chessman

20 hours ago, Crazy Alex said:

Which do you prefer in Colorado? The old way of counting virus deaths or the new way?

New way seems better. Seems a good idea to trust doctors to make decisions on why people have died. There should be more transparency with other numbers too. The average age of deaths, the overall number of deaths in the state compared with previous years.

12 hours ago, Walker88 said:

I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest Dr Fauci knows more about viruses, epidemiology, pathology and statistics that the OP or any of those supporting the OP's post. If my suggestion or assumption is incorrect, go ahead and post your credentials and accept my apology.

 

Despite that famous Mark Twain quip, statistics do reveal important trends. There is a statistically normal rate of death in any population over a given period. Models are based on them. Models are adjusted for population size. Insurance companies use such models to set premium levels. One can be sure insurers recognize the trend.

 

When the number of deaths runs way above trend, that represents an 'outlier', and scientists and statisticians will look into it to see what might have been causing it. They will look at coroner reports and hospital records to see what was determined or listed as the cause of death. If it is pneumonia or some other ailment strongly linked to CV-19, then that raises a red flag. These deaths are not necessarily added to the CV-19 total, but if the body has yet to be interred, blood samples can be taken to see if CV-19 is present. Remember that these are deaths above trend, or 'outliers' using the term from statistics.

 

Dr Fauci, when he makes a statement that he believes total CV-19 deaths are higher than reported, he is falling back on both his expertise as an epidemiologist and one comfortable with statistics. Still, the 'outlier' deaths, even those whose cause per the death certificate was pneumonia or other maladies associated with CV-19, are not added to the total. Another problem has been the scarcity of reliable tests, as the US has only administered 11.5 million total tests as of this writing.

 

It is a fact that the death rate in the US for 2020 is running approximately 150,000 above the norm, though only 90,000 so far have been added to the CV-19 total. "Something" has caused that rate to run way above trend. For those who died, and for their loved ones, the argument as to the cause makes precious little difference. They're dead, and they are dying at rates far in excess of death rates one would expect using the models that even insurance companies use in the actuarial calculations. To what do those arguing against the CV-19 totals attribute these far above normal rate deaths?

 

Go ahead and believe whatever you wish. It makes no difference. Denying the danger of CV-19, however, would be most unwise for anyone who is obese, a smoker, has Type II diabetes, is older than 60, has high blood pressure, has an underlying condition like COPD, asthma or emphysema, or just has bad luck.

Very noticable that posts like this are basically ignored by people who desperately want to prove their conspiracies.

I guess it's difficult to argue with posts written with clarity and logic.

I will add that Swine flu had 18,000 lab confirmed deaths but scientists and statisticians estimated the true number to be at least 10 times more than that. The upper range estimates are 30 times more. It is normal for analysis of mortality data to show that deaths during pandemics are underestimated. It is very likely to be the same with COVID 19. Initial data on excess deaths show this clearly. 

5 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

I find it disgusting to look at the death stats of the countries hoping that the countries with the model I don't like have more deaths than the countries with the models I like.

I wish best success to all of them. 

I don't think anybody is doing that. I have a lot of family in Sweden and try to be as objective as possible, I certainly don't want harm to come to Sweden or the people of any country.

But you need to quote those figures showing mortality because they are worrying. A lot of these arguments started when Sweden had similar figures to Denmark and Norway...  It is very noticeable that the trend is not looking good for Sweden. Not only are the figures high but they are increasing more than in other countries.

22 minutes ago, nauseus said:

I think that everyone knows coronavirus and HIV vaccinations are not yet available.

and even though there is no vaccine for HIV, we have become much more successful in treating it. Deaths are half of what they were in 2005 despite more than 10 times the number of cases.

Putting trust in science and medical professionals to find solutions is what we need to do.

