33 minutes ago, redsongthaew said:

 

If you had 70 million bowls of soup, from tens of thousands of different kitchens, made by constantly changing chefs using differing ingredients, how would you determine which bowls of soup were too salty?

 

The definitive way would be to test them all. Or you could test a percentage and extrapolate your results.

 

Testing a few thousand bowls of soup and then using the results to form an opinion about the remaining 69,900,000 bowls of soup is probably not a truly representative way of doing things.

Ahh...but it all depends on which indicator you are looking for.  Does dinsdale want to know the national prevalence of Covid?

23 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

What do you call adequate testing in a country of 70,000,000.

Dinsdale, my pal: 

When you order a bowl of soup at a restaurant and want to check and see if the soup is too salty or not, do you drink the whole bowl of soup, or do you try a spoonful?  Food for thought.

24 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Thanks, not good news though, up it goes

The literal translation of the term in the charts that's being referred to to as the  'positivity rate'  is "high-risk contact cases."

So, presumably this means that they are checking people who had close and prolonged contact with a newly-infected person. 

That the trend line is upward may indicate increased infectiousness within households/worksites.

But it is not sentinel surveillance data. 

3 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Today, a Thai government spokeswoman tweeted that Bangok currently has about a 60% occupancy rate for hospital beds... not clear if she meant province only or the broader Bangkok region...  But that's somewhat misleading, especially when they start adding in all the field hospital and hotel-hospital beds (which aren't really hospitals!).

 

To me, the more meaningful stat would be what's the current bed occupancy rate for ICU beds in Bangkok province and the broader Bangkok region. And they haven't been very clear in coughing up that kind of specific detail lately.

 

I agree totally with you on this.

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

There a supposed law against taking photos of patients in COVID field hospitals without their explicit permission.

 

So, the only photos the government typically issues are those showing the field hospital facilities prior to the arrival of patients. Plus they're less messy looking that way.

 

Fair enough John: 

But let's try to access the daily bed-occupancy rates for these field hospitals, as portrayed in the photos and others.

The other day,  I heard them announce those rates on Thai radio but I did not have time to jot down the numbers. 

Just off the top of my head, from that announcement a few days ago, the occupancy of the field hospitals in/around Bangkok was 20%  -- but that is a guess, as I was doing the percents in my head as they announced the figures.

Besides, who on this forum would believe the government data on field hospital bed occupancy ?

So, if possible, in the days ahead, could you help us focus on the bed-occupancy rate of the field hospitals -- if you have sources that are better than the average TV member?

I think that would be the most empirical evidence of where the Covid-19 epidemic in Thailand is going.

Thank you for your updates, graphs, and summaries, by the way.

39 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Looking for that special place for a Thailand COVID getaway?  Thailand now has a growing roster of accommodations to meet your needs:  ????

 

 

1,200-bed Busarakham Field Hospital at Challenger Hall, Impact Muang Thong Thani in Nonthaburi

 

 

 

280-bed "Hospitel" at Elegant Airport Hotel in Bangkok

 

 

Bangkhunthian Geriatric Hospital in Bangkok

 

100-bed Erawan Hospital 1, Bangbon District of Bangkok

 

 

 

200-bed Sanam Ratchaphiphat 2 Hospital in Bangkok

 

 

 

Those beds are looking pretty empty to me....

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Agreed, back on topic and to make such an exemplary suggestion as you have please show us the way and lead us into righteousness by taking a tour of the hospitals in your area first, please include the names and numbers as evidence then report back when you have all the necessary results.

Brian, I have not said that I am currently resident in Thailand...

2 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Sometimes evidence is bit difficult to obtain from statistics provided.

I have Thai partner of 10years. We live Ding Daeng. Have been on island last couple of months after leaving Bangkok.

Some family in our area are saying ... do NOT come back. They live Ding Daeng market area and seeing mini van ambulance many times per day.

BTW, I don't like posts such as the one I just made. However sometimes people on the ground give good advice. 

Thanks Dr. Jack.  I think that first-hand reports like yours are very helpful. 

Taken together, they could provide a more complete picture of the sitution in Bangkok and beyond.

Be well.

Just now, Bkk Brian said:

You already told me you don' live here  maybe thats why

 I never said that Brian. 

Just musing that, if I were living in Thailand, I would want some empirical evidence of the Covid disaster you all claim it to be.

1 hour ago, anchadian said:

You make me laugh TaoNow, criticizing other members and telling them to clarify the Covid-19 situation.

 

You being an outsider. i.e not resident in Thailand, I doubt you would do the necessary checking if you were here.

 

There's a name for you, but it would be foolish to mention it on this forum.

 

 

How do you know I am not a resident? 

I am not challenging the truth of what others post, just asking for evidence.

And appealing for calm and circumspection. 

Perhaps you could use some too?

3 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I do enjoy a bit of sarcasm and humour in my posts as it helps keep the mood up.I'm usually critical of name callers who use name calling as a primary weapon in a debate.I can take any side in a debate to explore more possibilities so probably best not to take to seriously in anything I say.I also have as long as I can remember liked to ask questions particularly annoying ones most of us shy away from.You can make all the judgement or even speculate on my  stance on the best way to handle the pandemic.There are some of us here that swear they've already had the virus and it has been discussed ad infinitum.As for speculation perhaps you'll enlighten me as to why it's unwise to speculate and why are you telling me this?And when has wisdom had anything to do with a covid debate?

I've already checked the hospitals and the ones I checked are all full as I've already 

mentioned and have been for 20 years that I've been checking, perhaps you thought I was joking well think again as I've been a regular visitor to hospitals.I actually thought you were joking when you first proposed this idea then I realised you were actually serious.

