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Everything posted by TallGuyJohninBKK
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Regarding Redfield and his opinions about the origins of COVID, many others in the field disagree. What does the science say about the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic? February 28, 2023 ... But at the end of the day, the origin of the pandemic is also a scientific question. Virologists who study pandemic origins are much less divided than the U.S. intelligence community. They say there is "very convincing" data and "overwhelming evidence" pointing to an animal origin. In particular, scientists published two extensive, peer-reviewed papers in Science in July 2022, offering the strongest evidence to date that the COVID-19 pandemic originated in animals at a market in Wuhan, China. Specifically, they conclude that the coronavirus most likely jumped from a caged wild animal into people at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, where a huge COVID-19 outbreak began in December 2019. Virologist Angela Rasmussen, who contributed to one of the Science papers, says the DOE's "low confident" conclusion doesn't "negate the affirmative evidence for zoonotic [or animal] origin nor do they add any new information in support of lab origin." https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2023/02/28/1160162845/what-does-the-science-say-about-the-origin-of-the-sars-cov-2-pandemic
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Inside Trump’s coronavirus meltdown... May 14 2020 ... "Here again, though, Trump’s stamp is clear. It was Trump who chose Robert Redfield to head the CDC in spite of widespread warnings about the former military officer’s controversial record. Redfield led the Pentagon’s response to HIV-Aids in the 1980s. It involved isolating suspected soldiers in so-called HIV Hotels. Many who tested positive were dishonourably discharged. Some committed suicide. A devout catholic, Redfield saw Aids as the product of an immoral society. For many years, he championed a much-hyped remedy that was discredited in tests. That debacle led to his removal from the job in 1994. ... “Redfield is about the worst person you could think of to be heading the CDC at this time,” says Laurie Garrett, a Pulitzer Prize-winning science journalist who has reported on epidemics. “He lets his prejudices interfere with the science, which you cannot afford during a pandemic.” https://www.ft.com/content/97dc7de6-940b-11ea-abcd-371e24b679ed
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You know full-well what "excess deaths" are -- deaths in the population at large above and beyond those that would have been expected in the absence of the COVID pandemic. Excess deaths are this below, the majority of them being people who actually died from COVID itself, with vaccine-related deaths vanishingly small in comparison. Source: or this: The true toll Covid’s confirmed death toll — more than seven million people worldwide — is horrific on its own, and the true toll is much worse. The Economist magazine keeps a running estimate of excess deaths, defined as the number of deaths above what was expected from pre-Covid trends. The global total is approaching 30 million. This number includes both confirmed Covid deaths and undiagnosed ones, which have been common in poorer countries. It includes deaths caused by pandemic disruptions, such as missed doctor appointments that might have prevented other diseases. The isolation of the pandemic also caused a surge of social ills in the U.S., including increases in deaths from alcohol, drugs, vehicle crashes and murders." https://archive.ph/niVyc#selection-4443.0-4463.400 And yes, numerous studies, all of them undisputed AFAIK (not involving dodgy / discredited or disputed research or authors like some cited in the OP study) have found that COVID vaccines do not create excess deaths in the population at large. COVID-19 Vaccines "Vaccines are the most effective way to prevent infectious diseases and they save millions of lives worldwide. Like all medicines, vaccines can cause side effects. Most of these are mild and short-term, and not everyone gets them." https://coronavirus-yellowcard.mhra.gov.uk/ And research such as this: A safety study evaluating non-COVID-19 mortality risk following COVID-19 vaccination 16 January 2023 In this study of more than 6 million recipients of COVID-19 vaccines and their unvaccinated comparators, we found that recipients of BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, and Ad26.COV2.S vaccines had lower non-COVID-19 mortality risk than their comparator groups." https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X22015614?via%3Dihub
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"The definition of “gain of function” covers both general research and especially risky experiments to “enhance” the ability of potentially pandemic pathogens to spread or cause severe disease in humans. Fauci stressed he [in rejecting Republicans' claims of lying] was only using the risky experiment definition, saying “it would be molecularly impossible” for the bat viruses studied with EcoHealth’s funds to be turned into the virus that caused the pandemic." [emphasis added] https://apnews.com/article/fauci-covid-pandemic-origin-congress-a66625482f25824476ee315484790230
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I must say, the authors of the OP-cited study appear to have been quite selective in what kinds of sources they decided to cite and use (the discredited Fraiman and the disputed Ioannidis, as examples), and yet somehow chose to entirely ignore the multitudes of non-disputed research that has found no risk of excess deaths from COVID vaccines, many of which I've posted and cited earlier in this thread. It's almost as if, they set out with some kind of predetermined agenda to promote...
