IsaanT

Trump reserved some of his highest tarriffs for SE Asian countries. I've just been looking at the SET50 (Thailand's equivalent of the S&P500 or FTSE100): The SET50 itself was down 3.57% today but there were some exceptional standouts: - Xiaomi (phones, household products, now cars) fell 20.59% today. - PTT Global Chemical fell 11.24% today. Elsewhere in SE Asia: The Hang Seng (Hong Kong) is down 13.22% today. The Nikkei 225 (Japan) is down 7.73% today. The Singapore stock market is down 7.46% Our immediate problems may be closer to home.

You comment about what others do or say but how do you trade? What are your methods?

Darvas box theory is not something I use (I hadn't even heard of it until you mentioned it) and I see no point investigating a potential new tool for my box when I have several tried and trusted methods already available to me. The evidence is on the screen above. If it works for you, that's good. p.s. I just googled DBT. If the stop is at the bottom/top of the box, that's way too wide to make any serious money. The theory is understandable but the chance of making consistent money with it... Well, tell us how you're doing with it.

Yes, in an up market trend. Now apply the same logic to a down market trend. What would it look like? Do remember that trends, once started, persist for some time. And trends and corrections are two completely different things, i.e. you can have a correction in an ongoing uptrend, and vice versa. It could be argued (please don't) that we've been in an bullish uptrend, with corrections, since at least 2009.

I appreciate your openness. Statistically, most retail traders will lose money (IG Index states 71% do on its own website, and they would know). I'm assuming you're trading (gambling - your words) with money you can afford to lose, as any trader should. I'm trying to provide some enlightenment here for those who can't see what I see. I hope that nobody here loses any money (or can contain any losses before it gets out of control).

OK, let's look at the evidence. A stochastics indicator is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis to show where the current closing price of a stock is relative to its price range over a specific period. In short, it tells you if a stock is overbought or oversold. Here's a breakdown: It oscillates between 0 and 100. High readings (typically above 70 or 80) suggest the stock might be overbought and could be due for a pullback or consolidation Low readings (typically below 20 or 30) suggest the stock might be oversold and could be due for a bounce Traders often use stochastics to identify potential turning points in a stock's price action and to look for divergences (where the indicator moves in the opposite direction of the price), which can signal a weakening trend. I like divergences very much - see the chart below for the divergence at the end of November's bar (arrowed); similar divergences can be seen across the chart prior to drops. It works for rises, too. However, when there is a strong trend, the trend will override most indicators. In a strong down market, it will bump along the bottom (or, conversely, the top in a strong up market, as can be seen in the chart). On the monthly scale, it hasn't even reached the bottom yet so, if the trend is going to continue it's got plenty of scope to go yet. The evidence has been there all along if you look in the right places. p.s. I don't use the default Stochastic parameters. I use %K of 13, %D of 2, a slowing factor of 2 and I use overbought/oversold of 90 and 10, respectively, as shown on this chart.

The market is, indeed, always right. However, my 'guesses' are specifc, and made before the event. And I haven't been proved wrong yet whereas your accuracy prediction score is suffering a deficit recently.

Are we in agreement for once? 😉

I agree that the magnitude of change for Trump is bigger. Putin was betting that nothing would change for his exports but lost spectacularly. Similarly, I think Trump will also suffer the error of his judgement spectacularly but the scale of his errors will cause long-standing suffering and hardship to billions - directly or indirectly - and will take a very long time to be corrected.

For perspective... This the Dow Futures. Each bar is one month. The chart goes back to 2005 on the left-hand side; the last bar is this month, April 2025. In case the penny hasn't dropped, it's the 7th day of this current month, so we're only one week in - another 23 days to go. Now, a quiz. @Cameroni, @Yagoda, @Harrisfan: what does the stochastic indicator underneath the chart tell you? @Yagoda, you are allowed to consult with your 'stocks dude' before replying.

If you had asked Putin in the spring of 2022 if he anticipated that Russia would lose almost all gas sales to Europe as a result of his 'special military operation', do you think he would have agreed? Oil exports have been similarly affected. For the full year of 2024, Gazprom reported a net loss of 1.076 trillion rubles (approximately $12.89 billion USD) under Russian Accounting Standards (RAS). That must be hard coming from a country so reliant on gas and oil exports. Russia's precedent has shown that economic order on a massive scale can change, and shows every sign of being permanent.

If @Walker88 wrote a thick book, I'd read it. I can listen to people who know what they're talking about all day long.

We concur - I did put 'investors' in quotes behind the word Bitcoin. At least the US Dollar is apparently backed by the gold in Fort Knox (have they done a recent stocktake, as was suggested recently?). BTW, if anyone can explain to me how Bitcoin might one day become a serious form of currency for global trading (rather than a novelty way of paying for a Tesla), I'd like to hear the evidence... Bitcoin (and all the other blockchain-based cryptocurrencies) are yet another Dutch Tulip Bubble (1636) or South Sea Bubble (1720), IMHO. There are many lessons of irrational and exhuberant excess in history but some people only look to the future, not the past.

That's like saying it's safe to pull out of a town junction in front of an oncoming speeding car because the average car does about 30kph in town. What if I'm right and we're in for a very long depression? I assume your statement doesn't form any part of your investment strategy or trading rules. If not, why say it? Think about what you're saying before you press the 'Submit' button. You can do better.

