TallGuyJohninBKK

Indeed, that should have been the message for the Thai govt when it came to acquiring better vaccines -- Stop Playing Games. For months, the government deliberately blocked and impeded private hospitals here from acquiring mRNA vaccines that they could have acquired. And similarly, the government was slow to pursue mRNA vaccines themselves... Who knows why? Because they would be imported not domestic? Because they didn't understand or trust the new technology? Because the mRNA acquisitions were gonna step on the local AZ franchise with major mojo? Because the mRNA vaccines were gonna cost more? Because they preferred to cast their lot with brother China? All of the above? Bottom line is....mRNA vaccines for Thai people didn't start arriving here in quantity until nearly a year after they were first approved elsewhere, and that initially was because of the U.S. government's initial 1 mn+ dose donation of the Pfizer vaccine, and later the private hospitals' Moderna purchase that the government was finally shamed into accepting... They could have done better, but they didn't.

That's a calculation based on death risk for the entire population, including kids, etc... Look at the age group of a lot of AN forum readers (60+), and the odds suddenly get a lot worse. Look at yesterday's COVID deaths report from the MoPH -- 78% were age 60 and above. Average age of the fatalities -- 71. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/456587745959555/?type=3

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7037e1.htm

There are numerous study and trial reports that have been published assessing various vaccine efficacy rates in different places at different points in time. There also is the efficacy data that the WHO listed for each vaccine when they won WHO initial approval. By and large, the available data shows that Moderna generally has the highest efficacy rates, followed by Pfizer, then AZ, followed by Sinopharm and Sinovac. Although, there's very limited data on how Sinovac fares against the Delta variant specifically, because the manufacturer has not released any broad data re Delta efficacy that could be peer reviewed. The well-respected Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington has tracked all the available data on the various vaccines, and compiled a composite estimate of the efficacy rates for the various vaccines, as follows: http://www.healthdata.org/covid/covid-19-vaccine-efficacy-summary Swedish researchers just last month published a study on the efficacy of the Moderna, Pfizer and AZ vaccines used in their country during 2021 against symptomatic infection that had the same efficacy ranking for those top 3: Moderna, then Pfizer, then AZ. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3949410 And then the WHO's original findings on Sinovac in mid 2021, which was based on prior clinical trial data that predated the emergence of the Delta variant, and also didn't cover many elderly participants, which limited the value of the data: https://www.who.int/news/item/01-06-2021-who-validates-sinovac-covid-19-vaccine-for-emergency-use-and-issues-interim-policy-recommendations Translation: because the clinical trial data for Sinovac showed such a poor overall efficacy in preventing symptomatic infection, the WHO accepted and re-reported their 100% rate against hospitalization, even while admitting the trials involved had "few" elderly participants, the group most likely to suffer severe COVID illness!

I've never said, and the available facts don't support the notion, that the Sinovac vaccine doesn't work at all. All I've said, and still say, is the available scientific evidence and research all along has showed that the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines do a BETTER job than Sinovac at both preventing infections and preventing serious COVID illness and death. And similarly, that the two mRNA vaccines also perform better than the AstraZeneca vaccine, which also outperforms Sinovac. If folks are going to get vaccinated for COVID, which they definitely should, I think most people would reasonably want the best available protection/vaccine they can get!

You seem to be assuming that those 600+ cases announced by the government were the ENTIRETY of all the double Sinovac doses medical workers who became infected, and that the entire population was in fact tested. I don't believe that was the case. It was just a snapshot of info and details announced by the government at one point time, not necessarily a complete accounting. But either way, the government's actions then and now tell the story. When the medical workers began coming down with COVID and getting ill and in some cases dying, the government didn't opt to do a booster campaign of more Sinovac doses. They consciously chose to do booster doses of AZ and Pfizer. And, now as of this month, they seem to have pivoted again toward having Pfizer and Moderna doses be among the main doses available to the public for the currently unvaccinated -- not Sinovac as the general rule. So the truth is, it only took them almost ONE year after the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were approved by the U.S. and the WHO -- whose data clearly showed them as being the most effective -- before the Thai government was pulled kicking and screaming into finally making those two among the mainstay vaccines for the country.

My Thai wife just recently flew domestically from upcountry back to Bangkok. No one asked or cared about her vax status, and there wasn't even any testing regimen either on her departing flight or upon arriving back to the BKK airport. However, that's not to say that some places somewhere, as cited above, may well be checking for vax status.

