I agree with everything you wrote.. I would say though that tourism numbers will rebound just fine, but how much social and economic damage will that come with..
As you say Thailand always 'wants' something but you dont hear what they wish to offer.. 'quality tourism' AKA rich people have a lot of great options, Thailands real market sector is a kind of high volume cheap excitement and more and more cheap arrivals combined with such corruption and mindsets of grab it all now are just trashing every island, every hotspot etc. You want to get 'quality tourists' you need to control rampant over development, have enforced planning rules and environmental policies, have a society that can stop wealthy and connected just doing what they want.. In short provide the connected, clean, quality infrastructure that multi millionaires want if they are going to consider buying and building mega money villas.