2 hours ago, simple1 said:

The point the member was making in attempting to compare deaths by poverty due to unemployment to Covid-19 doesn't stack up. Currently during the Covid crisis Congress has authorised an additional $600 p.w. for the unemployed, similar initiatives are happening in other Western countries (here in Oz not as generous as the US, an additional $250 p.w) but Oz enjoys universal health care.

 

In the US, as they would be in other Western countries, poverty related deaths are due to a number of lifestyle causes e.g. smoking, illegal drugs, bad diet choices and so on. At the moment in the US increase in deaths due to Covid far exceed customary death rates. e.g.

Indeed. The mortality rate in the US actually went down during the Great Depression. Life expectancy increased at the same time. Deaths from suicides did go up but most other causes of deaths were down.

1 hour ago, Stygge said:

The figures about the Somalis are correct

6 out of the first 15 deaths in Stockholm were Somalis. That is where they get 40% from. 

1 hour ago, JensenZ said:

That's a good point. A quick look at tourism statistics reveals 417,000 (2018) East Asian people visiting Sweden. East Asia includes China, Japan, Taiwan and Korea.

 

Italy, by comparison, had 2.2 million, over 5 times as many.

 

And the really big difference is that Sweden gets about 5.2 million European tourists annually, compared to Italy's 82.84 million, France 70 million, Spain 72 million and Germany 30 million, UK 27 million, which is probably the source of most infections in Europe.

Also, it seems northern Italy was the first area in Europe to be really badly affected. Think of all the direct flights between northern Italy and the UK. Just the London - Milan route is about 20 flights a day. And all those budget airlines that seem to have more flights from/to the UK. 
 

a city being an international hub also seems to be a big factor... think of London and New York.

5 minutes ago, ukrules said:

Interesting, where are you getting this from? The bit about the Somalis

From articles like this.

https://www.hstoday.us/subject-matter-areas/counterterrorism/when-religion-and-culture-kill-covid-19-in-the-somali-diaspora-communities-in-sweden/

it’s well meaning but the 40% comes from 6 out of the first 15 deaths in Stockholm... it’s not an up to date number.

17 minutes ago, steelepulse said:

If one were to look at the stats, 40% of all deaths in Sweden were from the Somali population

6 of the first 15 deaths in Sweden were Somali. This was well publiciced and people started saying 40%. Of course 3600 have died since then so that 40% stat wouldn’t be applicable. 

1 minute ago, yuyiinthesky said:

If you want to examine the influence or importance of density, then look at Stockholm and London, compare them, not at the beautiful but empty forests, where not many people live beneath the trolls and elks, not even corona viruses.

Yeah but it’s the amount of urban centres. And how close they are to each other.  Sweden has one and it was really badly affected. The UK has many more large urban centres and they are all much closer. 

2 minutes ago, kingdong said:

all the so called experts ( apart from the ones on Thai visa ) still haven,t got a clue.

I truly hope this is the kind of thing you might say in a pub (shame the pubs are closed) to get a discussion going and not something you actually believe.

1 minute ago, yuyiinthesky said:

Sweden's cases have been mainly in Stockholm, and Stockholm has a density even higher than London. So you could compare Stockholm with London, if you want to compare similar density.

This argument doesn’t make sense. What you are saying shows that density is really important...

3 minutes ago, Susco said:

So you agree that the Sweden results are nothing special, and are not applicable to other countries for many reasons?

I think they are more applicable to Denmark, Norway and Finland. And the comparison does not look good for Sweden.

my point was that population density is important but is not the only factor. 

3 minutes ago, Susco said:

Need to explain more?

You could explain the other factors that are to Sweden’s advantage such as one of the highest percentages of ‘single’ households in the world.

you could also suggest they compare Sweden to it’s neighbouring countries that are more demographically, culturally and geographically similar. 

14 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

So if the would be no immunity to SARS-CoV-2 this would be an exception, different to what is seen with all the other corona viruses.

The common cold? That’s a Coronavirus that most people are able to catch multiple times.

22 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

This seems to be also the reason why the case and death numbers in Sweden are falling already, despite not having reached an infection rate of 50-70% of the population yet.

