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MicroB

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Everything posted by MicroB

  1. Depends how old you are. I'm not old. Labour came back after wrecking by Militant Tendancy, and survived the Magic grandpa. I disagree that Parliamentary party are only "thick extremists". Most MPs are very capable individuals, not "thick", and history shows one does not have to be "thick" to be an extremist. A change to Party Leadership rules will sort things out (currently its the wrong way around, with the membership having the final say on the candidates. Shortlisting should be by the membership, back room deals by the Westminster membership). I'm not seeing a 3xGE election winner in Starmer; he doesn't have the charisma of Tony Blair. Tories will be back in by 2035. I'll still be of working age then. But whatever, Labour won't be reversing the policies announced yesterday. The policies might not get through a Parliamentary vote. Not sure if the government will try and make that a confidence vote.
  2. Income of sponsor (spouse in the UK). The government says its increased the limit to ensure that people can support themselves. While at the same time increasing the costs. 30,000 spousal applications generates about £60 million in Home Office fees. The Home Office has spent about £140m in payments to Rwanda, where it intends to transfer refugee applicants (all of them). When the scheme is up ang going, its estimated that the cost to the taxpayer is £170,000 per refugee, and an incalculable cost to Britain's reputation. About 80,000 asylum applications per year. This might decide for some spouses that some other government is deserving of their tax money than the UK and increase emigration rates.
  3. As a member of that "Nasty Party", I hope its an opportunity for the Centre to recapture it. Ironically, policies like this are designed to appeal to the "Red Wall"; people who vote labour.
  4. Define "UK indigenous folks". Born in the UK, or do you need to go back a few generations? IHS adds £1.7 billion a year to the NHS. If the policy is a complete success, then that money is taken out of the NHS. Dentist shortages are complex. Dentists are generally self employed businessmen. They can choose to take NHS patients or not. They don't work for the NHS. The UK Dental bodies, essentially professional Unions, blocked foreign dentists by increasing language requirements, creating a shortage of dentists, because, not enough people want to become dentists. Blame them for creating a shortage. Of course supply and demand means if there is a shortage, well, they can increase their fees. There is a contradiction of you alleging there is this huge body of illegal immigrants living under the wire, who need to be "found", but are milking the benefits system. Actually, they are probably not. They are part of the black economy, pay no tax, receive nothing in return. Their employers, likely British, are paying no tax, in illicit businesses. Burden on the NHS. The NHS sees about 500 million patients a year; thats the number of encounters. There are many many people who have multiple contacts with the NHS, mostly elderly, like my mother who has had 17 A&E admissions in 9 months. That translates into about 17 million episodes. About 25% of the population need to use the NHS. A lot of people can go for years without being ill. These aren't reforms just because the current government calls it that. These are policies designed to appeal to voters. I doubt they will achieve what you think they will achieve. People living rough on the streets and eating from food banks is nothing to do with Thai wives, though some might be doing that because of what you call reforms.
  5. The fee is waived/refunded if the person gets a job in the NHS. If the person gets another type job and pays National Insurance like everyone else, its not. But note, that exemption was only introduced during the COVID-19 Pandemic. I expect it to be rescinded. Coincidently, the average cost of private health insurance in the UK is £1,032 (some other estimates are a bit higher, a bit lower). Ministers argue that the immigration health surcharge (IHS) is a good deal for temporary immigrants when compared to private healthcare insurance. Arguably, Partners are not intending to be temporary migrants, but have to wait 10 years for their permanent status (ILR) to be confirmed. Does the government intend to refund permanent immigrants the money they had to pay because the government artificially designated them as temporary? Or is it a Conservative government that no longer believes in the "sanctity of marriage"? The latest available UK government statatistics indicate about 30,000 partner visas are granted each year. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-statistics-year-ending-september-2022/summary-of-latest-statistics The NHS surcharge fee would raise about £30m per year. A net contribution of 0.02% to the NHS budget. A few Thai wives will not make a jot of difference to your ability to get a GP appointment. The government says overall the IHS contributes £1.7 billion a year to the NHS. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7274/ But that is a pretty perverse way of looking at it. Visa fees and the IHS are increased not to reflect the true cost of processing a visa application (£2k to look at a form, where 86% of applications are granted. I work in jnfectious disease. If I had a test that was giving me 86% of samples were positive, I would be arguing there is no need for a test. We operate on the principle that 60% of samples are negative) but to disincentivise visa applications, to reduce immigration. A minister boasting that the IHS raises £1.7 billion is actually arguing that his government's policies are intended to take £1.7 billion out of the NHS each year. Or maybe he believes the policies will never work, but they might be enough for him to keep his seat, because he can fool people into believing this will enable them to see a GP more quickly. The £2k fees are said to fund Border Force. I am a lifelong conservative and a party member. I will not be voting for this shower at the next election (not just because of this). My local MP is Tory, and a decent chap, but its nothing personal, and I know he always has the famly firm to fall back on. The question is do I transfer my vote to someone yellow or red, or not at all. The Reform party can go and spin.
