TallGuyJohninBKK

Re Fossil Future and its author Alex Epstein: "... he pals around with conspiracy theorists like Lauren Boebert, Dennis Prager, Scott Adams, and Candace Owens. By the way, as much as Epstein respects the Koch brothers, his ideology would never be influenced by their dark money network, even though he’s worked for decades at multiple institutions financially supported by the oil and policy magnates. Plus, he wants to debate opponents in good faith and is opposed to “ad hominem” attacks, which is why he refers to climate-concerned politicians as “fascists” and “monsters” while mobilizing his supporters to demand the termination of journalists who perform factual analyses of his oeuvre." https://slate.com/technology/2022/05/alex-epstein-fossil-future-climate-change-argument.html

Though that too, should it occur in the future, would also be from a man-made cause -- the war in Ukraine and the resulting disruptions to normal energy supplies. Climate change and global warning isn't the only kind of man-made cause of death, destruction and deprivation.

The causes of science denial and how to combat it 11 Dec 2021 ... ...the story of science denial starts in the 1950s with the tobacco industry’s campaign to obfuscate the causal link between smoking and cancer. One executive was quoted saying “doubt is our product” and that approach has become a blueprint for science denial, including climate change scepticism, ever since. McIntyre cites a 2018 US poll in which only 29% of respondents believed that climate change is anthropomorphic. He contrasts this with an account of a trip to the Maldives, where the effects of climate change are already clear to see. “Flat-Earthers may have seemed harmless but this kind of science denial could kill us,” he says." (more) https://physicsworld.com/a/the-causes-of-science-denial-and-how-to-combat-it/

From mid-July: 'Apocalypse': Hundreds dead as extreme heat wave broils Europe; UK could break record "An extreme heat wave that meteorologists call an "apocalypse" broiled much of Europe and the United Kingdom on Monday, and hundreds of people died because of record high temperatures and ferocious wildfires. At least 748 heat-related deaths have been reported in the heat wave in Spain and neighboring Portugal, where temperatures reached 117 degrees this month. ... “Climate change is driving this heat wave, just as it is driving every heat wave now," said Friederike Otto, a scientist at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College in London." (more) https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2022/07/18/extreme-heat-wave-europe-uk/10087274002/

And on that point: 40°C heatwave may have killed 1000 people in England and Wales First estimate of extreme heat's impact suggests that more than half of the deaths are expected to have been in people aged 85 and older "About a thousand extra people are estimated to have died during the recent three-day UK heatwave, in the first snap analysis of the human toll of record-breaking temperatures. At least 10 people drowned during the heat, which passed the milestone of 40°C in some areas, but a provisional number has now been put on the wider number of deaths linked to the extreme weather. Antonio Gasparrini at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine estimates that 948 people died in England and Wales because of the sweltering conditions between 17 and 19 July." (more) https://www.newscientist.com/article/2331349-40c-heatwave-may-have-killed-1000-people-in-england-and-wales/ New Scientist PRO-SCIENCE Overall, we rate New Scientist Pro-Science and Very High for factual reporting due to strong sourcing and a clean fact check record. https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/new-scientist/

The Effects of Climate Change The effects of human-caused global warming are happening now, are irreversible on the timescale of people alive today, and will worsen in the decades to come. "Takeaways We already see effects scientists predicted, such as the loss of sea ice, melting glaciers and ice sheets, sea level rise, and more intense heat waves. Scientists predict global temperature increases from human-made greenhouse gases will continue. Severe weather damage will also increase and intensify." ... "Taken as a whole, the range of published evidence indicates that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant and to increase over time." - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/

Fact check: What role does climate change play in extreme weather events? Attribution scientists are modeling floods, droughts and wildfires in real time to determine how big a part global heating plays in each event ... "That heating the planet by burning fossil fuels is broadly making extreme weather more frequent and intense is well established." ... "Without global heating, recent record temperatures of 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) in the United Kingdom would have been virtually impossible, as would the North American heat wave of 2021, according to WWA analyses. And climate change made deadly early heat waves in India and Pakistan this year 30 times more likely." (more) https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-what-role-does-climate-change-play-in-extreme-weather-events/a-62961131

