Longwood50

15 hours ago, Scott said:

But with regard to the spread, it is still largely the unvaccinated driving the spread, at least from what I am able ascertain from various sources. 

Perhaps but if that was true, those countries with the highest covid vaccination rates "should have" the lowest rates of covid infection per million because they would have the fewest unvaccinated to spread the virus.  

Yet Portugal and Spain are number 1 and number 3 in covid vaccination rates yet have among the highest rates in Europe.  Belgium and the Netherland have much higher rates of covid vaccination, border Germany which has only a 59% covid vaccination rate and yet is among the countries with the lowest rate of covid infection per million. 

In trying to look for consistent correlations between factors that influence covid infection rates they only one that seems to be true is if you are an island and a warm sunny environment you are more likely to have a low covid infection rate. 
In the USA states like Alaska have 1 person per square mile in population density compared to an almost identical population in Washington DC with almost 12,000 people per square mile, yet Washington DC's rate is half of Alaska's despite similar vaccination rates.  Why?  Who the heck knows.  

1 hour ago, webfact said:

NSC chief says relaxation of Covid curbs on entertainment venues will be further discussed

Yes so long as the bar owners have a pulse they will continue to "discuss it" 

 

16 hours ago, Scott said:

Virtually no place has come close to the level of vaccination to reach herd immunity

There is no correlation between level of vaccine and covid infection rates.  Portugal has the highest level and Spain the third highest level of vaccination and yet are among the highest level per million of Covid infection.  Germany has a much lower level of vaccination than bordering Belgium and the Netherlands and those two countries have substantially higher levels of Covid infection. 
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=THA

I am vaccinated and would encourage all to do so.  However though I was hopeful that that vaccines would be an effective preventative they appear to have the most benefit from reducing the severity of the virus if contracted.  





I am afraid that Covid will be just like the flu.  Despite decades of having vaccines, on average 9% of the entire world contracts the flu each year.  The best solution may be with drugs and other treatments to administer to patients to contract covid to mitigate the severity of covid. 

11 hours ago, Scott said:

It's not the number of vaccinated people that affect the spread, it is the number of UNVACCINATED people that drive infections.  

 

I am not sure I understand the difference.  Wouldn't the percentage of vaccinated people dictate the percentage of unvaccinated.  

Now I am vaccinated and would encourage everyone to do so.  With that said, a look at states in the USA and countries in Europe those often high vaccination rates and high rates of covid infection.  

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/

See the attached study by Harvard university showing no strong correlation.  

I suspect that Pfizer wants to safeguard its intellectual property and not have it fall into the hands of those who might use it to distribute a competing product.  Not that any country is Asia would ever steal intellectual property and counterfeit it. 

On 11/15/2021 at 5:26 PM, placeholder said:

I specifically chose those countries with much lower vaccination rates and compared them to countries with higher vaccination rates. The differences are uniformly  huge.

Try again.  This time avoiding your predisposed bias. 

 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7/figures/3

27 minutes ago, placeholder said:

he central and eastern members of the EU have much lower vaccination rates than those in the west.

Do you always contort whatever statistics are shown to conform to your own opinion.  You go back and forth.  Population density is a factor but when it is demonstrated that Washington DC has by far the highest population density and a low covid rate, that doesn't count.  When it is pointed out that the Netherlands, and Belgium have higher covid vaccination rates than bordering Germany but substantially higher covid rates, then it is the "specific states" within Germany that count. 

For every factor, you can point to a "correlation" but then without much effort find numerous examples that show the opposite correlation.  Spain and Portugal have the highest covid vaccination rates and are amount the highest covid infection rates.  Neighboring Italy and Greece have lower vaccination rates and lower covid infection rates.  The same is true for the Netherlands and Belgium with have higher vaccination rates yet higher infection rates than Germany.  Likewise  France has a higher covid vaccination rate and higher covid infection rate than Germany or don't those borders count for you either since they don't match your predisposed opinion. 

21 hours ago, placeholder said:

. Just compare European countries with low rates of vaccinations against those with high rates. The correlation is huge and unmistakeable. 

