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Sparktrader

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Everything posted by Sparktrader

  1. I read the links, and name calling means you cannot discuss science.
  2. Not much to read in those links. Forecasts are forecasts. If your models are wrong by 30% plus then your models are pretty inaccurate and not much value.
  3. I read your links, not much there. Wrong estimates by 37.5%.
  4. Obviously you failed to read the links you posted. Wrong by 37.5%. Thats pretty bad really. "Twenty years after the 1990 prediction, we see it’s not perfectly accurate – it’s about a 0.4 degree rise instead of a 0.55 degree rise – but it’s still statistically significantly above zero,” he said." If a stockbroker predicts a profit of $137.5m and it comes in at $100m thats a big blunder. Same with temps, 37.5% overestimated is a poor estimate. Mostly wrong, not mostly right.
  5. 0.35 vs 0.15 is 133% wrong. 0.25 is 66% wrong. Only the models up to 0.2 are close enough but if being precise the 0.13 to 0.17 models the only real accurate ones. If journos want to spin it another way its spin not fact. Good models should be within 15%. If you cant produce a model within 15% accuracy then you arent doing a good job.
  6. 0.15 times 8 is 1.2 degrees over 80 years. If anyone is predicting 3 degrees of warming in 80 years I wouldnt buy real estate from them.
  7. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/oct/01/ipcc-global-warming-projections-accurate Only the 0.1 to 0.2 models are close enough. The 0.21 to 0.35 models wrong by too much.
  8. Since 1990, global surface temperatures have warmed at a rate of about 0.15°C per decade, within the range of model projections of about 0.10 to 0.35°C per decade. As the IPCC notes, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/oct/01/ipcc-global-warming-projections-accurate Lets analyse this reality 0.15+ 0.05+ or - is close enough so the 0.1 to 0.2 models are ok. The models at 0.21 to 0.35+ are wrong to very wrong. 0.35 vs 0.15 is a degree of error of 133% 0.25 vs 0.15 is 66% wrong. I could build a better model than that. I predict 0.08 to 0.16 warming per decade next 50 years. I will bet baht on it.
  9. In addition to multi-millennial glacial and interglacial cycles, there are shorter cold-warm cycles that occur on approximately 200 to 1,500 year time scales. The mechanisms that cause these cycles are not completely understood, but are thought to be driven by changes in the sun, along with several corresponding changes such as ocean circulation patterns http://www.fs.usda.gov/ccrc/education/climate-primer/natural-climate-cycles
  10. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200430113003.htm
  11. So all the climate change from 4bn years ago to 1850 didnt happen? Wow.... No natural change? Wow Some theory you have
  12. a letter scheduled for publication April 30 in the journal Nature Climate Change, the researchers say that projections from one of the leading models, known as CESM2, are not supported by geological evidence from a previous warming period roughly 50 million years ago. The researchers used the CESM2 model to simulate temperatures during the Early Eocene, a time when rainforests thrived in the tropics of the New World, according to fossil evidence. But the CESM2 model projected Early Eocene land temperatures exceeding 55 degrees Celsius (131 F) in the tropics, which is much higher than the temperature tolerance of plant photosynthesis -- conflicting with the fossil evidence. On average across the globe, the model projected surface temperatures at least 6 C (11 F) warmer than estimates based on geological evidence. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200430113003.htm
  13. Except it is. Not 1 scientist can prove how much is nature and how much is man. Not one.
  14. Yes La Nina discovered in the 1990s. Shows how little humans know about the earth.
  15. Hey bro Gidday mate Pretty damn easy Taxi Tixi Yes Yis Easiest to tell in the world One lot speaks rough English The other some weird made up language
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