TallGuyJohninBKK

I keep hearing that, and then I think back to before I was born of what people went thru during the FIVE years or so of deprivations during the course of World War II (blackouts, food rationing, curfews, huge death and injury tolls, etc etc...). And it strikes me that too many people nowadays have become too impatient and insistent on quick solutions to problems that aren't always quickly solved, and lack the sustained will and resolve to persevere against adversities, even when it involves following relatively simple protections like wearing face masks and getting vaccine boosters. Nick Beauchamp, assistant professor of political science at Northeastern University... "wishes local authorities would go back to announcing rising cases instead of burying their heads in the sand and remaining silent. And masking is such a small, simple request, he said. ... “People are like, ‘Oh my god, you’re saying we have to wear masks for three months out of the year?’ The answer is, 'We do that for a few more years, and hopefully we have it under control, it goes down to low case levels.'” https://fortune.com/2022/04/16/next-covid-wave-probably-here-america-ignoring-everybody-sick-of-covid-delta-omicron-pi-coronavirus-fauci-johns-hopkins-ba1-ba2-variant-voc-voi-wild-type As for California: https://newsnodes.com/us

My translation is that graphic is a bit different, in that my reading of it says... of Sunday's 124 new COVID deaths, 109 or 88% were not fully vaccinated (though I'm not sure how they're defining that) And then separately, 123 of those same 124 deaths were EITHER age 60 and above OR people under age 60 with chronic health conditions. The actual numbers for that were 111 deaths age 60 and above, and 12 deaths under age 60 with chronic health conditions.

they're two different data points that MoPH has issued at different times in different settings. Also, you're not accounting for the time element... how long after two doses does that deaths protection hold? And the MoPH report on that didn't seem to provide a clear time answer. One thing the third dose booster shots do is pretty much restore the infection and death/illness protections that have waned over time back to similar peak levels a person would have just after the two original shots... But without the booster, 6 months after the original shots, they wouldn't still have those same levels of protection. That's why people in general should get boosted, and that's the general advice of public health authorities. And that's probably why MoPH calls out the 3rd dose booster shot issue in their daily COVID death reports, because by now, it's already been a long time since most people received their two original doses...and their best current protection, to the extent it exists, is going to come from a booster shot.

They haven't been reporting those additional details in their daily updates. But they did recently come forth with this: https://aseannow.com/topic/1256847-thailand-reports year-high-record total-of-119-new-covid-19-deaths/?do=findComment&comment=17307139 The Ministry of Public Health today released data on what it said has been the effectiveness of vaccinations in both preventing COVID infections and deaths during the Omicron wave from January through March, based on tracking data from the Chiang Mai province. Two shots (so-called fully vaccinated): not effective in preventing infections, but did prevent more than 85% of deaths. Three shots including booster: 34% to 68% effective in preventing infections, and 98% to 99% in preventing deaths. Four shots including two boosters: 80% to 82% effective in preventing infections, and no deaths reported thus far among this group. One limitation of the above report is they didn't clearly spell out how much time had passed between the vaccinations and the reported result monitoring. As has been much cited here previously, the vaccines tend to have pretty good rates against infection during the first couple months, but then that protection drops off pretty markedly thereafter. On the other hand, most studies show greater protection (higher percentages) against serious illness and death that doesn't seem to decline as much or as fast as the infection protection. But not a lot of clear data yet on just how long the death/illness protections remain substantial, given the relatively recent arrival of Omicron.

The official COVID case counts here are far more removed from reality (as in vastly undercounted)...than the death stats ever have been. One government COVID advisor even has publicly said the real daily case counts could be in the 100,000 per day range as opposed to the -+ 25,000 they had been officially reporting. https://www.thaipbsworld.com/ccsa-advisor-claims-thailands-daily-infections-could-be-as-high-as-100000/ "Dr. Udom’s estimated figure of 100,000 a day takes into account those who have not been tested and is based on the increasing number of patients on ventilators and with lung inflammations, as well as COVID-related deaths." As I've said many times here, the trends of reported COVID deaths and serious hospitalizations here are a far better indicator of what's going on with COVID in Thailand than the general, official case counts.

