TallGuyJohninBKK

MoPH breakdown of the 63 new COVID deaths reported today: 37 males, 26 females 61 Thais, 1 American, 1 unknown Median age of 69, with age range from 28 to 93 --49 or78% were age 60 and older --11 or 17% were under age 60 with chronic conditions --3 or 5% were under age 60 with no chronic conditions Heart disease (15) and kidney disease and bedridden (9 each) were the most common chronic conditions reported among the deaths. Bangkok had the most deaths among individual provinces with 7. No mention of the vaccination status for these deaths. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/519888449629484/?type=3

The latest vaccination updates reported today: Only 31% of Thailand's overall population, and the same rate for the age 60 and older more vulnerable group, have thus far received the third shot booster dose that medical experts say is required to protect against the Omicron COVID variant. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/519888706296125/?type=3 https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/519888716296124/?type=3

The authors of the above study also noted that their estimate for Worldwide 2020-2021 COVID deaths was very close to a separate analysis done of the same by The Economist. The Economist, though, has periodically been updating their estimates, including in current time into 2022. They have a considerably higher excess deaths estimate for Thailand (59,540), notwithstanding the fact their estimate covers two additional months into 2022. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates

The study you cited above basically concludes that Worldwide COVID deaths during 2020 and 2021 were triple the officially reported figures -- 18 million in reality vs the nearly 6 million officially reported. "Findings: Although reported COVID-19 deaths between Jan 1, 2020, and Dec 31, 2021, totalled 5·94 million worldwide, we estimate that 18·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 17·1–19·6) people died worldwide because of the COVID-19 pandemic (as measured by excess mortality) over that period. ... At the country level, the highest numbers of cumulative excess deaths due to COVID-19 were estimated in India (4·07 million [3·71–4·36]), the USA (1·13 million [1·08–1·18]), Russia (1·07 million [1·06–1·08]), Mexico (798 000 [7 41 000–867 000]), Brazil (792 000 [730 000–847 000]), Indonesia (736 000 [594 000–955 000]), and P-akistan (664 000 [498 000–847 000])." As for Thailand, the study says the country had more than 35,000 COVID deaths for the two-year period, 62% higher than the 21,700 officially reported:

Apparently you missed the news this week that researchers have found that even MILD cases of COVID can cause people's brains to shrink/age up to 10 years worth of living. Deaths matter, of course, but they're not the only important indicator relating to COVID. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-07/brain-shrinkage-cognitive-decline-found-months-after-mild-covid

And two shots only is only minimally effective against the current Omicron variant, so that's not saying much. And the two-shot percentage nationwide is only 72%. But a more telling indicator is that 69% of Thailand's population thus far has NOT received the third shot booster dose that the medical experts say provides the best protection against Omicron. And that includes a similar share of the age 60 and older population that's the most vulnerable.

Thailand's COVID update on Friday offered a mixed bag of results, as officially reported cases reached their highest level of the past week at 24,792 and serious hospitalizations set another record high for the year at 1,255, but new daily deaths declined to 63. The drop in daily COVID deaths, from the prior day's yearly high of 74, came as Ministry of Public Health officials began talking about narrowing their definition of when to attribute a death to COVID. But it's unknown whether that plan influenced Friday's reporting. Among other updates, the numbers of unofficial COVID cases (21,626) based on positive ATK tests and thus combined official and unofficial cases (46,418) both declined from yearly record high levels set the day before. The total number of COVID patients under care increased for the day to 222,998, as did the number of COVID patients being treated in regular hospitals, which rose to 63,553. But both figures remained well below their respective record highs for the year. In one good indicator, the number of COVID patients in hospitals requiring ventilators to breathe dropped for the first time in the past week to 415, down from the prior day's yearly high of 420. https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/?dashboard=main For added context, during the peak of the Delta wave last fall, Thailand's daily COVID case count topped out at 23,418, but the numbers of serious hospital cases and intubated patients peaked above 5,600 and 1,100 respectively, and daily deaths topped 300 for a brief period.

More countering Russian propaganda: https://www.newsweek.com/us-biological-weapons-ukraine-labs-germ-warfare-1685956 "As part of its latest attempts to justify its invasion of Ukraine, Russian officials are once again pushing a false narrative that the Eastern European country is developing biological weapons with the assistance of the U.S. ... In April 2020, the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine also issued a statement ... The statement explained that the U.S. and Ukraine have had a partnership since 2005 to prevent the threat of outbreaks of infectious diseases, as well as allowing for peaceful research and vaccine development." ... Filippa Lentzos, a bioweapons researcher and faculty member at King's College of London, also told the Agency France-Presse news agency that there are no indications that these labs in Ukraine are being used to develop biological weapons and actually aim to prevent preventing disease outbreaks."

