billyo

I'm sure a smarter PM could play them both off to the benefit of Thailand and to their credit they resisted the high speed train that China was offering to build reputedly because the kick backs weren't enough rather than any principle. That said if they ever allowed the Chinese navy anywhere near Sattahip that they might find their western bank accounts and Harrods's cards no longer working. Western capitalism has helped the Chinese rise to be a global superpower and unwinding our dependency on them peacefully is a decades long project and if it happens precipitously at the point of a gun then all bets are off for the global economy but one thing's for sure it will be brutal and savage in it's implications for the little folk just trying to get by. It is rumoured that Lenin wrote, “When it comes time to hang the capitalists, they will vie with each other for the rope contract.” Indeed.

I was at dinner with a couple of young Thais the other day and I asked who they would be voting for - they laughed and said there was no point , the army always wins.

They will be both neutral and two faced. If China was to invade (which they wouldn't) they would roll over in a day and go "Vichy" with their compliance. Just like they did back in WW2. Prayuth is no Zelinskiy , indeed that is not the point of the army in the Land of Smiles. What's the point of fighting if your country is destroyed in the process. Indeed Thailand is looking to be a safe haven if the world goes to pot and you keep your head down,just ask the Russians !

America is becoming much less important to Thailand than it was, indeed some of the more militant yellow shirts like to frame the US as inflaming the student democracy protests. The Sino-Thai elite which own most of the country has deep personal and cultural and business ties back with the old country and if they had to pick a side it would probably be China but they would rather straddle both camps and play them off against each other. The army is happy to buy duff equipment from any country if the price and kick backs are right - Chinese submarines anyone ? India,China and Russia are current "besties" but all money is "good" as far a the country is concerned. Thailand has no need to fear any US sanctions if any were to happen and besides which it's not in US interests to push Thailand away in any meaningful way. Disappointment maybe expressed diplomatically but that would be it.

Since China has effectively bought up a large proportion of the world reserves of oil,gas,minerals,rare earths and the like all over Asia, Africa and South America through trade/infrastructure "development' deals without any care as to the the ethics or morality of the leaders they have dealt with, a desperate Russia as a pliant client state would be the ultimate prize. That and bogging down the western powers in a protracted war in Ukraine. Sanctioning China at this stage is effectively sanctioning yourself and they hold huge amount of western debt and US treasuries. It also exposes the hand of the west into how much they are truly willing to commit to defend Ukraine , tests Chinese tech against western weapons and informs any future plans they have for Taiwan. WW3 has effectively begun. That said it poses a real dilemma for China. A Russian collapse would make the case for invading Taiwan weak but a prolonged war, with Chinese military assistance, distracts the US, uses military assets and improves the likelihood of "success" in taking Taiwan. On the debit said, it would crash the Chinese economy. We've seen with Putin that the economy comes second to imperial ambition. I'm selling my Apple shares today! https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/040115/reasons-why-china-buys-us-treasury-bonds.asp Gideon Rachman in the FT seems to suggest that Munich and the Biden visit are to front up a united alliance but behind the scenes there are deep misgivings with the course and progress of the war. But while the Russian military has performed worse than expected, the Russian economy has performed better. When swingeing western sanctions were imposed, it was widely predicted that Russia would suffer an economic contraction of 20 per cent or more. In the event, its economy is thought to have shrunk by about 3-4 per cent — and may grow over the next year. The fact that sanctions are not truly global has made them relatively easy to circumvent. By contrast, the Ukrainian economy is in deep trouble and dependent on western aid. For this reason, influential western analysts argue that time is not on Ukraine’s side — and that if Kyiv is to win, it must do so quickly. In Munich, there were frequent calls to give Ukraine all the help it needs to go on the offensive this spring and inflict a decisive defeat on Russia. https://www.ft.com/content/3ff52359-fab7-430f-9e61-b62436fe653f

Whilst China didn't want this war and would prefer trade war to kinetic war it has happened. It is in their strategic long term interests to see the US and NATO bogged down in a European war and if by arming Russia they advance that interest then that is what they will do. It will be an ideal opportunity as well to test out their tech in a war zone to see how it copes with US western/tech. They are playing the long game game as they always have and always will. Russia will end up as a client state with their huge natural reserves available to China almost on demand. Geopolitical strategy is deeply cynical - human rights, democracy and all that stuff is an afterthought not a strategy. General Wesley Clark laid it out in a stark speech back in 2007.

I fly back on Friday - the dense smog makes me happy to be leaving. You can't fix stupid + corruption sadly and until you do it's a given.

It would appear so all the forex booths take it and have rate on it. Last time I saw the rate in BigC was like .3 where the "official" forex rate today is .47 so they maybe taking a big chunk for all the hassle. How that money gets back to Russia if indeed it ever does some expert will need to elucidate. It is a net outflow from Russia though so in some small way it could be negative for the Russian economy.

