TallGuyJohninBKK

The data below shows the vaccination campaign in Israel DID work...though there has been a resurgence lately linked to the Delta variant. But look at where hospitalizations and per capita COVID deaths are in Israel right now versus where they were in the past. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths -------------------------------------------------------------- 'Vaccines Work, No Doubt About It': Israel’s Top COVID Expert Answers Your Questions In a Q&A with Haaretz readers, Prof. Ran Balicer explains what Israel needs to do better to stop the next variant from running rampant and says we should get used to the idea of COVID booster shots Aug. 5, 2021 Haaretz hosted Prof. Ran Balicer, the chairman of Israel’s expert panel on COVID-19, for a special Zoom briefing Wednesday on the delta variant’s spread in Israel and the impact of the country’s vaccination effort. Israel was lauded as a global leader in vaccinations and deemed “the first country in the world to get over COVID.” But in recent weeks, the delta variant has taken the country by storm and its spread has forced Israel’s new government to bring back old restrictions – and even float the idea of another national lockdown. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-vaccines-work-no-doubt-about-it-israel-s-top-covid-expert-answers-your-questions-1.10089311 --------------------------------------- "As of August 8, the ministry recorded 85.6 severe COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people among the unvaccinated over the age of 60, compared to 16.3 per 100,000 people among the fully vaccinated. This makes the unvaccinated elderly more than five times as likely to experience a severe case than their immunized counterparts. For those under the age of 60, the rate of severe illness among the unvaccinated stood at 1.4 cases per 100,000 people – 2.8 times more than the 0.5 per 100,000 among those who received two doses of the vaccine." https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/the-israeli-graphs-that-prove-covid-vaccines-are-working-1.10101640

Pretty amazing that Thailand today managed to report a new record high of 235 deaths for the day, while at the same time also reporting a new record high for critical condition COVID patients at 5,450, which was an increase of 232 over the prior day, even with all the new deaths!

With less than 7 percent of Thailand fully vaccinated thus far and only about 24% having received a single shot, Thailand has finally provided a new update after several weeks on how various provinces are faring with their vaccination efforts. Rarely does the government any more talk about the "fully vaccinated" rates for any place, and instead nowadays pretty much only talks (as with the first chart below) about how Phuket and Bangkok supposedly have reached the government's own stated 70% "vaccinated" rate goal -- even though in their recent terminology that means only one shot (shown by the blue segments) and doesn't confer as much protection as the full prescribed two-dose vaccination regimen (shown by the green segments). The upshot is that Phuket province reopened to international traveler arrivals under the "sandbox" scheme even though the province, according to the chart below, was and is well-short of the 70% rate for being fully vaccinated, standing at only 59%. Bangkok's fully vaccinated rate according to the government is around 15%, and everywhere else is less. Presumably, the other vaccination rates cited in the first chart below for the older population above age 60 and those with any of the seven designated chronic conditions are also the single-shot "vaccinated" rates as opposed to the "fully vaccinated" rates for those provinces. And then adding into the mix, we had Thailand's top virologist yesterday say that the goal of 70% vaccination, which originally meant 70% fully vaccinated, to achieve supposed "herd immunity" no longer has any great meaning in light of the emergence of the more contagious Delta variant, and he put the new fully vaccinated target figure instead at 85%! -- https://aseannow.com/topic/1226896-dr-yong-more-vaccine-needed-as-herd-immunity-increases-to-85-requirement/ https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/382956553322675/?type=3 https://www.facebook.com/fanmoph/photos/a.769525979740426/6651482398211392/?type=3 https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/382956203322710/?type=3

They've subsequently changed their policy on that. Now, the 150,000 doses that originally were supposed to be allocated just to foreign nationals are instead going to be shared with Thai students, diplomats and others who need a Pfizer vaccine to travel abroad. They (Thai students, diplomats, etc) originally were going to have their own separate Pfizer vaccine allocation, but that got removed and they were lumped into the foreign nationals allocation, thus effectively reducing the number available for foreign nationals.

