chessman

I don’t see this as about the perceived risk from foreign people.

they want to open it as a place of worship, not as a tourist attraction. That’s fair enough.
 

whoever wrote that sign should have a better understanding of how discriminatory it sounds and the way it will be interpreted. If it said ‘open only to Buddhists who wish to pray’ the effect would be almost the same and nobody would be bothered at all.

There was an article in the Bangkok post a few days ago that one of the measures the BMA would implement would be they wouldn’t allow air con in schools. That will be brutal if true.

1 hour ago, utalkin2me said:

Now it is being reported by studies and by the WHO that the risk of asymptomatic carriers infecting others is very rare. https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/931984

WHO are already walking this back.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/09/world/coronavirus-updates.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage#link-452d2061

1 hour ago, utalkin2me said:

Flu global annual estimated deaths (high end quoted from a study): 650,000

Up to 650,000. You’re taking the very highest number (why not say 290,000 or the mid point between them?) it can be over a whole year and most importantly those flu deaths are worked out in a completely different way.
 

What will happen when the same researchers use the same methodology and make calculations on the numbers of Covid deaths that are triple (or more) the day to day count? Because that will occur.

it’s not a flu.

you made up figures from Sweden and now you’re twisting this because your anger/annoyance at the economic issues makes you blind to rational arguments about the severity of the virus.
 

1 hour ago, utalkin2me said:

There are about 4,000 flu deaths in Sweden every year. 

That would be news to the Swedish health authorities that report much lower figures.

34 minutes ago, Monomial said:

When nobody trusts the numbers and statistics being put out by different governments according to dozens of different standards it is impossible to justify anything. Might be wrong. Might not. Who knows really. I don't. You don't. Even the researchers don't. They can only make models based on the data available. If the data is faulty, then the model will be bad as well. We'll only really know the truth a decade from now.

 

I can say this. If you didn't have all these sources, and if all you knew was what you could see and hear around you, would you have even known there was a virus, or would you simply have said "Hope I don't catch the flu" and gone about your business? Even in Italy and New York I doubt people would have been running for the hills like the Black Death. There might have been a few tent hospitals at worst like in 1918. And ultimately I doubt the world would have even hiccuped if not for governments screaming the sky is falling.

 

The real problem is that this virus just isn't scary enough or deadly enough that people are willing to accept the global (over)reaction to it. What people *DO* see however, what is absolutely crystal clear, is their livelihoods being destroyed by these lockdowns and restrictions.

 

The governments of the world are going to have a lot to answer for when the dust settles if this virus doesn't ultimately look like the big bad boogeyman they made it out to be. I see alot of rhetoric and spin in the near future. And I see many PhD thesis for historians about this period for a century to come.

High numbers of worldwide flu deaths are calculated with models that look at all-cause mortality, that is why the figures are often given as a range.

Covid deaths are calculated by doctors making decisions on cause of death, almost always with a Positive test. You can question this all you want but analysis of all-cause mortality suggest that these deaths are actually being undercounted. 
 

if your seriously think that the data is so incomplete that you don’t have an opinion on whether Covid is worse than the flu, I would suggest your anger over the economic issues is blinding you about the Public health crisis.

in Italy, for example, they have had 100s of doctors die after catching Covid. They have had hospitals, in their busiest time,  where hundreds and hundreds of nurses and other staff were on sick leave after showing symptoms. Is this normal for flu?
 

when the dust settles, the picture will be immensely complicated and I would imagine your simplistic reading of economic catastrophe caused by government over-reaction will be mainly made by a small group of right wing loudmouths. What governments in Europe will have to answer for will be their lack of serious preparation in January and February, the fact that they did too little and they did it too late.

3 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Some countries are more honest in their reporting than others.

 

A good example of this is Russia.

just in St. Petersburg, 1552 more people died (of all causes) in May 2020 than last year. Only 171 officially died of Covid. So it is likely that The real Russian death toll Is much higher.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/04/st-petersburg-death-tally-casts-doubt-on-russian-coronavirus-figures

9 hours ago, impulse said:

The difference between Sweden and Norway may simply be that Swedish autopsies look harder for Covid.  Maybe they test 100% of their bodies while Norway only tests symptomatic deaths.  The truth is, I don't know.  But I'd trust the judgment of a guy with his name on 183 epidemiology research papers before I'd trust someone posting on TVF.

