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onebir

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Posts posted by onebir

  1. 9 hours ago, sirineou said:

    but now I am concerned that J&J might not be one of the approved Vaccines.  

    If they rule out J&J's, it'll look pretty hypocritical to allow SinoVac's, which is (supposedly?) barely 50% effective (/efficacious?). That wouldn't go down well 'up North'.

    eg see this.

    So I'd be quite surprised if they ruled out J&J - too hard to explain to the US.

    • Like 1
  2. 6 hours ago, cmarshall said:

    We have a natural experiment in Scandinavia. 

    A natural experiment (in a few, rather similar countries) can support the notion that a factor is important in explaining a phenomenon, but can't prove that it is the sole factor driving differences between the natural 'treatment groups'*.

    Think before accusing other people of poor reasoning.

    For most of last year, Sweden was poster-country for inaction for certain political factions. How's that bit of cherry-picking extrapolation working out?

    *To spell it out for the hard of thinking: other causal factors may exist, both between the countries/regions involved and/or in other countries (or indeed across time; this pandemic has not been a synchronous event).

    Not understanding these other differences doesn't mean they don't exist. People who make that assumption should consider themselves ignorant.

     

  3. 19 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

    Why is it so hard to believe that the Western governments have been either grossly incompetent or criminally indifferent or both?  Sometimes the obvious explanation is the right one.

    Because the outcomes in different non-asian countries seem pretty inconsistent; there could be factors other than policy, at work. If you want to do a detailed comparison of

     

    22 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

    To say nothing of why the Thais, Japanese, Taiwanese, New Zealanders, and Australians would have developed any resistance to pathogens originating in Western China.

    Most of those countries are islands, making excluding potential covid carries rather easy. Is being an island a policy choice? (Northern) Thailand is within the bat species range (which if IIRC covered Burma, Vietnam, Laos and southern China, to within a few hundred km south of Wuhan).

    27 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

    But, the facts are even worse for your theory since we understand even in Western China human contacts with bat population are a recent phenomenon brought about by increasing areas of human activity in a zone that had been wild.

    Think about it: homo sapiens - genetically  modern humans - shared caves with bats. That's what "not that long ago in evolutionary time" means. (And in some parts of the region some humans were still living in caves not that long ago in historical time. eg google "Wa Zu".)

    I don't know how significant this particular non-policy factor is; my main point is there are could be many other significant non-policy factors that we simply haven't imagined. So don't jump to conclusions.

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