The main U.S.-used vaccines all have current emergency use authorizations, with regular approvals due to start coming very soon: F.D.A. Aims to Give Final Approval to Pfizer Vaccine by Early Next Month Aug. 3, 2021 WASHINGTON — With a new surge of coronavirus infections ripping through much of the United States, the Food and Drug Administration has accelerated its timetable to fully approve Pfizer-BioNTech’s coronavirus vaccine, aiming to complete the process by the start of next month, people familiar with the effort said. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/03/us/politics/pfizer-vaccine-approval.html

See the US CDC's advice above re people who are immunocompromised. It's not quite as simple as just getting a vaccine.

Per the U.S. CDC re someone with this woman's situation: "If you have a condition or are taking medication that weakens your immune system, you may NOT be fully protected even if you are fully vaccinated. Talk to your healthcare provider." https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/international-travel-during-covid19.html

The portion you quote above is the CDC's advice to Americans considering outbound travel out of the U.S. The implication of the Fox news report, which is false, is that the U.S. is requiring FDA approved vaccinations for Americans who have been abroad to return to the U.S. There is no such requirement for returning Americans, at least for now. However, I can understand the woman's personal perspective on not feeling comfortable in returning via international travel right now, because of her immunocompromised condition. Per the same CDC website you quoted above. This is the current U.S. requirement for Americans returning from abroad: Before you arrive in the United States: All air passengers coming to the United States, including U.S. citizens and fully vaccinated people, are required to have a negative COVID-19 test result no more than 3 days before travel or documentation of recovery from COVID-19 in the past 3 months before they board a flight to the United States. After travel: Get tested with a viral test 3-5 days after travel. Self-monitor for COVID-19 symptoms; isolate and get tested if you develop symptoms. Follow all state and local recommendations or requirements after travel. And further: Recommendations For Unvaccinated People If you are not fully vaccinated and must travel, take the following steps to protect yourself and others from COVID-19: [etc etc.] and "If you have a condition or are taking medication that weakens your immune system, you may NOT be fully protected even if you are fully vaccinated. Talk to your healthcare provider. Even after vaccination, you may need to continue taking all precautions."

I can't think of any place, or on any significant indicator, where the Sinovac vaccine has outperformed the mRNA vaccines like Pfizer and Moderna. Except, I guess, as an income source to the Chinese company that produces it... That might be the sole advantage it has...for the Chinese company, of course.

And in the meantime, the government as of yesterday has already doled out more than 56,000 doses of the U.S. donated Pfizer vaccines, and less than one-third of those have been third-shot booster shots for medical personnel. I don't think there's been any public accounting of how many of those Pfizer doses given thus far have been to foreign nationals, but I'd bet the number, if any, is exceedingly small. Hopefully that will begin to change in the days ahead. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/382956373322693/?type=3

Here's one good indicator: 24 of the 54 new COVID deaths reported for Bangkok province on Monday occurred at home instead of in hospitals. That pretty much tells you what's going on.

Just an update on the Pfizer situation. Today, the govt issued a graphic that shows more than 83,000 Pfizer doses had been given as of yesterday. And less than half of those were 3rd dose booster shots (which somewhat contradicts the NBT news release link I posted above): https://www.facebook.com/fanmoph/photos/a.769525979740426/6651482398211392/?type=3

That's a bit of a strange answer re the Pfizer vaccines donated by the U.S., considering that the government as of today had already given thousands of doses of Pfizer already, presumably mostly to medical personnel as booster shots, including 2,000+ just yesterday in Bangkok. They don't seem to be waiting/testing for them, having started publicly reporting giving Pfizer vaccinations at least as of Aug. 5. Heck, even the Thai Army guy (now said to be a medic) out in the boonies was in the news today for having received his Pfizer vaccine. "Thailand’s Department of Disease Control (DDC) has announced that more than 57,000 medical professionals, who had previously received two jabs of the Sinovac vaccine, were given a dose of Pfizer vaccine to boost their immunity between August 4th and 7th." https://www.facebook.com/nbtworld/posts/10158190886042050

I'd feel better about that, were it not for the fact that the number of critical condition COVID patients nationwide set a new record high again on Monday, with 5,218 critical cases and the third consecutive day above 5,000.

