MangoKorat

16 minutes ago, rabas said:

It's not about stock, it's about transport, prep, and launch bandwidth. How many how fast. There are missiles and there are missiles. Big computer guided missiles/drones can take much more effort. And of course they must all be targeted. 

 

For a data point, again look at my reference on the Russian effort to launch 158 in one day. That was part of a larger attack that lasted 5 days. Total for missiles and drones for the 5 days was 500. 

The information so far is that the attack was mainly composed of drones, something that Iran is reputed to have 000's of thousands of. They are not difficult to launch - especially when you have days to prepare for it. The Iranian Consulate in Syria was attacked on 1 April, Tehran's attack on Israel was 2 weeks later.

Russia is trying to launch missiles in a completely different situation. Although Ukraine's capability is severely depleted, it still fires back.

18 minutes ago, transam said:

Why waste them to achieve nothing, why not 50 to achieve nothing.....🤗

Ask them, they are the ones that achieved nothing.

1 minute ago, Yellowtail said:

So now they wait a while and try again.

Doubtful unless Israel retaliates.  Believe me, Iran really doesn't want a serious attack by Israel, that's why its been leaving it to its proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah to carry out long term smaller attacks. The hardline Iranian Islamist government's position internally has been weakened over the last few years - an attack by Israel would probably mean the end for Khomeini and he will be aware of that.

Until now, Israel would not have received support if it carried out any sustained attack on Iran.  That position is now weaker and if Iran attacks again, the Israelis will feel fully justified in bombing the hell out of Tehran.

There are members of the Israeli government that have wanted to deal with Iran for years - any further attacks from Iran and they may well get their way.  Remember this, Israel is by far the best equipped and strongest military force overall in the entire Middle East, they also have the backing of the US - that's why they still exist.

Iran's main ally Putin, is busy with his own war. He may have stepped in to help that other lunatic in Syria but this conflict is different, I really can't see him getting involved.........unless of course, we move to WW3 but then he'd be rather busy elsewhere. Much as Iran doesn't want to take Israel on directly, Putin doesn't want to take the West on either - not directly.

I'm not an Israeli supporter by the way, I'm just telling it like it is.

5 minutes ago, transam said:

Why send 300+, instead of say, 50 to make a point. The 300+ cost a lot of money, plus they told their "believers", it was a successful raid.........🤭

300 is a minute percentage of the stocks of conventional missiles and drones they hold. They are also widely reputed to have over 3000 ballistic missiles.

10 minutes ago, rabas said:

1. Not a few harmless unsophisticated weapons. Over several hours, Iran fired  a mix of 320+ heavy drones, ballistic missiles, computerized cruise missiles, and hypersonic missiles. Roughly the same mix, and likely some same models as Russia is using to devastate Ukraine. Except, Iran's barrage was double the size of Russia's largest barrage to date (158 in one day). It takes lots of man power and coordination to launch such numbers of high tech weapons.

Come off it.  Iran knows very well that it would come off far worse if Israel launched an out and out attack on them.  They also know very well that in addition to Israel's 'Iron Dome' there are US and UK warships in the region with the capability to shoot down just about anything Iran fires (something Ukraine doesn't have).

47 minutes ago, transam said:

Iran didn't send a couple over to make a point, they sent a lot of money in hardware to do a job which failed via steadfast support and tech..

In fairness, the main reason the attack failed was because Iran had more or less stated what they were going to do - days beforehand. Israel has an effective missile defence system and its allies in the region have been on high alert for months with both US and UK naval vessels constantly monitoring the skies. However, even with that capablity, an unannounced attack would most likely have resulted in more damage.

Had the Iranian attack been spontaneous and done more damage, that would have most likely lead to an immediate and probably sustained response by Israel.  Iran may have hundreds of thousands of missiles but it does not have the sophisticated defence systems that the Isarelis have - they know very well that they can't defend themselves against such an attack.

Iran acted because in the eyes of its 'brothers', it had to be seen to respond to the attack on its Consulate in Syria. Whilst Israel has not admitted responsibility for that attack, it is widely speculated on as having carried it out.

