nigelforbes

I completely agree, the Baht is on the end of a piece of string that is being, no pun intended, yanked up and down by erratic Dollar value, which makes it even more bizarre that the Fed labels Thailand as a currency manipulator! That is of course not a currency issue, it is almost exclusively a trade issue which has currency implications downstream. If you look at how the US DI is constructed and how it ends up with a rating of 102% (or whatever it is at the time), it's because that is the sum total of its trade weighted component currencies, GBP, EUR, JPY etc. The US DI soared to 115% because markets expected the Fed to do something but they didn't know what. Now that they know the limitations of what the Fed will do, ie a terminal rate of 5.5%, the DI has returned to its baseline value. So this reversion to the norm is not so much about the actions of the Fed but of markets reactions to what the Fed MIGHT do. The response to those things was that funds flowed out of the key currencies and into USD, now that the DI is back to normal they are flowing out once again....hence to 32 to 38 and back to 32. Lastly the debt ceiling. I'm pretty sure that history will repeat, parts of government will close and subsequently the increase will be approved. I think the impact will be to send USD below 100, which is where it has been for all of the past 20 years, baring this recent hiccup when it went to 115. The net effect of THB? Dollar getting weaker, Baht getting stronger, BOT trying to weaken it, the Fed complaining about Thailand's manipulation....business as usual...is my guess.

Yes I agree. It's pure folly of course to try and predict short term interest rates but trying to establish direction. based on sound reasoning, is worth some effort. I said in a separate thread that I thought another poster was correct when he said he could see that Pound/Baht would reach 30 within ten years. That to me is not predicting exchange rates, that's about establishing trend and direction which is a different game entirely.

A good point about interest rates that I hadn't considered, it was not easy to know where to draw the boundaries on this. Plus I don't really have a view on interest rates, I suspect that's just as thorny as exchange rates although probably not as emotive.

Yes, but there are guesses and then there are informed projections based on fact, there's a difference, even if both are equally wrong.

You missed the point, the thread is not about what the rate might be, it's about the underlying factors are that contribute to whatever it might be.

Yup, it's an import/export thing. If imports were increased and they stop using Dollars as payments for exports, that will change.

I could only guess at this, just as others can. You would need to look at each of the component currencies to try and see where they are headed. Market forecasts are unanimous that THB will have a good year. Markets are also clear that Sterling is having problems. It appears the USD is flat but earnings season is underway and growth forecasts will probably fall. So, Baht up, Pound down, USD flat or down, that's my guess for the next two quarters. Note: I would avoid paying serious regard to exchange rate forecast sites, there's one that forecasts about five years which is nothing more than an extrapolation of the current view and doesn't tell us anything sensible.

It has been nicknamed “Teflon Thailand” - an economy seemingly impervious to any lasting effects from regular spasms of violent political unrest. https://www.cnbc.com/2014/01/09/as-bangkok-shutdown-looms-thailands-teflon-economy-put-to-the-test.html#:~:text=It has been nicknamed “Teflon,spasms of violent political unrest. Yes, even in 2014 when there was a lot of political problems, mostly manifesting themselves in Bangkok, exporters in the rest of the country continued to export and tourists in the South and the North, continued to be tourists. None of which impacted the economy negatively because political unrest here is not a factor that impacts THB value on a lasting basis.

