Walker88

Gavin Newsom is calling nations and making trade deals....Canada, Mexico, Vietnam, China, Japan

California is the 5th largest economy in the world. It has 37 million people. I can name 16 Red States whose combined population is less. CA is an attractive market, so deal making should be easy. States rights and all.

Too bad for POTUS. Besides, it is Congress who sets tariffs, not the President, so Gov Newsom is under no obligation to go along with POTUS' insanity.

Once Newson succeeds, expect Oregon, Washington, Massachusetts, New York, Connecticut and Rhode Island to follow suit, maybe even Gov Shapiro of Pennsylvania.

POTUS can just keep hurting Red States. They love him, so let them enjoy his "talents".

Similar wins include Pompeii in 79AD, the Titanic on its maiden voyage, the 2024 Chicago White Sox, George McGovern in 1972, and Alexander Hamilton in his duel with Aaron Burr.

Step aside, The Onion; reality is weirder and funnier.

POTUS might have always had a woody for tariffs, though it's quite clear now he never understood them nor ever read David Ricardo. He probably thinks Smoot & Hawley were a one-hit wonder band from the 60s, kind of like Zager & Evans.

In his first term playing POTUS, he tasked his son-in-law Jared with finding him an expert on tariffs to add to his Administration. Jared went on Amazon and searched for books on tariffs, figuring he would find an expert somewhere. Jared spotted a book called "Death By China" that argued China was killing the US via trade policies. The author was a guy named Peter Navarro. Jared liked the title and recommended it to dad-in-law.

POTUS added Navarro as his tariff guru.

In his book, Navarro repeatedly quoted an economist named Ron Varo. Varo was portrayed as someone who had researched tariffs and had all the facts, forming the basis for Navarro's own opinions, which reinforced the opinions of POTUS.

There's only one problem: Ron Varo does not exist. He's a made up character. Ron Varo is also an anagram of N A V A R R O.

So when your 401K evaporates or your insurance company cannot pay a policy claim, thank Ron Varo.

You can also order Death By China on Amazon. Perhaps Amazon will offer it in a package along with Art of the Deal, so you can get two seminal works of fiction.

3 hours ago, blaze master said:

@Walker88

 

Is this one of your buddies from work ?

We both bend spoons. It's fun at Dairy Queen when some kid is trying to eat his banana split.

As for psychic ability, I'll leave that to POTUS, who seems to know that the key to eliminating the deficit is to cause a market crash, as if that's the path to abundance.

The tariffs are clouding the issue. I see here many MAGAs barking about the deficit. Okay......

Tell us, where in all of this drivel spewing from the golf course, is the data on how the deficit will be slashed? Put up some numbers. What's the time frame and what aspects of the messiah's Master Plan actually impact the yearly deficit?

What kind of factories and production facilities do you expect to be built, and how long will it take for these to bear fruit? What happens to 401ks and insurance company funds (should there be a natural disaster requiring policy payouts) and pensions while waiting for all of this? What about consumers who must spend more just to buy what they need to survive? How about job layoffs resulting from the decline in the world economy while this fantastical production switch is occurring? How are the tax cuts POTUS promises going to help the deficit? MAGAs still believe in trickle down?

Blind faith is nice if one is an Elmer Gantry and is trying to get the faithful to fund another Gulfstream, but when an economy, markets, world alliances, pensions, insurance funds, etc. are at stake, a little analysis is a lot more useful than having faith in a clown who bankrupted 6 casinos.

50 minutes ago, impulse said:

Anyone who believes that digging out of a $35 trillion dollar hole is going to be easy or painless (or take less than a few election cycles) is just fooling themselves. 

 

Or, more accurately, being sold a bill of goods in anticipation of the next election.  By purveyors of free money if you vote for me.

 

Just to quit digging deeper is going to require sacrifices.  But you gotta start sooner or later.  I'd prefer 10 years ago, but that's not the way that time works.  The best we can do is start today.

 

(And thank God we dodged that bullet in November)

 

Get your calculator out, and borrow a brain from someone who has one......