The Iranian public are fed propaganda constantly and I doubt many will know that they could not stand up to a sustained attack by Israel.  As was seen in news footage following the strike on Israel, the capital was full of chest beating Iranian government loyalists who will, I have no doubt, been fed an entirely different story on the efficacy of their attack on Israel.

The Iranian attack appears to have been more symbolic than anything else.  If you tell a bank you're going to rob it, they'll put their security on high alert.

30 minutes ago, Ben Zioner said:

 

"Nice young Brits..."

 

Which one of my three words was racist? Brits?

You know exactly what I mean.

5 minutes ago, MangoKorat said:

I don't believe any of what either he or his buddies have said.  The man is a meglamaniac and dreams of returning to Soviet days or maybe he dreams of being a Tsar?  If that's the case he might want to take account of what happened to the last Tsar and his family.

Nice people those Russians.............

The Russian Imperial Romanov family (Nicholas II of Russia, his wife Alexandra Feodorovna, and their five children: Olga, Tatiana, Maria, Anastasia, and Alexei) were shot and bayoneted to death^[2][3] by Bolshevik revolutionaries under Yakov Yurovsky on the orders of the Ural Regional Soviet in Yekaterinburg on the night of 16–17 July 1918.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_the_Romanov_family

2 minutes ago, eisfeld said:

Putins justifications never made any sense if one thinks about it for 5 seconds.

I don't believe any of what either he or his buddies have said.  The man is a meglamaniac and dreams of returning to Soviet days or maybe he dreams of being a Tsar?  If that's the case he might want to take account of what happened to the last Tsar and his family.

7 hours ago, Ben Zioner said:

Nice young Brits...

 

 

You just can't help yourself can you?  Even when a man has died you just have to make your racist comments.

8 hours ago, sirineou said:

do you think that small border with NATO might be to operative phrase. .

If you had a dangerous neighbored, would you want him neighboring 66km ( The Suwałki Gap) or would you want an additional  2,295.04 kilometres to keep an eye on?

I don't get your point. People have speculated that Putin doesn't want Nato on his borders.  However the facts are that he already has that and if he takes Ukraine, he will have a much bigger one.

6 hours ago, Liquorice said:

Internal Immigration systems can't even access local government databases, or you wouldn't need to obtain a KR2 for extension applications based on Thai spouse, yet you insist they can access external Thai Embassy databases.

I have no idea if Immigration can access matters pertaining to information held by Amphurs but I wouldn't expect them to. 

What I would expect is that Immigration has access to visa information. Immigration and the MFA's tasks cover the same areas - the MFA run the embassies and control visa applications, immigration check visas and allow entry.

I am very much aware that there is separation between the 2 departments - when I was told that a person entering to visit their spouse was not considered to be a tourist, I pointed out that the Thai Embassy in London's website states that a Multi Entry Tourist Visa was applicable for short family visits, the captain at the Suvarnabhumi immigration counter said "we decide which visa is correct, not the embassies".  So yes, they are very much their own departments but I repeat, I do not believe that they don't have access to visa information.

7 hours ago, Liquorice said:

Internal nationwide systems, and you've been able to obtain a KR2 from at least any Provincial Amphur for the last 20 years.

I can assure you that until around 2018, I was unable to obtain a KR2 from anywhere other than the Amphur that I was married at. That is not my opinion, that is a fact, I'm not in the habit of driving over 200km for the sake of it.

When my local office says "sorry, you need to get that from Buriram" - I should have told them they were wrong then? And demand they supply a KR2?

Back to the proposition made in the title of this thread - that Iran may have triggered World War 3 by attacking Israel.  Whilst I don't think that time is yet with us, its a fact that we are closer to that prospect than we have even been since World War 2.

The West has been facing actions and threats, mainly from radical Muslim groups and nations for decades.  It would take pages and pages to discuss the reasons behind those matters but most seem to involve Islamic groups/regimes that impose a particularly radical version of Islam on their people. Some radical Muslim groups also fight against their 'brothers'.

