AndrewMciver

On 6/5/2020 at 7:22 PM, Visarghhhh said:

It should be okay to open up to countries in the clear, like New Zealand.  There won't be a vaccine for a year, so the world can't hide in fear for a year.  If you are worried about catching it, then stay isolated in your house.  Those who don't feel at risk should be able to go back to work.  There should be compromises available.

New Zealand has a tiny population.

And mark my words they won't agree to any bubble with a 'lesser developed' nation like Thailand, where you cannot trust a true analysis of figures, and also one that is desperate to open to China. 

Thailand economy is roughly officially 22% on Tourism OFFICIALLY. But a further 10% comes from links to the tourism chain (eg those who produce materials for clothing, food, drinks, alcohol, etc), and the black market (counterfit goods, street food, ladies of the night, etc). 

Even if they open up to the world, i doubt they will see many tourists. At the moment it seems attractive, but as soon as they open up they will see cases (even if local countries like South Korea) and then it won't remain very attractive to many tourists. No one wants to be in Thailand and stuck with a virus, people will want to be close to home. 

Tourism is screwed till there is treatment or a vaccine. 

3 hours ago, vinny41 said:

12% of Thailand GDP comes from foreign tourist arrivals Only an idiot would risk the other 88% of GDP by allowing unrestricted access to return without conditions such as quarantine

 Try 20-30%.

4 minutes ago, Miami007 said:

I agree that the 20% official number does not take into account much of the bar/ nightlife scene and many other business that rely on tourism.  

Obviously, countries will survive a 20% or 30% reduction in GDP - if it happens in 1 year (rather than slowly over time) and the population remains constant, it only will lead to a lowering of living standards.  Either there is an overall lowering of standards and an equal share of the burden or some people will continue as before while some lose much more than 20%.  As long as 74% of the Thai population is fine with the 25% of their fellow citizens losing most of their income, how can "outsiders" argue with that?  

 

Will there be any implications on society in general when 20-25% of the population have no income?  Will the government (through taxation of the entire population) provide a safety net?  If not, will the 20% simply suffer or maybe attempt to improve their economic situation by taking from the people "who still have"?

How long will it take until the loss of income for workers in tourism will cause them to spend less money on restaurants, consumer goods etc etc?  Then these business suffer and reduce employment

How long will foreign companies keep manufacturing in Thailand, if managers can not visit the factories and if staff doesn't feel welcome?  That will lead to even more of an economic loss.  But there is always farming to sustain the population, if everything else is gone.  BTW, domestic tourism will need to triple to overcome the loss of international tourism income - hard to see Thais spending so much on vacation when there is a worldwide economic crisis.

 

It is a small start and doesn't seem a "big deal" to some - but raising the drawbridge and filling the moat will eventually isolate a country and may turn back the clock 50-70 years.  I am not sure that too many people around the world would like to live in the next North Korea (which apparently never had any infection and death from the coronavirus)

No country can survive with a drop of GDP by 30% .... no country has ever faced a recession that grave. The biggest slump Thailand ever faced was a fall of 6% back in 2010-11 !!!!

This is how bad the current situation is. 

7 minutes ago, hotandsticky said:

 

 

Would you REALLY want tourists from USA or Europe at the moment?

I would be apprehensive on any form of international visitors from high rate countries too. However, if my country was reliant on tourism i would hope the government would do everything they could to protect the health of the people, by implementing safety procedures. 

No one is advocating a free for all and anyone just arrive. 

If however, people are prepared to take a massive hit on the economy (i'm talking about a hit that would devastate the finances of a country for many a year, and no investment in education, health, social issues, increased taxes, etc) by keeping locked then it's up to them. 

Also i know expats on here, staying in Thailand, with decent finances don't really care, infact they'd probably enjoy a Thai recession and become kings again, but the average Thai will hurt if the economy is wrecked. 

Thailand has to approach this sensitively, and cleverly. They don't want to reintroduce the virus, but by the same token they can't destroy their economy. It's a balance. 

Just now, hotandsticky said:

 

Non-domestic tourism accounts for about 18% of GDP.................... significant but it dilutes your argument if you start quoted figures like 30%. 

 

It also gives the Thai authorities the opportunity to push up domestic tourism and re-focus on where they want international tourists to come from.

 

 

Would you REALLY want tourists from USA or Europe at the moment?

I was watching a documentary on Thailand on tourism. They had a factory making delivery pallets. These pallets were usually for delivering foods, clothing, products, into trucks that went to heavily tourist areas. Then you had a family who made plastic labels, that were used on clothing, once again for products used in tourism. This is the sort of indirect link to tourism. 

Then of course you have the undercover economy, be it the nightlife, street food vendors, ladies of the night, counterfit products, etc

As i say, unofficially tourism could lead all the way up to 30%. You can always make counter arguments, but you can't deny it's high.

Even if you say a conservative figure of 20%. No country can cope with a loss in GDP of even half that. 

4 minutes ago, whitfield said:

I think they should allow anyone to come in provided they are prepared to quarantine in government nominated hotels for 14 days.  Government should select different levels of accommodation so that people can choose what level of comfort they require.  The customer will of course pay, but hopefully at an "at cost" rate.  Then those that really want to visit can do so.

