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wadman

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Everything posted by wadman

  1. Good point. Usually in a recession, inflation goes down. But quite possibly not if Trump keeps all those tariffs in place.
  2. The US economy was doing just fine before Trump started all this tariff nonsense. So why the big need to cut interest rates?
  3. When the recession/depression comes, inflation will be even lower. Things may even get cheaper.
  4. What one also has to understand is that the true trade imbalance between China-US is not nearly as lopsided as it may seem. 1. Americans buy a lot of Chinese products, made in China, but directed by American companies. Such as iphones, Nikes, Disney toys, etc. A pair of Nikes at 20 USD factory price gets sold for 200 USD at retail in the US. Americans make the big profits, China is used for cheap labor. An iphone might have a factory price of 700 USD, and it's recorded as a 700 USD export from China to the US. But many of the components inside the iphone aren't made in China. 2. Americans don't really buy high end Chinese branded products from companies such as BYD, GWM, Geely (EVs), or Huawei, Xiaomi, Oppo (phones and electronics), or Lining, Erke, Anta (shoes and clothing). This is where the real money and value is in Chinese exports, but by and large Americans don't them for a variety of reasons (mostly because they have been blocked by the American government on "national security" grounds). 3. America runs a trade surplus on services with China, as they do with many countries. 4. There are quite a few American companies that operate inside China at the retail level. Think McDonald's, Burger King, KFC, Starbucks, Walmart, etc. Comparatively very few Chinese companies sell at the retail level in America. One report estimates the annual revenue from these American companies at 600 billion USD, while the Chinese counterparts take in 65 billion USD.
  5. All that for 10 rmb per pineapple?
  6. I don't do politics, they can monitor all they want.
  7. There is a certain amount of tongue in cheek in my post. Beijing itself is too cold for pineapples. China isn't really making agriculture and farming that big of a priority (other than what's needed for national security), manufacturing brings in more money.
  8. Letsvpn is the one that has never gone down. May or may not be monitored by the government, but as long as you aren't politically active, who cares
  9. Like I already told you in my last post, all you need is to know 1 person with VPN access in China. You can then use his VPN access to install a VPN on your own phone or computer.
  10. The average educated Chinese is very aware of VPNs, they are not stupid. All it takes is for someone in China to know 1 person who has a VPN in China. He can then use that VPN to download and install his own VPN. A typical Chinese person has tons of friends, family, coworkers, acquaintances. I am telling you, I am in China right now, using a VPN, and I can access YouTube just fine! In the words of Elon: you are truly a more on.
  11. Or by using a VPN. I watch YouTube all the time in China.
  12. For a typical apartment with 3 occupants, say, monthly bill (1 USD = 7.32 rmb): - water 80-100 rmb - electricity 150 - 500 rmb, depending on how much you run the Aircon in the summer, and the heater in the winter - gas (as in natural gas, most homes, apartments use gas for cooking and hot water) 150-250 rmb
  13. Beijing doesn't produce pineapples, too cold. I have seen pineapples being sold for 10 rmb (1.36 USD) for a whole fruit, too low value for Beijing to really care about.
  14. I don't foresee a mass migration of white people into China now or in the future. Do you? So America and the UK will be whiter than China for a very, very long time.
  15. 1. You are saying you and your friends are living on 6000 - 7000 rmb a month, without any "extras". I'm telling you that locals can easily live cheaper than that. I have given you some actual, current pricing in cost of living items. 2. I can guarantee that I know a whole more about China than you. I have been kicking around in China for the past 22 years. 3. Again, I can guarantee that I know more about the working people in China than you. Having worked with them, dealt with them, done business with them. Based on your claims, it seems you have taught a few years in China, and think you know everything about it. Do you even speak and read/write Chinese? It's true what they say: it's not the know nothings that are dangerous, it's the ones with a little bit of knowledge but think they know a lot.
  16. Still a whole lot whiter than China.
  17. IMO, the China problem is that the Chinese (or any other non-white country) may not overtake America in terms of living standards (individually) or power (as a country).
  18. That's because you lived like a laowai (foreigner) with laowai tastes and standards. Locals live significantly cheaper. In Shenzhen city, a typical starting wage in a restaurant is around 5000 rmb (=682 USD), people live just fine on this. Find shared accommodations for 700-1400 rmb per month, phone bill 59 rmb, eat cheap meals, buy very cheap consumer goods online. As an actual, real world example: I am paying 79 rmb (= 10.78 USD) per month for my mobile phone account + wired high speed internet. That's about 1 McDonald's meal in America.