Because there has been a lot of discussion in various threads about Thai Baht exchange rates lately, I thought it might be helpful to try to contain the debates in a single thread going forward. That way, posters don’t have to go searching for relevant connected information and everything is in one place. The purpose of this thread is to put the value of THB exchange rates into context, including the way they are formed and the economic factors that underpin them. I think the objective of the thread is to help educate and inform, by doing that, posters can better understand the exchange rate mechanism and improve their decision making about when to exchange currency. The thread will also, hopefully, provide some clues as to what the future holds. This post attempts to set the stage and at least touch on all the aspects of the Baht exchange rate. It is 1,200 words long, which is necessary if expats living in Thailand are to understand all the different elements of arguably one of the most important aspects of their expat life here. As a starting point, it should be understood that the Thai Baht is not freely convertible. That means THB cannot be exported from Thailand in any volume, with the exception to neighbouring countries and Yunan Province in China where a 2 million Baht limit exists. THB is traded on global markets but not for delivery. Even banks outside Thailand are restricted from holding THB beyond certain levels. As a consequence, BOT has global control over the value of THB and offshore hedge funds etc cannot take effective positions against the currency to influence its onshore value. Slowly, over time BOT has relaxed many of the currency restrictions placed on both exporters and consumers. For example, even five years ago, exporters were required to sell their foreign currency earnings to the BOT, within one year. Today, exporters are allowed to invest that foreign currency overseas, which delays exporters having to sell USD for THB and further strengthening the Baht. This move was established by BOT to help weaken the Baht. The Thai Baht (THB) is not pegged to USD. But since exports represent about 60% of the Thai economy (GDP) and export bills are mostly settled in USD (which is required to be sold to BOT), the value of the Dollar is important to the economy, mostly to the value of THB. As currency swaps are used more often to pay for exports, along with increased Thai participation in the RCEP (mostly regional + China and Aus.) trade program, the level of influence on THB value, by Dollars earned from exports, will reduce substantially. This has major implications for THB value in the not distant future. THB is a very small boutique currency that represents less than 0.5% of daily FOREX volume, consequently, it doesn’t take much volume to change its value. On the other hand, THB is the 22nd most traded currency in the FOREX. The combination of those two things means at times it can be quite volatile, intra-day swings of 3% are not uncommon. Foreign currency from inbound international tourism (approx. 11% of GDP) is sold to BOT and this becomes part of the Foreign Currency Reserves, which are accounted for in USD and held in safe custody of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS). That trade in foreign currency does not in itself directly increase the strength of THB but the increase in the Foreign Reserves does, since this reflects a robust economy that is financially secure. The direct benefit of tourism to the country is therefore not necessarily a stronger Baht, but increased earnings, employment and GDP. Currencies are traded in pairs, for example, USD/THB. There is no fixed relationship whereby the value of the Baht against one currency means that it must equal a fixed amount against another currency. All currency values move independently, unless a fixed relationship exists. All the major currencies such as GBP, JPY, EUR have a direct relationship with USD, lesser currencies have a relationship via one of those major currencies or by means of a calculation that involve them. For example, the British Pound, GBP, does not have a direct FOREX relationship with THB, instead, GBP/THB is calculated using the following formulae: USD/THB x GBP/USD. This mean that whilst the value of USD/THB is influenced by two currencies/economies, the value of GBP/THB is influenced by three and the reason for movements in that pair is not always immediately obvious. The US Dollar is the major global Reserve Currency, it sits at the top of the FOREX tree and THB is measured against it. The value of USD fluctuates but it’s value is determined by similar factors and in the same way that other currencies are. The value of USD is measured using the benchmark US Dollar Index (DI). The DI compares the value of USD to a basket of six major currencies and expresses that value as a percentage. When USD is strong, the percentage increases above 100, when it is weak it dips below. The USDI value is currently 102, a link to it follows: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy There is no comparable index that measures the strength of the Pound, although the Exchange Rate Index (ERI) comes close. The ERI is a measure of the overall change in the trade-weighted exchange value of sterling, calculated by weighting together a dozen or more bilateral exchange rates. The ERI value is currently 77 and the base year value in 2005 was 100, a link to it follows. As can be seen, GBP is running at only three quarters of its historic strength: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/bk67/mret Supply and demand for a currency is the biggest reason for a change in value. Currencies increase or decrease in value because of underlying economic factors and/or because the currency is bought or sold against USD. Most often, it is changes in those underlying economic factors that cause the currency to be more or less heavily traded. Underlying economic factors include the current and forecast state of a country’s economy, government (or public) debt levels (not consumer debt), capital (in and out) flow, money supply, inflation levels and interest rates, amongst other things. Whilst some believe that the BOT manipulate the value of the Baht, it is highly improbable that they do. BOT is obliged to manage undue exchange rate volatility and to conduct exchange rate smoothing operations, under IMF rules. It cannot be ruled out however that other entities such as major banks and brokers collude to manipulate values since this happens periodically in other cities around the world also. Most people who believe that BOT manipulate the Baht exchange rate think the underlying reason is to keep the Baht strong. The reality is the opposite, most attempts at intervention (not manipulation) by the Central Bank are to try and weaken THB, or at least maintain it in an optimum range, because its natural tendency is to strengthen on its own. An unnecessarily strong Baht hurts exports hence the trend has been for BOT to try and weaken the Baht. Lastly, much has been made of Thailand being accused of currency manipulation by the US Federal Reserve and being placed on a watch list. The type of manipulation described by the Fed. Is not straight forward buying and selling currency but involves a much more complex trade aspect where exports are always greater than imports, particularly to the USA. This has the effect of creating a current account surplus which in turn strengthens the currency. This subject is described more completely in the following link and shows graphically, other alleged currency manipulators which also includes Vietnam, Switzerland and Taiwan! https://www.cfr.org/article/tracking-currency-manipulation