What to know about the omicron variant of the coronavirus Omicron has sparked alarm among epidemiologists worried the new variant’s mutations could make it more transmissible. Scientists are racing to learn more as new cases are confirmed. South Africa on Thursday confirmed that scientists there had detected a variant with a high number of mutations that could make it more transmissible and adept at evading the body’s immune defenses. On Friday, the World Health Organization labeled it a “variant of concern” and gave it a Greek letter designation: omicron. ... There is too little research to draw conclusions, with experts urging caution but not panic. Studies are underway to examine how vaccines hold up against the new variant, with some experts expressing initial optimism that they will offer protection. ... Though the sample size is small, Sanne said physicians have seen a higher rate of breakthrough infections among those previously vaccinated in South Africa. But he added that initial data indicates the vaccines are still proving effective, with the majority of hospitalizations being among those who hadn’t gotten immunized. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/11/26/faq-new-variant-omicron/

Two comments: 1. As the Reuters report above shows, the Sinovac vaccine didn't do a great job at preventing illness and death among vaccinated Thai medical workers. That's why, early on, the government moved to begin giving non Sinovac booster doses. 2. While it's certainly true ONE goal of vaccination is to prevent illness and death, the vaccines also are SUPPOSED to prevent or help prevent people from catching the virus in the first place. Because, if they don't catch it, they can't spread it to others. And the truth is, right now, even with Delta, the mRNA vaccines like Moderna and Pfizer start out with 90%+ protection in preventing infection. The problem is, recent studies are showing that infection protection tends to decline markedly after 4 - 6 months or more -- even while the protection against serious illness and death remains relatively high.

I was going to say... this guy really knows how to turn a national embarrassment into a positive: He says - yes, Thailand was ahead of many other nations in launching a third shot booster campaign (for its medical workers). What he doesn't say -- and the reason we HAD to do that was because we had given them all less effective Sinovac vaccine from China not used in major western countries, and to our surprise, they kept getting sick and some dying from COVID... Who would have guessed!!! https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/hundreds-thai-medical-workers-infected-despite-sinovac-vaccinations-2021-07-11/ Hundreds of Thai medical workers infected despite Sinovac vaccinations BANGKOK, July 11 (Reuters) - Thailand's health ministry said on Sunday more than 600 medical workers who received two doses of China's Sinovac vaccine (SVA.O) have been infected with COVID-19, as authorities weigh giving booster doses to raise immunity. Of the 677,348 medical personnel who received two doses of Sinovac, 618 became infected, health ministry data from April to July showed. A nurse has died and another medical worker is in critical condition. An expert panel has recommended a third dose to trigger immunity for medical workers who are at risk, senior health official Sopon Iamsirithawon, told a news briefing on Sunday.

See above....

This MoPH website, I believe, shows that up through today, there have been 1,087 officially recorded COVID deaths (shown below in dark gray) in the various NE provinces during the pandemic, and a total of 248,803 officially recorded COVID cases there (shown below in dark red). Also that only about 43% of the population there thus far have been fully vaccinated with two shots, and that the COVID testing positivity rate for the past week has been running about 5.5%. You can see the various NE provinces listed on the mini-map n the upper right portion of the graphic above. And, the 524 new cases number for the latest day shown in red in the graphic above matches the same number in the NE provinces chart I posted and translated earlier in this thread. The 487 count of so-called "walk-in" cases listed above in yellow also means that almost all of the new cases found in the NE region for the most recent day came from people seeking out their own medical care, and very few of the new cases were found from any kind of government outreach proactive testing program. https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/?dashboard=province But hey, I don't personally know any of those almost 1,100 NE region folks who have been officially listed as having died from COVID during the pandemic, so I guess that makes their deaths some kind of "non-issue." ????

The Thai government's case reporting for COVID is often lower for the weekend days, presumably because government officials are off work and not all the cases get processed into the system as quickly as during the weekdays. So I went back to last Friday and looked at the same NorthEast province report for Friday, Nov 26, which had an even higher total of 600+ COVID cases for that single day. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/454121899539473/?type=3 Meanwhile, last Friday, those same NE provinces reported a total of 5 official COVID deaths for the day -- 2 in Nakhon Ratchasima, and 1 each in Ubon Ratchathani, Khon Kaen and Amnat Charoen. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/454115496206780 I would suggest, all of the above is not a "non-issue" if it happens to be your family or friends that have suffered a COVID death or had a family member hospitalized because of it. But then again, I personally don't know any of those people... so....

