nigelforbes

Foreigners are repatriating assets from the SET and the Thai bond market because the Fed has indicated that the Fed Funds rate will be higher for longer. That's business as usual and is little more than hot money cash flows as investors chase yield in USD rather than THB. That said, the Baht is flavor of the year amongst investors globally so the impact is likely to be minimal. Household debt is not a component of GDP and it is on the decline. It is too high but in the short term it has a positive impact on the economy. as people spend what was borrowed. Do not confuse Consumer Debt with the Thai economy, they are different things.

I'm not sure about that. I think it's sometimes helpful, I think, to understand where your own position is relative to the population.

Cash is a liquid asset.

The Fed Chair has told Congress that interest rates could go higher for longer and potentially climb more rapidly, the chances of a half point increase rose to 64% as a result and the Pound fell to USD 1.18. A Fed Funds terminal rate of 6% by the Autumn is not unthinkable any longer and is actually probable, worsening the chances of a US recession that will impact Asia. The good news for those with USD income is that USD/THB is now over 35, the less good news is that GBP/THB will weaken. This is unlikely to affect export levels but it’s better news for tourists. The even worse news is that equity markets will/are taking the news badly, the herd may have got ahead of itself by ignoring the Fed. Warnings previously. The future of the Baht seems to hang on export levels during the next couple of months.

I think the headline is nothing more than an attention grab, as another posters wrote, it's a numbers game. The state of those bank accounts doesn't mean much since most Thai's own multiple bank accounts and many if not most still operate on a cash basis. The Consumer Debt problem is a worry and I see that BOT has a program underway to try and tackle the problem. It reminds me very much of living in Detroit in the early 1970's when the Projects were all poor blacks, they didn't have curtains on the windows but they all had brand new Caddies or Lincolns outside, all on finance and all due to be repossessed inside 6 months. It was great for the car industry, great for the economy but socially it was a disaster. Those people, like many rural Thai's today, were limited in the scope and potential of their earnings. The same problem but a different slant on things.

Thanks. Did you have a point you wanted to make?

OK got it! Unicef donated 12 million dollars of Unilever soap and hand sanitizer products. The US allocated 2 million US as part of its overseas development aid budget. Oishi, a Thai company, gave 12 million o the Red Cross. Overseas aid during covid was virtually non-existent, neither requested nor needed. BTW, I thought I was on your ignore list as of yesterday.

Er, what percentage of 444 billion does that come to, please? And er, can we see some links to prove what you claim, please?

Just for comparison purposes: "According to a survey by the Money and Pensions Service (MaPs), around a quarter of UK adults (11.5 million people) have less than £100 in their savings account, with one in six people having no savings at all". https://www.money.co.uk/savings-accounts/savings-statistics#:~:text=Overview%3A UK savings statistics 2023,1000%2C in a savings account. 78% of Americans have a savings account Most Americans (22%) have $1,000 to $5,000 in savings 51% of Americans have $5,000 or less in savings, while 35% have $1,000 or less https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/research/average-savings-account-balance/

No money was donated, some vaccine was donated by the US and China, this is bacause demand outstripped supply which was primarily based in the West. Private hospitals, not government hospitals, did acquire vaccine and sell it to the public, this is because they bought and paid for its importation, that's because they are private business.

....and Pfizer, and Moderna, I received them both for free. And, "The social security system will pay unemployed workers up to 50% of their wages for up to six months. For labourers and workers who are not covered by social security, 45 billion baht has been earmarked for cash handouts" .The state-owned Government Savings Bank has allocated up to 30 billion baht to provide low interest loans for individuals. "The Government Savings Bank will also loan a total of 150 billion baht to various financial institutions at an interest rate of 0.01% per annum. These institutions will then provide businesses with low-interest loans – 2% on the first 20 million baht, for the first two years". and "the Social Security Office and financial institutions will offer low-interest loans to employers who are registered with the Social Security Office and have contributed to the Social Security Fund for at least three months. These loans can total up to 30 million baht and will have an interest rate starting at 3% per annum. Upon receiving the loan, employers must retain insured employees for at least three years". And, plus plus plus https://www.grantthornton.co.th/insights/articles/thai-governments-economic-response-to-covid-19/

The answer is largely subjective. There seem to be posters in this thread who believe that every baht was wasted, others will think it was all mostly necessary. Whenever you have a government operation on the scale of covid, there's bound to be some wastage, no matter which country you're talking about. Personally, I think most of it was spent with good intent, I'd rather the government spends more in that situation than too little, that really would be criminal.

