spidermike007

4 hours ago, Logosone said:

Excellent post.

 

It would appear that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is exceedingly unlikely as China lacks the capabilities:

 

"In its 2019 report to Congress, the US Department of Defense said China -- which has one of the largest navies in Asia -- had at its command 37 amphibious transport docks and 22 smaller landing ships, as well as any civilian vessels Beijing could enlist.

 

That might be enough to occupy smaller islands, such as those in the South China Sea, but an amphibious assault on Taiwan would likely require a bigger arsenal -- and there is "no indication China is significantly expanding its landing ship force," the report said."

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/23/asia/taiwan-china-invasion-intl-hnk/index.html

 

If you think about it, China occupying Taiwan, even if successful, would result in China becoming a pariah state internationally. Yet Chinas entire policy of the silk road, securing international raw materials, all this requires a favourable international status.

 

It just doesn't make sense for China to invade. 

 

The chances of this ending in a humiliating failure for China are also huge. Taiwan would only need to sink 40% of the amphibious vessels, about 14 ships.

Never forget the "tin can" campaign in the PI. The US sent several small, poorly armed ships against the biggest and strongest of what Japan had to offer. Admiral Kurita, though he had the best ship in the fleet under him, turned out to be a coward, a terrible tactician, and a total loser. Afterwards, Japan took whatever remaining ships and soldiers they had, and sailed West.

However, even though the US army is alot more modern than it was back then, when you consider how badly the US has messed up the response to Covid, combined with the current situation there, and add in the fact that no matter how big and powerful their army might be, they have not won a war since WWII, not sure they are the best ally to have. Also, they have grown notoriously unreliable these days. 

I think you are right that China is all bluster right now. And they are hugely untested, with their new military. But, this is leading up to something. China wants to regain the supremacy they enjoyed over the seas as a major superpower, for nearly 1,000 years (about 925 years longer than the US, as of now) from about the 8th century, to the early to mid 18th century. 

3 minutes ago, CorpusChristie said:

You just know that if Trump confronts China over the Honk Kong issue  , people will accuse Trump of war mongering and trying to a start a war with China in order for him to win the next election .

   Remember the reaction when Trump confronted North Korea ?

Whatever Trump does or says , some people will just say he should have done the opposite and criticise him for it 

And there is perfectly good reason for that. He has engaged in absolutely abominable foreign policy, since day one. And now Pompeo? Talk about a BOB (bottom of the barrel) pick. 

And when was the last time we heard about police getting prosecuted, and sentenced to time in prison. Does it ever happen here? It does appear that police are above the law. Any and all laws. They know that. They know they have virtual immunity from the administration, which does everything in it's power to protect it's own, the cops, the army, the super wealthy, and the entire apparatus. So, do not even attempt to fool us. We are not buying low cost bridges today. 

Malaysia is still a hotspot, many areas have continued to allow mosque services, and Thailand must exercise extreme care in letting anyone in from Malaysia. In my opinion, anyone coming in through the southern border should be required to have mandatory Covid testing. It is the most dangerous border Thailand has. 

1 minute ago, robblok said:

Yes i remember the US having a moral authority and I used to believe them. It all stopped for me after the gulf war and not finding chemical weapons. Also their constant wars in the middle east and then let Europe take care of the refugees. 

 

I used to really respect the USA now i see it as a money grabbing country with a mental midget as a leader. (mind you I have no problem with Americans on a private level)

Well, as an American, I can say your view of the US is fairly accurate. And I feel the same way about Americans. A lot of good people, with good hearts. Alot of bad people too (mostly empty suited white men in my opinion), but on the whole the majority are quite decent. The Gulf war was an abomination. Cheney, Wolfowitz, Rumsfeld and Bush Jr. were so completely disingenuous about the whole thing, they deserve as little respect as we can possibly direct their way. They have collectively made the world an infinitely less safe place, with their Afghan and Iraqi interventions. And they not only put the US into a $7-10 trillion hole, they accomplished nothing, and if anything made the region less stable. If they were sincere, they would have been going after enemy number one and two. The Saudis, and the Pakistanis. But, all they could muster up was a fake war, against a fake enemy, who they assumed would easily fall, and 17 hapless years later, they are still trying to extricate themselves from the same mess countless other empires comprised of hubris and astonishing arrogance, have found themselves in. 

The promotion of democracy is an outdated model. People have to evolve on their own. You cannot force it upon them, especially not a from a nation that is practicing an incredibly flawed version of it, and has so many systemic and cultural problems of it's own. Guys like Trump like to gloss over the issues, and pretend that America is great. It is anything but great. Sure they are number one in Covid, and number one in civil unrest, at the moment. But great? Maybe great producers of cultural trash like reality TV. Maybe great producers of over bloated, theme park type, highly repetitive tent pole films, made for the Chinese audience, and 8-16 year olds at home. But a great nation? If they were great, that is in the rear view. There is no way to make the nation great again. It is an empire in decline, and there is no fixing that. You can slow it down, by embracing some progressive and intelligent policies. But, you cannot stop it. 