The numbers are certainly looking slightly better in Sweden. Cases depends on testing, with deaths there is a big lag but a key one is the number in intensive care because that’s probably the best reflection of the situation on the day they announce the figures. The numbers in intensive cases are falling.

would be interesting to know if this is really because people are getting immunity or if it is more because they came up with much stricter rules in care homes. My guess would be that the latter is impacting the number of deaths more.

7 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

At the least he could have developed a better computer OS

Haha, did you ever try the ones we had before windows? 

7 hours ago, Monomial said:

Why does everyone keep worrying about the death toll? It is going to be whatever it is going to be.

You are right of course, if the death doll is 300,000 or 600,000 or 900,000 it doesn’t fundamentally change the argument.

in terms of psychology it interests me though. People who were against the lockdown initially and wish to open up immediately will trust any argument that leads in that direction. People are still trying to argue that the numbers of dead are inflated... Well, just as there is very strong evidence that the mortality rate is lower than initially thought, there is also strong evidence that the number of deaths is being underestimated. People should be willing to accept that both are likely to be true.

8 hours ago, tlock said:

Ah I understand- so you estimate there are actually 3 million covid deaths in the last 3 months?  I'd be scared too if I thought that.

 No, I think the focus on Covid means that they are missing less deaths than they did with Swine flu. There are excess deaths in the developed countries worst hit but they are not double. In less developed countries with worse health infrastructure it could be much more than double but a lot of these countries are reporting low figures so if you multiply their numbers by ten you still get fairly low numbers. My best guess would be that the true number of deaths are between double and triple the official count of 300,000ish.

16 minutes ago, tlock said:

If that's the case, I think the same thing will happen to the number of infections as well no?  Estimates are 700 million to 1.6 billion people worldwide had swine flu, and we barely noticed it.

Yes, but the number of deaths is much higher with COVID, that is why there is a different policy. Comparing the numbers calculated in the same way. 18,000 confirmed deaths after a year of Swine flu... 300,000 in a couple of months for COVID

17 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

Interesting article. You wonder what percentage is covid and what percentage is people hiding from hospital as so many are doing. I could see both possible results for my aged parents as they seclude themselves in NJ.

 

I think in the end they are going to have real problems figuring out the actual numbers of what happened.

You are right, it's difficult. But I think it's almost impossible to attribute all those 'excess' deaths to people avoiding hospitals. Especially as some common killers (such as road accidents) are actually down due to lock downs.

It's also interesting to note that during the Swine flu the running total of deaths was 18,000 by the end. Now, most experts believe the real number was more than 10 times that. Deaths are difficult to count accurately during a pandemic, especially people who die at home or in care homes. The same thing will be happening with Covid 19.

13 minutes ago, Crazy Alex said:

Given the motives of money and sensationalism, deaths being underestimated does not seem likely.

Then you are burying your head in the sand.

remember - just because you disagree with the lockdown, that doesn’t automatically mean that people are inflating the deaths.

read this

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

This one has a coherent argument rather than the conjecture from the newspaper link you provided.

2 hours ago, yuyiinthesky said:

For me this is about Bill Gates not being trustworthy. And to repeat my non-vaccine example: If his charity pushes genetically modified rice to farmers, making them dependent on buying seeds from Monsanto, and is at the same time shareholder of Monsanto, benefitting from Monsanto's success, then this is not charity, but cheating, bad, and not making him a trustworthy philanthropist. 

You’re making a lot of assumptions here. 
 

look here - https://www.unicef.org/philippines/child-survival

95 children dying a day in the Philippines from malnutrition.

having a type of rice that provided more nutrition may actually be a good thing.

the arguments about GMO crops run deep and I’m sympathetic to them but it’s amazing to me that you can be so sure he has nefarious motives in these actions. 

11 minutes ago, otherstuff1957 said:

Certainly Thailand, and other low casualty countries should be phasing out the lockdown. 

And they are.