Foreigners come to Thailand and expect all numbers on every subject to be manipulated by government, the value of the baht, the number of tourists, the number of covid deaths, dear God, is there no end to it all! Have you ever stopped to think that perhaps some posters are married to or have partners who work in the medical system and news of falsified numbers would seep out? Have you ever stopped to wonder why those of us that use the medical system had no problems during covid, seeing doctors, obtaining medical assistance, getting hospital beds? Is that because the numbers had been manipulated and really the medical system was overwhelmed with cases, or was it because there was in fact very few to begin with! All rhetorical questions of course, just for you to ponder.

I'm so sorry for your loss, she was still quite young.

The estimate for UK spending on covid was 400 BILLION POUNDS. Given that Thailand has a similarly sized population, why do you think THB 444 billion BAHT is not possible?

Baroness Mone did quite well too, seems she had to take a leave of absence from the Lords as a result.

I want to try and improve the general understanding of what GDP is and is not. Mostly, the terminology that is used because the media uses words interchangeably and out of context. GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product. It is the final value of all goods and services, produced within a country, within a given time-frame, typically one year. All the countries financial transactions are contained within GDP, nothing is outside, everything in a country’s economy is included. This is what Thailand’s GDP looks like when it’s broken down by sector, which is one of the easiest and most understandable ways to display its composition. https://www.statista.com/statistics/331893/share-of-economic-sectors-in-the-gdp-in-thailand/#:~:text=This%20statistic%20shows%20the%20share,sector%20contributed%20about%2056.69%20percent. Each sector produces Goods or Services or both, each sector also imports and exports Goods and Services. Goods are products, items or substances that are manufactured or altered and made available for sale. Services are often intangibles that cannot always be seen but have value. Services contain a myriad of things that people do and sell, this includes value added activity in wholesale, retail trade, financial and professional services, education, travel, health care and real estate and more. Exports are things that are paid for using money from overseas that is brought into the country and where something is taken out of the country in return. Imports are the opposite, money from inside Thailand is paid overseas and something of value is brought back in return. International Tourism is a Thai export because the holiday in Thailand is paid for using money that comes from overseas and afterwards, the holiday experience is taken back out of the country. Thai’s who holiday abroad are engaged in imports for the opposite reason, as are fees paid for overseas education. GDP represents everything in the economy that was (Purchased). sold (Expenditure) or produced (Produced). GDP can be measured in various ways by counting either the sum of all sales, all purchases or all production. Many countries, including Thailand, use a combination of counting methods to more accurately measure the various components. This is not unusual because it makes the results more reliable. For example, it’s more accurate in some parts of the economy to measure what people bought (purchased) rather than how much they were paid (expenditure). This is because people cannot always be relied on to report income fully and completely! So there we have the “where”, the “what” and the “how”, next is the “who”. Business or Industry produces products (Goods) and sells them in Thailand, plus it exports them overseas. In order to make products, components or materials (Goods) must often must be imported first. Some products are imported partially made and then finished before being exported. This is known as value added products which involve importing, production and exporting. Consumers or House Holds buy products and use them, this is known as Consumer/House Hold consumption. But first, consumers have to pay for those products which is considered to be Consumer Expenditure. Government also spends money which is Government Expenditure. Consumers also import Services, for example, they buy goods from overseas, go on holiday overseas or send their children to school overseas. Keywords How - Bought, Sold, Produced. Where - Agriculture, Industry, Services. What - Products, Services. Who - Consumer, Industry, Government. There is a another layer of GDP that involves investment, both private and government. I’ll leave this for a future post so as to minimise complexity. A Simple Example of How Money is Allocated A foreign tourist arrives in Thailand on holiday and begins to spend money, which is classified within GDP as an Export of Tourist Services. The money that tourist spends is income for businesses large and small, including the hotel, restaurant and travel industries. Ultimately, the money ends up in the hands of Thai consumers who in turn will spend that money in order to live. Consequently, consumer consumption and expenditure increase. The more tourists there are, the more Consumer Expenditure will benefit. From a GDP perspective, revenue earned from the tourist has increased exports, increased consumer consumption and increased consumer expenditure. Another Example Let’s say the Thai consumer needs to borrow money. That borrowing is reflected in GDP, not as a consumer loan but as increased income by the financial institutions that made the loan. The value of the loan will be reflected in the total of all consumer loans which will then be compared to GDP as a percentage. But this type of private lending is not a part of the consumer side of GDP. And a Third Thai parents send their children to school overseas, which is regarded as an import of educational Services. Foreign tourists visit Thailand and this is an export of tourism Services. A factory sells boxes of widgets to the UK, which is an export of Goods. The local supermarket buys tins of baked beans from the USA which is regarded as the import of Goods. The sum total of all imports and exports are netted and produce the Net Exports figure that is important to the value of GDP and also displays the balance of trade. It helps to think of GDP as a massive pool of accounting data that can be rearranged at will, and when viewed from different angles, produces all manner of statistical information. When GDP is compiled using the expenditure method, the formulae for it is as follows: GDP = Business & Investment + Households & Investment + Government + Net Exports. The following link is from NESDC and explains 4Q22 GDP and forecasts 2023, the tables in the document may help some better understand what I’ve written above. https://www.nesdc.go.th/nesdb_en/article_attach/65Q4%20Press%20Eng%20Q4-2022%20(2102%2015.46).pdf

