nigelforbes

I live in Chiang Mai and I'm not your pal! The World Bank defines the Thai economy as developing, one step above emerging.

I'm sorry but this just so funny. Farangs alerting each other as to which exit to take from MRT stations because a patch of the pavement outside one of them is smelly and dirty......in Bangkok!

Whoa, calm down! At the risk of provoking you further let me just say that your description doesn't change the facts. Anyway, good luck, I hope you get it sorted, try not to kill too many posters on that journey!

You'll forgive me OP but you appear to making a first world complaint in a third world country.

If you had read the article you would see it says, "About 40% of Chinese travelers aren’t planning to venture overseas". It doesn't say 40% of all Chinese, it specifically says travellers hence respondents have been qualified somehow.

Apparently, the Chinese are staying home, for a series of reasons. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/nearly-half-of-chinese-tourists-don-t-plan-to-travel-overseas-this-year-1.1872119

I don't see the problem TBH, I think the man is talking about the confidence index, not about exports per se. https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports

Go to the tax office and ask for a t ax ID number, as long as your visa shows you are a long term resident and spend at least 183 days here each year, they will issue the ID. AFter that, file a tax return.

Except between Chiang Rai and Nakon Sawan he would probably go through at least five police check points and would almost certainly get pulled at one of them. There's a t least three on the highway between CM and NS.

He lost his girlfriend in a car accident, just as he was hitting the big time, that was the start of his addiction problems that lasted for years.

"Thailand’s rice industry, in particular, is losing ground to competitors because of an elevated value of the Thai baht right now with higher prices sought by producers". Is the problem really a Baht that's too strong or is it the increased prices that are too high!

It sounds like Wise has a Thai banking partner that has a banking license, do you know who it is?

If you think back to 2014 and the unrest in Bangkok, it was all contained in the CBD in Bangkok. The people who actually make up the economy, the manufacturers and the growers, the producers, they aren't there, they're back in their factories and the fields, making, growing and exporting stuff. Inept leadership (if that's what it really is), political unrest, demo's, floods, none of those things stop people from producing and exporting and tourists from holidaying. It's actually quite an enviable economic model.

RIP, thanks for the immense pleasure your music gave me.

Here's the real time currency exchange links for GBP, USD and THB. The USD DI is down very very slightly, GBP is up, which means more Baht and USD per Pound, whilst Baht per USD is broadly flat. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GBPUSD%3DX?p=GBPUSD%3DX https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/THB%3DX?p=THB%3DX https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GBPTHB%3DX?p=GBPTHB%3DX

Perhaps it’s worth explaining the process of how imports and exports are paid for and the associated foreign currency flows. Thai Exporters agree to sell their products to overseas buyers, if financing is required, EXIM, the Export/Import Bank is available to assist. Export contracts are mostly settled in USD although some are paid for by other means, including financing, local currency and currency swaps. Ultimately, the Thai exporter is paid, either directly or via EXIM or into an overseas account. BOT manages all the foreign currency trade aspects, all USD or other currency received from the sale is eventually sold to BOT who returns THB to the exporter and adds the foreign currency to the FCR’s. As you might imagine, most Thai exporters want to convert their foreign currency earnings into usable THB, in order to continue their operations. The primary purpose of the Foreign Currency Reserves is to guarantee trade, international standards are that FCR’s should equal six months of exports, which is broadly what Thailand has. Imports are handled in a similar manner, BOT is the ultimate gate keeper of foreign currency. Any payment sent to the seller overseas will be in foreign currency using FCR’s via the BOT account with the IBS, which out of necessity will involve using both Thai and overseas banks. The value of the FCR are then restored in the form of THB deposited by the purchaser, be they government or private. This means that BOT and the FCR’s see a constant flow of foreign currency in, foreign currency out, and THB in, over a time frame measured in months for a single transaction. Just because BOT exchanges foreign currency for THB, doesn’t mean that THB is no longer part of the FCR’s, it is. If BOT wants to try and weaken THB it must sell THB against USD hence it needs a sizeable supply of Baht on hand at all times. If and when the ratio of foreign currencies to THB becomes unbalanced, BOT buys foreign currencies using Forward Contracts which restores the balance. It is important, I think, to understand the scale of all of this. BOT is managing inbound and outbound FCR payments from Thai banks, EXIM, Government (to pay for oil etc), business and individuals, Capital in and out flows, equities and bond market payments, real estate transactions, overseas social security payments, the list is virtually endless. Average exports have a monthly value of around USD 25 bill, imports are a similar but typically lesser amount, that’s about USD 1.5 bill per day in import/export transactions alone. Every inbound or outbound transaction involving foreign currency and overseas payment or source, involves BOT or its agents. It’s helpful to think of BOT as the single conduit through which all foreign currency payments, inbound and outbound, are made. Thai banks act as agents of BOT in this respect, enforce the BOT regulations and report details of daily volumes back to BOT. https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/imports

Sarcasm noted! Fortunately, it's not my role to try to make you believe these things, just to describe them to you. What you chose to do with them is entirely up to you.

