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Walker88

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Posts posted by Walker88

  1. Here's an example from Bergamo, Italy, since Italy has already analyzed and published data.

     

    In March 2019 the deaths per 1000 people in Bergamo was 14.3

     

    In March 2020 the deaths per 1000 people in Bergamo was 154.4

     

    Clearly 'something' jacked up the death rate in 2020.

     

    That 10-fold increase certainly fits the term 'outlier'. The US, including Colorado, will analyze and publish death rates in due time. One might expect something similar.

     

     

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  2. 10 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

    I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest Dr Fauci knows more about viruses, epidemiology, pathology and statistics that the OP or any of those supporting the OP's post. If my suggestion or assumption is incorrect, go ahead and post your credentials and accept my apology.

     

    Despite that famous Mark Twain quip, statistics do reveal important trends. There is a statistically normal rate of death in any population over a given period. Models are based on them. Models are adjusted for population size. Insurance companies use such models to set premium levels. One can be sure insurers recognize the trend.

     

    When the number of deaths runs way above trend, that represents an 'outlier', and scientists and statisticians will look into it to see what might have been causing it. They will look at coroner reports and hospital records to see what was determined or listed as the cause of death. If it is pneumonia or some other ailment strongly linked to CV-19, then that raises a red flag. These deaths are not necessarily added to the CV-19 total, but if the body has yet to be interred, blood samples can be taken to see if CV-19 is present. Remember that these are deaths above trend, or 'outliers' using the term from statistics.

     

    Dr Fauci, when he makes a statement that he believes total CV-19 deaths are higher than reported, he is falling back on both his expertise as an epidemiologist and one comfortable with statistics. Still, the 'outlier' deaths, even those whose cause per the death certificate was pneumonia or other maladies associated with CV-19, are not added to the total. Another problem has been the scarcity of reliable tests, as the US has only administered 11.5 million total tests as of this writing.

     

    It is a fact that the death rate in the US for 2020 is running approximately 150,000 above the norm, though only 90,000 so far have been added to the CV-19 total. "Something" has caused that rate to run way above trend. For those who died, and for their loved ones, the argument as to the cause makes precious little difference. They're dead, and they are dying at rates far in excess of death rates one would expect using the models that even insurance companies use in the actuarial calculations. To what do those arguing against the CV-19 totals attribute these far above normal rate deaths?

     

    Go ahead and believe whatever you wish. It makes no difference. Denying the danger of CV-19, however, would be most unwise for anyone who is obese, a smoker, has Type II diabetes, is older than 60, has high blood pressure, has an underlying condition like COPD, asthma or emphysema, or just has bad luck.

     

     

    You can plot deaths over time, adjust for population size, average age of the populace, etc. That is the death rate trend.

     

    Suddenly, the death rate jumps way above trend. Stats are run to see if the rate is 'statistically significant'. If it meets the criteria of being significant, it is termed an 'outlier'. SOMETHING must be behind the surge.

     

    It is that reason---based on statistical models---that suggest CV-19 is taking a much higher toll than what has been directly attributed to it.

     

    Those who disagree can offer an alternative opinion as to why the death rate is running way above the norm. No doubt insurance companies would welcome the answer, as rates far in excess of trend get their attention.

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  3. I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest Dr Fauci knows more about viruses, epidemiology, pathology and statistics that the OP or any of those supporting the OP's post. If my suggestion or assumption is incorrect, go ahead and post your credentials and accept my apology.

     

    Despite that famous Mark Twain quip, statistics do reveal important trends. There is a statistically normal rate of death in any population over a given period. Models are based on them. Models are adjusted for population size. Insurance companies use such models to set premium levels. One can be sure insurers recognize the trend.

     

    When the number of deaths runs way above trend, that represents an 'outlier', and scientists and statisticians will look into it to see what might have been causing it. They will look at coroner reports and hospital records to see what was determined or listed as the cause of death. If it is pneumonia or some other ailment strongly linked to CV-19, then that raises a red flag. These deaths are not necessarily added to the CV-19 total, but if the body has yet to be interred, blood samples can be taken to see if CV-19 is present. Remember that these are deaths above trend, or 'outliers' using the term from statistics.