From yesterday's update by the Ministry of Public Health: 116 of the 124 COVID deaths reported Monday (93%) were people who had NOT received their third dose COVID booster vaccine. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/544308793854116/?type=3 The MoPH will do a similar update regarding today's 129 reported COVID deaths later in the day. But pretty much every day, the non booster dose COVID deaths have been accounting for 90+% of the daily totals.

The various studies and reports have been cited here many times clearly showing significantly increased levels of "excess mortality" occurring in Thailand and many other countries around the world that experts say is clearly related to COVID. The actual numbers of officially reported COVID deaths worldwide have been estimated to be about one-third of the actual totals. Denying the reality isn't going to make it go away. https://aseannow.com/topic/1253090-covid-19-thailand-reports-24792-new-coronavirus-cases-63-deaths-22065-recoveries/?do=findComment&comment=17240220

The U.S. and many Americans there, now with a reversal and once again rising COVID cases, are suffering from COVID fatigue. And it sounds quite a bit like a lot of the comments often heard here: The COVID wave America doesn’t care about: ‘Everybody is sick of COVID’ ... "On Thursday the U.S. had a seven-day [daily] average of nearly 42,000 cases, according to the Johns Hopkins University and Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center dashboard, based on U.S. Department of Health and Human Services data—up 6,000 cases from a week ago and 14,000 cases from two weeks ago. ... This week Philadelphia announced a return of its mask mandate starting Monday, citing rising cases. It’s a move that seems unlikely at this stage of the pandemic from many other governmental entities, said [Dr. Stuart] Ray, [vice chair of medicine for data integrity and analytics at Johns Hopkins’ Department of Medicine]. “At a governmental level it’s increasingly hard to push mandates,” he said. “I get a sense folks don’t have much appetite for broad mandates.” (more) https://fortune.com/2022/04/16/next-covid-wave-probably-here-america-ignoring-everybody-sick-of-covid-delta-omicron-pi-coronavirus-fauci-johns-hopkins-ba1-ba2-variant-voc-voi-wild-type AND Americans shrug off latest rise in Covid cases Politicians show little appetite for further restrictions despite warnings by medical authorities "Covid-19 cases are once more on the rise in the US, but this time there is little impetus for new restrictions or funding to help combat them. ... Unlike in other waves, however, the US policy response has so far been muted, with Congress still wrangling over $10bn in extra pandemic spending and mask mandates largely abandoned. Dr Ezekiel Emanuel, a medical professor at the University of Pennsylvania and a former Covid adviser to US President Joe Biden, said: “We want this thing to be over, but it is not over. If we do not do things like reintroducing mask mandates it would be a big mistake.” (more) https://www.ft.com/content/49310d3a-dbb6-4ca0-a907-24d03f60c44f

The Ministry of Public Health announced some weeks back that they were reviewing and revising their COVID death reporting policies to ensure that only deaths caused by COVID, as determined by the treating doctors, are being reported as such. If you think about it, the government absolutely has no reason to deliberately inflate COVID death statistics here... If anything, their self-interest would be to minimize them. https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40013255

Thailand began its post Songkran New Year’s holidays period Tuesday by setting another year-high record of 129 new daily COVID deaths, although the number of serious condition hospitalized COVID patients declined slightly from yesterday’s year-high total to 2,104. Tuesday’s update by the Ministry of Public Health, covering deaths and cases through Monday, was the first regular business day report post the Thai New Year’s holidays. The 129 new deaths, reported today from Monday, just surpassed the prior year-high number of 128 reported on Sunday. The 2,104 COVID patients hospitalized in serious condition dropped slightly from the year record-high 2,123 reported yesterday. Tuesday marked Thailand’s 10th consecutive day of 100-plus daily COVID deaths and the fifth consecutive day of serious hospitalizations at 2,000 or more. Among the serious condition hospitalized patients, those in the worst condition who have required intubation in order to breathe, also increased by one to 940 and set another year-high record, up from 939 yesterday. The new COVID deaths and year-high serious hospitalizations came despite the country reporting its lowest daily number of new COVID cases of the past week at 16,891 and also the lowest of the past week number of total active cases under care at 197,349 – although both numbers are considered likely major undercounts due to unreported cases and lack of testing. Almost all of Thailand's official COVID-related daily statistics reported by the government -- except for deaths and serious hospitalizations -- have been steadily declining during the past week leading up to the just completed Songkran New Year's holidays that typically are a slowdown period for the entire country. But now, health officials are preparing for what they fear may be a coming crush of increased cases after the holidays, during which many Thais traveled home to visit with their extended families, thus creating greater risks for the spread of the virus. For context, during the peak of the Delta wave last fall, Thailand's daily COVID case count topped out at 23,418, but the numbers of serious hospital cases and the intubated share of those peaked above 5,600 and 1,100 respectively, and daily deaths topped 300 for a brief period. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/544771640474498 https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/?dashboard=main

