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Posts posted by Walker88
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4 hours ago, happydreamer said:There most certainly is....some of it as high as 8% on stablecoins. Im earning 8% on GUSD, 5% on ETH, 4.5% on BTC, and 3.5% on LTC . Also earning rewards (in crypto currency of my choice) based on monthly spending at a rate of 1.5% - 3.5% that go directly into crypto interest earning account.
Then there's staking which I think @Neeanam can explain better than me.
You have credit risk, but don't know where it is, and have zero recourse if you get stiffed.
My experience (as a professional hedge fund manager) is that folks who lose the most are those who had no clue where their risk was, nor its level.
There is no free lunch. Earning interest means someone is borrowing. The borrower can default, and is likely to do so if price fluctuates greatly, so a lender's crypto comes with good news and bad news:
The good news is that borrowers are likely to default if a coin rises considerably, which means the lender's paper value must have gone up. The bad news is the borrower defaulted, so the lender's crypto is gone. Oh, the exchange is liable? How well capitalized is the exchange? (I bet those who champion crypto because govt regulation isn't there might suddenly wish some sort of regulation was there if borrowers default or exchanges get wiped out. If the exchange is a bank, there is little chance the govt is going to bail out a bank who got into trouble by dealing in crypto).
The weak link is always the exchanges. Back in 1980, the gold exchanges were on the verge of collapse due to the Hunts/Saudis trying to corner gold/silver. Henry Jarecki of Mocatta stepped in and declared "liquidation only". When you are not the one making the rules, you are the one with risk.
Of course, maybe 'Satoshi et al' have conjured virtual free lunches.
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"Flexible Plus Program, as well as existing members of the Thailand Elite Card, Elite Ultimate Privilege, Elite Superiority Extension and Elite Privilege Access will be granted the right to work in Thailand."
Tesco-Lotus must have been having a sale on "pluses" and "superlatives", as these are showing up increasingly in every Thai program, from the various special card/visa programs to SHA, SHA+, SHA++ hotels and restaurants.
It kind of reminds me of how housing developments are named in China....such as "Golden Fortune Double Happiness Beverly Hills Shores".
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No, it's not a Ponzi. A Ponzi Scheme is built upon the principle that a Greater Fool will bail out the creators. The creators first create buzz by letting some smallfry win a little, then when the masses get excited, they hammer as much as possible and realize their winnings.
Funny thing...those 'finite' cryptos now have 9000 of the 'best' ones being posted and followed by Yahoo. Yahoo had to choose amongst the ever-growing, infinite universe of cryptos and left out another 9000 cryptos that haven't yet found their cult following.
There are only about 160-180 fiats in the world, but most of them are accepted everywhere, and transactions take a microsecond, both to enter and to cancel, if one decides to do so.
The financial press had an interesting article on the behavior of ethereum in the last year. It is---without meaning to be---the quintessential Ponzi. The article notes the millions of new wallets over a period when price movement was minimal. The name for that is 'distribution'. The whales are hitting the bids of the day trading geniuses. That doesn't mean the scam is finished, but it does give a clear indication of how it eventually ends.
One makes a crypto in order to lure in dream buyers, then takes their accumulated wealth from them. Funny the crypto faithful don't trust governments, but have full faith in anonymous crypto creators the cult couldn't pick out of a crowd of 2. Sure, crypto creators are the salt of the Earth, the men Diogenes sought taking nightly walks with his lantern, born even without Original Sin, like Mary---pregnant while still a virgin. Ha!
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If I ever go out from and come back to Thailand, I'm opting for the Super Special Bespoke Elite 'Quality Tourist' Thai Pass Plus^2. It wasn't so much that they sold me on the 5 days in the SHA+Plus Mandarin Oriental in the 432,000 baht/night penthouse suite, nor the chauffeur-driven Rolls Phantom with the extended wheelbase that will greet me at Suvarnabhumi for the ride back to my riverfront den. No, it was when they told me the PCR tests will be conducted using a probe that has---rather than having a simple cotton tip (not even Sea Island cotton, by the way)---a shahtoosh ball.
One simply cannot put a price on the softest natural fiber in existence.
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Places that elevate a human being to near deity status simply for being born kind of deserve what they get. It seems the rather ordinary and quite common 'accomplishment' of being born doesn't insure moral superiority, character or integrity.
Maybe the lout can be voted out in the next princely election?
Oh, sorry. Forget he's a protected, anachronistic parasite.