As a first step this would be welcome. 

But they need to work out a way to test tourists on mass (at the cost of the visitor). 

One way to do it, would be to get tourists into a quarantine an. If you can't take a test at the airport, then test them at the quarantine residence. Once they pass the test they are free to move around. This would be an attractive opposition to many. 

They need to be innovative. 

7 minutes ago, geoff65 said:

No Country wants foreigners back yet as simple as that.

Fully agree. But there are countries that are heavily reliant on tourism. Be it the Caribbean nations, Italy, Maldives, Dubai, etc 

Thailand isn't a developed nation as of yet so to just wreck it's economy would destroy more people than the virus. 

The solution has to be more innovation in allowing tourists to arrive - be it testing on arrival, getting tourists to test at a facility, etc 

You simply can't close your borders indefinately be it tourism or business. 

How is sustainable to just stop tourism? 

Recent reports suggests that ofifically tourism contributes 25% to the Thai economy, and via long reaching connections to tourism (food, drink, clothing, plastics, metals, agricultural product) could be as high as 30%. 

How does any country wipe away 30% of it's GDP? 

Even if Thailand opened it's door for the world today - very few would travel, due to economics of many peoples finances and then the confidence to travel. 

I honestly believe they are sitting there, thinking as soon as they open the borders to China (because lets face it that's the sole country they care about here) that the Chinese will come flocking back. 

Unbelievable. 

Once the recession kicks in people will soon be angry. 

I see so many people keen to allow New Zealanders entry. But they only had some 60,000 tourist out of the Australisia continent. It's entire population is half that of London. 

You can get that many chinese in a few days to put things to into perspective ! 

Bubbles are fought with issues. 

For example, South Korea will be opening up very soon for American citiziens. So does that mean those in South Korea, who have got a long term residency, but have come from America - can travel to Thailand?

Also let's be real - the bubble to China doesn't extend to tourism both ways. No Thai's are travelling to the Chinese mainland for tourism (perhaps for work granted). 

And finally will these Chinese be up for allowing their citizens to travel to Thailand and risk bringing the virus back? Tourism barely makes a notch on their GDP.

Furthermore Bubbles make little sense.

Let's say Thailand opens up to South Korea and Japan.

South Korea 100% will be in a rush to open to the USA, as it is heavily reliant on them for security and business. Same with Japan. 

So Thailand ban USA, but open up South Korea and Japan, who are allowing USA numbers in to visit. 

So South Korea and Japan are full of Americans. If they are bringing the virus with them then it will circulate. Yet Koreans free to go to Thailand. 

Bubbles aren't that easy. 

Not everyone who visits Thailand from the USA, Europe, UK are their on tourism. Business passengers is still a major issue

Bubbles is just code for 'please come chinese people'. 

Let's face no Thai's are heading to China for tourism (unless to work). 

As it stands, Thai economy relies nearly 25-30% on tourism (direct and indirectly). No country can sustain that level of drop in GDP, so they will have to open up. 

Questions :

1) Is China actually safe? Can you trust their numbers? 

2) Would the Chinese even let tourists out on mass to visit the world, especially solely for tourism, and risk bringing back problems. The Chinese don't rely on tourism.

3) Will the Chinese actually want to travel ? 

Testing on arrival, quarantine programmes will have to be introduced. 

You simply can't ban everyone from the USA, Europe the worlds biggest economies from visiting Thailand - especially on business. 

England's daily infections rates are as follows - with testing that is close to 5 million people (and now ramping up to 200,000 a day). Compared to Thailand's 400,000 tests in total. 

If Thailand had carried out 5 million tests, you would see a figure higher than what they reported too. By the same logic if the UK carried out 400,000 tests it would also see a lower number of cases (but that's only part of the equation). Both countries have roughly the same population size.

Not once did the UK ever report anywhere near 10,000 cases.

The comments on many more people having the virus can apply to every other country - namely that many people will be asymptomatic and not know they have the virus, presenting mild symptoms, etc -this could be the case for Thailand too, especially during the period they were letting the Chinese flock into the country unchecked. 

*note, the UK has still been a horror show at this epidemic. 

5 hours ago, HerbyJFlash said:

@AndrewMciverBoris and co admitted in their broadcasted press conference last Thursday that they believe the number of new daily infections to be around 8,000. This is the estimated number if the whole population was tested.

England's daily infections rates are as follows - with testing that is close to 5 million people (and now ramping up to 200,000 a day). Compared to Thailand's 400,000 tests in total. 

If Thailand had carried out 5 million tests, you would see a figure higher than what they reported too. By the same logic if the UK carried out 400,000 tests it would also see a lower number of cases (but that's only part of the equation). Both countries have roughly the same population size.

Not once did the UK ever report anywhere near 10,000 cases.

The comments on many more people having the virus can apply to every other country - namely that many people will be asymptomatic and not know they have the virus, presenting mild symptoms, etc -this could be the case for Thailand too, especially during the period they were letting the Chinese flock into the country unchecked. 

*note, the UK has still been a horror show at this epidemic.