Just checking the rouble baht conversion pretty much what it was before the invasion and the same ratio as the British pound. I imagine since they are either banned or pretty much shunned in most of Europe and western countries that Thailand must be one of their top destinations. If any of them are digital nomads which I'm sure some will be they then this must be a great place to hang out , make your money and avoid mobilization.

I was out at the Russian night market in Pratamnahk last night with the missus. Probably 95% Russian with the insect food cart Carabao type bloke doing a roaring trade blasting out Russian music and the Russian national anthem and hugging various Ruskies who came to take photos with him. A Bolt driver said they are a pain as they try to cram as many folk as possible into a car. Same at Thepprasit Road night market, never seen so many. The Ukrainian Colonel Sanders type playboy who used to ride round on his motorbike blasting out the Ukrainian anthem a few years back seems to have dissapeared. If you have strong views on who you frequent Thailand with on moral grounds maybe it is time to consider choosing a different country because sure as hell they won't be changing tack.

The US would probably say we saved your guys asses twice in the last century, show us some respect ! UK foreign policy is absolutely to back the US in nearly all instances since WW2 right or wrong. That said Harold Wilson wisely kept us out of the Vietnam War and rightly so. If the US was to pull support from Ukraine it would probably be game over for them as a lot of wavering European allies would fold as well. Global geopolitics is a very dirty game and the US can be a very dirty player if it suits them When the missile hit Poland Biden pushed back very intemperately to Zelinsky. If he wasn't to accede and then subsequently lost stuff would no doubt come out that he would rather not be aired in public and the Great Game would move elsewhere.

They end the report with this conclusion but they obviously want that debate to begin. A dramatic, overnight shift in U.S. policy is politically impossible—both domestically and with allies—and would be unwise in any case. But developing these instruments now and socializing them with Ukraine and with U.S. allies might help catalyze the eventual start of a process that could bring this war to a negotiated end in a time frame that would serve U.S. interests. The alternative is a long war that poses major challenges for the United States, Ukraine, and the rest of the world.

Yes it is well worth reading the document in full and they do indeed pay tribute to the valiant and heroic efforts of Ukraine to liberate their country from Russian aggression. But the concept that the Russians like the Nazis are inherently evil and a threat to European territorial interests and must be defeated at any price is absent from the report. They suggest , to my mind a tad menacingly, here is a peace deal sign or or else no more weapons and no chance of investment. If a more democratic, less corrupt and more prosperous Ukraine rises from the ashes of such a deal then the fight may have been worth it. If such a deal is to be had then it is better it begins now and in earnest rather than any more blood shed.It certainly strikes me as a ray of light and hope in this darkness. Both sides need to feel they have won and the other lost if such a deal is to be had, but the concept of war crime trials and retribution from the Russians won't happen. If Biden pulls such a deal off, if a deal is to be had ,then markets will soar and probably he.or his anointed one will win the next US election. This wasn't the war that the US wanted and that's why Biden offered to get Zelinskiy out when the invasion happened. He surprised everyone with his bravery and valour but probably as a consequence and by not calculating the utter ruthlessness and hold on power that Putin has (backed up by nuclear weapons of course) that his country would suffer most terribly as a result.

This is a very interesting and sobering document from the US think tank the Rand Corporation - an august body funded by the US arms industry and the Pentagon so you can assume that such a piece of work carries a lot of weight in informing and helping to shape US foreign policy. It has been released with virtually no press interest so one could assume it is intended to leak slowly into the debate of how this war could end. My take is that we will start to see a pivot in the narrative shortly as Biden calculates what is the off ramp and can he deliver a peace that brings the oil price down and a resurgent economy before the next election and that the war in uniting NATO , spurring rearmament and degrading and exposing Russian weakness has been a big win for US foreign policy. Just a shame that Zelenskiy and Ukraine has to suffer so terribly as a consequence. In short they assert that US interests are not the same as Ukrainian interests and US policy must put the US economic and military first. They say that maximalism in Ukraine demands to return all their territory from the Russians are unrealistic. The primary focus should be on China not Russia and the Ukraine war is a distraction. Peace should be brokered and maintained by potentially withholding further US military and economic aid if Ukraine doesn't agree. A partial removal of sanctions from Russia should be considered as part of the peace deal. That no side can win and that there is a high risk of escalation that risks the situation spiraling out of control. That rebuilding Ukraine would take enormous investment from western partners and that will only be forthcoming if some sort of DMZ / international partnership brokers a lasting peace which benefits both Russia and Ukraine. https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html Commentary here ; https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2023/02/01/the-soft-chimes-of-a-song-ukraine-doesnt-want-to-hear/

Everybody gotta eat right ?