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As previously posted above, the OP-cited study's references to Infection Fatality Rate data (footnote 38) are cited to research by the same Stanford University professor (John Ioannidis) who infamously predicted in 2020 that the U.S. would only have 10,000 COVID deaths, not the 1.2 million that ultimately occurred. Ioannidis in 2020: "If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths [emphasis added]. This sounds like a huge number, but it is buried within the noise of the estimate of deaths from “influenza-like illness.” https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ He missed the boat by a long ways on that one. He's a very famous professor and researcher who also has a reputation as being a COVID minimizer/denier: "Ioannidis was a prominent opponent of lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic, and he has been accused of promoting conspiracy theories concerning COVID-19 policies and public health and safety measures.[5][6][7][8] AND "Ioannidis widely promoted a study of which he had been co-author, "COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California", released as a preprint on April 17, 2020. It asserted that Santa Clara County's number of infections was between 50 and 85 times higher than the official count, putting the virus's fatality rate as low as 0.1% to 0.2%.[n 1][135][131] Ioannidis concluded from the study that the coronavirus is "not the apocalyptic problem we thought".[136] The message found favor with right-wing media outlets, but the paper drew criticism from a number of epidemiologists who said its testing was inaccurate and its methods were sloppy.[137][138][139]" And there's a lot more of the same relating to COVID issues in the longer writeup below. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Ioannidis
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Another non-partisan report on the OP cited study that -- unlike The Telegraph -- does NOT blame COVID vaccines as the cause of pandemic excess deaths. Excess death rates due to pandemic persisted in Western countries New COVID-19 excess death rate estimates from 47 countries show that rates remained high for 3 consecutive pandemic years. "Excess mortality has remained high in the Western World for three consecutive years, despite the implementation of COVID-19 containment measures and COVID-19 vaccines. This is unprecedented and raises serious concerns," the authors wrote. The study, published yesterday in BMJ Public Health, assessed people who died from any cause above and beyond what would normally be expected from January 2020 to December 2022 in 47 countries in Europe, North America, Australia and New Zealand. Death rates were compared to historical death data in each country from 2015 until 2019, and matched by both week and month. (more) https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/excess-death-rates-due-pandemic-persisted-western-countries
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The prevalance of flat-out misinformation about COVID vaccines is really sad.... More evidence: even the BMJ's own article on the OP cited study here is NOT blaming COVID vaccines -- unlike the report in The Telegraph. High excess death rates in the West for 3 years running since start of pandemic Excess death rates have remained high in the West for three years running since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, finds a data analysis of 47 countries published in the open access journal BMJ Public Health. This is despite the implementation of various containment measures and the availability of COVID-19 vaccines, giving rise to “serious cause for concern,” say the researchers who call on governments and policymakers to thoroughly investigate the underlying causes. ... It’s not clear how many of these excess deaths reflect the impact of COVID-19 infection, or the indirect effects of containment measures and vaccination programmes, say the researchers. (more) https://www.bmj.com/company/newsroom/high-excess-death-rates-in-the-west-for-3-years-running-since-start-of-pandemic/ But obviously The Telegraph knows, because they're blaming the vaccines -- notwithstanding the cited study not doing so.
