Danderman123

You would have loved this guy.

First Amendment - don't forget it.

Last month, I flew to the US to request an absentee ballot. Well, it hasn't come yet, and time is short. So I just booked a flight to the US for Election Day to vote against Trump one more time. I used Frequent Flyer miles, so I can cancel if my ballot arrives soon. Oh, voter registration had been suspended, so I fixed that in my last trip.

Polls are not always predictive. Early voting is more predictive, but not 100%. It's possible that 100 million Trumpers will vote in the election. Possible, but not likely. Based on early voting data, Harris is likely to win the big 3 Midwest swing states plus NE-2. That would win the election. It would take an enormous Trump turnout to overcome the early voting. I'm not seeing evidence of big enthusiasm for Trump at this point. He's having to book smaller venues to fill them up, and people are leaving early. Trump isn't getting big early vote numbers.

A bunch of stuff you will forget about after November 5. Mindless drivel. Here is some actual information: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote

News about what kind of weapons were used by Israel?

Half of Americans see Donald Trump as a fascist: POLL The problem is any voter who likes Fascists.

A bunch of nonsense in response to the news that Trump is a Fascist. Next thing, you will tell us that Trump will make the trains run on time.

"Open border, woke" are just mindless words used in place of the usual racist or sexist cliches. Trump let in 3 million illegals, and it would have been more, except for COVID. Illegals are attracted to a good economy. I guess you are thinking Trump will crash the election so they won't come.

Nothing is for sure in this election.

The early voting is showing that Pennsylvania is close to being locked up for Harris, with a 500,000 vote firewall. Michigan is not far behind, and Wisconsin is looking good in early voting. There is a 100,000 vote firewall in Wisconsin as of today, which grows every day. That's the ballgame right there. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/wisconsin-results

You say Trump tells it like it is, but then you say don't listen to his words. "They're eating the dogs They're eating the dogs".

America is doing pretty well right now. I made a million baht off one stock alone this year. Let's not rock the boat!

Yep, it's a close race, within the margin of error of the polls. TIPP Tracking Poll Day 11: Harris Extends Slim Lead To 3 Points In Heated Race Harris’s Fourth Straight Day of Gains as Race Tightens

Rupert Murdoch's last gasp. Trump is getting destroyed in early voting. He is on the cusp of losing the big three Midwest states, which would make this a quick win for Harris.

There has been an explosion of fake Republican polls in October. No problem, polls aren't votes.

Typically, 90% of party members vote for their candidate. Turnout by party members is typically predictive of the number of votes for that party. Right now, Philadelphia is voting Dem by 10 - 1, which means almost a 100,000 vote firewall for Harris. Unless you think they are all voting for Trump.

This Marist? Marist Arizona Poll: U.S. Presidential Contest in Arizona, October 2024. Trump +1 Against Harris

You cannot use 2020 as a model for future elections - the Dems had no ground game, and lots of Dems didn't want to go to the polls because of COVID. So, more voted absentee or went to early voting.

With a total Pennsylvania electorate of 8 million, a firewall of 500,000 votes by Election Day should be enough to seal the deal.

Here is an Arizona poll with some interesting numbers: Harris (56%) has the advantage over Trump (44%) among those who say they have already voted. Yes, it's just one poll. But the implication is that gender, rather than party affiliation, is predictive of early voting numbers.

My point is that PA + MI + WI is the ball game. Keep your eye on the ball!

Looks like Trump is getting wiped out in Pennsylvania. Maybe his ground game will help him generate some turnout. Oops. Trump ground game in key states flagged as potentially fake

How about Michigan?

RCP relies on a flood of fake Republican polls. 538 is a better source, as they vet and rate their polls. However, it's pretty clear that the polls show a tight race, and it comes down to turnout. But @Yellowtail doesn't have any talking points about early voting, so all he can do is thrash around and troll when confronted with actual voting numbers: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote