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Walker88

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Posts posted by Walker88

  1. 5 hours ago, BLMFem said:

    Now you're talking out of your butt (again) "Frank". Most (all) governments of countries that have large numbers of people travelling to the US have had to issue travel advisories.

    That's how bad it's gotten, buddy!

    The cult sees anything that relates to their messiah as blasphemy, so they feel it is their sacred duty to come to defense of their bloated charlatan clown felon, kind of like jihadis going after Danish cartoonists.

     

    They toss out "this has always happened" despite the fact they have absolutely no clue if it has or not.

     

    Add to this many stories now of NATURALIZED US citizens facing hours of questioning by Immigration when returning from an overseas trip. These are 100% legal full US Citizens, but they are now subject to interrogation and seizure of their mobile devices.

     

    Pure, 100% fascism. MAGAs are too stupid to see it, or think somehow born in a trailer park to white trash sperm and egg donors is superior to a naturalized citizen.

    • Agree 1
  2. It would seem to make sense. Anyone retired should have at least 2 million baht free and clear to place in a Thai bank. It’s hardly a fortune for someone who has worked his entire life. It demonstrates a kind of financial responsibility that is more likely to be a benefit to Thailand than someone who pays an agent to temporarily put 800K baht in a bank and lives hand to mouth on what a local might spend. Also, as retirees tend to be elderly, having the extra money in country makes it less likely that in an infirmed state a foreigner would become a burden on Thai society.

     

    I find it ironic that the folks most apoplectic about how immigrants are destroying the fabric of their home society feel it is almost a right for them to live in Thailand. Folks who "contribute" less than, say, 100K baht per month to the Thai economy are not exactly doing the country any great favor, so why should Thailand continue to welcome outsiders like that? What’s in it for Thailand? I suspect the same people who would bark at this increase would still be against the unassuming, law-abiding and tax-paying migrant to their home country, because "those people are changing our social fabric and culture". We'd be hearing the cries of "replacement theory".

     

    When the retirement rules were written, Thailand was less prosperous, so even meager economic contributions were welcome. That is no longer the case. Other countries, such as Malaysia, have upped the ante, expecting a more significant economic contribution from foreigners it allows to settle. Make a measurable contribution, and one is still welcome; just try to jump on the "lower cost retirement home" bandwagon, and they don't want you.

     

    Though I have no information corroborating this change in policy, it certainly makes sense for Thailand to do it.

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  3. Let's see how POTUS' "economic theory" works....

     

    I guess he assumes US workers will begin the work currently being done in sweatshops in Bangladesh, while females in Bangladesh will be ordering Gulfstream 700s. We buy what they make; they buy what we make.

     

    Obviously POTUS hasn't a clue how trade deficits develop, nor does he understand the work goals of Americans. Maybe he should listen to comedian Dave Chappelle:

     

    "Americans want to wear Nikes, not make them".

     

    OTOH, maybe POTUS thinks all the MAGAs on SSDI in States like TN, KY, WV and MS are chomping at the bit to spend 8-10 hours a day putting itsy bitsy little screws into iPhones or screwing in tiny LEDs into strings of Christmas lights. I suppose he could be right there, as such jobs would be challenging intellectually for the typical MAGA.

     

     

    • Thumbs Up 1
  4. 38 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

    The stock market is up over 100% last 10 years. Only an idiot would buy high and sell low.

    Oh my!  Ben Graham it ain't.

     

    What is "high"?

     

    You only know it after it's gone. Sometimes "high" is a way station on to "higher". Similarly, sometimes "low" is just a way station to "lower".

     

    Now admittedly I must have been lucky getting out near top tick, but I can still spend lucky money. Lucky money spends just like smart money. Now I'm sure your net worth dwarfs mine, but I have enough for a dozen lifetimes, so I'm not going to complain. Don't cry for me, susanlea.

     

    When I first stated my opinion that I thought both the market and the dollar were at recent highs, I think I saw lots of laugh and sad emojis, which I assume were from MAGAs. Well, MAGAs were wrong. Their man behind the curtain is a fraud.

     

    I also noticed one of my favorite amateur lines in this thread, saying something to the effect of "you haven't lost if you haven't sold". Now THAT deserves a laugh emoji.

     

    Secret: the market doesn't know and doesn't care where you bought, and is under no obligation to go back to new highs in the near term. A paper gain is a paper gain, but a paper loss is real money (as we used to say).

     

    As I have noted---to much Bronx Cheering---I do believe we have seen generational highs in the US market, and it will be 25 years before we see new highs. Rallies based on rumor or flip flopping of POTUS are gifts where believers can leg out.

     

    There are times when cash is king, and not necessary USD cash. Now is one of those times.

     

    Opinions, especially after the fact, are worth nothing. Results and net worth are all that count in the market.

