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Walker88

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Posts posted by Walker88

  1. There's a trend in much of the developed and even developing world. Few people really want to commit to a long term, lifetime relationship. Everybody is self-centered to a large extent nowadays, me included.

     

    Who wants to have kids? Not many. Thailand has a fertility rate below even the US, at 1.5 vs 1.7 in the US. Other Asian nations are worse. South Korea has the lowest fertility rate in the world (.9), and it isn't just because young Korean men are androgynous.

     

    Perhaps it's 'evolution', but the world population is going to shrink, because men and women don't really like each other too much now, at least not so much that they want to commit to a lifetime together. That will impact relationships and make many of them temporary, as exit is easier when there's no kids involved. An optimist can chime in 'variety is the spice of life'.

     

    A normal man is as likely to find a meaningful relationship at home or abroad....in the West or Thailand. Many men beef about getting fleeced in a divorce, but that is for a certain socio economic level that is not the top, since at the upper socio economic level, women now earn about the same as men. In my old industry, there were as about as many women making 7+ figures as men. Relationships at that level might have issues, but money was not one of them.

     

    I might be at risk of generalizing, but in my experience, the men who end up marrying Thai women were, at best, near the median of earning and education, and most I have seen were below the mean. Their relatively meager earnings can seem like a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow to a poor Isaan woman. It's quite possible that in such instances everybody wins, but it is totally unrelated to whether Western women are attractive candidates for a relationship. Again, this might be a generalization, and no doubt many quite well-to-do Western men have linked up with Thai women. Good for them. Enjoy!

     

    Just looking at external esthetics, I am of the opinion that Thai women are more physically attractive than Western Caucasian women. Certainly Thai women better fit the (perhaps outdated) definition of 'feminine' (unless one has a foot fetish, as Isaan women's feet quite often suggest a more rugged upbringing). Personality-wise, it all depends on what one wants. The cultural differences are huge, and the gap not easy to link, but men who seek beauty first might be able to ignore the differences or the lack of general knowledge one comes to expect from people having been on the planet for a couple decades or more. Western women (though perhaps not Millennials) tend to have more knowledge and can discuss more subjects than Thai women, but lose out in appearance IMO. Driven by testosterone, Thai women win; driven by intellect in my choice, Western women win.

     

    I never had any problem with Western women. Many good friends there. I prefer Thai women, at least to share time with, because I'm terribly shallow and like beauty and have my view of what constitutes 'sexy'. Never had kids and feel no need to propagate my gene pool, so if I engage in assignations, it's for sport, not procreation.

     

    It boils down to personal preference, of course. Those in Thailand, or who frequent a website aimed at Thailand, are a self-selected demographic, so most will prefer Thai over Western.

  2. "Flexible Plus Program, as well as existing members of the Thailand Elite Card, Elite Ultimate Privilege, Elite Superiority Extension and Elite Privilege Access will be granted the right to work in Thailand."

     

    Tesco-Lotus must have been having a sale on "pluses" and "superlatives", as these are showing up increasingly in every Thai program, from the various special card/visa programs to SHA, SHA+, SHA++ hotels and restaurants.

     

    It kind of reminds me of how housing developments are named in China....such as "Golden Fortune Double Happiness Beverly Hills Shores".

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  3. Places that elevate a human being to near deity status simply for being born kind of deserve what they get. It seems the rather ordinary and quite common  'accomplishment' of being born doesn't insure moral superiority, character or integrity.

     

    Maybe the lout can be voted out in the next princely election?

     

    Oh, sorry. Forget he's a protected, anachronistic parasite.

     

     

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  4. 15 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

     

    Turning 5k into $1m is hard.

    I'll give you two instances where that happened. In fact, these two---from memory, because I traded both---dwarf even btc's run from $100 to it's peak at $69K (which took a decade).

     

    Oct 6, 1987 to mid-morning Oct 20, 1987. S&P Futures puts. In those two weeks the value rose, not 1000%, but 1000 times.

     

    Late Dec 1989 to late Jan 1990. Nikkei Futures puts. Also went up over 1000 times.