"Scientific studies indicate that extreme weather events such as heat waves and large storms are likely to become more frequent or more intense with human-induced climate change." ... "More frequent and intense extreme heat events can increase illnesses and deaths, especially among vulnerable populations, and damage some crops. While increased precipitation can replenish water supplies and support agriculture, intense storms can damage property, cause loss of life and population displacement, and temporarily disrupt essential services such as transportation, telecommunications, energy, and water supplies." (more) https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/weather-climate

Climate Change Indicators: Weather and Climate "Rising global average temperature is associated with widespread changes in weather patterns. Scientific studies indicate that extreme weather events such as heat waves and large storms are likely to become more frequent or more intense with human-induced climate change." (more) https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/weather-climate

The 97% consensus on global warming What the science says... "97% of climate experts agree humans are causing global warming." ... "Authors of seven climate consensus studies — including Naomi Oreskes, Peter Doran, William Anderegg, Bart Verheggen, Ed Maibach, J. Stuart Carlton, and John Cook — co-authored a paper that should settle this question once and for all. The two key conclusions from the paper are: 1) Depending on exactly how you measure the expert consensus, it’s somewhere between 90% and 100% that agree humans are responsible for climate change, with most of our studies finding 97% consensus among publishing climate scientists." (more) https://skepticalscience.com/global-warming-scientific-consensus.htm Skeptical Science PRO-SCIENCE These sources consist of legitimate science or are evidence based through the use of credible scientific sourcing." "Overall, we rate Skeptical Science, Pro-Science based presenting credible peer-reviewed scientific evidence that supports the consensus on climate change." https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/skeptical-science/

"While the Medieval Warm Period saw unusually warm temperatures in some regions, globally the planet was cooler than current conditions." ... "One of the most often cited arguments of those skeptical of global warming is that the Medieval Warm Period (800-1400 AD) was as warm as or warmer than today." "Overall, our conclusions are: a) Globally temperatures are warmer than they have been during the last 2,000 years, and b) the causes of Medieval warming are not the same as those causing late 20th century warming." https://skepticalscience.com/medieval-warm-period.htm

Fact check: Scientific consensus says humans are dominant cause of climate change Scientific consensus While climate deniers suggest the causes of climate change are uncertain, scientists have concluded with a high degree of certainty that the dominant cause of warming is human-produced greenhouse gases produced by humans becoming trapped in the atmosphere. A synthesis of The Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment says it is “extremely likely” – meaning at least 95% – that unprecedented concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere driven by economic and population growth since the pre-industrial era are the dominant cause of warming. In short, humans are causing climate change." (more) https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/04/22/fact-check-scientific-consensus-humans-main-cause-climate-change/7336153002/

‘Unequivocal’ Evidence that Humans Cause Climate Change, Contrary to Posts of Old Video Posted on August 2, 2022 "A vast and growing body of scientific evidence shows that climate change is occurring and is largely caused by human activity, as we’ve written on multiple occasions. In 2007, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that the “evidence is now ‘unequivocal’ that humans are causing global warming,” the U.N. said in a press release at the time. The U.N. panel has repeated that finding ever since, most recently in an April report. “Widespread and rapid changes” have occurred as a result of climate change and “many changes … are irreversible” for at least centuries, the U.N. climate panel said in another report issued in 2021." (more) https://www.factcheck.org/2022/08/unequivocal-evidence-that-humans-cause-climate-change-contrary-to-posts-of-old-video/

On the other hand, I also recently bought a new Samsung mobile phone from the official Samsung store on the Lazada site. Package arrived in two days in perfect condition, brand new phone as advertised, worked perfectly. No headache, no hassle.

