Just now, Bkk Brian said:

You already told me you don' live here  maybe thats why

 I never said that Brian. 

Just musing that, if I were living in Thailand, I would want some empirical evidence of the Covid disaster you all claim it to be.

1 hour ago, anchadian said:

You make me laugh TaoNow, criticizing other members and telling them to clarify the Covid-19 situation.

 

You being an outsider. i.e not resident in Thailand, I doubt you would do the necessary checking if you were here.

 

There's a name for you, but it would be foolish to mention it on this forum.

 

 

How do you know I am not a resident? 

I am not challenging the truth of what others post, just asking for evidence.

And appealing for calm and circumspection. 

Perhaps you could use some too?

3 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I do enjoy a bit of sarcasm and humour in my posts as it helps keep the mood up.I'm usually critical of name callers who use name calling as a primary weapon in a debate.I can take any side in a debate to explore more possibilities so probably best not to take to seriously in anything I say.I also have as long as I can remember liked to ask questions particularly annoying ones most of us shy away from.You can make all the judgement or even speculate on my  stance on the best way to handle the pandemic.There are some of us here that swear they've already had the virus and it has been discussed ad infinitum.As for speculation perhaps you'll enlighten me as to why it's unwise to speculate and why are you telling me this?And when has wisdom had anything to do with a covid debate?

I've already checked the hospitals and the ones I checked are all full as I've already 

mentioned and have been for 20 years that I've been checking, perhaps you thought I was joking well think again as I've been a regular visitor to hospitals.I actually thought you were joking when you first proposed this idea then I realised you were actually serious.

As for the "network of followers" I like your style of humour so I'll pay that one.About the only sense I get with this pandemic in Thailand is Thailand is ranked 104th for transparency and corruption.I'm not going to get a true sense of the pandemic here and very few others will either no matter how many hospital beds I look at.See when the name calling stops we can discuss things.

 

Farflung:  Thank you for your thoughtful response. 

Could you please name the Thai hospitals you have been monitoring for bed occupancy so that we don't have duplication, whereby TV members go to the same place?

The most efficient approach would be if we had about 50 TV members covering all regions of the country reporting bed occupancy rates, perhaps on weekly basis, and only when a significant change occurs.

1 minute ago, meltonpie said:

Network?

I'm not suggesting the figures are bogus but I am suggesting that they are not robust enough.

Anyone going to a hospital at the moment without a medical need would be behaving very irresponsibly and they would be able to learn nothing about how many people that haven't presented had the virus.

 You can check the bed occupancy figures by asking your extensive network of Thai friends and relatives to ask the nurses and doctors at the local hospital. 

You and your pals do not need to go there.

Stay safe, Melton

3 minutes ago, meltonpie said:

I thought we had reached some agreement based on your relentless comments about Thailand having a positivity rate of 5% ?

The link I provided yesterday from Johns Hopkins suggests that this is a level that actually requires testing to be stepped up.  I thought you had acknowledged that?

So, why does Thailand choose not to?

Is it that they don't want to spend the money? To me it would seem a wise investment.  get a real grip on what is happening take fast appropriate measures, including ramping up vaccinations and try to get the economy moving again instead of death by a thousand cuts.

Is it that they do not wish to show an increase in infections (for whatever reason)?  This is perplexing - would this be about saving face?

Is it that they do not have the capacity to do much more?  If this is the case they should invest in more for the same reasons I have already mentioned.  The concerning thing here is that they must clearly be doing a lot more testing in prisons. Does that mean that have to cut back elsewhere?

It seems to me that for all the talk of reopenings, sandboxes, starting international travel etc etc unless they can get a real fix about what is happening and be able to demonstrate it with robust data the situation will continue along the same lines for some time.  This wave has proven that Thais are not immune so they need to learn from the mistakes that have happened elsewhere and from the seemingly upbeat data regarding vaccinations.

Leaving the number of new infections and deaths aside, the Thai Government needs to do a whole pile more in order to kick start the economy.

My prediction - the numbers will come down (maybe through manipulation/lack of robustness), places will open up, the numbers will rise, places will close, rinse and repeat. Whatever the medical consequences the impact on income and business will be even more devastating.

 

 

Melton: 

All good points. 

