TallGuyJohninBKK

Newly reported official COVID cases (24,252) and new COVID deaths (94) both increased on Wednesday over the prior day but remained below record high levels for the year, while serious COVID hospitalizations declined slightly from the prior day’s record high to 1,845. Total COVID cases under care in Thailand also declined for the day to 248,078, down from the year high of 259,126 set last Sunday. The 24,252 new official cases on Wednesday rose from the 21,088 reported Tuesday, but remained well off Thailand’s yearly high of 28,379 from last Friday. The 94 new COVID deaths reported Wednesday was an increase from the 91 reported Tuesday, but remained below the year high figure of 97 from last Sunday and Monday. Serious COVID cases in hospitals declined from the year-high 1,862 reported Tuesday to 1,845 on Wednesday. In a related item, the number of COVID patients hospitalized and requiring intubation to breathe rose by one to 782 on Wednesday, setting a new high for the year. Compared to data from one week ago, Wednesday's new cases count was lower, but daily fatalities, serious hospitalizations and total cases under care were all higher. All in all, Wednesday's report by the Ministry of Public Health was typical for a midweek COVID update, with mid-range new case numbers that usually rise later in the week heading into the weekend. For added context, during the peak of the Delta wave last fall, Thailand's daily COVID case count topped out at 23,418, but the numbers of serious hospital cases and intubated patients peaked above 5,600 and 1,100 respectively, and daily deaths topped 300 for a brief period. https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/?dashboard=main https://www.facebook.com/LiveNBT2HD/posts/3302962740025722

1. There's been no decision by the Thai government to start charging people, including expats, to pay for COVID vaccines. All the government-provided vaccines thus far have been provided for free. 2. As to your question about why... the article you cited provides the answer: "although protection against severe disease, hospitalization and death holds strong." "However, the researchers also found that protection against hospitalization and death remained above 90%." FWIW, the news report you cited is from October 2021, which was during the Delta variant wave and prior to the current Omicron wave.

I think the intended point of his message was... people will end up getting COVID update shots annually, just like annual flu shots or people who buy a new IPhone every year.

Interesting tidbit... Look what country is generating the most foreigners testing positive for COVID upon arrival, in today's update from MoPH: https://www.facebook.com/OICDDC/posts/342658354562324 UK also was tops in number of COVID case arrivals from the two days prior reports. But Saudi Arabia and Cambodia were the tops of the list in the two days prior to that. The numbers probably are at least in part a reflection of the origins of arriving international flights and passenger volumes day to day. Going back even further, there doesn't seem to be any particular trend day to day in the top countries on the list, although Cambodia is tops on quite a few recent days.

China update: Shanghai to extend lockdown of 26 million people as it reviews COVID test results ... The curbs, which have massively disrupted daily life and business operations in China's financial hub, were initially scheduled to end at 5 a.m. local time (9 p.m. GMT) on Tuesday. ... The country sent the military and thousands of healthcare workers into Shanghai to help carry out COVID-19 tests for all of its 26 million residents on Monday, in one of the country's biggest-ever public health responses. ... Shanghai, which began a two-stage lockdown on March 28 that has been expanded to confine practically all residents to their homes, reported 8,581 asymptomatic COVID-19 cases and 425 symptomatic COVID cases for April 3. (more) https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-sends-military-doctors-shanghai-test-26-mln-residents-covid-2022-04-04/

Daily COVID new deaths report from the Thai MoPH: --All Thais except for one Myanmar national. --Median age 72, meaning half the deaths were older, and half were younger. --Age range 5 months to 96 years --67 of the deaths (74%) were age 60 and older --18 of the the deaths (19%) were younger than age 60 but had some type of chronic condition. --6 of the deaths (7%) were under age 60 with no known chronic condition. By province, 17 of the deaths occurred in Bangkok, while 6 each occurred in Sisaket and Lopburi provinces. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/535858771365785

Moderna CEO predicts many people will eventually get annual COVID shots "CEO Stephane Bancel of Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) predicted Monday that many adults will eventually receive annual COVID boosters, while the vaccine maker hopes to create yearly all-in-one shots for multiple diseases the way Apple unveils new iPhones each year. "Our first priority is to get an annual iPhone-like booster for all respiratory diseases," Bancel said in a speech to the Boston College Chief Executives Club. ... As such, Bancel expects the company to have annual COVID boosters available beginning this fall to protect people from new virus variants like Omicron. (more) https://seekingalpha.com/news/3820563-moderna-ceo-predicts-many-people-will-eventually-get-annual-covid-booster-shots