  6. Most who take out annual multi-trip travel insurance don't realise it only provides 30 days cover per country visit.
  7. Which bank is giving 7% on a single £18.8k deposit? Regular Savers Accounts give this sort of rate, but the maximium deposit is capped at around £3000-4000 per year. And most of these accounts require you to open a current account with them. So it will get complicated if you have 4-5 different banks. Plus those current accounts will have monthly charges and deposit requirements. You can go to a Fixed Rate Account and earn 6% on money with 12 month access. I think these rates have peaked, and will go down. Easy access accounts are giving around 5%, but again, I think these will drop. When, who knows. A more realistic current rate now is about 5.5%, 44,000 earned on the mythical 800,000 deposit, but with quite restrictive access to that money. UK savings rates will likely fall to 2-3%, end of 2024 maybe, but more probably 2025 (depending on the forecasting bank). Where will Thai savings rates be then? The UK is currently somewhere near the peak, the Thai rate somewhere near the bottom (6 month deposit rate about 1%). Potentially in 24 months the differential will be very close.
  8. I used this: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100040674731418 Never had to lift a finger. Just sat at bangkok noi office lobby, signing bits of paper as needed.
  9. This might help some people facing financial difficulties https://www.jcwi.org.uk/what-to-do-if-you-cant-afford-to-apply-for-your-first-visa Doesn't help me though....
  10. Ah, "New Conservatives" (an amalgm of the unfortunately named National Conservatives (Nat-Cs) and some other groups of Red Wallers).
  11. Lets not forget said visa applicants are often also required, at their own expense, to undergo medical examination to ensure they are not a burden to the NHS that they are paying for. Or if working, probably paying twice over and subsidising treatment of others.
  12. Health Service Charge is annual fee to access NHS; its paid in advance, and is refundable if the visa application is unsuccessful. So a 2.5 year visa required 2.5 years worth of charges in advance. Those migrants gaining employment in the NHS get the fee reimbursed. A week ago, the Home Secretary proposed raising the fee to £2000 per year. Its effectively a tax. You cannot opt out and decide to pay for private health insurance instead (private healthcare insurance is on average £1500 per year). Potentially, a Briton could attend 6th Form, get a NI credit, no NI credit for graduate and postgraduate study, then fall ill with a chronic condition. They would, rightfully, be able to access the NHS and potentially Continuing Healthcare services, completely free of charge, irrespective of NI "stamps". Similarly, a Briton could go to college, maybe even a non-UK college, get a nice job in the Middle East or Asia, and then, maybe at the end of a 40-50 year, possibly tax free, career, invest in property in the old country (and many do), and from the moment they step off the plane at Heathrow, have 100% access to the NHS for all of their healthcare needs (dependant on NICE and MHRA decisions). Potentially without spending a single penny of their earnings on National Insurance. Because access if based on where you live, not how rich/poor you are, or the colour of your passport. In the year to June 2022, 25,893 Partner visas were granted, which seems to be 30-35% down on the number granted in 2019. So the costs for a 2.5 year Partner visa is around £4300, paid up front, somehow. I wonder if they take Visa. Repeat, inflation/election adjusted 2.5 years later. ~£111 million contribution to the re-election fund each year. The £26m raised per year for the NHS equates to 0.014% of the annual budget. Looking to see how many 2 hours per week cleaning jobs there are in UK care homes etc.
  13. It can't be done in a day now. The MFA apparently no longer does an express service. They need 3 working days, which makes things a bit tight to get done in the same period, considering the Embassy only takes appointments on Tuesdays and Thursdays. And the MFA shuts for the day at 3pm, and obviously closed at weekends. So, with a morning Tuesday appointment at the Embassy, getting the paperwork to the agency for translation and notorisation, then having it couriered to the MFA before 3pm, I might just about be able to get married the following Monday afternoon.
  14. The affirmation of marriage application says you need to provide the name of the Amphur and date. I'm using an agency to do all the translation and legwork to the MFO, plus sort out a booking at the Amphur. So I don't have an actual date (beyond the date I'd want it to happen). Does it have to be the exact date?