If you want to play the research papers game, how about the scientific committees of most developed countries in the world that endorsed Some kind of lockdown?  Am betting there are 100,000s of research papers with their names. How do you feel about their judgement?
 

your point about autopsies is almost certainly wrong. Both Norway and Sweden publish data about all-cause mortality. Norway is having less deaths than usual (was not a bad flu season + not many Covid deaths). Sweden’s has a huge Covid spike in Deaths in April. Many more people than usual are dying in Sweden but they are not in Norway. 

5 hours ago, Monomial said:

What is certain however, is that these choices have decimated the economy and are going to lead to millions of collateral deaths due to extreme poverty and psychological issues that would not have occurred without lockdowns

People constantly write things like this... but go and look what happened to mortality in the US from 1929-1933, the years of the great depression. 

5 hours ago, impulse said:

But the point of the linked opinion piece is that the total deaths will be the same, regardless of whether you have 30,000 a month dying for 6 months or 15,000 a month dying for 12 months.  The lockdown just spreads them out over a slightly longer period.

So the letter writer suggests... but do you honestly think that Norway's mortality will ever approach Sweden's? Norway that were able to manage the spread when they were most vulnerable, when very little was known about the virus? 

10 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

The objectives of the lock down were to prevent the health services from being overwhelmed after an new 'novel' virus spread across the world. Nothing was known about it at the time, projections showed the devastating potential of this new and unstudied virus.

 

The virus is not as deadly as we first believed, the heath services have not been overwhelmed.

 

The lock down was the correct decision initially, continued now seems pointless.

Those in high risk groups and those who would have contact with them could choose to isolate while the world moves on.

 

I can only suspect that any decisions to continue the lock down are taken out of fear of criticism when someone becomes severely ill from Covid-19.

 

We will continue to live with Covid-19 and the risks associated with Covid-19 years from now.

Perhaps a Vaccine will be found, but remember, the influenza vaccine is between 40 and 60% effective. Could we assume that any Vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 to be equally as effective meaning many people remain at risk.

 

As more testing continues, it is becoming recognised that more people have had Covid-19 without symptoms, the Case Fatality Rates are low (still double that of Influenza - which has a vaccine).

 

Question: if we had a vaccine that was 99% effective would we (humanity) be happy? because it should be noted that we already have more 99.8% effective protection when the CFR is 0.2%

 

Food for thought - All decisions now are not made for the benefit of the people and the future, but out of fear of criticism.

You are mixing up CFR and IFR. The CFR (Not really a useful statistic though) is much much higher than 0.2% and it is likely that the IFR will be significantly higher too.

You say that continued lockdowns are pointless but they are now being lifted almost everywhere. This may seem slow to some but there is sense in these things being done incrementally and with some caution. Nevertheless, the world will be significantly more open at the end of this month than it was on May 1st.

5 minutes ago, tribalfusion001 said:

According to the governments figures there is no covid-19 in Thailand

1. This is not true, there are still people in hospitals with Covid 19

2. The government reports new cases that have tested positive, but it is generally accepted that every country has more cases than the official figures.

Just now, tribalfusion001 said:

The R number in Thailand is 0.

you really think so?

Of the virus itself it is 2.5 - 4. 

Has published correspondence from a Swedish doctor and professor. 
 

if you want academic papers with research that shows the benefits of lockdown there are plenty.

The R0 reproductive rate is thought to be in the range of 2.5-4. That’s high enough to spread quickly if unchecked but it’s also low enough to make it very very unlikely (but not impossible) that you would pass it to strangers in a situation where both people were being cautious. 
 

It makes sense for there to be social distancing regulations because it makes people think about the risks but I think most people also understand that the risks currently in Thailand are very very low.

35 minutes ago, utalkin2me said:

We do happen to know economic shutdowns kill many. 

Go and look up what happened to mortality during the Great Depression in the USA. The results may surprise you.