallen
    3. Remained relatively constant
    4. No opinion/Don't know
     
    Q2. Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in
    changing mean global temperatures?  
    [This question wasn’t asked if they answered “remained relatively constant” to Q1]
    1. Yes
    2. No
    3. I'm not sure
     
    Q3. What do you consider to be the most compelling argument that supports your previous answer
    (or, for those who were unsure, why were they unsure)?
    [This question wasn’t asked if they answered “remained relatively constant” to Q1]

    Q4. Please estimate the percentage of your fellow geoscientists who think
    human activity is a contributing factor to global climate change.
     
    Q5. Which percentage of your papers published in peer-reviewed journals in
    the last 5 years have been on the subject of climate change?
     
    Q6. Age
     
    Q7. Gender
     
    Q8. What is the highest level of education you have attained?
     
    Q9. Which category best describes your area of expertise?

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
  2. 1 hour ago, chainarong said:

    Why should the biggies stuff their economy and people employed up, putting thousands out of work because coal mines are now all shut down in a knee jerk reaction that isn't going to solve anything except introducing massive anti social behavior, you need to change to renewable energy gradually and retain a power base load, if there's remedial action to be taken it should be taken at a speed that each country can afford, the only thing that can be noted is the air pollution covering most of China wasn't put there by panda bears.

    i second this, and it is the course currently taken,

    i.e western countries employing some experimental alternatives

    all the while trying to figure out how to cram out any efficiency out of

    it to make it commercially viable.

    rest of the world shouldnt bother until if and when it becomes competitive,

    save for extremely remote areas that the grid dont reach

    and is too uneconomical to build

    • Like 1
  3. On 12/13/2019 at 9:52 PM, Jingthing said:

    More like it SHOULD happen but probably won't.

     

    I recommend people watch Simon Reeve's The Americas which touches on a lot of direct evidence of these changes already happening. Particularly dramatic is the testimony of a pilot in Alaska who has been flying over the same glacial area for decades.  

     

    even more dramatic is that arctic has been warming at the rate of 0.5 degree celsius per year and 97% scientists say theres no end to it.

    what will become of earth ?, scientists ask

     

     

    https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/69638689

     

     

    melting 1939.jpg

  4. i wrote a post on two tide gauges in bkk area showing entirely different readings,

    one predicting flood by 2050 and the other gauge predicting flood by year 8000.

     

    i later referenced back to that post in two other threads where the issue

    of bkk flooding came up

    rather then post it all over again, but now that post is gone

     

    first pic is a reply containing my original post that is now gone,

    the others show or should show my link

    what happened ?

    moderator incompetence.jpg

    link to post.jpg

    link to post 2.jpg

  5. 15 minutes ago, Krataiboy said:

    Brokenbone beat me to it, debunking the dubious "facts" in your response to the sources I cited in relation to arctic ice.

     

    That said, here's an interesting alternative theory about what is going on with our climate. Don't waste your time checking it out with Snopes, a one-man- and-his-dog outfit about as reliable as Thailand's new Ministry of Truth.

     

     

    such a fresh breath of anyone giving a sh!t looking at long term cycles,

    activists invariably pick a recent peak and start history from there,

    the big picture gets lost without fail

    • Thanks 1
  6. 4 minutes ago, Tippaporn said:

    So, how long do I have, Doc?

    depend on which gauge you read, prognosis ranges from 30 to 6000 years,

    activists unable to distinguish correlation from causation would undoubtedly say you got 30 years

    https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1138234-activist-thunberg-denounces-creative-pr-in-climate-fight/?do=findComment&comment=14852391

    • Like 1
    • Haha 1
  7. 1 hour ago, stuandjulie said:

    tell that to dinosaurs, also you really need to understand what global warming means, it does not mean everyone is getting hotter, eventually some places will get colder, it is also about sea levels, habitable areas, loss of life etc.

    yo, einstein, dinosaurs hit an asteroid, the analogy isnt climate change.

    the analogy is a fat fusion bomb.

    other phenomena that has been speculated as wiping out species

    unrelated to atmosphere is gamma radiation

  8. 14 minutes ago, Misab said:

    Also you write:  “Many scientists believe the research that shows the level of CO2 is a function of temperature rise, not the cause of it.

     

    Could you please tell me which scientist there believe that because as far as I know, this is exactly the propaganda oil companies sends out.  But it can be reality when sea water gets too warm and release the stored CO2  then we will really be in trouble

    look from 19.15 to at least 21 minutes

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYhCQv5tNsQ

     

  9. 1 minute ago, Misab said:

    The various heating and cooling  periods of the planet before man existed happened over thousands of years, wildlife had time to adopt. This time it is happening over a few generations

     

    yes, we can see how stuff has escalated as of late

    sea level rise.jpg

    wildfires.jpg

    Holocene_Temperature_Variations.png

    • Like 1
  10. 26 minutes ago, Laza 45 said:

    If your attention span allows it ..check out the facts..  

    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/does-arctic-ice-doubt-reality-climate-change/

     

    why am i not surprised the graphs started at the peak year 1978

    to give the impression of a downward trend rather then a cycle ?

    this has the fingerprint of creative accounting,

    mother nature has its cycles, always had always will,

    the alarmists cherry pick starting dates, hide temper and even destroy

    previous data, and show a trend starting from a peak,

    which can only go in one direction by default,

    until it hit the opposite peak according to the wave progression

    sea ice extent.jpg

    cyclical ice.jpg

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