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15 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:
Turning 5k into $1m is hard.
I'll give you two instances where that happened. In fact, these two---from memory, because I traded both---dwarf even btc's run from $100 to it's peak at $69K (which took a decade).
Oct 6, 1987 to mid-morning Oct 20, 1987. S&P Futures puts. In those two weeks the value rose, not 1000%, but 1000 times.
Late Dec 1989 to late Jan 1990. Nikkei Futures puts. Also went up over 1000 times.
The first I traded as an individual, the second as a fund manager. I had nowhere near the position I would have liked to have had, but the return was still massive.
You might be able to find the historical data online. I have it in one of my old computers.
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4 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:
Donchian plus dma nailed the last 4 btc bull markets. Got around 70% of the move each time.
It called a buy at 39k. Lets see where the exit is and calculate return
Well then you'll be a billionaire. I'm happy with a decimal point less.
To each his own.
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I knew the folks at LTCM. 'Geniuses'. A Nobel Prize winner. A couple of them were my professors. I didn't join them. They had the wrong attitude.
BOOM!
Their losses almost brought the system down, as in the world's financial system. Nobody learned from that, because a decade later 2008 and Synthetic CDO Squareds with CDS Yield Enhancement kickers happened.
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Just now, Sparktrader said:
Rubbish. Indicators like macd, crossovers, donchian work the same most years.
St signals are hit and miss. Lt signals miss the early part but are right more often.
Most people cant follow rules. The Turtle study proved it. They made money under rules. Afterwards they couldnt stick to it.
Then go ahead and become a billionaire. What you note are what amateurs use. You would be laughed out of Bridgewater or Tudor if you brought that up.
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1 hour ago, Sparktrader said:
Say a method has a 63% win rate. Thats a 13% edge over even luck. Many strategies like ma crossovers etc are like that. Traders who follow the rules win. Most people cant follow rules which is why they lose.
Google the Turtle Traders.
Anything that once worked, like ma crossovers, work now according to random chance. In other words, like darts thrown by a monkey. Lots of folks built AI systems based on 'what used to work'. Of course, they don't work anymore.
I spent a career as a hedge fund manager. What works best is luck. Second is discipline. Third is setting a goal and sticking to it, which means leaving the industry when the bank balance is at the goal. Save for one or two guys (Soros, Drunkenmiller, maybe Ray Dalio, Shaw), the market eventually discredits everybody who overstays his welcome. Ideally, one has enough money under management by then so that the management fee alone pays the bills. Also, lots of guys who work off a % of gains will simply close the fund if it's down, then re-open a new fund, which sets things back to zero, so that the next win gives them the 'performance fee'.
Another trick: trading OTC products are easy to abuse, because there is no exchange to get a 'market price'. In 2008, when lots of folks had opposing sides of OTC trades and structured products like CDSs, it was not uncommon for BOTH sides to claim a paper profit at the same time. When a performance fee is based on the aggregate of positions closed plus marked to market, 'everybody's a winner'.
Many folks have left the industry because things have gotten weird. Guys like Paul Jones, while still in, don't do anywhere as well as he used to do. Of course, with a 10-figure net worth, winning or losing isn't going to impact his lifestyle. The Turtle founder (Richard Dennis), gave up a long time ago when his 'system' didn't quite work as well.
Like I said, #1 is luck.
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8 hours ago, Pravda said:
That's 200k Canadian and I'm up 553 bucks.
We had a saying in my trading room.....
"A paper gain is a paper gain, but a paper loss is real money"
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8 hours ago, Liverpool Lou said:
$16,000 (THB520,000+) for the two of you for one week's quarantine?
With a claim like that, how much credibility do you think the rest of your "story" has?
Gee, perhaps he inadvertently put a '$' sign instead of baht?
I have no doubt that you are perfect and without sin, but to toss his entire post because of what is likely---to thinking people---a typo, is rather arrogant.
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Well, one thing we can be sure of: he did not spend his ill-gotten gains on a gym membership, so police can shut down that line of inquiry.
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7 hours ago, Excel said:
Anything in the US labelled as "beer" should be taken with a pinch of salt
Years ago that would have been true. Not anymore.
After university I spent most of my career outside of the US. On subsequent visits, I was pleasantly surprised by what is now on offer. Visiting family these years, I can go into a shop and choose from 1000+ different beers, some of which can match anything brewed anywhere. Even some 'mass-produced' beers are quite good.