I made an error in my earlier post, point 4 should read imports, not exports....sorry! The FCR's increase when there is a trade surplus (exports greater than imports) but when they don't, such as during covid, imports are greater and that results in a trade deficit. Imports are paid for using the same funds repository that export currencies are paid into, foreign currency is deposited into the account and is also paid out from it to pay for imports. As can be seen from the following link, Thailand operated a trade deficit for much of 2021, this means that FCR's were consumed rather than and not replenished and this further accounts for the repricing differences. https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/balance-of-trade#:~:text=in 3 Months-,Thailand posted a trade deficit of USD 1.34 billion in,a USD 0.2 billion gap.

I personally don't see the term as either positive or negative, it's what it is, the Baht doesn't respond to political upset and after 18 coups in 100 years, who can be suprised!

No, I am aware of that issue. But I thought by now that most people would have understood that there is a large element of political mischief in that article! Let me try and explain. The basic premise of the manipulation argument here is that because the assets were worth X a year ago, they should once again be worth X when the exchange rate returns to normal, a year later. It doesn't work that way and the author of that article knows that! The Foreign Currency Reserves (FCR's) comprise 24 currencies of the largest trading partners, plus gold, plus SDR's (Special Drawing Rights) and crucially, plus THB. The FCR's are accounted for in USD, using the exchange rate at the time they are reported. In December 2021, the FCR's stood at USD 279 bill. and the USD/THB ex rate was 33.38. In October 2022, the FCR's stood at USD 228.7 but the ex. rate was 38. Some people screamed, where's the USD 50 bill gone! In December 2022, the FCR stood at USD 245.8 bill.and the exchange rate was 34.54. If you subtract the December 2021 FCR's from those a year later, the difference is about USD 33 bill. but the exchange rate in December 2022 is higher (33.38 vs 34.54). Several factors account for the difference: 1) the exchange rate is not the same. 2) all the assets in the FCR's moved at a different speed, some returned to normal, others are still at a significant loss. 3) Smoothing and volatility operations for the last six months of 2021, certainly cost money but that volatility control is a part of their remit under IMF rules. 4) Export bills continued to be paid throughout that six month period although the currency was not replaced with similar levels of foreign currency income. The link to the BOT FCR's report, for 2022, by month, is shown below: https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=80&language=eng

I think we have to largely ignore the period from September through January as far as the USD DI is concerned because it was essentially an anomaly. The longer term trend of 20+ years has consistently seen the DI under 100. Evene before that, with the exception of a three year period at the turn of the century, the DI seems to belong under 100. I'm pretty sure THB will rise but I'm less sure that USD will fall or stay flat.

Excellent points Steve. Regarding policy: I think that there's a sweet spot for USD/THB that's around 32 or 33. At that level, exporters can sell and are happy with their profit plus import don't cost a fortune and the oil price is manageable. It's when we see the rate stray to below 30 or above 35 that we begin to see press reports about exporters being unhappy or unable to sell their products and curtain twitchers begin to spot BOT intervening in the markets. The problem is how to make THB stay there (it's there right now) without changing policy on imports or risk making the Baht freely convertible and lose control. Re. 1997: There is little question that 1997 haunts everyone at the bank and in government, still. Everything they do regarding finance has an eye on not even coming close to repeating what happened and nobody wants to be associated with that happening again. Conservative doesn't begin to describe it, great nervousness prevails. Re. Sounds Bites: I also agree these are far and few between, I imagine because they don't want to say one thing and have the opposite happen. There's an element of face in all of this, I think.

Some more useful (real time delayed) links to see what's really going on with each pair. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GBPTHB%3DX?p=GBPTHB%3DX https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/THB%3DX?p=THB%3DX https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GBPUSD%3DX?p=GBPUSD%3DX

What visa you have? Visa exempt, you not tourist. OA, you not tourist, Non Imm O, you not tourist, TR visa, you tourist. You have travel insurance, we not pay. You drunk, we not pay. Dangerous sport, we not pay. No license, not legal, we not pay. Have letter A in day of week, we not pay.

I recommend you read at least the first post in the "Baht Thread" post to get a better understanding of THB and all it entails because despite your 18 years here, you're missing some important pieces of the Baht puzzle.