But, instead of complaining and speculating, why not go out and check for yourself?  

You and your network of TV members could quickly clarify the Covid epidemic situation by visiting hospitals in your neighborhood and report bed occupancy rates.

That would be the most effective action you could take to prove that the government data on Covid infections are bogus.

Godspeed

5 hours ago, daveAustin said:

Might have something to do with just about every other country is testing appropriately. Numbers are flat because they’re at their capacity. Eg — hypothetical 10% infection rate: test 100 people out of 1000 what’s the max you’d expect?

Dave: you are so right.

We really need more TV members like you to check out the bed occupancy rate of their local hospital in Thailand.

Only that way can we prove that the government data on Covid test results are bogus.

Please report back soonest.

2 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Yes that's right. Possibly 'fake news' but let's see. These things take time to come out. Again talk or speculation about this should end here.

And dinsdale, I think you have already admitted to posting fake news on this forum.  Shame, there.

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Bangkok opens 6th field hospital as virus spreads to 16 districts

The Ratchaphiphat 2 field hospital is located in the temple school at Wat Si Sudaram Worawihan in Bangkok Noi, which is one of 16 districts battling cluster outbreaks across the capital.

 

"This is the first field hospital to open inside a temple with strict measures to contain the spread of Covid-19, including wastewater and garbage management," Aswin said.

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40001058

 Yes, Brian, this is prudent, since any Covid-positive has to go to quarantine regardless of symptoms or none, unlike, I presume, the UK?

So, just monitor the field hospital bed occupancy rate to see what the situation is.   

That is not too "late in the game" wouldn't you say?

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Tragic news, one will never know how long she would have survived without the virus effecting her. Her family must be distraught.

Yes, Brian.  The Covid virus is the source of all evils, isn't it?

4 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

I didn't go to the hospital. Are you kidding. Dangerous place. 

So you were a liar after all?

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

The UK strain is scientifically proven to be far more contagious so any risk assessment should be squarely based on that. 

 

You're right the world numbers are declining thankfully and thats a fair point that India has an impact on. As will be the UK after its harsh lockdowns and vaccine roll outs which eventually curbed the UK variant, the US and other large nations.

 

Thailand is not doing mass vaccinations yet so until it is then the virus is able to spread at will. With Bangkok out of control the other provinces which have been able to contain the virus could also be susceptible to people traveling from Bangkok. We only need a few cases to start it up again in any province, with the lack of more testing this is even more significant.

 

I think the health workers here do an excellent job, my concern is with the politics getting in the way of health advice.

 Careful, Brian...Bangkok is not yet "out of control." 

2 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Care to name those in the "doom tribe" so they can defend themselves in the open against hints and allegations?Otherwise we don't know of whom you are asking the question.

I'll name you for starters.

5 hours ago, Megasin1 said:

I find it strange that a drop in 16 ICU beds is spun as positive in the post and can't believe its true. If 35 died then surely the ICU bed take-up has actually gone up by 19......

Exactly. 

Please go and check out the hospital in your locality to see what the bed occupancy rate is.   

If enough TV members around the country do this, then we may be able to get an accurate reading on the situation, week to week. 

Please pass the word.

Just now, dinsdale said:

Don't actually think I've agreed with anything you've posted.

But you checked the beds at your local hospital like I asked you to.  That was great!

5 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Complete rubbish. Testing will always be part of this until it is eradicated. It's not too late just mismanaged.

dinsdale - what happened? I thought you and I agreed that we need to monitor the trends in Covid in-patients!  Don't go over to the dark side on this.

32 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

The issue with counting available beds is that the number of tests is being managed in many locations based on bed availability.  They quit testing in some areas when the beds are running short.

 

And now that they've built tens of thousands of new beds, they're testing more people.  Which may be the reason that positive tests are up.  Way up.

 

Impulse: you make a good point.  I was thinking only in terms of Covid cases who were sick enough to require hospitalization.

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I do wonder why you differ in your opinion to the many Health Experts nationally that have expressed their concern.

 

Preventative measure are the only way, not monitoring death rates, getting data from death rates is a little late to have avoided them in the first place. Death rate data is great for assessing the impact of the virus but thats all.

 

As WHO says, TEST TEST TEST followed by all the other basic measure that do not need repeating again.