The Palestine/Israel situation has been a particular probelm for even longer. There are very long standing reasons for that conflict and neither side is likely to get what it wants - unless they are made to.  The Palestinians will never succeed in ridding what was Palestine of the Israelis and the Israelis need to respect previously drawn borders.  I can't see things improving there unless a settlement is imposed on both sides but even then - their neighbours might not accept any settlement and continue creating problems

Putin began his aggression in by attacking Georgia in 2008, annexed The Crimea in 2014 and of course, invaded the rest of Ukraine in 2022. The real reasons for his attacks are unknown. Some say he is a bear that shouldn't have been poked by Ukraine's attempts to join both NATO and the EU - he doesn't want NATO or the EU on his borders. That doesn't make sense to me as he already has a small border with NATO and if he is allowed to take Ukraine, he will not only have a bigger border with NATO, he will have more EU neighbours.

Several other smaller conflicts exist around the world, notably in Africa where most of the other 'shaky' regimes exist. Again most of the conflicts involve Muslim nations or groups.

Although there is no current conflict with China, China remains a threat to many nations such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and The Philippines with more recent potential threats towards the latter two. Putin and Xi also made a pact in 2022 describing their relationship as a 'partnership without limits'.

What does the world have to combat these threats to overall world peace?  Nothing is the real answer.  The United Nations is little more than a talking shop, it has no teeth. It only has its 'peace keeping forces' and if they are attacked, they are usually withdrawn.

So, we have a can of worms where different groups seek different things, sometimes out from greed, sometimes seeking power and sometimes trying to impose their ways or religions on others. It is notable that those who are most aggressive usually have very poor human rights records towards their own people. They also, often control the news their populations have access to in order to brainwash them through blatant propaganda.

The solution, well maybe for another 80 years or so, probably is another World War.  Pretty sad really, seeing as humans are supposed to be the most intelligent species. We are an intelligent species without a police force though.

Personally, I believe we are some time from a full on World War but I do think we are creeping slowly but inevitably towards one. The current conflict in the Middle East may accelerate the process though. I don't think Iran will have been the trigger - more like the accelerator pedal, we have been going down that road for quite some time. Using the excuse of respecting sovereignty, we have failed to take on the main troublemakers and allowed their power to grow.

The current conflict in the Middle East appears to be diverting attention and funding away from the biggest threat - Putin.  He must be very happy - it may have taken him much longer to take Ukraine than he ever thought it would but things are not looking too good for Ukraine right now. 

People say that nuclear weapons have been the ultimate deterrent and whilst that may be true, the reverse may also be true. Putin has used the threat of nuclear war to deter other nations and NATO from taking the actions necessary to stop him. I believe that NATO and the rest of Europe will regret not taking Putin on directly or providing Ukraine with the means to do that themselves.

I certainly wouldn't want to live in Poland at the moment.

6 hours ago, MangoKorat said:

My wife and I left Thailand on 27th November and arrived in Singapore the same day

Slight correction there, I was looking at visa stamps in my old passport as I typed. It was open on a page with Singapore stamps. We of course, arrived in Taipei.

9 minutes ago, Liquorice said:

It's an educated opinion based on what I know of the e-visa and Thai Embassy external systems, which are operated by Thailand's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, against the totally separate internal systems operated by Thai Immigration. That and common sense.

Thank you - perhaps you should have made it clear that its an opinion?

Common sense?  I base my 'common sense' on my actual experiences although on several occasions on this website I've been told I'm wrong by people who think they know better.

My assertions in this case are based on what I once saw on the screen I.O.'s screen during a protracted discussion firstly on immediate arrival where I was being considered for denial and later at the Immigration counter when, after being warned but allowed entry I went to discuss the matter further (not the same matter as up for discussion here but I did see the screen).

Its some years ago now but I was quite amazed at what they had on me - all my passports and visas since 2002 - for various reasons there have been 4 passports which they (rightly) linked to me. I only saw 2 pages, I think, as the officer at the counter kept flicking through as I asked questions. There were several pages that I didn't get to see. The pertainent point is that all my entries were on the screen together with my visas and passports, I know that because I saw them. I cannot state with any honesty that those visas were only ones that had been triggered or not as I cannot read Thai but they were on the screen.

Since then some departments of administration in Thailand have begun to share information.  For example, its not so long ago that you had to go to the Amphur where you got married in order to obtain proof that your marriage still subsists (Kor Ror 2).  Now that information can be obtained at any Amphur. When you get divorced, it is entered onto the system nationwide. I know of people who used to continue obtaining visas long after they were divorced - I wouldn't recommend trying that these days.