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  5. Using a kind-of-like Bill Maher trick:

     

    "I don't know it for a fact; I just know it's true."

     

    Here's my take on what POTUS has done, which I predicted long ago. Folks can argue all they want, pretending to be economists, but as a trader, the absolute only thing that matters is results. You make money on a trade, or you lose. Results make sense, not all the political opinions in the world combined.

     

    First, I didn't want the market to tank; I just knew it would. (I completely exited US equities). Since I left, the market has been ugly.

     

    I did not want the dollar to tank; I just knew it would. (Yes, I went long the euro in the 1.03 to 1.04 range, and I'm now looking at 1.15)

     

    I don't want the economy to tank; I just know it will. (Recession if lucky, Depression if not.)

     

    I don't want unemployment to soar; I just know it will. (We'll see 10% UE in 2026, which will bode poorly for the midterms).

     

    The dollar is down 10% recently. The equity market is upwards of 20% down recently.

     

    Near term GDP number might look better than expected, but not because of underlying economic strength, but because consumers will hoard in front of the tariffs. Don't be fooled, especially when MAGAs boast.

     

    POTUS is a failed businessman, only saved by his dad's money and co-signed loans, until Mark Burnett created a fantasy, which POTUS has "wisely" used to grift off his goobers, with sneakers, bibles, crypto, a social media campaign donation entity, etc. His ability to run a $30 trillion economy is less than his ability to run a casino, and he bankrupted several of those.

     

    To paraphrase Oscar Wilde: "[MAGAs] may boo me, but when I go home and think of my money, I applaud myself."

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  6. I'm not religious, but if I had to choose, I'd pick Satan over anyone's deity.

     

    I mean, that Satan guy is supposed to be the epitome of evil, but all I ever hear is that it's him who makes a person cheat on their spouse or steal money or tell a lie.

     

    Deities, on the other hand, are supposedly omnipotent and all loving, but they bring tsunamis and earthquakes and childhood cancer.

     

    Compared to any god, Satan is a mere posseur when it comes to evil.

    • Haha 1
  7. India is nice, but only if you live like an 18th Century Maharajah.

     

    I lived a few years in the Chanakyapuri area of Delhi. It's wildly expensive, but safe. I had a household staff of cooks, cleaners, gardeners and security. I did not have to do the food shopping or cooking, and that is a huge plus. In all my time there, I did not get Delhi Belly even once. Loved the food.

     

    I became quite close to my staff, and the women shared their experiences growing up female in one of the lower castes. It ain't pretty. Opportunity for them was minimal, despite their above average intellect. The rape stories are real. Gang rape is a national sport, more than cricket.

     

    While I did some of my own driving, I did have a driver. Traffic is batsh!t crazy. One way roads merely mean you only go one way at a time. The guy coming at you full speed is also only going one way; it just happens to be at you.

     

    Stop at a traffic light, and a beggar suffering from leprosy, half his face missing, will come up to your window with a fingerless hand out. Cows have the right of way, even if a tuk tuk of schoolgirls is coming at a truck. Cow wins, schoolgirls lose.

     

    There's a massive tool booth area just outside Delhi in Gurgoan. I once saw a guy in a Suzuki car coming through the wrong way. I assume he thought "I go that way, I pay; I come this way, they pay me."

     

    I did a lot of time in Rajasthan, and loved Jodhpur and Jaisalmer. Getting there by road is "interesting", as the roads mostly suck and trucks or camel carts go wherever they want. Coming once from Chandagarh to Delhi, on an otherwise good road, I came across a 20+ car pile up, owing to bad fog and cars going the wrong way. Body parts strewn all over the road. It barely made page 20 of the Times of India, though I'd guess 15-30 deaths, going by body parts I counted.

     

    People do do their business wherever they are. I remember being in a tuk tuk heading to my guest house in Jodhpur. The alley was maybe 7 feet wide. Stuck in traffic for a moment, a mother parked he teen daughter just outside their hovel, the girls butt aimed at me, as she proceeded to do a huge #2 maybe two feet from my face. It wasn't an editorial comment on me; it was just how things are done. Her business fell in a drain that ran along the alley, washed away by bathing water and urine from neighbors.

     

    I also did Himachal Pradesh. If there is one place I would have enjoyed spending a year or two as a young adult, it would have been Manali, in the foothills of the Himalayas. It's more Buddhist than Hindu, the air is glorious, and there's a smell of Deodar trees in the wind, which are apparently a type of cedar. A wild few hour ride---if you survive---gets you to Rohtang Pass, at about 13,000 feet. The bottom of the drive is strewn with cars and buses that didn't make the 180 degree turns on dirt roads with no guardrails and 1000+ meter drops.

     

    Not sure I'd do it again, but India was great. The caveat I noted at the start as you'd better be sinfully rich, because living comfortably in India takes more than Pebble Beach kind of money.

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