 

My local hospital: Here you can have a few links:

 

https://www.thephuketnews.com/phuket-health-officials-concerned-over-icu-bed-shortage-79903.php

 

https://thethaiger.com/news/phuket/icu-beds-for-covid-19-patients-in-phuket-are-close-to-a-critical-low

 

https://www.thephuketnews.com/phuket-health-officials-concerned-over-icu-bed-shortage-79903.php

 

But that give a very narrow picture of just one province, as I mentioned the national ICU and covid ward availability is normally posted here every two or 3 days direct from the officall CCSA daily briefings.

Thank you Brian.  I love Phuket and lived there during 2008-2011.  Perhaps we crossed paths?

I am as frustrated as you and others about the inconsistency of the government Covid case report data. 

I have been imploring my erstwhile contacts with the MOPH to release the national time series of Covid sentinel surveillance data they presumably have on risk populations.  At least that would give some impartial indication of the levels and trends in spread.

Until then, all we have are the daily, new case reports which seem strangely constant to me too. 

And then you have the sudden data dumps of prisoner Covid, which may have been the result of testing conducted over many weeks.

With all these uncertainties and irregularities in the Thai testing and reporting system, I am appealing to you and others on the forum to focus on trends in Covid mortality and the hospital-bed occupancy rate as more reliable indicators to assess the severity of the epidemic -- even if we are somewhat behind the curve.

And even if we are late in our assessment, it won't change the government's Covid control strategy. 

So what is gained by crying foul?

7 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Looking at mortality rate is a little late in the game to stop the spread and people dying my pal.

 

The hospital or lack or hospital beds in ICU and covid wards is posted at least every other day on these threads, you may want to check yourself, its not pretty reading. As for my local area I already check and last week they were at critical stage for ICU admission because of covid patients.

Brian:  Could you name your local hospital?  That would prevent duplication by other members who want to check their local hospitals.  Plus, if Covid beds and Covid ICU beds are increasing, that would surely have a strong correlation with Covid deaths.  Are you seeing them in the national data?

Also, when Covid kills, it kills fairly rapidly, so I don't think it is "too late in the game" to consider mortality as an indicator.

Surely, you would examine the trend lines in deaths (if you believe the data) if you wanted to assess the severity of the situation.

That would only support your argument of out-of-control spread, wouldn't it?

1 hour ago, ourmanflint said:

Quick question, does the Sars-Cov-2 virus behave differently in Thailand for some unknown reason than it does everywhere else in the world, and if not why are you expecting a different outcome?

Outmanflint:  Thanks for the question. 

That is the issue that many of my colleagues around the world have been discussing. 

Was it the masks in the early stages? 

Was it the international border closures? 

Was it the lock-downs and travel restrictions? 

Was it some pre-existing protection from exposure to other ARI pathogens that has kept Thai mortality low for Covid-19?

The fact is we don't know what explains Thailand's current level of Covid mortality. 

And I have no idea what the outcome will be of the path of this virus (in the absence of widespread vaccine coverage).

That is why I am appealing to posters to refrain from jumping to conclusions (e.g., that the Thai epidemic is out of control, that the government is falsifying case reports, that the data are being suppressed or manipulated).

There is no evidence that the Thai government is falsifying data.  Although there might be some irregularities in case reporting.

I think everyone should remain calm and as open-minded as possible, especially since this is a public forum, viewable by all. 

Until then, we should focus on the most empirical data availble, which is Covid deaths and Covid hospitalizations to assess the seriousness of the Thai Covid situation.

36 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Looking a the charts it looks out of control to me

 

 

Brian, my pal, as I mentioned earlier in this thread, and as Danderman and I have suggested:  Look at the national Covid-29 mortality data over time.

"dinsdale" has already gone to the trouble of checking out his local Thai hospital to see if bed occupancy is reaching capacity.  

That would be the best indicator if the situation is 'out of control.'

Please encourage all your brethren to check their local hospital for bed occupancy and report back.

That is the only empirical evidence we have since very few people on this forum believe the government data.

12 minutes ago, club said:

Your posting is evidence

Sir Club:  I am looking at the daily number of Covid-19 deaths in Thailand. 

If you don't believe those data as reported in the daily briedings, why are you on this thread"