Ooopppsssss!!!! BTW, has anyone else noticed lately, when the government types start talking about that original idea of a 70% vaccinations rate, lately they seem to be talking about a 1 shot portion as opposed to the original 2 shot/full vaccination notion. Lately, they were talking about the vaccination rate for Bangkok supposedly reaching about 70%, but that was the ONE shot portion, not the two shot portion being far less, somewhere in the mid teens as of the last public report I saw toward the end of July. Wait till the end of the year, and let's see what vaccination rate figure the government will be talking about then. I betcha it won't be the two-shot, full vaccination rate.

24 of the reported 54 deaths reported today for Bangkok province were deaths at home, not in hospitals.

The above info means Thailand currently is in the middle of the pack among ASEAN countries in terms of the share of its residents having received at least one shot, but is toward the bottom of the pack among those same countries based on its current share of full two-shot vaccinations (the green segment of the graphs below): https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/382808390004158/?type=3

The government had slightly different, but similar, numbers in their own graphic on Monday: Thailand wide: --76.1% of the population has received no vaccinations --23.9% of the population has received a single dose --6.7% of the population has received two doses https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/382808346670829/?type=3

MoPH graphic today says the positivity rate of antigen testing kit results in Bangkok, which has ranged almost up to 20% on Aug. 2 and 5, is currently running just under 8% for the latest day's results: https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/382807746670889/?type=3

Another couple of graphics today from MoPH on COVID hospitalizations in the BKK region (BKK plus five adjoining provinces): The number of COVID patients hospitalized in the region has increased from 30,631 to 37,759 during the past month. And if you look at the light blue line, new admissions have been on a downward trend in recent days, but the graph doesn't explain why (lack of available beds or something else). But the following graph gives a clue to the answer to that: The government is reporting that there still is a backlog of 2,093 COVID patients needing hospitalization as of yesterday (the right portion of the graph below), including 100 with severe symptoms, and 77 of those having waited more than one day (the red line segments). The left portion of the chart below, though, says that backlog number has declined from 5,668 as of July 24, though the unserved severe symptoms group (then 87/57) has instead increased over the past two-plus weeks. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/382807526670911/?type=3 I believe, but the chart doesn't say, that a lot of the improvement in the backlog of COVID cases has been the government's recent policy of instead referring COVID cases to home isolation. In separate graphs today, they posted a graph appearing to say there are are more than 45,000+ people currently in home isolation in the Bangkok region, and that they supposedly have the capacity to put up to 100,000 people in home isolation. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/382807633337567/?type=3

That 15% positivity rate on outreach COVID testing is Bangkok is a cumulative rate, since the beginning of their outreach testing in BKK.... which is VERY high. It would be very/more interesting if they'd publicly provide the same info on the CURRENT testing results/rates they're getting. All I can say is, I believe that rate has been gradually going up over time. I wanna say it was hovering around the 12% range for quite a long time. So that's at least some indicator that things aren't likely getting any better with recent results.

And the other issue, of course, is lately how many of the actual real COVID cases are not getting officially reported and instead shunted off into the "probable case" category in home isolation based on antigen testing, and then no followup RT-PCR tests to confirm. It's worth noting that in today's report, almost half of all the new COVID deaths reported in Bangkok (24 out of 54 deaths) occurred at home instead of in hospitals. That's pretty shocking! https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/382806820004315/?type=3

MoPH today had a couple of updated charts on the COVID hospital beds situation in Bangkok and its 5 adjoining provinces, as follows: The last time they posted a chart like this in late July, the combined number of hospitalized patients with moderate to severe symptoms (the red and yellow segments combined) was a combined 22% of all COVID hospitalizations. In the latest chart below, that combined share has now risen to almost 26%, with almost all of that increase coming in the moderate symptoms group. The mild symptoms group (the light green line) fell from 55% to just under 51%. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/382807440004253/?type=3 July 25 prior version:

Cases in Bangkok have been on a downward trend in recent days... But they also were before (as noted by the red circles I added to the graph), prior to reaching new record highs in a resurgence last week that peaked at 4,700 new cases just last Friday, followed by the weekend fall-off. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/382807200004277/?type=3 https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/382807113337619/?type=3 '

I'm not a fortune teller... I don't know what's going to happen in the future. But I can look at the recent past, and see we've had repeated temporary dips in daily cases (as noted by the red circles I've added to the MoPH graph), and each time, those dips thus far have been followed by subsequent increases to new highs.... Will this latest pause be any different? https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/382807010004296/?type=3 https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/382806963337634/?type=3