From what I'm reading on a quick look, while respiratory distress is a common, perhaps the most common symptom of serious COVID, it's not the only COVID symptom that ends up killing people. Add in heart failure, kidney failure, liver damage, strokes, etc... So it would seem that a Thailand policy decision to only count a COVID death as a COVID death when it involves respiratory distress is not in keeping with the medical realities of COVID. But, it would be one way to attempt to lower the country's COVID death statistics, now at their highest levels of the year, at a time when they're trying to head toward declaring COVID as "endemic" in status. Non-respiratory presentations of COVID-19, a clinical review "While the most fatal complications of COVID-19 include ARDS, heart failure, renal failure, liver injury, and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS), GI symptoms can contribute significantly to morbidity in infected patients [48]." ... "SARS-CoV-2 can have a profound impact on the renal system. Early research has determined that COVID-19 can directly infect kidney tubules and cause acute tubular damage and subsequent renal failure." ... "A large retrospective study of 221 patients with COVID-19 at the Union hospital in Wuhan found that 5% of patients presented with acute ischemic stroke, one patient developed cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST), and one had cerebral hemorrhage [127,128]." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7513760/

That's not the way I'm reading the report above. Rather, they seem to be saying they're now going to require evidence of pneumonia type lung inflammation or breathing problems as a requirement for classifying a death as COVID. I'd have to look and check as to whether that alone is a medically appropriate criteria for classifying a COVID death. "Anutin said the meeting discussed that when patients died while they were on a ventilator and died of lung inflammation caused by Covid-19 virus, they could be classified as Covid-19 deaths. .... There should be a clear-cut figure as to how many had died because of respiratory system failure or lung inflammations." https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40013255

"Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir and ritonavir) and molnupiravir are two oral antiviral treatments that are authorized to treat mild to moderate COVID-19. These COVID-19 pills are only recommended for people with a high risk of developing severe illness. ... They should both be started within five days of first feeling symptoms. Studies suggest that Paxlovid can lower the risk of severe COVID-19 for high-risk people by almost 90%. Studies suggest molnupiravir can lower this risk by about 30%." https://www.goodrx.com/conditions/covid-19/covid-19-pill-paxlovid-molnupiravir As for Paxlovid: "The co-packaged medication is indicated for the treatment of mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in people aged twelve years of age and older weighing at least 40 kilograms (88 lb) with positive results of direct SARS-CoV-2 testing, and who are at high risk for progression to severe COVID-19, including hospitalization or death.[5][6] If administered within five days of symptom onset, the efficacy of the co-packaged medication against hospitalization or death in adults is about 88% (95% CI, 75–94%).[7] ... The co-packaged medication is not authorized for the pre-exposure or post-exposure prevention of COVID-19 or for initiation of treatment in those requiring hospitalization due to severe or critical COVID-19." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir

"...the Public Health Ministry has ordered Covid-19 drugs from abroad. He said the first lot of Molnupiravir had arrived and officials are putting labels on the drug packages to be used for elderly or people with eight comorbidities in various hospitals. He said the ministry has yet to draft and sign a contract to buy Paxlovid drug, which is expected to be done next month." https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40013255 Well, at least they're finally getting around to ordering something from abroad that's been proven to work as a treatment in at least a share of COVID cases -- as opposed to their current medicines that, AFAIK, haven't been proven by credible research to do anything for COVID. And you have to wonder, why are they getting the least effective imported treatment FIRST (Molnupiravir-Merck), and lagging behind on the more effective imported treatment (Paxlovid-Pfizer)? See the widely different COVID efficacy rates for Paxlovid vs Molnupiravir in the next post below... ------------------------- "Molnupiravir... In December 2021, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted an emergency use authorization (EUA) to molnupiravir for use in certain populations where other treatments are not feasible.[7] The emergency use authorization was only narrowly approved (13-10) because of questions regarding efficacy and concerns that molnupiravir's mutagenic effects could create new variants that evade immunity and prolong the COVID-19 pandemic." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molnupiravir

The government should publicly report this kind of breakdown every day! Maybe that's what it will take to help get the message across. Especially for older people and those otherwise at risk, you need that third shot booster dose to protect against Omicron.

Only about 30% of Thailand's 60 and over population has been boosted -- two original vaccine shots plus a booster. But today's deaths report tells the story -- out of deaths, the largest share were entirely unvaccinated, and only 1% had been boosted.

