Hawaiian

On 8/19/2022 at 12:28 AM, PJ71 said:

I don't know anyone that bothers to pay attention to this anymore.....

 

 

My wife and I will not be traveling to Thailand this year to visit her 90+ year old father.

Like many others, we are paying attention to the situation.

11 hours ago, John Drake said:

That was the fantasy fed by the likes of the Bushes and Clintons, who were busy cashing in.

Then Hunter Biden decided he wanted in on the action.

4 hours ago, jacko45k said:

I seem to recall that in early days of The Russian Invasion claims were made that Russia would be brought to it's knees by the sanctions.... does not seem to be the case after 6 months. 

The sanctions imposed are mostly against Putin and his buddies. Only targeting the oligarchs is not very effective.  Every Russian bank should have been sanctioned.  Access to SWIFT should have been immediately denied.  Sanctions that were considered to hurt the general population were not imposed.  Not playing hardball is not very smart.

I believe Gknrd was responding to what might happen in a scenario where both sanctions AND a blockade were employed.  As I mentioned, China is very reliant on imported food and fuel, whereas Russia is not.

2 hours ago, GinBoy2 said:

One thing that all this turmoil has revealed is that globalization is dead and buried.

 

The idea after the end of the cold war was that we could all be friends and trade together.

 

Manufacturing moved swiftly from the West to China, energy dependance for Europe moved to Russia.

 

Well Ukraine, Hong Kong, threats to Taiwan have pretty much knocked all of that in the head.

 

We are seeing a pretty rapid retreat to the 1980's orthodoxy of power blocks.

 

Manufacturing is beating a pretty hasty retreat back to the US and North America in general and the CHIPS act is pretty significant.

I worked in semiconductors all my working life and few of you really comprehend how much we globally depend on one single company, TSMC for all advanced semiconductor manufacturing. The chip may well be designed in California or Munich but its manufactured in Taiwan. 

If and when Beijing does go for it and try to invade Taiwan all Hell will break loose.

 

So the idea that the US would give Thailand access to F-35 technology which would without a doubt leak to the CCP and aid and abet the regime is farcical.

One of the stories told is that if the West diverted manufacturing to China and partnered with Chinese companies the country would evolve to a form of democracy.

As we well know now,  Xi has become more authoritarian, and silences anyone who dares to challenge his leadership. 

We also know that the real motive in moving to China was money.  So much money that it was worthwhile putting up with rampant corruption and industrial espionage.

Lesson learned.  Think not.  The big boys are still there.

Losing access to the chips that TSMC produces is a major reason to protect Taiwan from China.  People like GinBoy2 have been warning about this for quite awhile.  Finally Congress has decided to act, hoping that Taiwan doesn't fall before  U.S. chipmakers

can start production.

As far as I know, China still does not have the technology and equipment to make nano chips. 

Patriotism usually gets thrown out the window when you and your loved ones have no food on the table.  Have you seen videos of Chinese fighting against the police when they are denied access to the bare necessities?  Have you seen how aggressive Chinese shoppers are when faced with limited food in the markets?

Russia may side with China, but in actuality will do little to help.  Historically, both countries have been at odds and do not trust each other.

While I claim both Russian and Chinese ancestry it is ironic that I detest both countries.

3 hours ago, jacko45k said:

That was probably said of Putin...yet here we still are.

Russia does not need to import oil nor food to feed its 145 million people while China has 1.4 billion hungry mouths to feed.  How long do you think China will last if the tankers and the container ships of food stop coming? 

One of the goals of the Belt Road Initiative was to prevent this from happening.  Ever wonder why you don't hear much about this gargantuan project anymore?

21 minutes ago, GinBoy2 said:

Don't wanna derail this thread, but...

 

If Xi was to decide to invade Taiwan that would also imply taking out US military assets in Japan at the same time.

 

Thats a WW3 scenario, and I'm not sure Xi is ready for that....yet!

Let us hope that "yet" never comes.  While China has a formidable military force Xi knows such a decision will not end well for China.  China has few allies and most would be of little help.