A couple of charts for you to look at, GBP/USD 50+ years, and the ERI or effective trade weighted value of Sterling from the BOE, since 2005. Note the long term downward trend. https://www.chartoasis.com/gbp-usd-forex-chart-50-years-cop0/ https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/bk67/mret/previous/v93

This is particularly interesting because RCEP does NOT use USD to settle trade bills so there are implications here on the value of the Baht. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0264999321002364

Very few people ever do.....so far. I don't intend or want to appear alarmist but things are slowly changing on the tax front. Their objective is to get more people into the tax net and to get more people paying tax. At present, less than 10% of the population is in that net and only about 3% actually pay tax. I saw for the first time last year, the Revenue begin to talk to me about what pensions I received and when, in 20 years of dealings with them they had never raised that before. Their message to me was crystal clear, if I want to reclaim tax paid on savings interest at banks, I need to file a tax return and in doing so, I'd better declare all my income received in Thailand that year, including overseas pensions. That's fine by me, but others may be less OK with it. Key message: store any income you receive overseas, until the calendar year changes.

It is hardly surprising that Bangkok Bank in the US is licensed and regulated by US authorities whilst Bangkok Bank Thailand is licensed and regulated by bodies within Thailand's borders. I can't perceive any bank in the world that operates in a different country, being regulated and licensed by any body other than the one they reside in!

A couple of points: Another poster said that the Pound would fall to 30 within a decade, not in one year as you have reported, I agreed with that poster then and I continue to do so. Looking at a currency value over one year or thereabouts is pretty meaningless, it's really the longer term trend that is important. I wish it weren't that way but the value of the Pound has fallen steadily since Bretton Woods and there's nothing on the radar to suggest it will stop or reverse. You might want to consider looking past the short term blips of property prices going where ever and staff shortages etc etc, look at the bigger picture over a longer timeframe. Part of that bigger picture is the increased levels of public debt, increased tax burden and the lack of inward investment.

Bangkok Bank NY is a wholly owned branch of Bangkok Bank (BBL) Thailand, ditto Bangkok Bank London, they are both commercial branches that lack retail banking licenses. The issue you described about branches of names banks being different entities is true of big name overseas banks in Thailand. UOB is UOB (Thai) and apart from shareholding is unrelated to UOB Singapore. Ditto CIMB Thai, etc etc.

HSBC doesn't have a retail bank operation in Thailand. Bangkok Bank would be a good choice, they have a commercial branch in the US. I do not think you will be able to open an account with Bangkok Bank (BBL) in the US, that will need to done in Thailand. You will need to remit USD to your account in Thailand. Do not remit THB, it's far better to convert to THB in Thailand. Your bank in Thailand will convert the USD to THB automatically. Your transfer should be via SWIFT.

And you know this how?

Nope! If anyone was forecasting 23, that would have been against USD rather than GBP. Given that Dollar/Baht did hit 29 a couple of times last decade and was pegged at 25 for many many years, 23 doesn't seem too ridiculous, within the next decade.

Here, courtesy Henryfords post: "That seems to work ! 14/10/22 P/TB 42.99 P/US 1.13 US/TB 38.03 1.13 x 38.03 = 42.97 14/1/23 P/TB 40.09 P/US 1.22 US/TB 32.79 1.22 x 32.79 = 40.00 So even though the Pound has risen 8% against the dollar it's dropped 7% against the baht, because the dollar has dropped 14% against the baht".

Go back and read the second post on the first page, slowly. Pound/Baht directly related to Pound/Dollar AND Baht. There are three separate movements to be considered, not just two. A couple of posters in this thread and others have done the calculation and proven this, try it for your self, the calculation is there on the first page.

I did just manage to get a print of my MOPH vaccination schedule from the Mor Prom app on my phone. It shows details of all four shots, my name and passport number. My new passport also references my old passport number so maybe that will be enough.

I also am looking for a way to do this. I stopped by the MOPH office and asked them and their solution was to always carry my old passport, as well as my new one!!!

I'm glad to hear you're OK. I would strongly recommend you find another urologist.

"It is going to low 30's." Hope everyone's paying attention to that because I'm sure it is also.

Um, I asked him, he said, you didn't answer the question.