As for supposed "non issue" COVID in the Northeast region, here's is the MoPH's daily report on official COVID cases there by province (which likely is an undercount from reality, since many people choose for varying reasons to not seek medical care and/or to get COVID tested): By my count, those below work out to a total of more than 500 confirmed COVID cases just in the NE region provinces just for the past day. But obviously, some folks posting here clearly don't know any of these positive cases, just like they don't know any of the daily COVID deaths there. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/455342799417383/?type=3 I don't think the Thai media outlets do an official EN translation of these daily province reports anymore, like they used to. So I'll chip in and do my best. Again, these are officially reported cases just for the most recent ONE day. --Nakhon Ratchasima -- 101 cases --Khon Kaen -- 100 cases --Udon Thani and Ubon Ratchathani - 74 cases each --RoiEt -- 35 cases --Kalasin -- 30 cases --Buriram and Sisaket -- 23 cases each --Mahasarakham -- 15 cases --Surin and Bueng Kan -- 13 cases each and then lesser numbers from there.

As I posted elsewhere, the UK study only tracked 3 months out, and likewise found declining levels of effectiveness in preventing infection... although better levels than in the Swedish study. And unfortunately, the UK study from August didn't evaluate protection against COVID hospitalization at all... only infection. Also, the Swedish study wasn't based on measuring antibody levels or anything like that. It was a straightforward comparison of the shares of vaccinated vs unvaccinated people from comparable groups who either did or did not come down with COVID infections at various points post full vaccination.

As for the present, MoPH today reports three new COVID deaths in the NE, out of 30 reported nationwide. One each in Mukdahan, Sisaket and Chaiyaphum provinces. https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/455348376083492 I'm guessing, somebody knew those souls who passed away from COVID in the past 24 hours in the NE, even if not folks posting here in this thread.

The data says otherwise, as regards your "Covid is a non-issue in rural Thailand" comment. Though it presumably IS a better situation now than it WAS a few months back, as illustrated by the info below: https://www.facebook.com/nbtworld/photos/a.10151714100817050/10158251639567050/?type=3 And regarding the daily numbers of COVID deaths in the NE earlier this fall:

It's one thing to traffic in misinformation. It's a totally different thing to recognize and be willing to consider legitimate scientific research that helps develop the evolving understanding of just how current COVID vaccines function, and what their shortcomings may be. From reading a lot of studies lately, there is a legitimate evolving understanding that the current vaccines DO have waning effectiveness against preventing infections once you get out 4, 5, 6 months past full vaccination. The details of those findings vary, but as Sheryl noted above, it's the real world case experiences public health officials are encounting and the results of these kinds of studies that have led toward more governments embracing the notion of booster shots for all being likely required. Last night, in a different thread, I did a recap and summary of the August UK Public Health findings on waning vaccine effectiveness, which had some findings not all that different that the Swedish study. Unfortunately, the UK study only tracked 3 months post vaccination, and didn't consider prevention against hospitalization at all. So very much more limited than the Swedish study. On the other hand, there also is a U.S. study out of Southern California from last month that also had similar findings to the Swedish study in terms of waning vaccine effectiveness against preventing infection. But it tracked participants out 6 months, and because it was the U.S., didn't have any info for AZ vaccinations at all. The good news there, however, was it found the Pfizer vaccine had a 90+% effectiveness against COVID hospitalizations even 6 months out -- which is a very much better result than the Swedish study's hospitalization effectiveness data. I did posts on both the UK and the U.S. studies, and they are located here: One of the issues addressed in the U.S. study above was to try to identify what factors have been leading to waning vaccine effectiveness in preventing infections -- the emergence of the Delta variant, or simply the passage of time since full vaccination. And, at least as I read their study, the authors basically concluded that the waning effectiveness was NOT so much due to the effects of Delta variant, and much more related to responses to the vaccines themselves over time. "Our variant-specific analysis suggests that reductions in BNT162b2 effectiveness over time are likely to be primarily due to waning vaccine effectiveness rather than the delta variant escaping vaccine protection given that effectiveness against delta variant infections was more than 90% within 1 month of full vaccination, reductions in effectiveness in infections by time since being fully vaccinated were observed irrespective of SARS-CoV-2 variant, and effectiveness against hospital admissions due to the delta variant was very high over the entire study period."

Up until mid September, Thai news outlet NBTWorld used to do a daily English translation of the daily COVID case counts by province and region, including for the NorthEast. This for Sept. 14 was the last version they posted prior to ceasing to do those translations: 875 for the NE is a pretty high number of official cases for just a one-day snapshot back in mid-September, though presumably the numbers would be considerably lower now, at least, those that are officially reported. I'm presuming, someone knew these 875 people and all those that came before and after them, even if not posters here on this thread. https://www.facebook.com/nbtworld/photos/a.10151714100817050/10158251639567050/?type=3 If you went a day earlier on Sept 13, the NE case count number was even higher.... and I could keep going and going for different dates. But the case count tallies for the NE back in that period of time are pretty clear and indisputable.