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Interesting that the UK Daily Mail had a report at the end of 2023 on large numbers of excess deaths in the UK during the first half 2023 (covering a more recent period than the OP study here) especially among the middle aged... and put it down to unhealthy lifestyles and woes with the NHS -- and specifically NOT COVID vaccines. Revealed: Hundreds more middle-aged adults are dying every month since Covid ended 14 December 2023 Hundreds more middle-aged Brits are dying every month than expected, with experts blaming unhealthy lifestyles and the NHS crisis for the surge in excess deaths. An extra 28,000 deaths, or more than 1,000 a week, were logged across the UK in the first six months of the year, according to fresh analysis of official figures. ... Anti-vaxxers have claimed excess deaths are down to Covid jabs but scientists insist that the injections, which have saved tens of millions of lives globally, are not to blame. Writing in The Times, Professor Yvonne Doyle, former medical director of the now-defunct Public Health England (PHE), blamed 'an underlying pandemic of ill health'. (more) https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12862953/Hundreds-middle-aged-adults-dying-month-Covid-ended.html
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Another mainstream, non-partisan news report on the cited study that does NOT blame COVID vaccines as being a cause for pandemic excess deaths. And specifically points out that the study's authors don't fully detail the causes for the reported excess deaths. First 3 years of COVID-19 had 3M excess deaths in the West: study June 3, 2024 The first three years of the COVID-19 pandemic had more than three million excess deaths in Western countries, a new study says, raising “serious concerns.” The research published in the BMJ Public Health journal Monday showed that between January 1, 2020 and December 31, 2022, a total of 3,089,465 excess deaths were reported in 47 countries in the West, including Canada. ... What's behind the excess deaths? While the BMJ study did not specifically examine the causes of the persistently high excess deaths in the West during the pandemic [emphasis added], the authors said non-pharmaceutical interventions to curb COVID-19 spread had “adverse indirect effects,” such as limited access to healthcare, disrupted health programmes and mental health challenges “that increased morbidity and mortality from other causes.” (more) https://globalnews.ca/news/10541434/excess-deaths-western-countries-covid-pandemic-study/
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The Singapore Health Ministry is urging people to follow the science on this subject, so let's do some more of that -- another example of what the consensus of scientific research on this topic shows -- no increased risk of death from COVID vaccination: Effect of COVID-19 vaccination on mortality by COVID-19 and on mortality by other causes, the Netherlands, January 2021–January 2022 12 July 2023 "The risk of non-COVID-19 mortality was lower or similar in the 5 or 8 weeks following a first dose compared to no vaccination, as well as following a second dose compared to one dose and a booster compared to two doses, for all age and long-term care groups. ... Conclusion At the population level, COVID-19 vaccination greatly reduced the risk of COVID-19 mortality and no increased risk of death from other causes was observed. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X23006606?via%3Dihub AND COVID-19 Vaccination and Non–COVID-19 Mortality Risk — Seven Integrated Health Care Organizations, United States, December 14, 2020–July 31, 2021\ October 29, 2021 "During December 2020–July 2021, COVID-19 vaccine recipients had lower rates of non–COVID-19 mortality than did unvaccinated persons after adjusting for age, sex, race and ethnicity, and study site. What are the implications for public health practice? There is no increased risk for mortality among COVID-19 vaccine recipients. This finding reinforces the safety profile of currently approved COVID-19 vaccines in the United States." ... Discussion In a cohort of 6.4 million COVID-19 vaccinees and 4.6 million demographically similar unvaccinated persons, recipients of the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, or Janssen vaccines had lower non–COVID-19 mortality risk than did the unvaccinated comparison groups. There is no increased risk for mortality among COVID-19 vaccine recipients. This finding reinforces the safety profile of currently approved COVID-19 vaccines in the United States." https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7043e2.htm