     

    The first I traded as an individual, the second as a fund manager. I had nowhere near the position I would have liked to have had, but the return was still massive.

     

    You might be able to find the historical data online. I have it in one of my old computers.

  5. Just now, Sparktrader said:

    Rubbish. Indicators like macd, crossovers, donchian work the same most years. 

     

    St signals are hit and miss. Lt signals miss the early part but are right more often.

     

    Most people cant follow rules. The Turtle study proved it. They made money under rules. Afterwards they couldnt stick to it.

     

     

    Then go ahead and become a billionaire.  What you note are what amateurs use. You would be laughed out of Bridgewater or Tudor if you brought that up.

  6. 1 hour ago, Sparktrader said:

    Say a method has a 63% win rate. Thats a 13% edge over even luck. Many strategies like ma crossovers etc are like that. Traders who follow the rules win. Most people cant follow rules which is why they lose.

     

    Google the Turtle Traders. 

    Anything that once worked, like ma crossovers, work now according to random chance.  In other words, like darts thrown by a monkey. Lots of folks built AI systems based on 'what used to work'. Of course, they don't work anymore.

     

    I spent a career as a hedge fund manager. What works best is luck. Second is discipline. Third is setting a goal and sticking to it, which means leaving the industry when the bank balance is at the goal. Save for one or two guys (Soros, Drunkenmiller, maybe Ray Dalio, Shaw), the market eventually discredits everybody who overstays his welcome. Ideally, one has enough money under management by then so that the management fee alone pays the bills. Also, lots of guys who work off a % of gains will simply close the fund if it's down, then re-open a new fund, which sets things back to zero, so that the next win gives them the 'performance fee'.

     

    Another trick:  trading OTC products are easy to abuse, because there is no exchange to get a 'market price'. In 2008, when lots of folks had opposing sides of OTC trades and structured products like CDSs, it was not uncommon for BOTH sides to claim a paper profit at the same time. When a performance fee is based on the aggregate of positions closed plus marked to market, 'everybody's a winner'.

     

    Many folks have left the industry because things have gotten weird. Guys like Paul Jones, while still in, don't do anywhere as well as he used to do. Of course, with a 10-figure net worth, winning or losing isn't going to impact his lifestyle.  The Turtle founder (Richard Dennis), gave up a long time ago when his 'system' didn't quite work as well.

     

    Like I said, #1 is luck.

    • Like 2
  7. 8 hours ago, Liverpool Lou said:

    $16,000 (THB520,000+) for the two of you for one week's quarantine?   

     

    With a claim like that, how much credibility do you think the rest of your "story" has?

    Gee, perhaps he inadvertently put a '$' sign instead of baht?

     

    I have no doubt that you are perfect and without sin, but to toss his entire post because of what is likely---to thinking people---a typo, is rather arrogant.

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  8. 7 hours ago, Excel said:

    Anything in the US labelled as "beer" should be taken with a pinch of salt

    Years ago that would have been true. Not anymore.

     

    After university I spent most of my career outside of the US. On subsequent visits, I was pleasantly surprised by what is now on offer. Visiting family these years, I can go into a shop and choose from 1000+ different beers, some of which can match anything brewed anywhere. Even some 'mass-produced' beers are quite good.

     

    Not sure if the reason was offspring wanting money, or management seeing the writing on the wall (as thousands of new breweries emerged), but some of the US' most infamous beers have been sold to European breweries. Sure, "Bud" still sells well, but stand in any check-out line, and what other customers are buying before the Big Game is quite varied and reflects a complete change in taste and appreciation of one of humanity's finest creations.

     

    Two major things changed in my absence from the US---one can now get good beer and good coffee. Capitalism works.

  9. 5 hours ago, robblok said:

     I saw profits and losses it made me lose faith in the abilities of stock traders. These guys also had personal portfolio's they traded for and even those did not see huge increases (more like losses) in the downturn. 

     

    One of the traders often did trades just for the commission, these guys made a lot of money. It was not unheard of to see two guys in the same office take opposite views of how the market or a certain share would move and acted accordingly. It was not a really large company i believe 7 traders if i recall. 