Not sure if the reason was offspring wanting money, or management seeing the writing on the wall (as thousands of new breweries emerged), but some of the US' most
infamous beers have been sold to European breweries. Sure, "Bud" still sells well, but stand in any check-out line, and what other customers are buying before the Big Game is quite varied and reflects a complete change in taste and appreciation of one of humanity's finest creations.Two major things changed in my absence from the US---one can now get good beer and good coffee. Capitalism works.
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I understand where the OP is coming from, but two things might be good to remember:
1) Unless your belief system has reincarnation, you can be pretty sure you get one shot at life, so make the best of it according to YOUR desires, hopes and needs, not what you think society expects of you. Being warm all year, in a laid back culture, and in a place where one might be able to avail one's self of lovely women...if that appeals to someone, then go for it. Judge yourself; don't let others judge you.
2) Don't go in blind or unprepared; PLAN
There's a Somerset Maugham short story about a guy who was an insurance adjuster. He knew the actuarial tables by heart. He assumed how long he would live and how much money he would need. He beat the actuarial statistics and spent his last years penniless and impoverished.
Life takes unexpected turns. Have a nest egg/cash reserve, and a Plan B.
Then go out and kick butt and take names....enjoying this all too brief existence. Die with no regrets, and as the Irish toast goes, "May your last check bounce".
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5 hours ago, robblok said:
I saw profits and losses it made me lose faith in the abilities of stock traders. These guys also had personal portfolio's they traded for and even those did not see huge increases (more like losses) in the downturn.
One of the traders often did trades just for the commission, these guys made a lot of money. It was not unheard of to see two guys in the same office take opposite views of how the market or a certain share would move and acted accordingly. It was not a really large company i believe 7 traders if i recall.
I'm sure you know this, but guys who work as brokers are NOT traders. They tend to recommend what the company needs to
foist onsell to customers, not what anybody really thinks is a good idea. It might be, it might not be. Their job is to generate commissions.I worked for many large investment banks and hedge funds. I was a trader, meaning I did not have to deal with customers. Traders are given a pile of money (position limit and risk limit) and told to make it grow. Make it grow you keep your job; do poorly you get fired. It's a pure meritocracy. The remuneration is sinful, far in excess of the value added to society, but I guess I could say the same for a futball player or actor. It is what it is. I was able to retire at a young age, because I was quite
goodlucky. I also had the advantage of being allowed to trade anything I wanted in the world, and to be long or short. It's really all about discipline....admitting when one is wrong and getting out of a trade......knowing the market couldn't care less where you bought or sold, has no obligation to let you get out unscathed, and tends to hammer those who dare to think they actually know something. Yes, experience allows one to see patterns and sense moves, because in the end it's humans, and human behavior rarely changes. Loners do well, as they do not get caught up in the buzz and can take positions contrary to what 'experts' are saying. Experts rarely are such, at least the ones who get all the airtime (cough....Cathie Woods....cough....is the latest One Shot Wonder). A guy like George Soros (best I ever saw) keeps his mouth shut and just trades. If anyone really had a sense of the idiosyncrasies of markets and human behavior, it is Mr Soros. So much is attributed to him that simply is not true. I don't think he much cares. He's still worth $30 billion plus and has given away at least as much....most of it quietly and for truly humanitarian purposes.-
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The Cult awakens on yet another manipulated move.
bitcoin did not release surprise earnings (there are none)
bitcoin did not announce the debut of a new product (there are none)
So is it now:
1) the train is leaving the station
or
2) a rocket ship to the moon
Of course the answer is: None of the above.
bitcoin's major holders (25% owned by .1%) just did what they have been doing: juice it to get day trading genius wannabes and the Clueless Cathie Woods of the world to chase the fox. It trades exactly like a penny stock.
Once the conjured from nothing entity hits a level that pleases them, and the bid side fills in, they will hammer it again and realize gains from their creation.
Trade it, don't marry it. And certainly don't give any credence to a One Shot Wonder like Cathie Woods
Of course we can thank btc for getting crude oil up over $90/bbl. I guess since gross wastes of finite resources are completely acceptable, I'm going to order a Donzi or Cigarette boat with 1000 gallon tanks and 2000hp engines and do my part to waste fossil fuel and contribute to climate change.
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At the main office of Bangkok Bank, you can open an account even if you are on a Tourist Visa, if you provide a notarized memo from your Embassy saying your passport is genuine and it is you. I did that at the beginning of Covid, during the Amnesty period.