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And the publicity over this may be behind the following report from the South China Morning Post, where the Singapore Health Ministry has flatly rejected claims of any connection between excess death rates and COVID vaccines. Singapore slams opposition claims linking Covid vaccines to excess deaths Singapore’s Health Ministry has rejected an opposition party’s calls for the suspension of Covid-19 vaccination, claiming high incidences of severe side effects. ... The health ministry said it categorically rejected the egregious and false claims, adding that people must “draw the right conclusions and follow the scientific evidence on the safety and effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines”. “The primary reason why Singapore recorded one of the lowest excess death rates in the world during the pandemic is because the majority of Singaporeans took the vaccines,” it said. (more) Source link:
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And meanwhile, we have more non-partisan reports on the same study that don't follow The Telegraph's unsupported claims. Yes there's concern about the high levels of excess deaths during the pandemic, but no blaming of COVID vaccines below in reporting on the study. Latest example: Study: High excess death rates in the West for 3 years running since start of pandemic despite containment and vaccines Excess death rates have remained high in the West for three years running since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, finds a data analysis of 47 countries published in BMJ Public Health. This is despite the implementation of various containment measures and the availability of COVID-19 vaccines, giving rise to "serious cause for concern," say the researchers, who call on governments and policymakers to thoroughly investigate the underlying causes. ... It's not clear how many of these excess deaths reflect the impact of COVID-19 infection, or the indirect effects of containment measures and vaccination programs, say the researchers [citing language from the news release issued about the study]. (more) https://medicalxpress.com/news/2024-06-high-excess-death-west-years.html
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The truth will out on this eventually regarding the unsupported nature of the claim made blaming COVID vaccines in The Telegraph's headline. But won't matter, as the anti-vax crowd got what they wanted, a headline to claim and use as a political/PR weapon. Most posters here probably have only seen the newspaper article's headline. Maybe some have read the whole newspaper article. I wonder how many here have actually read word-by-word the entire cited study as I have, several times over now. There's simply NO place in the cited study where they give any estimate or projection for what share or what number of excess deaths in the studied countries may have been related to COVID vaccines. NONE. For anyone here who actually has read the entire study that's the basis for The Telegraph's report, I challenge you to post here any text from the actual study providing any estimate or projection of the share of excess deaths related to vaccination. It's simply not there. (There is, just for the record, some discussion in the study about various potential vaccine adverse reactions... that as I've documented in earlier posts here, is based on a widely debunked study by an anti-vax doctor and on public database reports like VAERS in the U.S. where the sources clearly state that the reports themselves are no proof that vaccines were in fact the causes of the reported adverse reaction.)
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The hard-right Republicans in Congress have been calling for Dr. Fauci to be prosecuted (and now arrested) for years, and nothing's come of it, thus far, at least in the public domain. How far back? ------------------------------------ Rand Paul sends official criminal referral on Anthony Fauci to DOJ July 26, 2021 https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/564803-rand-paul-sends-official-criminal-referral-on/ ------------------------------------- Perhaps before they try to have Fauci arrested this latest time around, they ought to try to actually prove he's committed some crime, which thus far, they haven't been able to do, except in their own minds and rhetoric. For example: Per the Associated Press earlier this week: "A GOP-led subcommittee has spent over a year probing the nation’s response to the pandemic and whether U.S.-funded research in China may have played any role in how it started — yet found no evidence linking Fauci to wrongdoing." [emphasis added] ... Republicans repeated unproven accusations against the longtime National Institutes of Health scientist..." https://apnews.com/article/fauci-covid-pandemic-origin-congress-a66625482f25824476ee315484790230 Per the New York Times earlier this week: "And for all the hundreds of thousands of pages of documents and more than 100 hours of closed-door testimony that the panel reviewed, lawmakers produced nothing on Monday linking Dr. Fauci to the beginnings of the Covid outbreak in China...." https://archive.ph/Q2NKi Per subcommittee ranking member Raul Ruiz: Ruiz added that the evidence found that "Dr. Fauci did not fund research through the EcoHealth Alliance Grant that caused the Covid-19 pandemic, Dr. Fauci did not lie about gain of function research in Wuhan China, Dr. Fauci did not orchestrate a campaign to suppress the lab-leak