     

     

    I'm sure you know this, but guys who work as brokers are NOT traders. They tend to recommend what the company needs to foist on sell to customers, not what anybody really thinks is a good idea. It might be, it might not be. Their job is to generate commissions.

     

    I worked for many large investment banks and hedge funds. I was a trader, meaning I did not have to deal with customers. Traders are given a pile of money (position limit and risk limit) and told to make it grow. Make it grow you keep your job; do poorly you get fired. It's a pure meritocracy. The remuneration is sinful, far in excess of the value added to society, but I guess I could say the same for a futball player or actor. It is what it is. I was able to retire at a young age, because I was quite good lucky. I also had the advantage of being allowed to trade anything I wanted in the world, and to be long or short. It's really all about discipline....admitting when one is wrong and getting out of a trade......knowing the market couldn't care less where you bought or sold, has no obligation to let you get out unscathed, and tends to hammer those who dare to think they actually know something. Yes, experience allows one to see patterns and sense moves, because in the end it's humans, and human behavior rarely changes. Loners do well, as they do not get caught up in the buzz and can take positions contrary to what 'experts' are saying. Experts rarely are such, at least the ones who get all the airtime (cough....Cathie Woods....cough....is the latest One Shot Wonder). A guy like George Soros (best I ever saw) keeps his mouth shut and just trades. If anyone really had a sense of the idiosyncrasies of markets and human behavior, it is Mr Soros. So much is attributed to him that simply is not true. I don't think he much cares. He's still worth $30 billion plus and has given away at least as much....most of it quietly and for truly humanitarian purposes.

    • Like 2
  10. The Cult awakens on yet another manipulated move.

     

    bitcoin did not release surprise earnings (there are none)

     

    bitcoin did not announce the debut of a new product (there are none)

     

    So is it now:

     

    1) the train is leaving the station

     

    or

     

    2) a rocket ship to the moon

     

    Of course the answer is:  None of the above.

     

    bitcoin's major holders (25% owned by .1%) just did what they have been doing: juice it to get day trading genius wannabes and the Clueless Cathie Woods of the world to chase the fox. It trades exactly like a penny stock.

     

    Once the conjured from nothing entity hits a level that pleases them, and the bid side fills in, they will hammer it again and realize gains from their creation.

     

    Trade it, don't marry it. And certainly don't give any credence to a One Shot Wonder like Cathie Woods

     

    Of course we can thank btc for getting crude oil up over $90/bbl. I guess since gross wastes of finite resources are completely acceptable, I'm going to order a Donzi or Cigarette boat with 1000 gallon tanks and 2000hp engines and do my part to waste fossil fuel and contribute to climate change.

     

     

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  11. At the main office of Bangkok Bank, you can open an account even if you are on a Tourist Visa, if you provide a notarized memo from your Embassy saying your passport is genuine and it is you. I did that at the beginning of Covid, during the Amnesty period.

     

    Bangkok Bank also has the least amount of paperwork, and their online banking system works well.

     

    I subsequently bought a company, changed my visa status to Non-B Investor/Business, got a work permit, and opened accounts at both SCB and Kasikorn. I believe I had to sign at least fifty pages of docs for K-Bank, maybe half that for SCB. Both have workable online platforms.

     

    If you wire money from outside Thailand, Bangkok Bank seems to give the best exchange rate, as good as a major FX Broker, especially if the amount is low by Broker standards (e.g., under $25K). For large amounts (e.g., over $100K), the rates converge.

  12. 10 hours ago, Pravda said:

    What a bunch of nonsense. Enjoy your women that have been "sampled" by hundreds or Arabs and indians before you.

     

    You pay for sex, you enjoy sloppy seconds. Simples.

    Some might say "Real Men" don't expect to marry a virgin, because some men are not insecure about their junk and their ability to use it to please.

  13. 18 hours ago, alextrat1966 said:

    Lol I’m not crazy, as a matter of fact I’m saner than all of you. 
     