Bangkok Bank also has the least amount of paperwork, and their online banking system works well.
I subsequently bought a company, changed my visa status to Non-B Investor/Business, got a work permit, and opened accounts at both SCB and Kasikorn. I believe I had to sign at least fifty pages of docs for K-Bank, maybe half that for SCB. Both have workable online platforms.
If you wire money from outside Thailand, Bangkok Bank seems to give the best exchange rate, as good as a major FX Broker, especially if the amount is low by Broker standards (e.g., under $25K). For large amounts (e.g., over $100K), the rates converge.
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10 hours ago, Pravda said:
What a bunch of nonsense. Enjoy your women that have been "sampled" by hundreds or Arabs and indians before you.
You pay for sex, you enjoy sloppy seconds. Simples.
Some might say "Real Men" don't expect to marry a virgin, because some men are not insecure about their junk and their ability to use it to please.
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18 hours ago, alextrat1966 said:
Lol I’m not crazy, as a matter of fact I’m saner than all of you.
An 80 year old going with a 20 year old girl, is a scumbag ????
Is that Newton's 4th Law or something? Maybe it's an Amendment in the Thai Constitution? Could it have been in the Magna Carta?
Oh wait! It's just your personal opinion, and you've come to Thailand, looked around, and now seem dead set on imposing your own morality on another country that has done very well without you for a couple thousand years.
Since you've shared what you are not---in terms of your screen name---I'll add that neither am I anywhere close to 80 nor do I have a Thai girlfriend. What I also lack is bitterness worn on my sleeve as well as lacking the need to tell other folks how they should spend their all-too-brief moment of existence.
By the way, I would guess there are people who might say "Real Men" don't follow their wives to Thailand and live off her blood and sweat. I guess everybody can have a definition.
Live and let live.
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2 hours ago, shdmn said:
All anyone needs to do is go to the website and search and see for themselves. I believe those old posts are still there.
https://www.stickmanbangkok.com/?s=hivI often read his column and didn't notice what you claim he said. I checked the links you posted, read a few, and all I found (admittedly, I didn't read all) is that things like 'STD' and 'HIV' were mentioned in the article. Nowhere I found so far did he claim all the bargirls had these diseases.
Obviously some of the women do have them. I was taking care of a woman from a famous Walking Street agogo, a place where 'our girls are checked every month'. She was a friend and I never dallied with her. She had another ailment, so I offered to take her to Bumrungrad to check her out. They did blood work. They found---not related to the ailment for which I took her to Bumrungrad---she had advanced syphilis. She had gone through Stage 1, Stage 2, Latency, and was moving into Paresis. In other words, she had it for years, yet had been servicing customers (and ostensibly checked) all that time. Customers who either did not wear a condom, or who might have engaged in oral relations with her, would have been at risk. Some customers probably ignored a chancre in their mouth, never thinking it might be an STD caught from her.
I never thought the 'tests' meant anything, but this was absolute confirmation the tests are meaningless and should offer no punter any comfort. If Stickman's writing might put the fear of illness into a punter or two, maybe he provided a useful service. Of course, many men will still take the risk, but the occasional 'scared straight' could save some a lot of anguish.
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3 hours ago, dj230 said:Why do you think most of Wall Street has a hard time beating the market on returns?
Several reasons why this happens. One is transaction costs, while minimal for a large fund, still take away from the return.
Another is that when the market is up and interest rates are low, any cash not committed---i.e., less than 100% invested---shows a return LESS than the market. Whatever is in TBills or lent overnight is going to yield less than the market (in a rising market). Funds will try to make up as much as they can of this by loaning out stock to short sellers via their prime broker.
Another reason is that an index-tracking fund sometimes gets caught not already owning equities that are added to the index, or stuck with equities being removed from the index.
Finally, some funds do an index proxy...they have an algorithm that ostensibly tracks the S&P500 without actually owning all 500 companies. Any errors or changes in historical correlations between their basket and the entire index impacts their return.
Oh wait! Then you get fund managers like Cathie Woods who thinks she knows something because she once got one thing right. She then tries to out-pick the market, and generally these types fail.
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Few true hedges now exist. There are times when capital preservation becomes key.
Because of the profligacy with which the world first addressed 2008, and then Covid, plus the useless tax cut when R's still controlled the US Congress and wanted to feed the Donor Class, inflation has finally begun to kick in.....yet nothing has worked as a hedge against that.....not stocks, not gold, not housing, not cryptos. Housing may lag a bit and not remain an input in overall price inflation (because rising rates hurt borrowing), but it seems to have peaked. Lumber coming off gives a hint as to how rate-sensitive housing is.