theory." https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/anthony-fauci-covid-origins-hearing-06-03-24/index.html The Republicans, of course, have long claimed and are continuing to claim that Fauci lied to Congress about the so-called "gain of function" research that was done in China. But that hardly appears a clear or prosecutable proposition, given the following: As the AP reported earlier this week: "The definition of “gain of function” covers both general research and especially risky experiments to “enhance” the ability of potentially pandemic pathogens to spread or cause severe disease in humans. Fauci stressed he [in rejecting Republicans' claims of lying] was only using the risky experiment definition, saying “it would be molecularly impossible” for the bat viruses studied with EcoHealth’s funds to be turned into the virus that caused the pandemic." https://apnews.com/article/fauci-covid-pandemic-origin-congress-a66625482f25824476ee315484790230 And as the Washington Post previously reported back in 2021 on the same topic: "There is a split in the scientific community about what constitutes gain-of-function research." https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/10/29/repeated-claim-that-fauci-lied-congress-about-gain-of-function-research/ or https://archive.ph/WG6VE But now suddenly, with this latest report in the OP, at least one congressman suddenly seems to have switched gears to focus on the CDC's former 6-feet social distancing policy -- which Fauci didn't even draft and wasn't responsible for. In his testimony this week, Fauci clarified his prior somewhat halting comments on the topic to say he meant there had not been clinical trials done on the distancing policy, a time consuming process that likely couldn't have been done first amid the urgency of the outbreak of the pandemic. "Fauci sought to clarify on Monday that the 6-foot guidance came from the CDC and was based on droplet research, telling lawmakers: "It had little to do with me since I didn't make the recommendation and my saying 'there was no science behind it' meant there was no clinical trial behind that." https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/republicans-poised-grill-anthony-fauci-covid-19-response/story?id=110677611 In any event, the record shows that there in fact had been much research done on the issue of how far apart distances were optimal, as recounted in this 2020 report by the U.S. General Accounting Office: Science & Tech Spotlight: Social Distancing During Pandemics GAO-20-545SP Published: May 13, 2020. Publicly Released: May 13, 2020. "A CDC guideline based on historical studies of selected infections says that the area of highest risk is within 3 feet of an infected person. Some studies suggest a buffer of 6 feet may further reduce risk. Other studies examining droplet dispersion in sneezing and coughing found they can go more than 6 feet. Also, viral material may persist in the air within a room for up to 3 hours." https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-20-545sp In short, there was a lot of science and past deliberation behind the social distancing policy, hardly something that the CDC plucked out of thin air, and a policy that Fauci himself wasn't responsible for promulgating. Thus, all of the above hardly sounds like a winner for arrest and a successful, legitimate criminal prosecution. But it does make for a lot of political rhetoric.
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That's the public opinion one Thai doctor is expressing, after the Thai government has basically decided to cease spending any government funds to protect its citizens with COVID vaccinations. And note what Yong actually said in The Thaiger report was not "no need" for COVID vaccines. But instead, it starts out saying: "Most people do not need a booster against the latest strain of Covid-19, except for vulnerable groups and the unvaccinated [emphasis added]. And the Post's report, despite its headline, also includes the exception "except for vulnerable groups and the unvaccinated." What's the Thai government doing to protect the "vulnerable groups" from COVID -- the older folks, those with chronic health conditions (overweight, diabetes, respiratory problems, etc), pregnant women, etc... Right now, nothing at all. The U.S. public health agencies still recommend the updated COVID boosters for almost everyone. The U.K. government continues to recommend and run government paid COVID booster vaccine programs for the elderly and others at higher risk. Singapore continues to recommend COVID boosters to its at-risk groups, etc. Maybe Dr. Yong hasn't been reading the local news and Ministry of Public Health reports that show new weekly COVID hospitalizations here have more than tripled since mid-March, up above 1,800 per week right now. And serious condition COVID hospitalizations right now (738 as of last week) are at their highest level since fall 2022... Perhaps he might want to reconsider his opinion, or at least start paying attention to what the Thai MoPH is actually reporting. If COVID is actually so mild for everyone, then who's filling up all the Thai hospital beds, as reported below?