How exactly is what he is doing going to erase the deficit and make things better? Have you ever designed and built a factory, considering everything from labor costs to worker skills to tax incentives to power and transport sourcing? Not easy, not done quickly, and sometimes makes no sense---even if one could get behind tariffs.

Now on another topic....

Since homo sapiens (or their ancestors) walked out of Oldavai Gorge, exactly how many sovereign governments have repaid their debt? Exactly how many?

The system is always based on confidence and a collective agreement to suspend disbelief. That is the great secret of civilization, apparently lost on MAGAs. "Service" debt is all that has ever counted.

Anyone who has followed POTUS' career knows he knows nothing and has zero skill. He could never service his own debt, so he couldn't lead others to collectively suspend their disbelief. He defaulted on loans and defaulted on junk bonds. 6 bankruptcies.

Like sovereign governments, however, he long had his own "Central Bank". Ours is called the Federal Reserve. His was called "daddy". His father 1) gave him a massive allowance from the age of 3 until dad's death, 2) co-signed every loan POTUS took until his death, 3) once walked into an Atlantic City casino and bought $3.2 million in chips so that POTUS could take the cash and repay a personal loan due in NYC, 4) left POTUS almost half a billion dollars in inheritance.

Still, POTUS failed...as his tax returns show. Two things bailed POTUS out. One was that Mark Burnett created a fantasy and made POTUS a Game Show Host, which actually earned POTUS some income, as well as fooling the goobers of US society into believing the guy is some sort of success. The second thing was that---for some reason---Russian oligarchs put money into SIVs (Special Investment Vehicles) at Deutsche Bank and loaned the money to POTUS, or as Junior said, "We get all the money we need from Russia". The SIVs at DB are off balance sheet, but also callable.

So we have a lifelong failure, save for Mark Burnett and oligarchs, who somehow thinks tariffs will mean Americans will knit t-shirts just like women in Bangladesh. NOTHING In the tariff plan has anything to do with reducing the deficit. Nothing. Oh, and all the "cost savings" of DOGE amount to not even a rounding error in a single year's budget, much less the total National Debt. DOGE slashing the IRS workforce had the IRS itself estimating it will result in a yearly loss of $500,000,000,000 in tax revenues because people will know they can get away with cheating. Toss in POTUS planned tax cut---which economists estimate will add more than a $trillion a year in new budget deficits, and it should be clear even to MAGAs that POTUS really has no plan for slashing the deficit.

Instead, POTUS is slaughtering pensions, insurance company funding, 401Ks, etc., as the markets tank.

And the biggest joke of all? Even MAGAs might laugh if they knew the actual story of where the impetus for the tariff plan originated. Perhaps I'll start another thread to discuss that. Just Google "Ron Vara".

1 hour ago, anotherexpat4444 said:

Not sure you noticed, but the stock market lost $5,000,000,000,000 last week. Are you saying that all that selling came from students who cannot repay their loans and don't understand tariffs? The market collectively said they do not like the tariffs, and many of those traders are worth more than you can imagine in your wildest fantasies. They long ago repaid their student loans, and likely have added $millions to their alma mater's endowments.

Are you worth tens of millions of dollars? I'm guessing the answer is "No". If you're an expert on tariffs and economics, you would be worth millions.

Nice of you to say it was leftists who tried to assassinate the guy.

Do you know Jeffrey Dahmer voted Republican? Are all you rightists cannibals? Goodness!

As for "dealmaking", trying to do something for personal gain is hardly 'working for the people'. He got paid by the Saudis for hosting the tournament, which is a violation of the emoluments clause. He chose making personal money over going to Dover to receive the remains of 4 soldiers who died under his watch.

If only we had an Attorney General and a Justice Dept not hellbent on going after POTUS critics!

Oh, and I posted a chart from the Bureau of Economic Analysts (BEA) on the Wall Street Plummets thread to show you he had the worst economic performance since Hoover. BEA is a USG agency, not a partisan think tank.  BEA even projected the 2020 economy BEFORE Covid did most of its damage. Maybe BEA is also "economically illiterate"?

Your guy came out last since Hoover.