As I regularly mention in my recaps of the MoPH daily COVID reports, they are subject to the vagaries of the Thai government reporting system. That's why I always say looking at the deaths and serious hospitalizations is a better barometer of the way things are trending. That, and, the past two-week trend reports the MoPH has been producing lately, which report the numbers of daily cases based on a two-week running average of new daily cases, such as the latest below for March 23 to April 5. The raw numbers of cases clearly are likely an undercount due to non-reported cases. But the trend lines (except for today's latest deaths number) are clearly and consistently upward. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/535854894699506/?type=3 From left to right in the chart above, daily new official COVID cases based on a 14-prior days running average, current serious hospitalizations, current intubations, and daily new COVID deaths. The red text at the bottom of the far right graph says that 85 of today's new 91 COVID deaths (93%) had NOT received their third dose COVID booster shot.

Newly reported official COVID cases declined for a fourth consecutive day to 21,088 on Tuesday, while new deaths declined to 91, but serious hospitalizations rose again to a new yearly high of 1,862. Tuesday's results reported by the Ministry of Public Health followed a familiar pattern of newly reported daily case numbers easing on the weekends and early in the week, but then at least in recent weeks, later climbing to new highs as the week progresses. The 21,088 new cases reported Tuesday followed declines from the yearly peak of 28,379 reported last Friday. Tuesday's 91 new deaths were a decline from the year high totals of 97 set on both Sunday and Monday. The total number of active COVID cases also declined to 250,145, down from the year's high of 259,126 set last Sunday. Tuesday's increase in COVID cases hospitalized in serious condition was relatively small, climbing only four cases from Monday's prior yearly high of 1,858. Meanwhile, the number of hospitalized COVID patients requiring intubation to breathe also rose to 781 and set a new high for the year, up 12 cases from Monday's prior high. Tuesday's new COVID cases tally was, in some good news, slightly lower than the comparable figure from one week ago. But total current cases, daily deaths, intubations and serious hospitalizations were all higher than one week ago. Official COVID case counts are at best a low-end approximation in Thailand, where many cases go unreported, and are subject to typical upward swings during the week and declines during weekend periods, although serious hospitalization figures are likely a more reliable indicator of current COVID trends. For added context, during the peak of the Delta wave last fall, Thailand's daily COVID case count topped out at 23,418, but the numbers of serious hospital cases and intubated patients peaked above 5,600 and 1,100 respectively, and daily deaths topped 300 for a brief period. https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/?dashboard=main https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/535713751380287

My train will leave when the numbers of serious COVID hospitalizations and intubations, and new daily COVID deaths, start declining on a consistent basis, instead of continually reaching new yearly highs almost every day. My COVID opinions, very simply, are based on what's happening with those key stats, instead of simply ignoring them.

We've now officially entered the Twilight Zone of COVID stats: --Thailand now ranks 10th among all countries based on its total number of COVID cases in the past week. --Thailand has had more total official COVID cases in the past week than the United States, a country with almost five times its population, but fewer than the UK with a comparable population. --Thailand's per capita rate of new COVID cases during the past week (2,603 per 1 mn population) is five times that of the U.S. (500), but almost half of the UK's per capita case rate (4,838). --But Thailand is looking better when it comes to COVID deaths in the past week per 1 mn population: --Thailand -- 9 --U.S. -- 10 --U.K. -- 14 That ranking could change soon, however, as COVID deaths in the U.S. have continued falling in recent weeks, while those in Thailand have been steadily rising. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106142991004034/535268771424785/?type=3

And now another entrant in the COVID alphabet soup contest -- XE. (I wonder if there will end up being an XO strain, which might prove very popular in Thailand! ???? ): "The UK Health Services Agency said Omicron XE is 10% more transmissible than BA.2 and 43% more transmissible than the original Omicron (BA.1) variant."