     

    Dr Fauci, when he makes a statement that he believes total CV-19 deaths are higher than reported, he is falling back on both his expertise as an epidemiologist and one comfortable with statistics. Still, the 'outlier' deaths, even those whose cause per the death certificate was pneumonia or other maladies associated with CV-19, are not added to the total. Another problem has been the scarcity of reliable tests, as the US has only administered 11.5 million total tests as of this writing.

     

    It is a fact that the death rate in the US for 2020 is running approximately 150,000 above the norm, though only 90,000 so far have been added to the CV-19 total. "Something" has caused that rate to run way above trend. For those who died, and for their loved ones, the argument as to the cause makes precious little difference. They're dead, and they are dying at rates far in excess of death rates one would expect using the models that even insurance companies use in the actuarial calculations. To what do those arguing against the CV-19 totals attribute these far above normal rate deaths?

     

    Go ahead and believe whatever you wish. It makes no difference. Denying the danger of CV-19, however, would be most unwise for anyone who is obese, a smoker, has Type II diabetes, is older than 60, has high blood pressure, has an underlying condition like COPD, asthma or emphysema, or just has bad luck.

     

     

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  4. Whether it’s the ease of global travel, the increase in the planet’s temperature, evolution, or some other factor, there’s never been a better time to be a virus.

     

    Beginning in around 1980, virus have begun arising at a faster and faster clip. Back then HIV emerged. Since then we’ve faced CV-19, various Bird Flus, various Swine Flus, Ebola, SARS, MERS, Zika, West Nile…the list goes on and on. Some are spread by mosquitoes, some by bat guano or rat droppings, some by other animals, and many can be passed human to human. Medicine has been able to control but one (HIV), while some have treatments that can aid recovery, and some were ringfenced early enough that their spread was halted. None has resulted in a vaccine. After polio, smallpox and measles, few viruses other than the yearly common flu have been met with a vaccine. Perhaps one will be found for CV-19, but that is almost irrelevant.

     

    It’s irrelevant because new viruses are arising too fast. Even if a vaccine for CV-19 is discovered, developed, tested, and deployed, it’s likely---based on the last 40 years---that we’ll be facing another virus before we even cure CV-19.

     

    That is the world we now occupy.

     

    To make matters even worse, international terror groups like al Qaeda began to recruit expert biochemists and pathologists two decades ago and tasked them with developing a bio-pathogen that can be released into society. ISIS recently parroted that by recruiting its own experts. CV-19 is of particular interest to terrorists because it is the first corona virus that can be spread by people who show no symptoms. Neither SARS nor MERS viruses had that capability. Ideally, from a terrorist point of view, any bio-pathogen their labs produce will share that trait so that it can be ubiquitous in its spread.

     

    We live in a time when we view governments as all powerful, and to an extent this is true. Should governments so choose, all citizens can be monitored, analyzed, followed, and in some ways controlled. We also live in a time, however, where the single individual has never been more powerful. A single skilled biochemist has the potential to produce and release a pathogen that could wipe out all human life. Intel agencies can monitor threats in a broad sense, even rifling in a bit to isolated threats. Nobody, however, can monitor, uncover, or identify everyone who has an ax to grind. We are vulnerable to the kind of evil once relegated to James Bond movies.

     

    Yes, this is the world we now occupy. Act accordingly.

  5. Now that the unctuous little guy masquerading as DNI has forwarded the names of anyone who requested 'unmasking' of the parties in the Kislyak phone call, I rather hope there is a Hearing where the unmasking process is revealed.

