wadman

IMO it isn't so much a case of who will win this tariff trade war, and which side will fold first. 1. It's overwhelmingly obvious by now that America (and the euros to some degree) want to contain China. Trump in his first term put tariffs on China, Biden did too, and now Trump has put even more tariffs. It's just like a extortion/blackmailing/protection money kinda of situation: once you pay, there will almost be more demands in the future. 2. 15% (400+ billion) of China exports to the US is good chunk of money. But none of that export is in truly high profit (profit for China) products, as I have detailed here 3. China is/was coerced into buying soybean, LNG from the US. LNG is especially a costly one, as they have access to cheap Russian gas and oil. 4. So overall, the economic benefit of this 15% of exports isn't nearly as big as you would think at face value. China had already reduced US exports as a PERCENTAGE of their total exports (from something like 30% down to 15%). No need to think they can't survive cutting the remaining 15%. 5. That 15% US exports is 3% of China GDP. So even if all of that were to disappear, the China GDP would go down by 3%. Except it wouldn't, because the China government is sitting on tons of reserve cash, and they can easily afford to use that to cushion to blow. 6. Both the Republicans and Democrats in the US see China's economic strength as a long term problem, and have so for years. So I don't think the US will "fold" either. They just don't like the way Trump went about it. You would think, that with all the anti-China propaganda released by the west, it would be easy to marshall a coalition against China in terms of trade. But Trump did the exact opposite: he pissed off everybody.

There are some cases where Chinese nationals have their passport taken for "safekeeping" by their employer/government. One fairly high level bank manager told me that her passport had been taken for safekeeping, same with other managers at a high level. Reason: so they don't embezzle a big bunch of money, and then skip the country.

China isn't going to start a war with Taiwan because of US tariffs. Even if the economic situation with the US escalates, there is still the economic ties with the rest of the world. The EU would cut back trade drastically, if China were to invade. As would Japan, South Korea, etc.

Good point. Usually in a recession, inflation goes down. But quite possibly not if Trump keeps all those tariffs in place.

The US economy was doing just fine before Trump started all this tariff nonsense. So why the big need to cut interest rates?

When the recession/depression comes, inflation will be even lower. Things may even get cheaper.

What one also has to understand is that the true trade imbalance between China-US is not nearly as lopsided as it may seem. 1. Americans buy a lot of Chinese products, made in China, but directed by American companies. Such as iphones, Nikes, Disney toys, etc. A pair of Nikes at 20 USD factory price gets sold for 200 USD at retail in the US. Americans make the big profits, China is used for cheap labor. An iphone might have a factory price of 700 USD, and it's recorded as a 700 USD export from China to the US. But many of the components inside the iphone aren't made in China. 2. Americans don't really buy high end Chinese branded products from companies such as BYD, GWM, Geely (EVs), or Huawei, Xiaomi, Oppo (phones and electronics), or Lining, Erke, Anta (shoes and clothing). This is where the real money and value is in Chinese exports, but by and large Americans don't them for a variety of reasons (mostly because they have been blocked by the American government on "national security" grounds). 3. America runs a trade surplus on services with China, as they do with many countries. 4. There are quite a few American companies that operate inside China at the retail level. Think McDonald's, Burger King, KFC, Starbucks, Walmart, etc. Comparatively very few Chinese companies sell at the retail level in America. One report estimates the annual revenue from these American companies at 600 billion USD, while the Chinese counterparts take in 65 billion USD.

All that for 10 rmb per pineapple?

I don't do politics, they can monitor all they want.

There is a certain amount of tongue in cheek in my post. Beijing itself is too cold for pineapples. China isn't really making agriculture and farming that big of a priority (other than what's needed for national security), manufacturing brings in more money.

Letsvpn is the one that has never gone down. May or may not be monitored by the government, but as long as you aren't politically active, who cares

Like I already told you in my last post, all you need is to know 1 person with VPN access in China. You can then use his VPN access to install a VPN on your own phone or computer.

The average educated Chinese is very aware of VPNs, they are not stupid. All it takes is for someone in China to know 1 person who has a VPN in China. He can then use that VPN to download and install his own VPN. A typical Chinese person has tons of friends, family, coworkers, acquaintances. I am telling you, I am in China right now, using a VPN, and I can access YouTube just fine! In the words of Elon: you are truly a more on.