As for the "network of followers" I like your style of humour so I'll pay that one.About the only sense I get with this pandemic in Thailand is Thailand is ranked 104th for transparency and corruption.I'm not going to get a true sense of the pandemic here and very few others will either no matter how many hospital beds I look at.See when the name calling stops we can discuss things.

 

Farflung:  Thank you for your thoughtful response. 

Could you please name the Thai hospitals you have been monitoring for bed occupancy so that we don't have duplication, whereby TV members go to the same place?

The most efficient approach would be if we had about 50 TV members covering all regions of the country reporting bed occupancy rates, perhaps on weekly basis, and only when a significant change occurs.

1 minute ago, meltonpie said:

Network?

I'm not suggesting the figures are bogus but I am suggesting that they are not robust enough.

Anyone going to a hospital at the moment without a medical need would be behaving very irresponsibly and they would be able to learn nothing about how many people that haven't presented had the virus.

 You can check the bed occupancy figures by asking your extensive network of Thai friends and relatives to ask the nurses and doctors at the local hospital. 

You and your pals do not need to go there.

Stay safe, Melton

3 minutes ago, meltonpie said:

I thought we had reached some agreement based on your relentless comments about Thailand having a positivity rate of 5% ?

The link I provided yesterday from Johns Hopkins suggests that this is a level that actually requires testing to be stepped up.  I thought you had acknowledged that?

So, why does Thailand choose not to?

Is it that they don't want to spend the money? To me it would seem a wise investment.  get a real grip on what is happening take fast appropriate measures, including ramping up vaccinations and try to get the economy moving again instead of death by a thousand cuts.

Is it that they do not wish to show an increase in infections (for whatever reason)?  This is perplexing - would this be about saving face?

Is it that they do not have the capacity to do much more?  If this is the case they should invest in more for the same reasons I have already mentioned.  The concerning thing here is that they must clearly be doing a lot more testing in prisons. Does that mean that have to cut back elsewhere?

It seems to me that for all the talk of reopenings, sandboxes, starting international travel etc etc unless they can get a real fix about what is happening and be able to demonstrate it with robust data the situation will continue along the same lines for some time.  This wave has proven that Thais are not immune so they need to learn from the mistakes that have happened elsewhere and from the seemingly upbeat data regarding vaccinations.

Leaving the number of new infections and deaths aside, the Thai Government needs to do a whole pile more in order to kick start the economy.

My prediction - the numbers will come down (maybe through manipulation/lack of robustness), places will open up, the numbers will rise, places will close, rinse and repeat. Whatever the medical consequences the impact on income and business will be even more devastating.

 

 

Melton: 

All good points. 

But, instead of complaining and speculating, why not go out and check for yourself?  

You and your network of TV members could quickly clarify the Covid epidemic situation by visiting hospitals in your neighborhood and report bed occupancy rates.

That would be the most effective action you could take to prove that the government data on Covid infections are bogus.

Godspeed

5 hours ago, daveAustin said:

Might have something to do with just about every other country is testing appropriately. Numbers are flat because they’re at their capacity. Eg — hypothetical 10% infection rate: test 100 people out of 1000 what’s the max you’d expect?

Dave: you are so right.

We really need more TV members like you to check out the bed occupancy rate of their local hospital in Thailand.

Only that way can we prove that the government data on Covid test results are bogus.

Please report back soonest.

2 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Yes that's right. Possibly 'fake news' but let's see. These things take time to come out. Again talk or speculation about this should end here.

And dinsdale, I think you have already admitted to posting fake news on this forum.  Shame, there.

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Bangkok opens 6th field hospital as virus spreads to 16 districts

The Ratchaphiphat 2 field hospital is located in the temple school at Wat Si Sudaram Worawihan in Bangkok Noi, which is one of 16 districts battling cluster outbreaks across the capital.

 

"This is the first field hospital to open inside a temple with strict measures to contain the spread of Covid-19, including wastewater and garbage management," Aswin said.

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40001058

 Yes, Brian, this is prudent, since any Covid-positive has to go to quarantine regardless of symptoms or none, unlike, I presume, the UK?

So, just monitor the field hospital bed occupancy rate to see what the situation is.   

That is not too "late in the game" wouldn't you say?

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Tragic news, one will never know how long she would have survived without the virus effecting her. Her family must be distraught.

Yes, Brian.  The Covid virus is the source of all evils, isn't it?

4 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

I didn't go to the hospital. Are you kidding. Dangerous place. 

So you were a liar after all?

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

The UK strain is scientifically proven to be far more contagious so any risk assessment should be squarely based on that. 

 

You're right the world numbers are declining thankfully and thats a fair point that India has an impact on. As will be the UK after its harsh lockdowns and vaccine roll outs which eventually curbed the UK variant, the US and other large nations.

 

Thailand is not doing mass vaccinations yet so until it is then the virus is able to spread at will. With Bangkok out of control the other provinces which have been able to contain the virus could also be susceptible to people traveling from Bangkok. We only need a few cases to start it up again in any province, with the lack of more testing this is even more significant.

 

I think the health workers here do an excellent job, my concern is with the politics getting in the way of health advice.

 Careful, Brian...Bangkok is not yet "out of control." 

2 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Care to name those in the "doom tribe" so they can defend themselves in the open against hints and allegations?Otherwise we don't know of whom you are asking the question.

I'll name you for starters.

5 hours ago, Megasin1 said:

I find it strange that a drop in 16 ICU beds is spun as positive in the post and can't believe its true. If 35 died then surely the ICU bed take-up has actually gone up by 19......

Exactly. 

Please go and check out the hospital in your locality to see what the bed occupancy rate is.   

If enough TV members around the country do this, then we may be able to get an accurate reading on the situation, week to week. 

Please pass the word.