    An 80 year old going with a 20 year old girl, is a scumbag ????

    Is that Newton's 4th Law or something? Maybe it's an Amendment in the Thai Constitution? Could it have been in the Magna Carta?

     

    Oh wait! It's just your personal opinion, and you've come to Thailand, looked around, and now seem dead set on imposing your own morality on another country that has done very well without you for a couple thousand years.

     

    Since you've shared what you are not---in terms of your screen name---I'll add that neither am I anywhere close to 80 nor do I have a Thai girlfriend. What I also lack is bitterness worn on my sleeve as well as lacking the need to tell other folks how they should spend their all-too-brief moment of existence.

     

    By the way, I would guess there are people who might say "Real Men" don't follow their wives to Thailand and live off her blood and sweat. I guess everybody can have a definition.

     

    Live and let live.

  14. 2 hours ago, shdmn said:

    All anyone needs to do is go to the website and search and see for themselves.  I believe those old posts are still there.
    https://www.stickmanbangkok.com/?s=hiv

    https://www.stickmanbangkok.com/?s=std
     

    I often read his column and didn't notice what you claim he said. I checked the links you posted, read a few, and all I found (admittedly, I didn't read all) is that things like 'STD' and 'HIV' were mentioned in the article. Nowhere I found so far did he claim all the bargirls had these diseases.

     

    Obviously some of the women do have them. I was taking care of a woman from a famous Walking Street agogo, a place where 'our girls are checked every month'. She was a friend and I never dallied with her. She had another ailment, so I offered to take her to Bumrungrad to check her out. They did blood work. They found---not related to the ailment for which I took her to Bumrungrad---she had advanced syphilis. She had gone through Stage 1, Stage 2, Latency, and was moving into Paresis. In other words, she had it for years, yet had been servicing customers (and ostensibly checked) all that time. Customers who either did not wear a condom, or who might have engaged in oral relations with her, would have been at risk. Some customers probably ignored a chancre in their mouth, never thinking it might be an STD caught from her.

     

    I never thought the 'tests' meant anything, but this was absolute confirmation the tests are meaningless and should offer no punter any comfort. If Stickman's writing might put the fear of illness into a punter or two, maybe he provided a useful service. Of course, many men will still take the risk, but the occasional 'scared straight' could save some a lot of anguish.

    • Like 1
  15. Few true hedges now exist. There are times when capital preservation becomes key.

     

    Because of the profligacy with which the world first addressed 2008, and then Covid, plus the useless tax cut when R's still controlled the US Congress and wanted to feed the Donor Class, inflation has finally begun to kick in.....yet nothing has worked as a hedge against that.....not stocks, not gold, not housing, not cryptos. Housing may lag a bit and not remain an input in overall price inflation (because rising rates hurt borrowing), but it seems to have peaked. Lumber coming off gives a hint as to how rate-sensitive housing is.

     

    Too many 'investors' have a belief that assumes prices will always at least go back to where they were.  Maybe that's true over the VERY long term, but as Keynes said, 'In the long term, we're all dead'.

     

    When the stock market crashed in 1929, the Dow did not reach the same level until 1954---and that only because bankrupt companies were replaced in the index. That's 25 years to break even, non-inflation adjusted. In 1980 gold hit $850 and silver $48, and those levels took 30 years to beat. Japan hit its peak in 1989, and 33 years later remains well below that peak.

     

    So many of today's 'investors' have never experienced a bear market. That suggests to me that if things continue south---whether equities or cryptos---panic will ensue. There are also precious few trades right now that are not 'crowded', as in everyone who wants to own already owns. Cash might lose the least as things shake out.

     

    One final curiosity.....on the US Debt Clock, the scariest thing to me isn't the debt of the USG---as no govt ever has repaid its debt and no nation is going to start now---but the Avg Home Price vs Median Income. In 2000 it was $161,650 vs $31,627. Today it's $393,240 vs $35,692. So Median Income is up 13% while the Median Home Price is up 143%. Granted some of that is due to rates, but it smells bubblish....as do stocks and cryptos.

    • Like 1
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