I did, obviously you can't read 


Portugal and Spain have two of the three highest rates of covid vaccination and also are in the top quartile for covid infection rate.  Poland has the lowest covid vaccination rate and has a rate that is approximately 23% lower than Spain and Portugal  Greece has a rate of covid infection 25% less than Spain and Portugal but a rate of vaccination of only 60% compared% o Portugal's rate of 86.4% and  Spains  I don't know where you studies statistics but I suggest you didn't pass the course. 

 

 

On 11/13/2021 at 4:33 PM, placeholder said:

And how do vaccination rates correlate with hospitalization and death rates?

Did anyone say anything about hospitalization and death Rates again you are deflecting. Do I think the vaccines help reduce that yes.  I specifically said covid infection rates. 


The vaccination rate of Alaska is 53.3% and has a population of 731,545 giving it a population density of 1 per square mile and has a covid infection rate of 191,150 per million  This compares to Washington DC whose vaccination rate is a whopping 64.6% and has a population of 692,686  giving it a population  density of 11,686 per square mile yet its covid infection rate is 92,626 per million.  Looking to Europe 

Your "theory" of vaccination rates shows that two of the countries with the highest covid vaccination rates Portugal and Spain have covid infection rates higher than Italy and much higher than Poland that p.s. has the lowest vaccination rate has a much lower covid rate than Portugal or Spain. But I know you are of the opinion that since Poland is not an "Iberian peninsula" country you can't compare them.

So lets try bordering countries where Belgium and the Netherlands surprise surprise have higher covid vaccination rates than bordering Germany and Luxexburge with an almost identical rate of covid vaccination has a covid infection rate double Germany.  

As previously stated the statistics show that there is no strong correlation between wearing masks, quarantines, vaccination rates, population density and the covid infection rate.    

To further prove that these are the 15 countries with the highest covid vaccination rate and the 15 countries with the lowest covid vaccination rate and their rates of covid infection per million.   Yep the correlation is those countries with the lowest rate of covid vaccination have the lowest rates of covid infection per million.  Even those with high rates of covid vaccination Spain and Cambodia have near identical vaccination rates but markedly different infection rates, the same is true for Quatar versus South Korea. 


I am shocked to see Washington D.C. a city with a population density nearly  20 times neighboring Maryland where 44% of the population is black and it is reported that 49% of blacks are obese, and yet it has the 5th lowest covid infection rate in the entire USA.   It just shows no one knows the why's and to postulate that somehow masks, quarantines, curfews, social distancing is doing something dramatic while clearly even the vaccines are not, is just pure conjecture.

Why?  who knows but surely all those theories about what effectively is a deterrent to covid infection are debunked by looking at the statistics world wide. 







https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
 

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=OWID_WRL

So are large gatherings with people drinking, socializing, a problem or not? 

 

1 minute ago, khunPer said:

They can't explain the Covid-prevention's logic either in my otherwise normally considered fairly developed Scandinavian home country,

I agree.  The statistics show there are countries that border each other with identical protocols and yet varying covid infection rates.  You have states in the USA like North Dakota, South Dakota and Alaska with very few people per sq km with high rates, and areas like Washington DC with 11,000 people per km with low rates.  You can point to states with elderly populations with low rates of infection.  

All of the stats show that it is clear as mud as to what if anything works.  Even high rates of covid vaccine such as in Belgium still result in high rates of covid infection. 

 

3 hours ago, Tony125 said:

Right ! As the music gatherers will be wearing masks  while the drinkers will be sitting at tables or bar counter no masks talking/yelling, shouting  and spreading droplets all over the bar.

I guess this must be the exception since I "think" I see some of those music gatherers not wearing masks. 

The Youtube video seems to indicate a few others as well. 



 

2 hours ago, placeholder said:

As for the populations of individual cities in the Scandinavian nations, you didn't note that Norway, Finland and Denmark have about half the population of Swede

Do you ever make a cohesive statement.  You argued that the reason that Luxemburg had a higher covid infection rate was "concentration" of people.  Guess what, that is exactly what urban centers are, a concentration of people.  Given that Sweden has more and larger concentrations of people hence using your logic they should have a higher covid infection rate.  