Let's hope the Thailand COVID trends will be better come mid-April than they are right now, with yearly record highs continuing to be set almost every day. BANGKOK (NNT) - The government has assured that Songkran celebrations next month will be allowed to take place, while noting that health and safety precautions will still need to be taken. https://aseannow.com/topic/1252902-government-confirms-songkran-celebrations-to-proceed-next-month/

This was some more cheery news overnight: Covid Can Shrink the Brain as Much as a Decade of Aging, Study Finds "Even a mild case of Covid-19 can damage the brain and addle thinking, scientists found in a study that highlights the illness’s alarming impact on mental function. Researchers identified Covid-associated brain damage months after infection, including in the region linked to smell, and shrinkage in size equivalent to as much as a decade of normal aging. The changes were linked to cognitive decline in the study, which was published Monday in the journal Nature. " https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-07/brain-shrinkage-cognitive-decline-found-months-after-mild-covid

I seem to recall one of the government medical types complaining a while back that the rising volume of RT-PCR testing was getting to be very expensive for the government, which, you know, has had to spend a lot of the public's money on various other things like vaccines, etc etc.... I'm fine if they never do many RT-PCR tests ever again. BUT, if they're going to be honest about it (which seems unlikely to happen), then they at the same time should start counting positive ATK test results as "official" cases for record keeping and officialdom purposes.

"Covid-19 vaccines are now available at Bangkok’s Bang Sue Grand station, with no appointment necessary, regardless of which dose is required. The Central Vaccination Centre says inoculation is available to both Thais and foreigners, who can also choose which vaccine they want. ... The centre at Bang Sue will be open every day from 9 am to 4 pm between now and Songkran. It will be closed on April 6 for the Chakri Memorial Day holiday and again during the Songkran holiday. According to the Bangkok Post report, the centre re-opens on April 18." https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/bang-sue-offering-walk-in-vaccination-with-choice-of-vaccine-for-thais-and-foreigners

But at the same time, I doubt they're going start counting the ATK positive only cases as "official" cases. So, it beomes a case of "don't test, don't count" -- which fits well into the government theme of let's just call the whole thing endemic.

Fear or reality? "Newly reported official COVID cases rose again on Thursday to 22,984, their highest number in the past six days, while new COVID deaths (74) and serious COVID cases in hospital (1,238) both continued their steady upward climb to again set new highs for the year."

Newly reported official COVID cases rose again on Thursday to 22,984, their highest number in the past six days, while new COVID deaths (74) and serious COVID cases in hospital (1,238) both continued their steady upward climb to again set new highs for the year. Daily COVID deaths now are running six times the level at the start of the year. Both serious COVID hospitalizations and patients requiring intubation to breathe, who also reached a new yearly high of 420, both have more than doubled since January. But probably the biggest surprise from Thursday's report by the Ministry of Public Health was a sudden and sharp increase in the number of unofficial COVID cases based on positive ATK tests, which skyrocketed to 49,494, up from 31,890 the day before, and also set a new high for the year. As a result of that, Thailand on Thursday also set another new record high for the year, with combined official and unofficial COVID cases hitting 72,478, blowing past the prior record this year of 65,756 set a week ago. The lone good news from Thursday's report is that Thailand continues to reduce its population of COVID cases in regular hospitals, despite the continuing rise in serious cases, as mild positive cases are encouraged to isolate at home or in other care settings. Hospitalizations dropped to 58,254, a number that has been falling daily for the past week and is well off this year's high of 85,075. https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/?dashboard=main For added context, during the peak of the Delta wave last fall, Thailand's daily COVID case count topped out at 23,418, but the numbers of serious hospital cases and intubated patients peaked above 5,600 and 1,100 respectively, and daily deaths topped 300 for a brief period.

But the U.S. right now still has a much higher per capita rate of COVID deaths than Thailand, at least according to the official stats: Source link

Thailand right now has a higher per capita rate of official new COVID cases than the U.S.: Source link

COVID deaths and cases in the U.S. have come down from their recent peaks, but they're hardly doing well or even "normal." U.S. far from normal with Covid deaths 10 times higher than seasonal respiratory viruses, report says Two dozen scientists, doctors and public health experts, in a 136-page report, said Covid is still causing an “intolerable” level of death that’s far higher than other viruses such as the flu. ... In years past, as many as 1,150 people died weekly from respiratory viruses like flu and RSV without the implementation emergency mitigation measures. However, Covid’s death toll remains about 10 times higher with 12,000 people succumbing to the virus some weeks, according to the report. (more) https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/07/us-far-from-normal-with-covid-deaths-10-times-higher-than-flu-rsv-report.html

Newly reported official COVID cases rebounded to 22,073 on Wednesday, their highest level of the past four days and an increase of more than 3,100, while new deaths remained at a yearly record high of 69 for the second day and serious hospitalizations set a new record high for the year at 1,200. Wednesday's update by the Ministry of Public Health erased daily declines in official cases, unofficial ATK positive cases and the combined tally of the two that had occurred since last Friday and Saturday, though current official case levels remained well below their Feb. 26 peak for the year of 25,615. https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/?dashboard=main For added context, during the peak of the Delta wave last fall, Thailand's daily COVID case count topped out at 23,418, but the numbers of serious hospital cases and intubated patients peaked above 5,600 and 1,100 respectively, and daily deaths topped 300 for a brief period.