     

    First, when a "US Person" is part of intel gained via human or electronic sources, all of it must be handed to the Bureau, as they have sole instant authority to deal with matters involving "US Persons". Anyone in CIA or NSA who has a need to know can file a request to have a party 'unmasked'. Only the person requesting is given the identity. One asks because it puts everything in the proper context and makes it understandable to those whose job is to protect the US. It also allows one to match other intel with what might make sense after the party is unmasked. Senior people generally request several unmasking every month; it is hardly unusual.

     

    What many will find bizarre is the definition of "US Person", which was changed, I believe, after the Church Commission in 1978. A "US Person" is defined as any US Citizen or Green Card Holder, any person within the borders of the US even if that person is a foreigner, and any person who has boarded a flight whose next stop is a US airport. In other words, if Ayman al Zawahiri boarded a plane in Dubai whose next stop was IAD, neither CIA nor NSA could monitor his actions or listen if he made a call using the in-seat phone. Inadvertent capture is okay (though it must be passed to the bureau), but if one party to any conversation is known beforehand to fit the definition of "US Person", that call cannot be captured without first getting a warrant, usually through the FISA Court.

     

    Often, when an officer requests an unmasking, the officer does not know if the party whose identity is sought is a US citizen or just someone in the US or in transit to the US. It is a bizarre system and to a large extent hamstrings intel pros.

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  6. 11 minutes ago, Crazy Alex said:

     

    True, but they generally do not do so to retaliate against the prosecutor doing something they don't like. What on Earth is the logic for coming up with a contempt charge on Flynn because the prosecutor wants to drop the case?

    The reason is because flynn previously admitted, twice, that he lied to the FBI and Pence. Withdrawal of the charges and changing the plea is flynn saying he lied to the court about lying. That is what earns him a possible contempt charge.

     

    It's pretty easy to understand.

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  7. 10 hours ago, Mama Noodle said:

     

    You have the details all jumbled up and out of order, and seem to be having quite the meltdown bringing up stuff that no one is talking about. 

     

    The phone call and the details were well known, completely known to everyone, and James Comey tried to close the case (Knowing all about the phone call and what was said) that was until Strozk went in and set him up with a friendly meeting, and manipulated multiple times the 302 documents. 

     

    The FBI knew what was said in the phone call, James Comey tried to close the case, and then the Flynn Setup happened. 

    No, nothing is jumbled. The case went down as I wrote it. I don't believe you have any knowledge of how the bureau, the NSA or CIA work.  Similarly, you clearly have no clue how an investigation works, nor how the bureau prepares for, and sets up, an interrogation.

     

    Somewhere along the way, you also do not seem to remember that flynn not only lied to pence, he lied to the FBI, and admitted to both under oath in court. By your reasoning, flynn would have committed perjury if he lied about lying. How convoluted is that!

     

    I brought up the bit on the son-in-law because it adds to the body of evidence that the transition team repeatedly broke the law, as only a duly sworn POTUS and Administration is allowed to set or discuss any US foreign policy. The son-in-law, besides having committed a crime, is incredibly naive and had no idea his escapades at the Russian Embassy would become known. Flynn, OTOH, should have known better that NSA would pick up Kislyak's phone. He was simply stupid or careless, as was his reputation at DoD. He had run ins with brilliant folks like Mike Vickers, because flynn did not follow proper procedures and Op-Sec, and he was reckless.

     

    Most of the details of this as well as the entire Russiagate conspiracy will not come out until the rule of law is returned to the US. The intel is there. At the moment, the AG is trying not to get access to the intel itself (because he knows it's damning), but rather to find out the source. Agency officers pride themselves in the fact that they will put their own lives on the line in order to protect an asset. Gina will not turn over any source name to the ag or durham, since neither they nor POTUS can be trusted not to immediately forward that "source and method" to Putin. The entire agency workforce will back her. In the past Putin has reacted to people who have worked as clandestine assets for foreign powers by feeding them alive into a furnace while the man's wife and children were forced to look on. Nobody is going to allow a hack like barr to have that happen again.

     

    I don't know how to say this in any way except directly: you have absolutely no clue what you are talking about. Zero. None.

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