Conversely I point out that the states in the USA with some of the highest concentrations of people such as Washington DC and Maryland have low covid infection rates versus Alaska with only 1 person per square mile has a high covid infection rate which pretty well debunks your population density thought process. 

As to your shift to "vaccination rates"  Belgium's vaccination rate is notably higher than neighboring Germany but Belgium's covid infection rate is double Germany.  Care to make another off the wall wild A** assumption to justify your cockamamy assertion as to why Sweden's rate of Covid is not markedly is no markedly higher than most of Europe.  

We don't know why Finlands, Norways, and Denmarks rate is markedly lower.  Nor do we know why Belgiums, the Netherlands, Luxenburg and Polands rates are all markedly higher than Germany.  Just as we don't know why Estonia only 82 KM from Finland has a much higher covid rate.  

But one thing for sure is it isn't about masks, quarantines, curfews, no alcohol, closed pubs, etc.  If those were truly effective, Sweden's would be the worst covid rate and neighboring countries with "identical" covid protocols would have identical results.  THEY  DONT

17 hours ago, placeholder said:

As for German states compared to Luxembourg. What you don't note is that Luxembourg's population is concentrated in the south center of the nation close to Belgium and France.

Bull <deleted>.

If it as you theorize that it is "population density" then why is Sweden's different rate of infection attributed to "concentrated urban areas"  It's top 10 cities all have more than 100,000 people compared to much smaller urban areas in Finland, Denmark, and Norway.

If it is population density, then explain why in the USA that the states with the highest rates of covid infection are North Dakota and Alaska.  North Dakota has 48 people per sq mile, while Alaska only 1 person per square mile.  Washing DC with the highest density at 11,011 per square mile, and Maryland with 618 per square mile have the lowest rates of covid infection.  Or do your theories about population density only apply to Germanic countries and not US states. 


 

14 hours ago, chessman said:

You’re misinformed here. Florida changed the way that it counted positive tests so they’re counted from the day of the test, not the day of the positive result

https://www.flgov.com/2021/10/27/florida-reaches-lowest-case-rate-in-the-nation/

17 hours ago, placeholder said:

First off, it's obvous that you are evading the issue of vaccinations. Overwhelmingly what corresponds to death rates is vaccination levels. Why do you repeatedly avoid addressing this issue.

No you are obviously trying to deflect.  Explain to me why the Netherlands and Belgium which border Germany have significantly higher covid infection rates. 

The reality is that Sweden did the least in terms of covid protocols and its rate of infection is not markedly different than the majority of countries in the EU.  

Yes it is higher than Denmark, Norway and Finland but that is 'cherry picking"  

There is no more validity to the extrapolation that the lack of mask protocols in Sweden is the "reason" for them to be higher than it is valid to "assume" that because Stella Artois is the most popular beer in Belgium while the Germans drink Becks proves that Becks provides superior covid protection. 

14 hours ago, placeholder said:

Why are you comparing the Baltic States to Sweden?

Oh so because they are called Baltic instead of Scandinavian that is an important differentiation in the transmittal of Covid?  Talin Estonia is 82 Kilometers from Helsinki Finland.  Estonia followed the same EU protocols as Finalnd but has a rate of covid infection almost identical to Sweden that did nothing. 

Is the fact that the German areas of of Saarland and Rhineland-Palatinate are called "states" while Luxemburg is called a Dutchy the causal factor in why the rate in Luxemburg is 131,395 per million while Germany's who share a 138KM with Luxemburg has only a rate of 58,538.  

This nonsense of can only compare Sweden to other "Scandinavian" countries has no more credence than you can't compare Vermont with a rate of 69,746 per million versus bordering New York at 138,197 because Vermont is considered a " New England Region" while New York is a "North East Region" Population density?  Nope the highest covid rates per million in the USA include North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Alaska.  Tourism brings Covid?  Nope, Hawaii has the most tourists as a percent of its population and has the lowest rate of Covid of all the 50 states.   Age?  Nope Florida has the highest rate of retirees with 20.5% of its population retired yet it is currently the lowest rate of Covid infections of all 50 states.  Ethnicity and Weight.  Nope.  Washington DC has 43.9% of its population as black, and 49.6% of blacks in the USA are considered to be obese.  Yet Washington DC has the 5th lowest Covid infection rate in the USA and is the urban area with 11,686 people per square mile with the next highest being Maryland at 624 people per square mile. 