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The actual study title as previously posted above... no mention of COVID vaccines in the title of the research. If what the Telegraph reported was in fact a finding of the study, you'd think the study authors would have emphasized / explicitly stated that claim. But they didn't, as shown below. Their headline is nothing remotely the same as The Telegraph's headline, and both their headline and "Results" section are silent on the issue of causes. Results The total number of excess deaths in 47 countries of the Western World was 3 098 456 from 1 January 2020 until 31 December 2022. Excess mortality was documented in 41 countries (87%) in 2020, 42 countries (89%) in 2021 and 43 countries (91%) in 2022. In 2020, the year of the COVID-19 pandemic onset and implementation of containment measures, records present 1 033 122 excess deaths (P-score 11.4%). In 2021, the year in which both containment measures and COVID-19 vaccines were used to address virus spread and infection, the highest number of excess deaths was reported: 1 256 942 excess deaths (P-score 13.8%). In 2022, when most containment measures were lifted and COVID-19 vaccines were continued, preliminary data present 808 392 excess deaths (P-score 8.8%). https://bmjpublichealth.bmj.com/content/2/1/e000282
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And presumably, more months now of being left in limbo and doubt... and think of all the vast hours and thousands of posts here spent analyzing and debating the prior (and now perhaps discarded) tax changes that were floated... Yeesh! At this point, who knows where they'll end up and what kind of tax plan will ultimately be enacted, if any.
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I generally haven't expressed my personal opinions at all here, and I generally don't... Instead, I've posted credible information from credible, non-partisan sources backed up by weblinks showing the original sources, not to mention posting and quoting from the OP study itself, which, unlike The Telegraph, has no language actually blaming COVID vaccines for causing any specific number or share of excess deaths. Don't listen to me... Read the actual OP cited study. See what experts in the field have reported about the causes of excess deaths during the COVID era. See how the experts consistently report that COVID vaccination does NOT contribute to higher mortality rates, all cited and supported above. Read how the largest international study on COVID vaccine safety reported earlier this year that serious COVID vaccine side effects have been rare. Read the reports from the Associated Press, USA Today and others of how anti-vax folks have misrepresented and made false claims wrongly attributing deaths to COVID vaccines, etc etc... None of the above is cherry picking. It's the consistent findings of credible experts in the field, often repeated in multiple studies and findings over time.
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A Google search done as of Wednesday night -- COVID vaccine excess death content from the past 24 hours -- shows that the reporting about this study, and The Telegraph's unsupported version of it, has been mostly limited to a handful of well-known right-wing news sources... and none of the major mainstream media outlets or credible international news sources like the Associated Press, Reuters, Bloomberg, etc. There's clearly a reason for that. Source: A non-partisan source like Physician's Weekly / HealthDay News had a not-surprisingly vastly different article reporting the findings of the OP study here, not blaming COVID vaccines for contributing to global excess deaths, because in fact the cited study here doesn't: Excess Mortality Persisted in Western World From 2020 Through 2022 Jun 05, 2024 "TUESDAY, June 4, 2024 (HealthDay News) — Excess mortality persisted in 2020 through 2022 in the Western world, according to a study published online June 3 in BMJ Public Health. Saskia Mostert, M.D., from Amsterdam UMC, and colleagues explored excess mortality in the Western world from 2020 to 2022 using all-cause mortality reports abstracted from the “Our World in Data” database. Historical death data were used from 2015 to 2019, accounting for seasonal variation and year-to-year trends. ... “Excess mortality has remained high in the Western World for three consecutive years, despite the implementation of COVID-19 containment measures and COVID-19 vaccines,” the authors write. “This is unprecedented and raises serious concerns.” https://www.physiciansweekly.com/excess-mortality-persisted-in-western-world-from-2020-through-2022/ And just to say again as said before... saying COVID excess deaths occurred during the time of COVID and COVID vaccines isn't the same thing as blaming COVID vaccines as a cause. The "concern" they're explicitly, chiefly expressing is about the high levels of excess deaths during the 2020-2022 period, which is the explicit topic of the study.