1 hour ago, placnx said:

Japan is very capable militarily. Ironically, they prevented Chiang Kai Shek from defeating Mao Tse Tung & CCP. Now however, China & Japan both face demographic issues that risk to hamper them economically and militarily. That will not happen soon enough for Taiwan, though.

Is Xi willing to risk the economic fallout if he invades Taiwan.  Besides sanctions, the U.S. and its allies could impose a blockade that would disrupt shipping and devastate the Chinese economy and also affect its food supply.  Only time will tell.

5 hours ago, Gknrd said:

I think the US could care less at this point. 

From a geopolitical stand point it is just a matter of time and how China will go out. With mushroom clouds or implode internally.

Either way, Thailand is in a fairly good position to feed it's self. So good news. Energy wise is a different story.

The US has all it's energy needs in house, food is good in house. Factories are relocating to Mexico. Mexico will be a huge player in the next few years.

Personally I say let Thailand go down the rabbit hole with China.

The elephant in the room IMO is Japan. It has the navy and the resources to take what it wants. It is aligned with the US and others to make it a power second to none in the region. Watch out for Japan IMO.

Just my onion but what I believe will happen at this point.

I tend to agree with everything you have said, especially about Japan's potential to become a force to reckon with.  The U.S. alliance with the Japanese is the best bet to counter China's aggression.

As you implied, China has internal problems that could take down the ruling CCP.  Their economy has matured to the point that it is not able to meet the needs and expectations of its people.  Don't hear much about the New Silk Road.  It is a financial investment that is over ambitious and over extended.  In other words, a money sinkhole.

At Walmart I buy a 12 pack box of Express brand ramen with 3 ounce packs for $2.88 which comes to 24 cents a pack vs. a 2.11 ounce pack of Mama for 23 cents (with the 2 baht raise) in Thailand.

I have seen Mama sold at one Hawaii supermarket for 80 cent a pack which is more than 3 times the cost of the Express brand.

I often use ramen mixed in with stir fry pork and vegetables, a dish my Thai wife likes.

22 hours ago, KhunBENQ said:

Price in Germany almost triple of the price here.

Gas prices exploding.

Price here on the island of Hawaii is almost four times.  Customers on another island pay even more. 

6 hours ago, aussiexpat said:

I personally wouldn't do an overstay as I prefer to keep my clean record of entries

 

But that's me, I also leave on day 59 when I have 60 days stamped, just to be sure no flight issues ????

  

Years ago before I knew the rules, I booked a round trip with a return flight which put me at 11 days overstay.  I applied for a 7 day extension (maximum allowed) at 1900 baht.  Immigration told me to pay the overstay fine upon departure which I did.  The young women at the airport was all smiles when I had the 2,000 baht ready and she didn't have to explain anything to me.

I have made over a dozen trips since then and never had a problem with immigration.

3 hours ago, possum1931 said:

He has the soldiers and the guns, I think that the only people who can put him out will be another General.

So did Ferdinand Marcos.  Now it looks like his son Ferdinand Jr. (Bongbong) is reviving the Marcos Dynasty.

1 hour ago, Cake Monster said:

Many of the price rises have nothing at all to do with the rise in Oil prices since the Invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

Most of the increases are down to the actual rise in the Raw Commodity prices as a consequence of the War.

Cooking Oil is rising massively due to the fact that Ukraine supplies about 70 % of the Worlds Sunflower Oil, and because of the War this supply has stopped completely.

Buyers are therefore looking at alternative sources for their Cooking Oil Supplies, and palm Oil was the obvious choice.

However, Indonesia has stopped all Exports of Palm Oil, and they produce a whopping 80 % of the Worlds supply

Palm Oil is used not just for Cooking, but in a wide range of products from Icecream, Soap, Shampoo, and Condensed Milk Etc Etc 

Many Agri products are also going to be affected by the soaring cost of Fertilsers, which is something the entire World relies upon for sustainable food supplies.

I am paying 60% more for fertilizer and almost double for herbicides. 

On 4/9/2022 at 3:41 AM, Soikhaonoiken said:

Ah yes,  but the other Countries selling quality Vaccines weren't offering large brown envelopes like China was...