  19. "thesetat" has absolutely no clue what he is talking about. He thinks that the tariff war will make prices rise in China for those earning 1000 USD or less there. I am currently in China (leaving for Indonesia later today), and I can tell you for a fact that even before the tariff war, prices of manufactured goods had been going DOWN. Partially because factories get more efficient at making things, but the bigger reason is that everybody buys their stuff online now. And if you think shopping on Temu, Alibaba was cheap (before Trump cancelled the de minimis), wait until you see how low prices are in China. Cost of labor has been about steady. So going out for a meal, say, isn't getting cheaper, as that directly involves labor in the restaurant. Mind you, even the restaurants are getting more efficient (cutting costs). You no longer have a waiter taking your order. Instead you scan a QR code with your phone, up pops the menu, and you order from there, and pay through the app too. So a lot of labor saved there. 1. In terms of direct buying: the 1000 USD earner in China won't be directly buying a lot of goods imported from the US, as he simply can't afford it. 2. In terms of indirectly buying: China used to buy soybeans from the US. The far majority of this was in the form of animal feed, to feed their pigs as the Chinese do love their pork. But there are plenty of alternatives to US soybeans, China can buy it from Brazil, Russia, etc. China can also buy rapeseed meal from India instead, to feed their pigs. So the 1000 USD worker does buy pork, but it won't be going up in price due to the tariff war. Quite on the contrary, the tariff war does cause economic pain for China, so people have less money overall. Less money = less demand = prices go down. That may sound good for the consumer, but remember that they have less money, so overall it is still economic pain.
  20. It's obvious you have never been.
  21. For those making 1000 USD or less, they won't be buying a lot of imported American products, if at all. This trade war will have a deflationary effect on prices in China (in China, not America), meaning things will get cheaper on average. The problem is that Chinese exports to the US will go down, which means reduced money/business. The deflationary effect will touch on salaries as well, at the very least that 1000 USD/month worker won't be getting a raise.
  22. Most complete video I have seen is this one, if only the Thai presenter would stop yapping so we can hear the audio of the CCTV video better. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=E72S9DR_Vgw
  23. There is another video on YouTube. In that video, the Brit is running on the sidewalk, the 2 Thai guys on their scooter catch up to the Brit, and pass him. The scooter then stops a few meters in front of the Brit. Initially, the Thai guys never got off their scooter, they were still sitting on it. At this point, the Thais had their backs to the Brit (although their heads were turned around obviously). The Brit walks towards the Thais on their scooter. The Brit then attempts to sit on the back on the scooter (as if he was getting a ride from the Thai guys). At this point, the Thai guys got off the scooter (in a non aggressive manner). There appears to some video missing, because next we see the Thai guys standing in front of their scooter, and the Brit charging them at full speed. He must have started his run from about 10 meters back. And that's when the physical altercation happens. As has already been pointed out, the whole series of events is rather puzzling. Why would the Thai guys chase the Brit, if he never even made it into their bar, and was leaving already. It doesn't seem like it started off as a confrontational situation. The Thai guys testified to police that they ask the Brit how they could help him. Yes, I know... it's not like they wouldn't lie, but there does seem to be some truth to it, although it may not be the whole truth. Is it possibly that the Brit was running because he wanted to get to some other destination? And then he tried to hitch a ride on the back of the scooter, thinking the Thai guys would give him a ride? And when that fell through, he tried to make off with the scooter to get to his destination.
  24. From the video, the 2 Thai guys were just standing in front of their bike, they were not advancing towards the Brit at all. I don't see how they were "chasing" the Brit, if they weren't even moving at all. We can't even see the Brit on camera at the beginning, he was that far away. And then we see the Brit charging (literally charging, at a run) the 2 Thai guys, he pushes 1 Thai guy forcefully, mounted the bike, and tried to make off with it. That's when the physical stuff started. IMO it's clear that it was the Brit who initiated the fight.
  25. Foreign Wechat pay account = Wechat pay account registered with a foreign passport. Local Wechat pay account = Wechat pay account registered with a China ID. The issue with Wechat pay (now officially renamed to: Weixin pay) is currency control. Meaning that China doesn't allow you to take unlimited amounts of money out of China. Local Wechat pay accounts can be used for payment outside of China, up to a certain amount per year. I think it's something like the 500k or 1 million RMB per citizen per year. This amount is applied to all money sent or spent outside of China. So if someone makes a bank transfer from a China bank account to a US account (for example), that amount counts towards that limit. It's too complicated to track foreign spending on a foreign wechat pay account so they don't allow you spend any money outside of China. Short version: For foreign Wechat pay accounts, you cannot use it outside of China. You can use it in China, as that isn't taking any money out of China. Long version: Strictly speaking, you can use a foreign wechat pay account to pay a vendor outside of China, IF that vendor is registered as a Chinese company. Example: you are in Thailand, you book a flight with a Chinese airline, you can pay with your foreign wechat account. I have a wechat pay account registered with a foreign passport. It works like a charm inside China, it does not work in Thailand (I have tried).
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