Another way a President can destroy his country is to treat soldiers over which he is ostensibly Commander-in-Chief as suckers and losers, choosing instead to go hang out with a bunch of 7th Century barbarians who are paying him. Money over duty.

I recall during the Obama Administration when the remains of two men working for the agency, killed in Afghanistan, arrived at Dover. The then CIA Director and several senior staffers drove from Langley to Dover to meet the aircraft at 2am. The two deceased men's families were present and the folks from the agency did their best to comfort them. Once the remains were turned over for burial, the agency folks drove back to Langley and went straight to work.

Respect.

Respect is something of which the current POTUS is incapable. It's all and only about him.

Yo, MAGAs...please tell us how Biden followed the ChatGPT outline and destroyed the US.

Under Biden, the economy boomed. Growth was highest since the late 1990s, US growth from 2021-2024 was three times the average of G7 nations, post-Covid inflation was brought down faster in the US than any other major nation, more jobs were created under Biden than under any POTUS ever, 800,000 new manufacturing jobs were created, ground was broken on the first US chip plants in decades, massive infrastructure repairs took place, the US was respected around the world, the stock market performed well and even made hundreds of billions for guys like Zuckerberg, Bezos, Musk and Ellison, and the average American's net worth jumped (unless one was a MAGA, as they seem to have missed out on the greatest opportunity to get wealthy ever). Heck, even crime dropped, as it tends to do in times of abundance.

So, MAGAs, go through the list generated by AI. Point out what Biden did per those lists and how that "destroyed" America.

Those of us who saw our fortunes grow since 2021 wonder where this "destruction" is, but it would be nice to have more of the same, instead of the obvious carnage we are experiencing since 20 January 2025.

It's quite clear that the crashing markets are going to hurt Consumer Confidence, already at a multi-year low. Over the next few months unemployment is going to move upward, probably to 6% before Autumn, and maybe 8% by 2026. The deficit is going to get even worse, as the combo of a declining economy and job losses at the IRS (the IRS itself estimated tax cheating is going to add $500,000,000,000 per year to the deficit, as fewer IRS staff will be unable to chase tax cheats), relationships with former allies are in tatters, and the US is in great danger of losing the foreign buyer of US Treasury debt. Who is going to step in and replace foreign money, and at what price?

Oh, and MAGAs, please refrain from saying justice was "weaponized" under Biden. Al Capone could make a more reasonable claim than POTUS, who stole and lied about taking highly classified documents, tried to overthrow the results of the election, called his goobers to DC knowing what they would do, and then pardoning the very terrorists who beat and bear sprayed 140 police and tried to hang the sitting Vice President. He was indicted because all the evidence suggested he committed crimes.

Well, US products will be cheaper if, after a few years of design, engineering, and building of factories, MAGAs go to work at the same rate as Bangladesh women in sweat shops. Given that the Bangladeshi women have more skills than the average MAGA, the quality will be lower.

Then again, many companies will consider what it would cost to buy land, design and build a facility, and then employ Americans to work.....and realize the costs are more than the tariffs, so why bother. It's better to keep the factories and shops in Vietnam and sell to the other 7,700,000,000 people of the world who are not Americans.

To top it off, Americans will be poor and wildly indebted after years of paying the high tariffs for all the goods not made in the US and not behind the tariffs.

Oh, and foreign companies are unlikely to trust POTUS....maybe they go to all the trouble of building a US factory, but at the slightest downturn in the US economy, POTUS issues an EO that says non-US owned companies---even if they have factories inside the US---get taxed or tariffed.

28 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

The only way this fails is if Trump blinks first.

 

I strongly suspect he will not.

 

He will go down in history as the man who saved America and possibly the Western world.

The only way this recovers is if POTUS blinks first.

I strongly suspect he will.....and then blame Biden.

Otherwise, he will go down in history as the man who started the Greatest Depression. Hoover, Smoot & Hawley will then be able to rest in peace.

35 minutes ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

I know better than to engage with the economically illiterate, no matter how smug they are🤣

Oooh, Nobel Laureate...educate us. (The Econ Nobel isn't a real Nobel, by the way)

Actually, forget us for a minute and go educate the markets.