There is unlikely to be any rubles since most trade export bills are concluded in USD. In the case of China, a currency swap is in place which negates the need for any direct payment. https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/foreign-exchange-reserves

Here also is the IMF's 2017 report on Consumer Debt (Chapter 2) where it states that there is a short term gain to economic improvement as a result of higher than normal consumer debt. (don't worry, nothing has changed on this score since 2017). The trade off is in the medium term when the risks to economic growth and financial stability enter the picture, potentially. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2017/09/27/global-financial-stability-report-october-2017

For anyone else that's interested, here's what the 10 year consumer debt chart looks like, below. What you can see is that pre-covid, the debt ratio was sub 70% of GDP. As covid took hold and GDP shrank, the ratio increased, since 2021 and GDP has started to increase, it's on a downward trend (not fast enough, I know). https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/households-debt-to-gdp

Debt Drags Down The Economy Stop it Ryan, you're coming across as very silly by quoting things you don't understand, just to try and appear that you do. I'll leave you to it.

You almost certainly know lots of really useful things about lots of seriously interesting subjects but you just don't have a good grounding in economics. I'm sorry but you just don't understand much of this at all and it's becoming pointless to try and help you with try and understand it because you will neither read nor listen. You keep posting things that either aren't relevant or not connected to the issue. Your quotes above say nothing apart from consumer debt is too high and is a concern, so? We all know that but it has nothing to do with GDP growth and exports. Sure there's been a sharp increase, I posted the 10 year graph above so you could see that!!! Sure, Household debt is too high, sure, there's lots of negative social impact and sure, using GDP as a gauge to measure consumer debt is accepted practice. So what! Household debt doesn't impact the future GDP growth scenario I painted earlier, the one I asked you to describe but you either couldn't/wouldn't. And household debt doesn't impact exports, international tourism, services, investment or FDI.....those are the things that impact GDP growth. If Thailand was a consumer led economy I might have a different view, it doesn't, Thailand's economy is 70% exports and consumer debt isn't part of that picture or any other part of the GDP picture. I'm sorry Ryan but I can't keep responding to these posts because you clearly don't understand the subject matter, you might be getting something out of this but for me it's become painful and a waste of time. I'm not going to respond further to your posts, it would be helpful; if you stopped following me around and do the same. Thanks.

We've just returned from visiting several places in the South, we found hotel prices to be far higher than anything we've ever seen here before. Some are starting to approach levels that only the top 5% of Thai's will be able to afford, there's a disconnect between pricing and how much the average Thai can afford. Most western tourists will see it differently I imagine but they probably wont have a local benchmark to compare against plus they wont understand historic pricing.

Household or Consumer Debt has nothing to do with the construct or measurement of GDP! Household or Consumer Debt is a number that is calculated and expressed as a percentage of GDP but it has nothing to do with the construct or composition of GDP. If GDP increases and the debt level remains the same, the percentage of debt to GDP will fall. If GDP falls, which it has, and consumer debt levels remain the same, the percentage will increase. This is why I said earlier that Consumer Debt is a mathematical formula. What ever happens to Consumer debt will have no bearing on the level, measurement or reporting of GDP in Thailand. Consumer debt is neither a Product or Goods, Service, nor a factor in net exports, nor an Investment. Consumer Debt is compared to GDP and expressed as a percentage, solely for the purpose of international comparison, just in the same way that Defense Spending is expressed as a percentage of GDP. Those things said, it is feasible that extreme levels of Consumer Debt could negatively impact Consumer Expenditure, which IS a component of GDP. Historically however this has not been the case. The troughs in the graph below result from business closure during covid, the 10 year graph shows a consistent upwards trend, despite dent levels still being high. https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/consumer-spending