On 5/29/2020 at 7:27 PM, robblok said:

I doubt the USA or any other country will stand against China for Taiwan. There is no oil there or other things the US can use. Also its not an easy victory for the US (they would probably give up after losing too many people). Nuclear attack.. highly doubt it again. In the end Taiwan will just be Chinese.

 

I wish it were different but dont think anyone will help or is able to help. The Chinese have all the advantages.

They US is certainly not standing with Hong Kong are they? They can no longer be considered a trusted ally. Why would they stand up for Taiwan, unless they wanted war with China? What is really astonishing, is that the US used to have some moral authority, and would and could at least make a case for democracy, and the defense of it. How far they have fallen from that perch. Not only was there little to no defense of the Hong Kong protests, but now they are abandoning them completely. And with the stuff that is going on in the US right now, they can barely afford to lecture China about freedom.

And it seems the ever desperate leadership in China, wastes no opportunity to lecture others. They are hungry for power, more territory and will stop at nothing to achieve their goal of world supremacy. From the Chinese point of view, they are simply trying to re-establish their place in history. From the 8th to about the early to mid 18th century, China was a world superpower. 

I think young people who are on social media a lot are getting more real time info on police killings and they're not getting the watered down official versions that their parents are getting on the evening news (he didn't die from asphyxiation, he died from high blood pressure, etc). So if someone is not closely following the endless police violence then it may be hard for them to wrap their heads around the anger and frustration and youthful "let's mess stuff up" response. 
This brings up some interesting points about policing policy...

https://theintercept.com/2020/05/29/george-floyd-minneapolis-police-reform/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=The Intercept Newsletter

From a good friend in LA, who was out in the streets, participating in one of the many peaceful protests: I've been out to some,  friends have too. I think it's a lot of factors but young people are fed up, everyone is out of work,  anxious about getting evicted, not sure how they're going to pay bills,  etc, stir crazy from Covid, and they're watching the police and white supremacists murder black people on video around the country, from Amad in Georgia. The young paramedic (I think?) In Kentucky and  Floyd in Minnesota. It's the perfect recipe for an uprising. I just hope some positive things come of it. The US needs a good therapist lol! I understand people have a visceral response to the looting,  it's scary,  they don't like it. But compared to the big companies that got the majority of PPP money,  Trump's corporate tax write offs, the real looting is happening right under our noses.

11 minutes ago, lannarebirth said:

 the people I have seen creating the most destruction and fomenting the most fear and conflict were young White men, though some females too. Twitterwill give you a much better idea of what's going on than the mainstream news will. It may be that the revolution IS being televized.

Yes. Likely either disenfranchised young men, hired hands of the right, or just idiots with parents who tried too hard to be their "friends". Regardless once again Trump has failed dismally. Once again he was given a golden opportunity. And instead all this coward can do is threaten young Americans with vicious dogs, all the might of the national guard and the military and other nonsensical and potentially illegal actions. All this from the deferment king, who would wet his pants if he were ever in the line of fire.  

55 minutes ago, GinBoy2 said:

I've said this in many threads, but it's fanciful to believe international travel will rebound, let alone international tourist travel, at least from the West.

 

Working for an airline I see the domestic passenger loads, we're not an international station, but until you see domestic air travel bounce back, thats the leading indicator for international travel.

 

Then you have the financial impact. A lot of folks will have drained down their savings through this, and I sincerely doubt getting on a plane to Thailand for a vacation is high on their 'to do' list

You could not possibly be more spot on. The very market that Thailand targets and the only market it is able to attract (primarily lower to lower middle income Indians and Chinese, and to a smaller extent lower end Europeans) is the market that was hit the hardest by both the pandemic and the insane shutdown of the world's economies. 

The recovery will be long and painful. Anything but the stupid (totally speculative) V they are discussing. 

57 minutes ago, 19DL86 said:

The new mantra for TAT can read - Safe and "TRUSTED" Thailand, now. 555

Believe it or not they already changed it to "Amazing trusted Thailand"! Amazing was not enough. Was it the tens of thousands of elephants as far as the eye could see, the warm, gracious and welcome attitude of immigration, the pristine environment and clean air, or the world class transportation network?

22 hours ago, Eindhoven said:

 

Yes.

Smokers should not inconvenience non-smokers. On the street nor anywhere else.

If the idiots want to deliberately put poisonous smoke in their lungs, let them do it far away from those who don't.

So yes, it is reasonable. It also stops them being punched in the face or thrown off a baht bus when they refuse to put their cigarette out or get off the bus....

Yes, there were idiots who thought it was their right to be able to smoke on the songthaew.

As you know from the COVID-19 occurrence, people cannot be relied upon to do the right thing.

This way, there is no argument. Bravo! Excellent!

 

<snip>

 

 

What really bothers me even more, is why most smokers think they have the right to toss their cigarette butts wherever they want. It is trash. Put it somewhere other that anywhere you happen to be standing. Show some regard please.