At least, the Thai govt. is SAYING the right things to try to get more people boosted with a third vaccine dose... even though progress has been exceedingly slow... https://www.facebook.com/thailandprd/posts/341237074705776 https://www.facebook.com/thailandprd/posts/342295301266620 "According to the data collected in Chiang Mai by the Faculty of Public Health in Chiang Mai University and the Chiang Mai Provincial Public Health Office, the effectiveness of booster vaccine shots during the spread of Omicron from January to February 2022 is as follows: 2. Three doses of vaccine can prevent 45-68 percent of Omicron infections; 3. Four doses of vaccine can prevent 82 percent of infections. As for fatalities, vaccination can prevent fatalities at the following rates: Two doses at 85-93 percent, three doses at 98 percent, and there is no report of the fatality rate for those who have four doses of vaccination."

AFAIK, Thailand has never tallied their COVID deaths based on that kind of a policy. You're talking about other countries.

As Thailand's COVID death toll nears 100 per day, the country is moving up on the comparatives chart of per capita COVID deaths compared to its Asian neighbors, according to today's update from the MoPH: South Korea and Brunei are higher, based on COVID deaths in the past week per million population, though Hong Kong would likely higher also if the chart broke out HK as a separate country, which it doesn't. After that, Thailand is tied with Malaysia. And all the other regional countries below have lower official COVID per capita death rates for the past week. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106142991004034/535268974758098/?type=3 How accurate are the official death numbers from some of those countries like Myanmar, China and Cambodia... who knows...

MoPH's latest past two weeks COVID trends chart (March 22-April 4), and everything is still headed upward, including year-high numbers of COVID deaths and serious hospitalizations. From left to right below: daily new official COVID cases based on a past two-week running average, serious condition COVID hospitalizations, COVID hospitalizations requiring intubation, and daily new COVD deaths. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106142991004034/535269041424758/?type=3 In the red text in the bottom right corner of the graphic, MoPH is saying 87 of today's 97 newly reported COVID deaths (90%) had NOT received their third shot vaccine booster dose.

63% or so of Thailand's senior citizen population has NOT received the third shot vaccine booster dose that is necessary to best protect against Omicron. And that's just barely better than the 65% of the overall population figure that likewise has not yet received their third shot booster dose. Your train is more than a bit early in leaving the station, based on that measurement. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106142991004034/535269141424748/?type=3

Prior research has found that Thailand's real total of COVID-related deaths during 2020 and 2021 likely were about 62% higher than the official figures -- based on excess mortality calculations looking at pre-COVID death levels. For Thailand, the study said the country likely had more than 35,000 COVID-related deaths for the two-year period, 62% higher than the 21,700 officially reported: http://www.thelancet-press.com/embargo/COVIDexcessmortality.pdf A separate study by the Economist (covering a later period from April 2020 thru Feb. 2022) found Thailand's deaths due to COVID likely were almost triple the officially reported figure. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates

There are two imported antiviral treatments Thailand is buying for people who have become infected with COVID that aim to prevent progression to serious illness -- paxlovid by Pfizer and molnupiravir by Merck. The study cited above was done by the manufacturer of molnupiravir, which is interesting considering the prior reporting that's been done comparing the effectiveness of the two, where paxlovid was shown as far more effective. November 29, 2021 Molnupiravir: Merck’s Covid-19 antiviral less effective in new analysis "Merck has provided updated data on its Covid-19 antiviral, molnupiravir, that shows the antiviral to be significantly less effective against the virus than previously thought. The new analysis, shared by the company on Friday, shows treatment with molnupiravir reduces hospitalisation or death by 30%. The drug’s efficacy is considerably lower than what was reported in interim analysis in October, when molnupiravir was said to reduce the risk of hospitalisation and death by around 50%." https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/molnupiravir-merck-antiviral-less-effective-new-analysis/ Paxlovid is said to be considerably better, with an effectiveness rate of almost 90%, if taken within five days of the start of symptoms: 12 Things To Know About Paxlovid, the Latest COVID-19 Pill "The drug, developed by Pfizer, appears to have a lot of positives: It had an 89% reduction in the risk of hospitalization and death in clinical trials, a number that was high enough to prompt the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to prioritize it over other COVID-19 treatments; it’s cheaper than many other COVID-19 drugs (it’s provided for free by the U.S. government while there is a public health emergency); and, perhaps most reassuring, it is expected to work against the Omicron variant. “I think it is the beginning of a ‘game-changer,’” says Scott Roberts, MD, a Yale Medicine infectious diseases specialist. “It's really our first efficacious oral antiviral pill for this virus. It shows clear benefit, and it really can prevent hospitalization and death in people who are at high risk.” https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/12-things-to-know-paxlovid-covid-19 However, Paxlovid also has substantial potential drug interaction issues: “For starters, Paxlovid is 88 percent effective at preventing hospitalization and death. But it also has six pages of drug interactions, including interactions that may require a patient to hold, change, or reduce doses of other medications." https://www.ama-assn.org/press-center/press-releases/ama-statement-administration-s-test-treat-covid-19-plan "The FDA has published a fact sheet for health care providers on Paxlovid. Much more than a sheet, it’s actually 29 pages crammed with facts – and 12 of those pages list potential side effects. Here’s the irony: Some of the preexisting conditions that make a COVID infection especially dangerous — such as high blood pressure, diabetes, heart failure and arrhythmias — often are treated with multiple medicines that could also make Paxlovid dangerous." https://www.inquirer.com/health/expert-opinions/paxlovid-pfizer-covid-19-heart-disease-20220202.html