Thailand on Monday reported 124 new COVID deaths, its ninth consecutive day of 100-plus COVID death tolls but four deaths fewer than yesterday, and another year-high record of 2,123 COVID patients hospitalized in serious condition. The 124 new COVID deaths was Thailand’s third highest COVID daily death toll of the year, surpassed only by the 128 reported yesterday and the 125 reported on Saturday. The 2,123 COVID patients hospitalized in serious condition surpassed the prior year-high record of 2,079 set only yesterday, and that count now has risen for five days in a row. Among the serious condition hospitalized patients, those in the worst condition who have required intubation in order to breathe, also increased to 939 and set another year-high record, up from 911 yesterday. The new COVID deaths and year-high serious hospitalizations came despite the country reporting its lowest daily number of official new COVID cases of the past week at 16,994 and also the lowest of the past week number of total active cases under care at 205,514 – although both numbers are considered likely major undercounts due to unreported cases and lack of testing. Almost all of Thailand's official COVID-related daily statistics reported by the government -- except for deaths and serious hospitalizations -- have been steadily declining during the past week leading up to the just completed Songkran New Year's holidays that typically are a slowdown period for the entire country. But now, health officials are preparing for what they fear may be a coming crush of increased cases after the holidays, during which many Thais traveled home to visit with their extended families, thus creating greater risks for the spread of the virus. For context, during the peak of the Delta wave last fall, Thailand's daily COVID case count topped out at 23,418, but the numbers of serious hospital cases and the intubated share of those peaked above 5,600 and 1,100 respectively, and daily deaths topped 300 for a brief period. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/544179683867027 https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/?dashboard=main

Interesting international comparisons chart today from the MoPH... Even with COVID deaths rising here on almost a daily basis to new highs for the year, Thailand (at 11 deaths per 1 million population during the past week) still has a lower current per capita COVID death rate than.... ...Greece (45), South Korea (35), the UK and Austria (22 each), New Zealand (20), Italy (16), and France and Germany (13 each). The UK per capita COVID deaths rate right now is one of the highest among major world countries, including triple that of the U.S. and double that of Thailand according to the chart below... And yet Brits here are regularly posting that everything is peachy in the UK... https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/543618207256508/?type=3 Not so peachy... (these numbers below from Our World in Data are also per capita, but on a different scale, looking at seven-day-average daily new COVID deaths per million population): Source weblink Highest number of Covid deaths recorded for over a year It comes as the number of deaths, by 7-day average, is increasing across the nation "The UK has recorded the highest number of Covid deaths in more than a year - since February 17th 2021. The latest figures, which show deaths within 28 days of a positive test by the date recorded, saw a spike of 651 deaths on Tuesday (April 13). It comes as the number of deaths, by 7-day average, is increasing across the nation. This is despite cases and hospital admissions continuing to fall up and down the UK." https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/highest-number-covid-deaths-recorded-23698614