Or by using a VPN. I watch YouTube all the time in China.

For a typical apartment with 3 occupants, say, monthly bill (1 USD = 7.32 rmb): - water 80-100 rmb - electricity 150 - 500 rmb, depending on how much you run the Aircon in the summer, and the heater in the winter - gas (as in natural gas, most homes, apartments use gas for cooking and hot water) 150-250 rmb

Beijing doesn't produce pineapples, too cold. I have seen pineapples being sold for 10 rmb (1.36 USD) for a whole fruit, too low value for Beijing to really care about.

I don't foresee a mass migration of white people into China now or in the future. Do you? So America and the UK will be whiter than China for a very, very long time.

1. You are saying you and your friends are living on 6000 - 7000 rmb a month, without any "extras". I'm telling you that locals can easily live cheaper than that. I have given you some actual, current pricing in cost of living items. 2. I can guarantee that I know a whole more about China than you. I have been kicking around in China for the past 22 years. 3. Again, I can guarantee that I know more about the working people in China than you. Having worked with them, dealt with them, done business with them. Based on your claims, it seems you have taught a few years in China, and think you know everything about it. Do you even speak and read/write Chinese? It's true what they say: it's not the know nothings that are dangerous, it's the ones with a little bit of knowledge but think they know a lot.

Still a whole lot whiter than China.

IMO, the China problem is that the Chinese (or any other non-white country) may not overtake America in terms of living standards (individually) or power (as a country).

That's because you lived like a laowai (foreigner) with laowai tastes and standards. Locals live significantly cheaper. In Shenzhen city, a typical starting wage in a restaurant is around 5000 rmb (=682 USD), people live just fine on this. Find shared accommodations for 700-1400 rmb per month, phone bill 59 rmb, eat cheap meals, buy very cheap consumer goods online. As an actual, real world example: I am paying 79 rmb (= 10.78 USD) per month for my mobile phone account + wired high speed internet. That's about 1 McDonald's meal in America.

"thesetat" has absolutely no clue what he is talking about. He thinks that the tariff war will make prices rise in China for those earning 1000 USD or less there. I am currently in China (leaving for Indonesia later today), and I can tell you for a fact that even before the tariff war, prices of manufactured goods had been going DOWN. Partially because factories get more efficient at making things, but the bigger reason is that everybody buys their stuff online now. And if you think shopping on Temu, Alibaba was cheap (before Trump cancelled the de minimis), wait until you see how low prices are in China. Cost of labor has been about steady. So going out for a meal, say, isn't getting cheaper, as that directly involves labor in the restaurant. Mind you, even the restaurants are getting more efficient (cutting costs). You no longer have a waiter taking your order. Instead you scan a QR code with your phone, up pops the menu, and you order from there, and pay through the app too. So a lot of labor saved there. 1. In terms of direct buying: the 1000 USD earner in China won't be directly buying a lot of goods imported from the US, as he simply can't afford it. 2. In terms of indirectly buying: China used to buy soybeans from the US. The far majority of this was in the form of animal feed, to feed their pigs as the Chinese do love their pork. But there are plenty of alternatives to US soybeans, China can buy it from Brazil, Russia, etc. China can also buy rapeseed meal from India instead, to feed their pigs. So the 1000 USD worker does buy pork, but it won't be going up in price due to the tariff war. Quite on the contrary, the tariff war does cause economic pain for China, so people have less money overall. Less money = less demand = prices go down. That may sound good for the consumer, but remember that they have less money, so overall it is still economic pain.

It's obvious you have never been.

For those making 1000 USD or less, they won't be buying a lot of imported American products, if at all. This trade war will have a deflationary effect on prices in China (in China, not America), meaning things will get cheaper on average. The problem is that Chinese exports to the US will go down, which means reduced money/business. The deflationary effect will touch on salaries as well, at the very least that 1000 USD/month worker won't be getting a raise.

Most complete video I have seen is this one, if only the Thai presenter would stop yapping so we can hear the audio of the CCTV video better. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=E72S9DR_Vgw