cdemundo

7 hours ago, hioctane said:

95% efficacy means if 100 people took the vaccine, 5 still got infected. 

Pfizer had 43660 subjects in trial.

Total infections in both placebo and vaccinated group was 170.

There were 162 infections in the placebo group and 8 in the vaccinated group.

If there were 21830 vaccinated subjects, 5% would be 1091 so no, that is not how efficacy is calculated.  

Placebo (unvaccinated) group

162/ 21830 x 100,000 = 742 infections per 100,000 people

(multiply by 100,000 and it clarifies as we are not talking about fractional people.)

Vaccinated group

8/ 21830 x 100,000 = 37 infections per 100,000 people

Difference in infection rates = 742 - 37 = 705  fewer infections per 100,000 people

Unvaccinated rate of infection = 742 infections per 100,000 people

Reduction of rate = 705  fewer infections per 100,000 people

705/742 x 100% = 95% efficacy rate.

11 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Even if vaccinated, you can still have the virus and shed. Asymptomatic.

I don't think that is known.

The trials were not intended to test if that was the case or not, they were only intended to test prevention of illness.

So no answer yes or no on the question of if the vaccines prevent transmission of the virus.

On 1/11/2021 at 11:06 PM, Dart12 said:

...already people are having higher bad reactions to it than covid itself. 

I hesitate to call this a lie, but it is certainly an untruth.

Not remotely true, more than 29 million have already been vaccinated.  Have there be even 50 bad reactions?

As others have said, in a large group such as this there will be many adverse, even fatal, health events in any period of time selected.

Additionally, a persistent argument of the COVID hoax conspiracy theorists is that many of the deaths attributed to COVID are actually due to the underlying conditions of the persons who died.  Same argument applies here certainly.

The question here IMHO is not if you can choose to decline the vaccine, of course you can decline it.  The question here is whether the vaccine is causing the bad health outcomes being reported.

Yes you can.

Helps if your degree is in education.

Yes a TEFL certificate helps.

Schools who accept non-native English speakers have conditions such as the following TOEIC test score with differing minimum scores from school to school.

"For non-native English speakers, must be a proficient user of English language: TOEIC (600 or more)"

post hoc ergo propter hoc; Logic 101 common fallacies.

The strange thing about True Believers is that even though the Storm didn't come they will still believe.  The Millerite Christian Sect  thought the 2nd Coming was gonna happen in 1844, when it didn't come they called it The Great Disappointment.  Millerites went on to found two new denominations that are still around today.  I think that somehow they always find a way to explain failures of prophecy so faith is even stronger.

3 hours ago, Emdog said:

Not the sharpest pencils in the box, this crowd.

Nice of them not to wear covid masks, so identification so much easier with full face photos

At least one has already gotten the pink slip from his employer (US News) 

"One of the people shown in the D.C. police photos wore his work identification badge inside the capitol and was identified and fired by his employer"

Probably a great loss to his employer with that kind of foresight. 

17 hours ago, robblok said:

The freedom of speech in the US is a great good but its sad there is no possibility to punish a president who is inciting riots with proven lies. That he won by a landslide and massive voter fraud.

 

Why is there no mechanism to punish proven falsehoods. I like freedom of speech but just like with anti vaxers they spread so much proven lies and Trump too. I know it beats a state controlled media. But this isnt perfect either.  

It may be the case that incitement to violence is not protected speech.  I am no lawyer but I have heard this being discussed on TV news.

1 hour ago, mtls2005 said:

History will contrast the bookends...

 

a ride down an escalator

 

inciting insurrection

 

 

 

Anyone who knew anything about trump would have expected no less.

 

 

I think Bill Maher has been predicting that Trump would incite violence when he lost the election.  I thought it was unthinkable even for Trump, guess I was wrong.

2 hours ago, harada said:

A fair indication of the intelligence of these people, having your face on TV worldwide unmasked smashing the Capitol windows and having selfies taken inside, surely this would have to be a federal offence, anyone know ?

Apparently "Trespassing on Federal Property".  I understand that no one thought to legislate a prohibition against the unthinkable.