Reflecting typical reduced case reporting from the weekends, Thailand on Monday reported 24,892 new COVID cases, but also tied its yearly high for new COVID deaths at 97 and once again set new yearly record highs for serious COVID hospitalizations. In Monday's update from the Ministry of Public Health, serious COVID hospitalizations increased by 20 to a new yearly high of 1,858, while COVID patients in hospital requiring intubation to breathe increased by 17 to a new yearly high of 769. Both figures have continued to set new yearly highs on an almost daily basis. Monday's 97 new COVID deaths matched the yearly record 97 reported on Sunday. That's eight times Thailand's daily number of COVID fatalities at the start of the year, and brought the country's official COVID pandemic death toll for 2022 to 3,814, and more than 25,000 since the start of the pandemic. Thailand also reported a decline in total current COVID cases under care to 256,667, still one of the highest figures for the year. Overall, compared to one week ago, Monday's report still showed increases in all major categories -- total new official COVID cases, new COVID deaths, total active cases, and serious COVID hospitalizations. Official COVID case counts are at best a low-end approximation in Thailand, where many cases go unreported, and are subject to typical upward swings during the week and declines during weekend periods, although serious hospitalization figures are likely a more reliable indicator of current COVID trends. For added context, during the peak of the Delta wave last fall, Thailand's daily COVID case count topped out at 23,418, but the numbers of serious hospital cases and intubated patients peaked above 5,600 and 1,100 respectively, and daily deaths topped 300 for a brief period. https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/?dashboard=main https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/535149814770014

Have you actually tested your TextNow number since you switched to their annual fee plan to see if in fact it does successfully receive bank-type SMS codes under that arrangement?

I read the full article. I didn't see in there any specific response to the main issue raised by the rural doctor's group, that on a given day, the ATK cases from just a few provinces almost equaled the entire total reported for the country...

What I took issue with in your original comment was its implication -- intended or not, that's how I perceived it -- that ONLY the very old and frail people can die/are dying from COVID... And while those may be the majority, they're certainly not the only ones. I'm just over 60 in age, not frail at all, and not in poor health. But the COVID data suggests that my age cohort/profile is at greater risk of COVID serious illness and death, particularly if unvaccinated, and to a lesser extent, even if only double vaxed. In short, Omicron CAN be a life/death issue for a variety of folks, not only the "really old and frail." Some people here -- and I'm not referring to you -- like to suggest that the only people dying from COVID are those who are already on death's door due to age or heath problems. And that's simply not true.

What you really are meaning in the above comment is... Covid is here to stay and we just need to DIE whit it! [as Thailand is now approaching 100 COVID deaths per day....] Sorry, but I don't accept that notion. Get the booster vaccine, wear quality face masks consistently and maintain social distancing... If everyone did those things, far fewer people would get sick and die from COVID. But too many people just aren't doing those simple things to curb the pandemic. And some aren't just not doing those things, but are advocating that there shouldn't be rules and policies that require or encourage those things that would help protect everyone.

The median age of COVID deaths here has been running in the 70s typically (73 yesterday), meaning half above that age and half below that age. So that doesn't quite equate to only "really old and frail." Also, my father, as one example, lived into his 90s, and was quite active until the very end. Don't think he and others similar would be too happy at the prospect of some people here writing them and the last 20 years of their lives off just because they got to be senior citizens. PS -- only 36% of Thailand's senior citizen population (age 60 and above) has thus far received their third shot COVID vaccine booster dose that's needed to best protect against Omicron. Almost TWO-THIRDS have not.