I could ask you the same question in terms of some source for the claims you're making above. There was a time, prior to Omicron, when the health authorities speculated that herd immunity might be reached with the coronavirus. But since the advent of Omicron, everything I've seen and read pretty much discounts that now as a practical reality, at least with the current variant. No one that I know of, who's credible, is saying these days, gee, if we could just get more people infected, this whole thing would go away. February 25, 2022 What is the “herd immunity” definition? "According to experts, herd immunity is “when a significant portion of a population becomes immune to an infectious disease,” slowing disease spread. Experts doubt that we will ever reach herd immunity for COVID-19. Many people in the U.S. and around the world remain unvaccinated, giving the SARS-CoV2 virus a chance to spread and mutate." https://www.goodrx.com/conditions/covid-19/covid-19-herd-immunity AND Here's the study that I was referring to: From the linked news report: No indication of herd immunity "Even at 80% total immunity [in some countries], there was no indication of an abrupt decline of infections, which the researchers said suggests no clear indication of herd immunity in the data." And from the study itself: "The cumulative proportion of the population ever infected varied greatly between countries and territories, with rates higher than 70% in 40 countries and lower than 20% in 39 countries. There was no discernible relationship between Reffective and total immunity, and even at total immunity levels of 80%, we observed no indication of an abrupt drop in Reffective, indicating that there is not a clear herd immunity threshold observed in the data."

Regarding your point #1: More than 60% of Thailand's population, including the most vulnerable segment of senior citizens, has NOT received a third dose COVID booster vaccine that's required to best combat the Omicron variant. So, exactly how is that kind of specific vaccination rate in Thailand going to be the "way forward" for the time being? Regarding your point #3: There was a study reported here in the past week that looked at COVID exposure rates in various countries, including some where the immunity rate was up to 80 percent, and that did not lead to a major falloff in infections. Thus the authors concluded "herd immunity" isn't likely to occur with the current variant.

With the added update today from MoPH: --COVID intubations at 911 have now reached 78% of their all-time peak of 1,172 that occurred during the Delta wave last August. --serious COVID hospitalizations at 2,079 have now reached 37% of their all-time peak of 5,626 that occurred during the Delta wave last August. --And current COVID deaths at 128 per day have now reached 41% of their all-time peak of 312 that occurred during the Delta wave last August. The other thing to note is, the 2021 peaks were the culmination of months of gradually increasing tallies before they finally reached a peak and began to decline. The 2022 death and hospitalization tallies are still on their upward trend, and no clear indication when a peak will be reached.

MoPH Update for Sunday, April 17: Another new year-high record of 128 new COVID deaths, and also another new year-high record of 2,079 serious condition COVID hospitalizations. The prior year-high records were 125 new COVID deaths yesterday, and 2,065 serious condition COVID hospitalizations set last Monday. Sunday marked Thailand eighth consecutive day of 100+ new daily COVID deaths, and the fifth consecutive day of increasing death tolls. The count of serious COVID hospitalizations has risen for the past four days in a row. In addition, among the serious condition COVID cases, those in the worst condition, patients requiring intubation to breathe, also increased again to also set a new year-high record of 911, surpassing the prior record of 885 set last Tuesday. Even as new deaths and serious hospitalizations mounted, the numbers of official new COVID cases (17,775) and current active cases under care (214,554) both continued declining to their lowest levels of the past week -- although those numbers are widely considered major undercounts and likely influenced by the national slowdown during the Songkran New Year's holidays. For context, during the peak of the Delta wave last fall, Thailand's daily COVID case count topped out at 23,418, but the numbers of serious hospital cases and the intubated share of those peaked above 5,600 and 1,100 respectively, and daily deaths topped 300 for a brief period. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/543511200600542 https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/?dashboard=main

Good question! Probably because a] it would take a lot of time and effort to train them, and b] there wasn't likely a ton of profit to be made from the effort, it didn't end up becoming any big deal in Thailand or elsewhere, at least AFAIK.

I believe, that was not from the government per se, but from one advisor to the MoPH... And I believe, his reference wasn't to the future of official cases,, but instead in suggesting that the current actual, real numbers of infections NOW might be 100,000 per day if every one of them was caught and counted.

FWIW, I saw various social media videos in the past two days of younger Thais out partying at big Songkran gatherings... And in the videos I saw, pretty much no one was wearing face masks as they all crammed in together in close quarters in the various venues. They, being late teens and 20 somethings, might not be at great health risk should they contract COVID. But the same can't be said of their parents and grandparents when they later go home and gather with family members for Songkran. To me, at least, under the circumstances, it seems like pretty thoughtless behavior.