On 1/3/2021 at 11:37 PM, John Drake said:

Before I take a vaccine, I want to know which one it is. No Chinese or Russian vaccines for me. I want the Moderna or the upcoming J&J single shot. But I'll wait to see how its effect on initial recipients first.

I had the first Moderna jab last Saturday.

Zero side effects.  But of course I might be autistic tomorrow.

On 6/30/2020 at 8:05 PM, wwest5829 said:

Just a friendly note. The bubonic plague is caused by a bacteria and is still with us. It is treatable now unlike in earlier mass outbreaks.

I noticed that as well.  The problem with a lot of these discussions about the pandemic is that they are an exercise in "pooling ignorance" rather than "pooling knowledge".  I studied biology at uni and complained in grad school about all the cell biology we were required to study that I thought was irrelevant.  Still I am overwhelmed with what I don't know about the science related to the pandemic.  Some posters here are very knowledgeable, but I am not always sure about who knows their stuff and who just sounds plausible.

Merry Christmas!!!

41 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

 

Placing US and UK tourist numbers in proper context when considering their contribution to Thailand's tourist receipts:

 

USA: 8th place.

 

UK: 12th place.

 

Combined, they are still only in 4th place with less than 10% of the volume of the two leading international tourist sources combined.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Thailand#International_rankings

 

Reference: statistics for the period 1998–2016, 2017–2018.

 

It's called 'a hill of beans'.

Oh, my mistake.  I thought you were comparing the UK and the USA.  I don't know how I got that idea.  

6 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

 

Scotland hopes to be the first part of the UK administering the vaccine next Tuesday.

 

The quantities delivered initially to the UK will be low until the cold-chain and delivery logistics right to the patient's arm have been pressure-tested.

 

The UK care home residents, their carers, staff and NHS workers will be the first priority. I don't see any of that demographic booking flights to Thailand in time for Songkran.

 

As for the US... well... even if they do get it rolled out, they have never been a significant factor in Thai tourism.

"As for the US... well... even if they do get it rolled out, they have never been a significant factor in Thai tourism."

2019 Arrivals in Thailand by nationality:

USA    1,167,845

UK         994,018

From wikipedia article "Tourism in Thailand" referencing Thailand arrivals from various nations:

Wikipedia references as source:   "สถิติด้านการท่องเที่ยว ปี 2562 (Tourism Statistics 2019)". Ministry of Tourism & Sports. Retrieved 23 January 2020.

34 minutes ago, polpott said:

There won't be many vaccinated in the 1st quarter. In Europe, probably towards the end of next year before enough people have been vaccinated to create a national herd immunity. In the US even longer as half the nation seem to be "anti vaxers". I can understand why Thailand wants to vaccinate the majority of Thais to create a herd immunity in Thailand, rather than rely on other countries to vaccinate their own. Can't see that happening much before the end of the year either. Maybe they should concentrate on vaccinating Thais in tourist centres/Bangkok first.

I would think in the UK and the USA there would be a significant number of people vaccinated in three months.  UK is starting with highest risk group already.  USA will be starting soon as well.  Of course we will see how smoothly it goes.

On 8/31/2020 at 10:06 PM, CorpusChristie said:

On the other hand, Trump doesnt agree with violent protestors who are systematically burning down the USA  , and he sympathizes with people trying to stop them ?

"systematically burning down the USA"

Wow, didn't know about that.

That changes everything.

4 hours ago, papa al said:

papa is 71.

Have never had the flu.

Have never been vaccinated vs. flu.

Same my parents.

Is that not natural resistance?

Yes.

But not herd immunity or we would not know the word flu.

On 11/12/2020 at 8:07 PM, BobBKK said:

 

Be careful what you wish for. Biden will probably send USA to war again, the libs will screech about minority rights and attack the silent majority, and the debt will go up and up and the libs tears will go down and down. The pendulum will, inevitably, swing back one day. Biden is a much nicer man than Trump, undoubtedly, but he's going to be a figurehead as he fumbles his way through his 4 years (if he makes it to the end).

Well, you speak as one having authority...

10 hours ago, klauskunkel said:

Trump supporters: Do you ever critically examine the statements from your leader, or do you just absorb everything he says?

I think you are on to something.  They absorb, similar to a sponge, which is a living thing, but a thing of very very limited intelligence.