I think that's a GOOD recommendation that I try to follow, along with also, as another option, buying from "official" manufacturer sites on Lazada where the seller is the manufacturer, like Samsung, etc. If I'm going to buy anything on Lazada other than from Laz Mall or the official manufacturer sites on Lazada, I only do that if the private party seller has high customer satisfaction ratings and lots of predominantly positive reviews. I took a chance a while back ordering a hot water boiler from a third party seller that, when I opened it, looked like a factory second with clear evidence of shoddy manufacturing. Initiated the return process online with Lazada, and the ensuing debacle spread out over a couple weeks of time and numerous contacts with both Lazada and the seller. A lot of the problems and time ended up being Lazada's fault, because I had opted for them to arrange a courier pickup of the item that had been approved for return. And Lazada kept mistakenly assigning the return to a courier company's office that didn't service the central Bangkok area where I live. Thus the courier driver kept being a no-show for the pickup. It was a pretty frustrating, dismaying experience all in all... But in the end, after many calls and emails, a courier finally did come to pick up the return, and I got my money back about a month after the original purchase.

FATCA, I believe, applies both to Americans living in the U.S. and abroad if they have varying levels of foreign financial assets as defined in the law. The thresholds for FATCA reporting, though, are different for folks living in the U.S. (lower thresholds) vs those living abroad (higher thresholds). https://www.irs.gov/businesses/corporations/fatca-information-for-individuals Taxpayers living abroad. You must file a Form 8938 if you must file an income tax return and: You are married filing a joint income tax return and the total value of your specified foreign financial assets is more than $400,000 on the last day of the tax year or more than $600,000 at any time during the year. These thresholds apply even if only one spouse resides abroad. Married individuals who file a joint income tax return for the tax year will file a single Form 8938 that reports all of the specified foreign financial assets in which either spouse has an interest. You are not a married person filing a joint income tax return and the total value of your specified foreign financial assets is more than $200,000 on the last day of the tax year or more than $300,000 at any time during the year. Taxpayers living in the United States. You must file Form 8938 if you must file an income tax return and: You are unmarried and the total value of your specified foreign financial assets is more than $50,000 on the last day of the tax year or more than $75,000 at any time during the tax year You are married filing a joint income tax return and the total value of your specified foreign financial assets is more than $100,000 on the last day of the tax year or more than $150,000 at any time during the tax year. You are married filing separate income tax returns and the total value of your specified foreign financial assets is more than $50,000 on the last day of the tax year or more than $75,000 at any time during the tax year. For purposes of calculating the value of your specified foreign financial assets in applying this threshold, include one-half the value of any specified foreign financial asset jointly owned with your spouse. However, report the entire value on Form 8938 if you are required to file Form 8938. https://www.irs.gov/businesses/corporations/summary-of-fatca-reporting-for-us-taxpayers

More than two-thirds of the COVID deaths in the U.S. since the start of the pandemic have been in senior citizens. And it shouldn't surprise anyone that by the time people get into their 60s and beyond, they tend to have or have developed various health conditions. None of that takes away from the fact that too many of them ended up dying from COVID.

Not sure what point you're trying to argue... I already acknowledged that many deaths FROM COVID have involved people who had other health conditions. Hard for that not to be the case when obesity and high blood pressure are so common in society at large. No one's disputing that, AFAIK. But as for the deaths FROM COVID, those counted in the official COVID stats, they're still overwhelmingly FROM COVID... judged by the doctors involved to be because of COVID. Those people may have had other health conditions, but if they get listed as a COVID death, as a general rule, it's because it was COVID that ultimately caused their death... not the other conditions. That April 2020 USA Today article you're citing talks about all the various underlying health conditions, but nowhere does it claim those deaths were not BECAUSE of COVID.

The study you cite is pretty meaningless in the context of my prior mention about Thai deaths FROM COVID... Yes, lots of people who die from COVID have some other chronic condition(s). But, and this is the important part, those chronic conditions don't mean they were imminently going to die absent COVID.... Many, were it not for COVID, would have lived for years with their ongoing chronic conditions -- obesity, high blood pressure, etc etc. The main point on the issue here in Thailand is... the Thai Ministry of Public Health long ago significantly narrowed what they'll record as a death FROM COVID, leaving out all those who died WITH COVID from their official counts. So lately when the Thais report an official COVID death, there's little doubt that it occurred FROM COVID, regardless of the presence of comorbidities.