Your comment above reminds me about the story, by way of a COVID analogy, about putting a live frog in a pot of water, and turning on the stove to cook. The frog doesn't notice anything's amiss as the water gradually keeps getting warmer and then hotter and hotter... Until by the time the frog notices, it's already too late and the frog is dead and cooked.

More from Johns Hopkins on why so-called "herd immunity" is likely never to happen with COVID in its current form: "CUMULATIVE INFECTIONS As of mid-November 2021—prior to the emergence of the highly transmissible Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2—about 44% of the global population had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 at least once, according to a report published last week in The Lancet. However, the cumulative proportion of the population ever infected varied widely between countries and territories, with 40 countries having rates higher than 70% and 39 countries with rates lower than 20%. Notably, the effective reproduction number was not associated with these rates, even when total immunity levels were 80%, showing that there is no clear herd immunity threshold at this time." https://myemail.constantcontact.com/COVID-19-Updates---April-14--2022.html

FDA authorizes COVID breath test for emergency use "The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) yesterday authorized for emergency use the first COVID-19 test based on breath samples, a system that looks for chemical signatures of infection and can provide a result in about 3 minutes. ... In its announcement yesterday, the FDA said the device, from Texas-based InspectIR, is about the size of a piece of carry-on luggage and is designed for use in settings such as doctor's offices, hospitals, and testing sites. Testing is done by qualified, trained operators under the supervision of licensed healthcare providers. ... The FDA said a large study found 91.2% sensitivity [the percent of positive samples the test correctly identified] and 99.3% specificity [the percent of negative samples the test correctly identified] for the test. A follow-up study that focused the Omicron variant found similar sensitivity results." https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/04/fda-authorizes-covid-breath-test-emergency-use No mention made in the FDA's announcement of just how much these little machines are going to be priced at... But the announcement did say... InspectIR expects to be able to produce approximately 100 instruments per week, which can each be used to evaluate approximately 160 samples per day.

1. Who, other than adult entertainment venues, is "locked down" in Thailand right now? Most of the country is open and operating more or less normally, except for the lack of the past normal numbers of foreign tourists. 2. A study just earlier this week found that so-called "herd immunity" just isn't going to happen with the Omicron variant because it's too easily spread/ too infectious, and that places that even had up to 80% past exposure and immunization didn't see dramatic declines in cases.

It would seem you're not bothering to read these daily threads very closely, since EVERY daily COVID update I've written here for months now has included the following paragraph: "For added context, during the peak of the Delta wave last fall, Thailand's daily COVID case count topped out at 23,418, but the numbers of serious hospital cases and the intubated share of those peaked above 5,600 and 1,100 respectively, and daily deaths topped 300 for a brief period. " I would agree that we don't often see that kind of context in the Thai media news reporting. But people reading here definitely do get it... contrary to your comments above. And in that regard, right now: --COVID intubations at 867 have now reached 74% of their all-time peak of 1,172 that occurred during the Delta wave last August. --serious COVID hospitalizations at 2,062 have now reached 37% of their all-time peak of 5,626 that occurred during the Delta wave last August. --And current COVID deaths at 125 per day have now reached 40% of their all-time peak of 312 that occurred during the Delta wave last August. The other difference being, the current numbers are on their way up, and are expected to continue rising in the weeks ahead as the expected surge of Songkran holiday cases and resulting illnesses and deaths work their way thru the system. The MoPH has said they could expect 50,000 cases per day and more than 250 deaths per day in the coming weeks... We'll have to wait and see how that plays out. It's also worth noting that the supposedly mild Omicron variant actually led to MORE overall COVID hospitalizations in the U.S. at its peak at the beginning of this year compared to the peak of the Delta variant last fall... (Thailand, unfortunately, does not publicly report that same kind of data.} And that's because while Omicron's symptoms may generally be milder, it also tends to infect many more people, a share of whom still get sick and die. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html