  15. For: https://www.book-consular-appointment.service.gov.uk/TimeSelection?location=53&service=35 1. How far in advance are new appointment dates released? 2. Are appointments actually only every available on Tuesdays and Thursdays? 3. Why does Firefox show currently zero slots for all dates, but Edge shows quite good availability Needed for attestation of marriage, but not sure whether to book my ticket now for September direct with the airline, that is fully rebookable, or take a chance with Kayak etc and book a more restricted ticket. There is about a £400 difference from the UK.
  16. UK government considering extending residence requirement in UK for Indefinite Leave to Remain from 5 years to 8 years. Caveat its the Daily Mail; https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12156381/Foreigners-wait-longer-British-citizens.html So for Partner visa, @2.5 years per visa, that will mean 1 x visa application fee (£1577), 3x visa renewal fees (3x £1033), 8x NHS surcharge (8x£624) plus ILR fee (£2,404) (12,072) rather than current 1 x visa application fee (£1577), 1x visa renewal fees (1x £1033), 5x NHS surcharge (5x£624) plus ILR fee (£2,404) (£8,134). Seems like a money making exercise.
  17. For those interested, anyone with a Thai passport with such a stamp in is blocked from applying for a new one until any blacklisting has expired.
  18. For a Partner Visa, I have £1500+ to lose (non-refundable). Immigration Rules Appendix FM S-EC.1.4.(c) make it clear: Though common sense suggests there is a difference between a beak handing down 1 year versus 4 weeks because they didn't have the money to pay the fine. But anyhow, a good Malaysian friend (consultant Surgeon in the UK) who had a particularly nasty run in with the HMG (threatened with deportation because he asked permission to attend a wedding in KL. Cost him £5k in lawyer fees to stay in the UK, missing the wedding of course, due to the arbitrary nature of a nameless official), is looking into the Malaysian codes I have to confirm what was the actual offence. I suspect there is no leeway, hence the manual, but time is a probable solution. Her current passport in in her previous married name, which being Thailand means she had a first name chosen by her ex-husband, because he didn't like her given name. Her ID card is in her maiden name and new given name. So she needs a new passport. She thought she would have to wait for her current one to expire before getting a new one, which isn't the case. She just has to apply for a new one and the current one is canceled.
  19. I have now read S-EC.1.4(c), and well understand it now. Wait until December 11 2024, unless Appendix FM is revised. Hopefully PM Starmer by then. Not that I would normally vote for his party. Present HS has a screw loose and looks to low hanging fruit to get herself out of trouble.
  20. So I suspect the large number of members of this forum who have confessed to overstaying in Thailand are basically criminals for life, and should be denied visas for any other country. In addition, their obvious untrustworthiness would mean they should be banned from certain positions or coming into contact with the vulnerable. This seems consitant with your point. Malaysia began a draconian policy some years back, replacing the previous overstay fine system with mandatory jail time. Another Guesser. Blocked based on off topic worthless replies.
  21. My Thai fiance has an irregular travel history, from before I knew her, and while I have no intention of witholding information if asked, I am unsure if it will affect the success of an application for UK Holiday or Partner Visa. In September 2019, she traveled to Malaysia for work, with friends, via an "agency", to whom she paid 7000 Baht for "insurance". She worked in massage. Previously, she was an electronics engineer with a Japanese firm in Bangkok for 13 years until divorcing her husband (who was also her manager). As she puts it, on her first day at work she did one foot massage, then went shopping at the local market before being picked up by the Malaysian Police (I assume there are regular raids in the area). She was 3 days in a holding cell, before being bailed. She is unclear who paid the bail, but I suppose it was the shop, who kept her passport for surity. I think once being bailed, she could have simply checked out of Malaysia, and that would be that. But she had no passport and dutifuly reported to the police station on a regular basis, until the Malaysians suddenly rearrested her and her friends, and threw her in a pretty miserable sounding prison (15 to a cell, sleeping on the floor, a bit of rice and some disgusting rotted fish to eat. Eventually her court date came around, a few days after the 30 days she had been originally permitted to stay in Malaysia (so essentially about 1 month on remand). The Court process was in English, which she didn't understand, and she had no representation. The result was another month in prison, deportation and a 5 year black listing (until December 2024). The stamps and scribbles in her passport, as much as I can determine, relate to an overstay offence. Googling, it seems there are many students, interns, who got the same stamp and were thrown out. The whole experience seemed to have shocked her; in prison, there were many different nationalities. A lot of underage Vietnamese girls, but also hardened Malaysian criminals who seemed to have no problems getting extras into the prison. I understand, for the UK, all travel history for the last 10 years has to be provided, along with any convictions. As related, are these events likely to have a significant impact on the outcome of a visa application, or unlikely to merit much concern?
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