This disproves your mistaken point. The vaccines helped A LOT in saving people who otherwise would have died -- some 20 million people who are alive today because of them. COVID-19 vaccines saved an estimated 20 million lives in 1 year "COVID vaccines reduced the potential global death toll during the pandemic by almost two-thirds in their first year, saving an estimated 19.8 million lives, according to a mathematical modeling study yesterday in The Lancet Infectious Diseases. ... The scientists estimated that 18.1 million deaths would have occurred during the study period without vaccination. Of those, the model estimated that vaccination prevented 14.4 million deaths, or 79%. When they accounted for under-reporting, however, they found that COVID vaccination prevented an estimated 19.8 million deaths out of a total of 31.4 million potential deaths that would have occurred without vaccination—a reduction of 63%." (more) https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/06/covid-19-vaccines-saved-estimated-20-million-lives-1-year

As usual, when you don't have any credible sources or legitimate research to support your views, you end up defaulting to unfounded attacks on the legitimacy of credible public health research. The US CDC is hardly alone in their repeated findings that COVID vaccinations and boosters substantially reduce the risks of COVID death and serious illness compared to those who are unvaccinated. Another example not from the CDC (not that it matters): Hospitalization rate 23 times higher for unvaccinated vs. boosted during omicron "Data from Los Angeles County during the omicron surge showed that the COVID-19 hospitalization rate was 23 times higher among people who were unvaccinated compared with people who had received a COVID-19 vaccine series and booster. Moreover, the COVID-19 incidence rate was 3.6 times higher among the unvaccinated compared with people who were boosted, Phoebe Danza, MPH, supervising epidemiologist at the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, and colleagues reported in MMWR. ... Unvaccinated people had higher rates of hospitalization (2.8%), ICU admission (0.5%) and mechanical ventilation (0.2%) compared with vaccinated people with a booster (0.7%, 0.08% and 0.03%, respectively), the authors reported." https://www.healio.com/news/infectious-disease/20220201/hospitalization-rate-23-times-higher-for-unvaccinated-vs-boosted-during-omicron

Here's the "reality": In the U.S. in June 2022, people age 50 and older (among the highest risk folks) who were UNVACCINATED had a FOURTEEN times greater risk of dying from COVID than those who were fully vaccinated with two or more booster shots. Per the U.S. CDC: "People who were unvaccinated had a greater risk of testing positive for COVID-19 and a greater risk of dying from COVID-19 than people who were vaccinated overall (see below for the most recent rates)." Source link

Comprehensive studies based on large populations are more instructive that one-person anecdotes, and that's exactly what the U.S. CDC has been conducting throughout the pandemic... Their latest info on vaccinated vs unvaccinated is as follows: "People who were unvaccinated had a greater risk of testing positive for COVID-19 and a greater risk of dying from COVID-19 than people who were vaccinated overall (see below for the most recent rates). People who were vaccinated with a primary series and two additional or booster doses had lower death rates, followed by people who received one additional or booster dose, compared with those without an additional or booster dose. All vaccinated groups had lower risk of dying from COVID-19 compared with people who were unvaccinated." Specifically: Rate of COVID Deaths in unvaccinated people in the U.S. 5 years and older: In June 2022, the unvaccinated had a 2.1X greater risk of testing positive for COVID and a 5X greater risk of dying from COVID than people with at least full vaccination or better. And a more detailed version of the same graphic showing the actual per capita COVID death rates for the last week in June: Rate of COVID Deaths in unvaccinated people in the U.S. age 50 and older: Similarly among the more high risk population, those age 50 and older, the unvaccinated in June 2022 had a 14X greater risk of dying from COVID than those fully vaccinated with two or more booster shots. And a more detailed version of the same graphic showing the actual per capita COVID death rates for the last week in June: Source link:

I think your "May" experience cited above was back before they had the various COVID-related rule changes for incoming intl travelers that took effect at the beginning of July.

The upshot of your above cited study: "Conclusions and Relevance COVID-19 rebound occurred both after Paxlovid and Molnupiravir, especially in patients with underlying medical conditions. This indicates that COVID-19 rebound is not unique to Paxlovid and the risks were similar for Paxlovid and Molnupiravir. For both drugs the rates of COVID-19 rebound increased with time after treatments."