Too many 'investors' have a belief that assumes prices will always at least go back to where they were. Maybe that's true over the VERY long term, but as Keynes said, 'In the long term, we're all dead'.
When the stock market crashed in 1929, the Dow did not reach the same level until 1954---and that only because bankrupt companies were replaced in the index. That's 25 years to break even, non-inflation adjusted. In 1980 gold hit $850 and silver $48, and those levels took 30 years to beat. Japan hit its peak in 1989, and 33 years later remains well below that peak.
So many of today's 'investors' have never experienced a bear market. That suggests to me that if things continue south---whether equities or cryptos---panic will ensue. There are also precious few trades right now that are not 'crowded', as in everyone who wants to own already owns. Cash might lose the least as things shake out.
One final curiosity.....on the US Debt Clock, the scariest thing to me isn't the debt of the USG---as no govt ever has repaid its debt and no nation is going to start now---but the Avg Home Price vs Median Income. In 2000 it was $161,650 vs $31,627. Today it's $393,240 vs $35,692. So Median Income is up 13% while the Median Home Price is up 143%. Granted some of that is due to rates, but it smells bubblish....as do stocks and cryptos.
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For fun, watch this:
Especially when Cheryl Grice is playing....she is quite talented....but when Julian Bream chimes in, he displays genius. Also, his guitar has a much warmer sound. Grice's guitar sounds good until Bream plays the same notes on his.....
The other folks play the pieces; Bream is the piece. Bream, the guitar and the music are inseparable. Astonishing display of brilliance and artistry.
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How do Thai women compare with Western women as a wife?
in ASEAN NOW Community Pub
Posted
There's a trend in much of the developed and even developing world. Few people really want to commit to a long term, lifetime relationship. Everybody is self-centered to a large extent nowadays, me included.
Who wants to have kids? Not many. Thailand has a fertility rate below even the US, at 1.5 vs 1.7 in the US. Other Asian nations are worse. South Korea has the lowest fertility rate in the world (.9), and it isn't just because young Korean men are androgynous.
Perhaps it's 'evolution', but the world population is going to shrink, because men and women don't really like each other too much now, at least not so much that they want to commit to a lifetime together. That will impact relationships and make many of them temporary, as exit is easier when there's no kids involved. An optimist can chime in 'variety is the spice of life'.
A normal man is as likely to find a meaningful relationship at home or abroad....in the West or Thailand. Many men beef about getting fleeced in a divorce, but that is for a certain socio economic level that is not the top, since at the upper socio economic level, women now earn about the same as men. In my old industry, there were as about as many women making 7+ figures as men. Relationships at that level might have issues, but money was not one of them.
I might be at risk of generalizing, but in my experience, the men who end up marrying Thai women were, at best, near the median of earning and education, and most I have seen were below the mean. Their relatively meager earnings can seem like a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow to a poor Isaan woman. It's quite possible that in such instances everybody wins, but it is totally unrelated to whether Western women are attractive candidates for a relationship. Again, this might be a generalization, and no doubt many quite well-to-do Western men have linked up with Thai women. Good for them. Enjoy!
Just looking at external esthetics, I am of the opinion that Thai women are more physically attractive than Western Caucasian women. Certainly Thai women better fit the (perhaps outdated) definition of 'feminine' (unless one has a foot fetish, as Isaan women's feet quite often suggest a more rugged upbringing). Personality-wise, it all depends on what one wants. The cultural differences are huge, and the gap not easy to link, but men who seek beauty first might be able to ignore the differences or the lack of general knowledge one comes to expect from people having been on the planet for a couple decades or more. Western women (though perhaps not Millennials) tend to have more knowledge and can discuss more subjects than Thai women, but lose out in appearance IMO. Driven by testosterone, Thai women win; driven by intellect in my choice, Western women win.
I never had any problem with Western women. Many good friends there. I prefer Thai women, at least to share time with, because I'm terribly shallow and like beauty and have my view of what constitutes 'sexy'. Never had kids and feel no need to propagate my gene pool, so if I engage in assignations, it's for sport, not procreation.
It boils down to personal preference, of course. Those in Thailand, or who frequent a website aimed at Thailand, are a self-selected demographic, so most will prefer Thai over Western.