That and I also simply find it difficult, almost impossible, to believe that a closely related department wouldn't be able to access crucial information.

Immigration Entry Officers in the UK can even access the answers to questions on a visa application form - they can and often do, ask entrants questions and compare them to the application.

Thailand is not the UK granted, but it is difficult to believe that Thai Immigration Police do not know whether or not a visa has been issued. They are the first line of defence against fake passports and visas which are both known to exist. Surely a visa needs to be verified?  As an application for an E-Visa is done online, it would be fairly easy for the information to be shared with Immigration once granted - it would not require manual data entry.

Relating this to the OP, I think that the chances of Immigration knowing he holds a visa are real. It may depend on whether or not the I.O. takes the time to read all the information available and it may also depend on whether or not the I.O. agrees not to trigger his visa. It seems to be 'up to them'.

When they triggered mine, I got the distinct impression that they didn't have to. I'm pretty sure thay could just have stamped me in for 30 days but the officer refused.  When you are married to a Thai citizen, you should not enter using a 30 day waiver, you are not considered to be a tourist - that is from the 'horses mouth' on a separate occasion, not my own thoughts.  If the OP is married he should not try to enter visa exempt.

There will be plenty of people who have entered and left Thailand more times than I have but I would guess that I have done it more than most here and under several different sets of circumstances.  I have therefore come across more situations than many will have and probably been quesioned more.  That is the only reason I know what I know, I don't claim to have any special knowledge, I just refer to my experiences.

Whatever, it is my opinion that the OP is risking triggering his visa if he tries to enter on a 30 day. He could be lucky but it remains a possibility.

Reading over the last few pages, you don't seem to understand that your comments have an abrasive tilt to them and are asking for insults.  One example......your Ground Control to Major Tom comment, intimating that I had not understood something when in fact, the reverse was true.

That point has been picked up by at least one other member who has commented that you clearly did not understand but continued 'banging on'.

I'm not going to continually repeat myself - I suggest you go back over the last few pages - you might then recognise your errors.

I for one, have said my last on the subject.

9 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Find it whatever you wish....

You are wrong

 

This comment earlier is correct..

"Thai Embassy system and Thailand internal entry are totally separate systems."

Do you think its is acceptable for a poster to make a claim about what information is available to government agencies and not prove it?

We have to accept it that it is the truth simply because you and another poster say it is?

Many times on this forum, people are required to back up such claims, it may I think, also be a forum rule.

I state again. I do not believe the Thai Immigration do not have access to visa information for people wishing to enter the Kingdom.  I will only accept such a statement with proof.

2 minutes ago, Wobblybob said:

And it gets equally frustrating when you continue to bait other posters, the warning has been given by the mods, have you no control what comes out of your hate filled mouth? 

You are totally over-reacting.  Please see the edit to my previous post. I have no intention of continually posting the same replies. I didn't understand your first reply and I understand even less now.

There is nothing hateful in what I type, I don't know you.

Let's leave it at that shall we, I'm not in the mood for further confusion today.

4 minutes ago, Wobblybob said:

That is two posters to my knowledge that you have accused of having Alzheimer's and it just shows what state your mind is in, if you cannot conduct yourself in a decent manner on these boards why don't you do the decent thing and crawl back under your bridge, you are a nazty piece of .... 

Sorry you take it that way.  It gets pretty frustrating when you have to continually repeat parts of a post to get a point across. It is equally as frustrating when things you post are read back to front.

What I have stated is factual, its not something I have special knowledge of. The fact that Israel has carried out air operations in both Iraq and Syria shows it has no worries about using their airspace and reports of those activities are available on several news websites.

Further, a glance at a map of the area would seem to indicate that there is no need for Israeli aircraft to fly over Saudi Arabia to get to Iran.

2 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Read some earlier posts from @Liquorice

He is correct. You are not.

However I have mentioned in 2 posts suggest OP bring it to IO attention.  

I think you know what I am asking.  He has stated that Immigration do not have access to Visa information. I don't believe that.  I will accept that is a fact only if I'm shown evidence of it.  I

Its incredulous to think that the department that deals with foreigners either entering the country or living in it, doesn't have access to information about their visa status.

46 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Your contention is incorrect. 

 

And your proof of that statement is?