Do an impersonation of Ralph Bellamy and Don Ameche in "Trading Places": "Turn those machines back on!!!!!!"

Oh, and go wake up David Ricardo from his eternal slumber and tell him he was wrong, too.

Did I waste my money on my Stanford MBA?  Do I have to give the money back I made on Wall Street?

Back when the election took place I wrote a post saying I expected a 20% drop in the market in 2025, and that I was cashing out and going to cash and a mix of currencies. MAGAs chortled at my absurdity. NASDAQ is down 22% from its December high and the euro is up vs the usd.

I guess I just got lucky. Maybe it's better to be a dumb baht billionaire than a brilliant MAGA.

7 hours ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

Do you seriously think after all the hoaxes and false narratives against Trump by the left collapsed into steaming piles of you know what, that any reasonable being will listen to any more leftist fact checks? It's over. Trump has the publics trust, the left don't. Ill trust Trump on this one not some weasel liberal "fact checker".

He has morons' trust, kind of like Jim Jones, David Koresh and other cult leaders had. It didn't end well for them, nor will it end well for MAGAmorons. The dumber a person, the more they are on POTUS' side.

Oddly, the billionaires sucked up to him hoping for tax breaks, but when you lose half your supposed net worth because your stock tumbles, a few % cut in tax rates isn't going to mean much.

The markets don't seem to trust him, and increasingly even Republicans are breaking ranks.

All he has left are the clueless.

On 4/4/2025 at 9:17 AM, mikeymike100 said:

"Finance guru Bill Ackman offered some stern advice to world leaders reeling from US President Donald Trump's tariffs amid fears of a global trade war.

In a post on X Thursday night, the CEO of Pershing Square urged world leaders to quickly strike a deal with the president as the tariffs - which range from 10 percent to upward of 50 percent - shook global markets.

'My advice to foreign leaders is that if you have not already reached out to President [Trump], you need to do so immediately,' he wrote.

'Trump is, at his core, a dealmaker who sees the world as a series of transactions,' Ackman continued, characterizing the commander-in-chief as a 'tough but fair negotiator.

'He loves to make deals and he loves to get things done promptly.'

Ackman also said that he suspects the president will 'reward the early dealmakers with fairer deals than those that wait to sit down at the negotiating table."

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/article-14570511/Bill-Ackman-advice-world-leaders-Trump-tariffs.html

Talking up his book, as we used to say on Wall Street.

Obviously Ackman's positions are getting slaughtered, and he's leveraged to the hilt. The 22% tumble in NASDAQ since mid December will hammer his portfolio, leaving him with only his administrative fee. He needs probably a 30% jump just to get back to even so that he can charge a performance fee.

If the market tumbles much more, he'll probably wind up his fund and open a new one, so that he can set things back to zero.

Though I know you're not a fan of POTUS, I still think you give him too much credit for not being an absolute idiot.

I will bet he thinks when he imposes tariffs on Vietnamese goods, those tariffs exist whether Vietnam sells to the US, Japan, or Pitcairn Island. I do believe the clown is that dumb.

1 minute ago, Harrisfan said:

Compared to the covid low most shares are up a lot.

Thanks to the glorious 4 years of Biden.

"This is the worst self-inflicted I've seen in the history of our country economically"

---Gene Sperling, former Chief of the National Economic Council

Obama inherited the 2008 Financial Crisis, and chose controversial steps to solve it, such as bailing out banks, insurers and the US auto industry

Biden inherited the mess of Covid, but took steps to mitigate it, and got the US growing 3 times faster than the average G7 nation, plus getting inflation down faster than any other major nation

This POTUS inherited a growing economy and vibrant job market, where all he has to do is sit on his hands and likely take credit for continued growth, but instead he interfered and is killing the equity market, economy, and likely worldwide economic growth. Never has a single person done so much harm in so short a period. Tens of millions will suffer as jobs get lost (it's coming; wait until the May-June job numbers), 401Ks get decimated, growth turns negative, and poor folks drop deeper into poverty.