Some of our relatives in Thailand are paying B2000 a Pfizer shot rather than trusting Chinese

rubbish.

On 4/8/2022 at 3:48 PM, Canadian Snowbird said:

And the "flip flop" continues. Who wants to make plans to return when you can't trust what the requirements will be when it's time for departure? 

I told my Thai girlfriend that I doubt very much we will be going to Thailand this year.  I will not go until all the ridiculous requirements are rescinded.  She will not go without me and agrees that the rules are a bunch of bureaucratic nonsense.  Both of us have been exposed

to the virus, tested positive, but were asymptomatic.  We both had three shots of Pfizer.

6 hours ago, chrisbangkok said:

Or me a fit triple vaccinated healthy guy that caught it in January . Never felt so ill in all my life . Wouldn't wish it on anyone . 2 weeks of unbelievable headaches and joint pains etc . Oh for a common cold as you put it . 

Me, at 82 years of age, triple vaccinated, also tested positive in January.  Luckily asymptomatic.  Latest studies show that genetics determines who experiences the the most severe symptoms.

 Putin is keeping the bulk of his air force out of the conflict just in case NATO decides to get involved.  Now that Poland is promising to furnish inherited warplanes from the USSR era Putin is more inclined to keep his fighters in reserve to counter the new threat.

36 minutes ago, mrfill said:

Paypal have been "working with the Thai authorities. "

 

Is that a euphemism for "brown enveloping"?

Mystery solved.

23 minutes ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

If you were in a bar and a bar room brawl broke out , would you get involved and give your judgement about who was in the right and who was in the wrong , or would you just let them get on with it and not get involved ?

Not a good analogy.  Why?  One word.  Alcohol!

On 2/28/2022 at 7:01 AM, Thunglom said:

they have loads, they just can't use them anymore

That's right.  The sanctions have frozen one half  to two thirds of their foreign currency reserves, which will be drained faster than expected.

On 2/28/2022 at 12:11 AM, Mises said:

Russia has amassed foreign exchange reserves of $635bn, the fifth highest in the world and rising. It has a national debt of 18pc of GDP, the sixth lowest in the world, and falling.

 

The commodity boom is adding an extra $10bn a month to Kremlin coffers from oil and gas. It is being squirrelled away in the National Wellbeing Fund.

 

The Kremlin could sever all gas flows to Europe – 41pc of the EU’s supply – for two years or more without running into serious financial buffers.

 

The harsh truth was summed up by Russia’s ambassador to Sweden. “Excuse my language, but we couldn’t give a <deleted> about western sanctions,” he told the Aftonbladet newspaper.

 

But right now China has Russia’s back against the West, and this renders it impossible to enforce meaningful sanctions.

 

 

 

 

 

China has it's own financial problems and cannot carry Russia for any length of time.  If sanctions are not very effective, why was Putin so upset that he mentioned them as one of the reasons for his veiled nuclear threat.  The SWIFT sanctions are only partial.  Cutting Russia off completely from SWIFT will have a devastating effect and Putin knows this.  Russia's foreign exchange reserves can last only so long and then what?  The rouble's fall is not over and it may take Putin down with it.

29 minutes ago, Hawaiian said:

Wasabi may be grown commercially exclusively in Japan, but is also grown on a small scale in Hawaii.  I live in the Volcano area on the island of Hawaii at 4,000 ft. elevation where winter time temperatures can drop into the 40s F.  The guy raising the wasabia japonica is also a commercial vegetable farmer.  His wasabi plants are watered 4 times a day and he has harvested mature plants.  He got the original plants from another Japanese farmer who imported them from Japan.

The first ingredient listed on a tube of PREMIUM S&B Wasabi Paste is wasabi.  It sells for 3 to four times the price of the colored horseradish.  As for preference, it depends on how much you want to spend. 

Saw this just now.  Oregon Coast Wasabi, the largest wasabi farm in the U.S.  By the way, my neighbor buys wasabi tissue cultures from a Vancouver company every 2 to three years.