It seems it was you who broached the (what I've characterized as) "I don't know anyone personally" issue earlier in this thread: That's what I was responding to, when I commented on the 20,000+ COVID deaths in Thailand thus far amounting to 1 per 3500 people. Making the "I don't personally know anyone" argument pretty irrelevant, as I've said.

Another comparison regarding the longer term effectiveness of the AstraZeneca vaccine: The Swedish study above said the AZ vaccine's effectiveness at preventing COVID infection for the period 2 to 4 months after full vaccination was only 41%, and showed no benefit beyond 6 months. In August, researchers in the UK reported comparatively better results for the AZ vaccine in preventing COVID infection 3 months after full vaccination, saying its effectiveness was 61% (and 75% for the Pfizer vaccine). But their work didn't provide any VE data for either vaccine beyond the 3 months point. "Based on more than three million nose and throat swabs taken across Britain, the Oxford University study found that 90 days after a second shot of the Pfizer or Astrazeneca vaccine, their efficacy in preventing infections had slipped to 75% and 61% respectively. "That was down from 85% and 68%, respectively, seen two weeks after a second dose. The decline in efficacy was more pronounced among those aged 35 years and older than those below that age." ... "The researchers would not project how much more the protection would drop over time, but suggested that the efficacy of the two vaccines studied would converge within 4-5 months after the second shot." Nothing in this report on how either vaccine fared over time in preventing COVID hospitalizations. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/british-study-shows-covid-19-vaccine-efficacy-wanes-under-delta-2021-08-18/ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02261-8

Some additional data points on this issue.... The Swedish study above says the Pfizer vaccine's effectiveness at preventing symptomatic infection declines to 47% once people are four to six months after full vaccination. This study from the U.S., posted last month, also looked at the Pfizer vaccine's effectiveness at preventing infection from 4 to 6 months after full vaccination. The U.S. study found almost identical results for the Pfizer vaccine to the Swedish study! Effectiveness of mRNA BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine up to 6 months in a large integrated health system in the USA: a retrospective cohort study Published:October 04, 2021 "In this retrospective cohort study, we analysed electronic health records of individuals (≥12 years) who were members of the health-care organisation Kaiser Permanente Southern California (CA, USA), to assess BNT162b2 vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-related hospital admissions for up to 6 months. ... "Effectiveness against infections [calculated for all COVID variants] declined from 88% (95% CI 86–89) during the first month after full vaccination to 47% (43–51) after 5 months." ... "Individuals aged 65 years and older had a vaccine effectiveness of 80% (95% CI 73–85) within 1 month after being fully vaccinated, decreasing to 43% (30–54; p<0·0001) at 5 months after full vaccination ... Among sequenced infections, vaccine effectiveness against infections of the delta variant was high during the first month after full vaccination (93% [95% CI 85–97]) but declined to 53% [39–65] after 4 months." But unlike the Swedish study, the U.S. study also examined the Pfizer vaccine's specific ability to prevent COVID hospitalization up to 6 months after full vaccination, and there the results were much better: "Vaccine effectiveness against hospital admissions for infections with the delta variant for all ages was high overall (93% [95% CI 84–96]) up to 6 months." Though those age 65 and above had a somewhat lower rate. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02183-8/fulltext The authors here also state that the evidence of declining vaccine effectiveness at preventing infection over longer time periods also argues in favor of using booster doses to restore early post vaccination protection levels.

That type of chat was never part of her vocabulary. Thai public school librarians don't generally speak that way.

That was pretty much my point. In a country of 70+ million people, the "I don't know anyone who" line seems pretty meaningless in discussing such things. Thailand's 20,000+ COVID deaths thus far work out to about 1 person dying from COVID out of every 3,500 or so residents on average. Dunno about others here, but my social circle doesn't get anywhere close to 3,500 people in Thailand, so hardly surprising that I don't happen to know any of them personally. But, that irrelevant detail shouldn't in any way be used to minimize the fact that 20,000+ people have died of COVID in Thailand thus far. Or to try to slyly intimate that maybe those deaths didn't really all occur because, after all, "I don't know anyone who..."

I'm not vouching for the accuracy of the Swedish study... But it was done using national government health system data, and authored by academics who argue it bolsters the case for better use of booster shots. So, I'm not about to dismiss their findings out of hand as some kind of anti-vax charade. And their findings regarding the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines match up pretty well with what's been previously reported for those. Most of the other vaccine followup research that's been done has been fairly limited in the time spans for tracking cases post vaccination. So I think the Swedish study is looking at vaccine effectiveness results going out for a longer period of time post vaccination.