What's the rationale behind your prediction (just so those with hope can feel validated)? BTW, for someone who has been arguing that the bull run isn't over, you're now creating ever lower predictions for the market (support at 37,000; support at 30,000-35,000; now bear market over by July-Oct). I'm unclear whether you are long, short or just an uncommitted bystander lobbing bricks in the pond for fun?

The Democrats moved Biden to one side to allow Kamala a shot when Biden's position became intolerable so it's not entirely without recent precedent.

With respect, I disagree. Many will be caught with their pants down (Bitcoin 'investors' are probably near the front of the queue; meme coin holders even closer...). Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway investment company had a $334 billion cash pile at the end of last year. If the markets are so profitable, why wasn't he trading them? He's 94 and he's seen plenty of frothy markets in his time. The writing is on the wall for those that can see it. However, some people are not old enough, experienced enough or have short memories and think the good times will just continue for the foreseeable future, and are greedily invested accordingly.

Sunday's futures closed at 36,850. You decide (it's a 50/50 right now but I'd put my money on the trend). The above chart illustrates two things: a) evidence of gap closure b) why you shouldn't interpret anything I said as trading advice Firstly, you should be able to see a gap created about a third of the way across from the left. The futures markets are continuous (24hrs) during the trading week but do close on Friday night until Sunday evenings. Thus, gaps can only form on a Sunday night. This gap occurred on the Dow Futures on 13th June 2022. However, you will see that the market continued down further for another five days before it went up and closed the gap on the 11th day, so closure isn't necessarily immediate but does occur relatively quickly. As another example the gap on 28th August 2022 was closed the next day. Scan any futures chart for more examples.

The Dow futures opened last night at 37,250 and went as low as 36,499. That's your first support level breached. However, as I suggested last week, the markets are very likely to rise this week, albeit slightly. I had other reasons for stating it last week but do you see the gap in the chart between Friday night's close and last night's open? The markets, like nature, abhor a vacuum so this gap MUST be closed before the trend down can be resumed. To be even more specific, the Futures opened considerably lower than Friday night's close - this shows the market's underlying sentiment (remember, sentiment is what drives markets). The gap created, however, must be closed so the Futures chart must rise to at least 38,219 (Friday's close) to close the gap (it might rise slightly higher but doesn't need to for gap-filling purposes). Shortly afterwards, the downtrend will resume because that's what the sentiment is showing us (and for so many other reasons, but they are beyond the scope of this thread). N.B. This is not an indication to trade - markets are volatile and yu risk losing your shirt, blah, blah. Regard it as a simple lesson.

That is, indeed, the crux of this issue - anonymity. The popular phrase for such people is keyboard warriors. I have no reason to hide my identity and it would be a sad day for me if I did.

Some threads here can get confrontational, highly-charged and, sometimes, rude and insulting (I'm looking at you, @Don Giovanni). I speak to people on this forum the same way I would if we were face to face. There's nothing wrong with robust debate but it would be good if we could all keep it civilised.

1. Vance was elected to the Senate in 2022 in Ohio - he wasn't elected to be VP. He was hand-picked by Trump, along with all of Trump's other hand-picked top team member's, very few of which have any relevant experience or credentials for the roles they now hold. It is disgraceful for a VP to openly attack a visiting sovereign President of another country, especially on live TV. I'm not the only one to think this, hence the demonstrations when Vance attempted to have a quiet skiing holiday with his family shortly after. To provide a balance, Vance does appear to be a thinker and appears to have the capability to be responsible and presentable but, without trying to be sarcastic, he's not exploiting much of that potential at this time. Having to be a 'yes' man/woman to Trump is a constraint for all of Trump's top team so they are all operating under artificial circumstances. Will Vance run for the top job after Trump finally hangs up his hat? Very possibly, so he remains on my radar. 2. I don't hate Trump - I just disagree with many (but not all) of his policies. I also think he's been badly advised. I won't add value by commenting about Trump's personality traits which make him ill-suited for the role of the most powerful and consequential person on the planet - plenty of others already do that. My position is easier because I am English, not American, so I don't feel any need to take sides in US politics but I do recognise that his actions are having international repercussions that include my family and friends in the UK. 3. I don't believe I've ever watched MSM (again, I'm not American). 3. Ukraine's constitution prevents elections during times of war, so Zelenskyy's term has simply been extended because of the circumstances. And I think he's doing a fine job. Finally, I hope the biggest loser in all of this is Putin (Russia itself can continue on without him, hopefully in a less aggressive way). The Soviet Union portrayed itself as a superpower but perhaps were only giving the impression of being so. Russia has spent three years of full-on assault attacking Ukraine and claims five Ukrainian regions, many of which are not yet under its full control (the five regions total about 65,000 square miles - that's about the same size as Florida or Wisconsin, and a quarter the size of Texas. Not very impressive.). Russia used to have a good arms export market but, given the recent demonstration, I expect international buyers are looking elsewhere now (it also used to have a strong gas and oil export business but that's another story of self-imposed destruction...).

I started with £20K and came out with around £120K in tangible assets (cars, an aeroplane, other things) eight months later but, yes, I lost £210K (on paper) but I didn't lose my shirt. I feel it was a win. 😉 In a rising market (as that was), isn't it BLASH (buy low and sell high) which was my preferred approach? Although BHASL via shorting the indicies would have worked handsomely last week.

Really? Those that know will understand why it would be pointless to continue this discussion. This is a forum for expats, expat-wannabees and expat-havebeens to discuss things related to Thailand. This thread has gone way too far off track. Let's agree to disagree please.

The textbooks typically use simplistic chart patterns, chosen for their clarity. This is the real world.