All we know for certain is that Sweden did little to nothing in the way of mask mandates, quarantines, shutting down restaurants, entertainment venues, curfews, etc. and the rate of covid infection in Sweden is lower than other countries like the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxemburg.  Those countries are geographically close to Germany which has one of the lowest rates of Covid infection in the EU.  

The evidence would seem to not be very conclusive that the imposition of identical covid protocols yielded identical results, nor that the absence of those protocols resulted in a demonstrable increase in covid infections.  If the lack of masks, quarantines etc was so irresponsible Sweden's rate of infection should be the highest in the EU it is not.  Out of 28 EU members 27 followed the EU restrictive measures only Sweden did not.  There are 10 countries with higher covid infection rates per million than Sweden.  The premise that not following the mask and quarantine measures is the reason that Sweden has a higher rate of covid than Norway, Denmark, and Finland is no more valid that the reason that Belgium, the Netherlands, Poland. and France have higher rates of infection than bordering Germany because the Germans drink more Beck's beer than those other countries. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries



 

1 minute ago, Scott said:

The final point is that viral infections such as Covid come and go in waves. 

The point was that Thailand was and still is instituting draconian measures to stem social gathering.  Public restaurants, bars, entertainment venues either closed or restricted.  Incoming tourists subjected to being tested before flying, must have approved vaccines, and tested again upon arrival plus put in quarantine until the test shows as negative. 

Then match that logic with sponsoring a music festivals drawing thousands of people.  Either social gathering is a problem or it is not.  Certainly I would sooner think my odds of contracting covid are significantly less at an open air restaurant or pub with only a small group of people.

In terms of vaccination rates I view that just as spurious as saying that Sweden's higher rate of covid infection is due solely to its lax measures.  You have neighboring countries such as Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia all with high rates of covid infection yet full EU protocols.  Vaccination rates in Washington DC are no higher than neighboring New Jersey, or New York and those two states have higher incidences of covid,  Moving north neighboring Maine and New Hampshire have near identical rates of covid vaccine coverage yet they have much lower covid infection rates than New York or New Jersey. 

It seems every time you try and isolate some causal factor that differentiates one region from another you find numerous exceptions to it.  Thailand is no different.  Within various provinces you have near identical rates of covid vaccine coverage and yet adjoining provinces have markedly different covid rates of infection. 

I do agree that covid goes in waves.  And the mysteries of why regions Germany have bordering countries such as the Netherlands and Belgium with extremely high rates, Poland with a high rate and equally close Denmark with a low rate.   It isn't population density, Washington DC proves its not population density, Florida's low rate goes against the theory of age, 

But the original post was about government hypocrisy where bars and restaurants are crippled in the name of covid prevention while the same government condones an event drawing thousands together. 

20 hours ago, shdmn said:

I believe it's a gov't mandated thing.  I didn't say you can't get it done, I just said it's a requirement.

Well if it is mandated, both Bangkok Bank opened an account for a friend of mine, and as said, I opened an account last year at SCB and in neither case was the subject of a residence certificate brought up.  Given that I have a drivers license which does require a residence certificate you would think that would suffice.  Anyway this idea that on the one hand the governments supposedly wants everyone to avoid unnecessary social contact and then with the next breath tell you that for no good reason to make multiple trips to immigration is another Thai Keystone cops routine. 

1 minute ago, Alotoftravel said:

With an O visa, even though insurance is not required like O/A.

It is my understanding that you are not required to have the $50,000 insurance for the 0 visa.  If however you travel outside of Thailand and return, you need the $50,000 insurance covered through the expiration date of your extension.
Upon expiration you could again extend the 0 visa with no insurance. 

So what the policy really does is it forces those on 0 visa's to have insurance if they travel outside of Thailand and return.